Probability,danger, and coercion

Young adults were shown hypothetical stimulus vignettes describing mental patients and were asked to judge (a) the probability that the patient would harm someone else, (b) whether or not the patient should be categorized as “dangerous,” and (c) whether coercion should be used to ensure treatment. Probability and dangerousness judgments were systematically related and were predictive of the judged necessity for coercion. However, judged probability was strongly dependent on the form of the response scale, suggesting that probability was not represented consistently and quantitatively in participants' minds. Study 2 replicated these findings with forensic clinicians as participants. These results underscore the importance of violence to others in mental health law and have important implications for the manner in which risk assessments are formulated for use by the legal system.     

Positive versus Negative Framing Affects Justice Judgments

This research demonstrates the effect of framing on justice judgments. Presenting identical allocation situations in different modes of accomplishing the resource allocation, resulting in either positive (benefits) or negative (harms) outcomes, affects justice judgments. Two independent studies revealed that participants judged non-egalitarian principles (i.e., merit, ability, effort, need, and tenure) as more just when allocation of a resource was presented in the positive framing manner (e.g., to deliver goods or to withhold bads) relative to presenting the exact same resource allocated in a negative framing manner (e.g., to deliver bads or to withhold goods). It is suggested that the way resource allocation is framed evokes favorable (or unfavorable) associations that cause people to judge the situation as more (or less) just.     

The Influence of Actuarial Risk Assessment in Clinical Judgments and Tribunal Decisions about Mentally Disordered Offenders in Maximum Security

Research has shown that actuarial assessments of violence risk are consistently more accurate than unaided judgments by clinicians, and it has been suggested that the availability of actuarial instruments will improve forensic decision making. This study examined clinical judgments and autonomous review tribunal decisions to detain forensic patients in maximum security. Variables included the availability of an actuarial risk report at the time of decision making, patient characteristics and history, and clinical presentation over the previous year. Detained and transferred patients did not differ in their actuarial risk of violent recidivism. The best predictor of tribunal decision was the senior clinician's testimony. There was also no significant association between the actuarial risk score and clinicians' opinions. Whether the actuarial report was available at the time of decision making did not alter the statistical model of either clinical judgments or tribunal decisions. Implications for the use of actuarial risk assessment in forensic decision making are discussed.     

Key Risk Factors for Relapse and Rearrest Among Substance Use Treatment Patients Involved in the Criminal Justice System

Substance use treatment programs for criminal justice populations have great potential for crime reduction, if they can effectively manage patients’ risk for relapse and rearrest. The current study used data drawn from the Comprehensive Assessment and Treatment Outcome Research (CATOR) system, a national registry of substance use treatment programs, which collected patient outcome data at 6- and 12-month intervals following discharge from treatment. The primary objective was to examine sets of factors that may compromise relapse and rearrest outcomes among patients who were court mandated to participate in treatment. Findings demonstrated that patients’ clinical severity of substance use was associated with relapse, which also significantly increased the probability of post-treatment arrest. Adolescent risk behaviors represented another set of risk factors, particularly among patients who experienced the most severe pattern of relapse and arrest outcomes. Additionally, demographic risk factors, including age, marital status (i.e., single or unmarried relative to married), employment (i.e., being unemployed compared to employed), and lower educational attainment were consistently linked to higher probabilities of relapse and rearrest. Treatment programs for criminal justice populations should consider incorporating appropriate clinical risk assessment measures, behavioral risk assessments, and appropriate employment interventions into standard treatment programming in an effort to improve outcomes.     

Testing the predictive utility of the STATIC‐99: A Bayes analysis

Purpose. This study applies a Bayes analysis to the probability of a particular STATIC‐99 score and its associated re‐offence probability with recidivating for a sexual offence. We examine this probability over three time frames: within 5 years; within 10 years; and within 15 years. Methods. This study was conducted using the same data from Hanson and Thornton (1999) . This dataset is constituted from four different samples: Institut Philippe Pinel (Canada) sample; Millbrook Recidivism Study (Canada) sample; Oak Ridge Division of the Penetanguishene Mental Health Center (Canada) sample; and Her Majesty's Prison Service (UK) sample. The final sample for which sufficient information was available to score the STATIC‐99 includes 1,086 sexual offenders. Bayes statistic has been used to analyse the data. Results. Results are consistent with the STATIC‐99 as a useful assessment tool. The Bayes‐generated probabilities as well as odds ratios show a consistent increase in increased likelihood of re‐offence as the score value increases. Conclusions. The Bayesian analysis of the STATIC‐99 shows that this method is very interesting in the context of risk assessment tools. This approach to risk assessment instruments may be more appropriate in the communication of analytic results as it can offer clinicians a combination of probabilities and likelihood ratios resulting a readily accessible profile of risk.     

Assessment of forensic findings when alternative explanations have different likelihoods—“Blame-the-brother”-syndrome

Assessment of forensic findings with likelihood ratios is for several cases straightforward, but there are a number of situations where contemplation of the alternative explanation to the evidence needs consideration, in particular when it comes to the reporting of the evidentiary strength. The likelihood ratio approach cannot be directly applied to cases where the proposition alternative to the forwarded one is a set of multiple propositions with different likelihoods and different prior probabilities. Here we present a general framework based on the Bayes' factor as the quantitative measure of evidentiary strength from which it can be deduced whether the direct application of a likelihood ratio is reasonable or not. The framework is applied on DNA evidence in forms of an extension to previously published work. With the help of a scale of conclusions we provide a solution to the problem of communicating to the court the evidentiary strength of a DNA match when a close relative to the suspect has a non-negligible prior probability of being the source of the DNA.     

The Effect of Framing Actuarial Risk Probabilities on Involuntary Civil Commitment Decisions

Despite a proliferation of actuarial risk assessment instruments, empirical research on the communication of violence risk is scant and there is virtually no research on the consumption of actuarial risk assessment. Using a 2 × 3 Latin Square factorial design, this experiment tested whether decision-makers are sensitive to varying levels of risk expressed probabilistically and whether the framing of actuarial risk probabilities is consequential for commitment decisions. Consistent with research on attribute framing, in which describing an attribute in terms of its complement leads to different conclusions, this experiment found that the way actuarial risk estimates are framed leads to disparate commitment decisions. For example, risk framed as 26% probability of violence generally led decision-makers to authorize commitment, whereas the same risk framed in the complement, a 74% probability of no violence, generally led decision-makers to release. This result was most pronounced for moderate risk levels. Implications for the risk communication format debate, forensic practice and research are discussed.     

Elasticity in evaluations of criminal evidence: Exploring the role of cognitive dissonance

Purpose. Previous experiments have demonstrated asymmetrical scepticism in investigators' judgments of criminal evidence – evidence inconsistent (vs. consistent) with the dominant hypothesis about a case is judged as less reliable. In addition, some types of evidence (e.g., witness testimony) are more susceptible to asymmetrical scepticism than others (e.g., DNA evidence), indicating varying degrees of elasticity. This article proposes that inconsistent evidence arouses cognitive dissonance, and that the dissonance can be reduced through either asymmetrical scepticism (for high‐elasticity evidence) or belief change (for low‐elasticity evidence). The hypotheses are tested in two experiments. Methods. In both experiments, law students made a preliminary judgment about the guilt of a suspect in a homicide case, and subsequently received a piece of DNA or witness evidence which was either consistent or inconsistent with the preliminary judgment. The extent to which participants changed their guilt judgments, judged the additional evidence as reliable, and felt dissonance served as the main dependent variables. Results. Inconsistent (vs. consistent) evidence did arouse stronger dissonance, but only for witness (and not DNA) evidence. Experienced dissonance (Experiment 1) and dissonance reduction (Experiment 2) accounted for the effect of the evidence on changes in guilt judgments, but not for the effect on reliability judgments. The greatest dissonance reduction was observed among participants who received inconsistent witness evidence but did not change their guilt judgments accordingly. Conclusions. It appears that dissonance plays a significant, although complex, role in investigative judgments of guilt and reliability. Alternative dissonance‐reducing mechanisms that can account for the findings and practical implications are discussed.     

Effects of Testimonial Inconsistencies and Eyewitness Confidence on Mock-Juror Judgments

This study examined the interaction between testimonial consistency and eyewitness confidence on mock-jurors' judgments of probability that the defendant committed the crime and verdicts. In a 2 (testimonial consistency) × 2 (confidence) between-groups design, 130 mock-jurors listened to an audio-taped trial of a person charged with armed robbery. Manipulations were contained in the prosecution witness's responses to detailed questioning by prosecution and defense attorneys. Although consistency is considered to be a key marker of accuracy, its impact on judgments was weak and nonsignificant. Witness confidence had a strong influence on judgments, whether testimony was consistent or inconsistent. We suggested that witness confidence may be more likely to emerge as a dominant influence on juror judgments when the testimony is wide ranging rather than relatively brief and concerned only with a specific issue (e.g., identification confidence).     

Low‐Risk Youths Referred to Pima County Juvenile Court Center Detention Intake: Needs,Detention, and Recidivism

Delinquent youths who were low risk to re‐offend were the subject of this study. It was hypothesized that these youths would have high levels of need (e.g., mental illness) and that detention would lead to increased recidivism. Demographic and social factors, delinquency history, and recidivism data were analyzed, producing four major findings: low‐risk youths have high needs, low‐risk youths recidivate at high rates, unaddressed needs increase the likelihood of detention and recidivism, and behavioral health needs were among the strongest predictors of recidivism. The factors that lead to recidivism are discussed, and suggestions for improving outcomes are also presented.     

DOMESTIC VIOLENCE,DOVE, AND DIVORCE MEDIATION

The primary objective of this article is to describe DOVE, a 19‐item instrument designed to assess and manage the risk of domestic violence between partners during and following their participation in divorce mediation. Assessing risk, more specifically how DOVE can be used to assess risk, is described first. The resulting risk scores (TOTDOVE) are used to assign individuals to risk categories. Problems associated with using categorical, frequency, and probability risk assessment formats in interpreting and communicating risk are discussed in the second segment of the article. A dual, categorical/probability format is advocated. Managing risk using Safety Plan interventions that are linked with risk category and predictor subscores on control, substance abuse, anger, relationship problems, mental health problems, and conflict is covered in the final segment.     

Here comes the judge: the influence of judge personal characteristics on federal sexual harassment case outcomes

This study explored the effects of judges' personal characteristics (gender, race, age, and political affiliation) and case characteristics on the outcomes of federal cases of hostile environment sexual harassment. Results revealed that even after controlling for the effects of relevant case characteristics (e.g., severity of the harassment), judges' personal characteristics influenced case outcomes. Specifically, younger judges and Democrat judges were more likely to find for the plaintiff (the alleged victim of harassment). The probability that the decision would favor the plaintiff was only 16% when the case was heard by an older judge but 45% when heard by a younger judge. The probability that the decision would favor the plaintiff was only 18% when the case was heard by a judge who had been appointed by a Republican president but 46% when the judge had been appointed by a Democrat president.     

LOW SELF‐CONTROL,ROUTINE ACTIVITIES,AND FRAUD VICTIMIZATION*

Recent research has used both routine activity/lifestyle frameworks and self‐control theory to explain victimization. Thus far, combined tests of these theories have focused on offending populations and street crime victimization. Whether these frameworks also explain exposure to and likelihood of nonviolent victimization (e.g., fraud) in general‐population samples remains an open empirical question. Building on prior work, we assess the independent effects of routine consumer activities (i.e., remote purchasing) and low self‐control on the likelihood of fraud targeting and victimization. Using a representative sample of 922 adults from a statewide survey in Florida, the results confirm our expectation that remote‐purchasing activities increase consumers' risk of being targeted for fraud. Low self‐control has no effect on whether consumers are targeted, but it does significantly increase the likelihood of fraud victimization.     

Issues regarding the clinical use of the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) assessment instrument

The MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence produced an instrument for classifying hospitalized psychiatric patients according to their risk of behaving violently following discharge. The instrument, Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) has been computerized and is now commercially available to clinicians. A validation study performed by the original researchers showed that when the instrument was applied to a new sample of patients, it demonstrated a considerable reduction in positive predictive power. Potential factors affecting the instrument's accuracy in applied settings are reviewed. It is concluded that, until additional research clarifies uncertainty about the instrument, clinicians would do well to be very cautious in utilizing COVR results to make judgments as to violence risk, particularly when the test results suggest a high risk of future violence.     

Truth,Lies, and Videotape: An Investigation of the Ability of Federal Parole Officers to Detect Deception

The ability of a group of Canadian federal parole officers to detect deception was investigated over the course of 2 days of lie detection training. On the first day of training, 32 officers judged the honesty of 12 (6 true, 6 fabricated) videotaped speakers describing personal experiences, half of which were judged before and half judged after training. On the second day, 5 weeks later, 20 of the original participants judged the honesty of another 12 videotapes (again, 6 pre- and 6 posttraining). To isolate factors relating to detection accuracy, three groups of undergraduate participants made judgments on the same 24 videotapes: (1) a feedback group, which received feedback on accuracy following each judgment, (2) a feedback + cue information group, which was given feedback and information on empirically based cues to deception, and (3) a control group, which did not receive feedback or cue information. Results indicated that at baseline all groups performed at or below chance levels. However, overall, all experimental groups (including the parole officers) became significantly better at detecting deception than the control group. By the final set of judgments, the parole officers were significantly more accurate (M = 76.7%) than their baseline performance (M = 40.4%) as well as significantly more accurate than the control group (M = 62.5%). The results indicate that detecting deceit is difficult, but training and feedback can enhance detection skills.     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

Deception in Context: Coding Nonverbal Cues, Situational Variables and Risk of Detection

There are many situations in which deception may arise and understanding the behaviors associated with it are compounded by various contexts in which it may occur. This paper sets out a coding protocol for identifying cues to deception and reports on three studies, in which deception was studied in different contexts. The contexts involved manipulating risks (i.e., probability) of being detected and reconnaissance, both of which are related to terrorist activities. Two of the studies examined the impact of changing the risks of deception detection, whilst the third investigated increased cognitive demand of duplex deception tasks including reconnaissance and deception. In all three studies, cues to deception were analyzed in relation to observable body movements and subjective impressions given by participants. In general, the results indicate a pattern of hand movement reduction by deceivers, and suggest the notion that raising the risk of detection influences deceivers’ behaviors. Participants in the higher risk condition displayed increased negative affect (found in deceivers) and tension (found in both deceivers and truth-tellers) than those in lower risk conditions.     

Sample Size Determination for Categorical Responses

Abstract:  Procedures are reviewed and recommendations made for the choice of the size of a sample to estimate the characteristics (sometimes known as parameters) of a population consisting of discrete items which may belong to one and only one of a number of categories with examples drawn from forensic science. Four sampling procedures are described for binary responses, where the number of possible categories is only two, e.g., licit or illicit pills. One is based on priors informed from historical data. The other three are sequential. The first of these is a sequential probability ratio test with a stopping rule derived by controlling the probabilities of type 1 and type 2 errors. The second is a sequential variation of a procedure based on the predictive distribution of the data yet to be inspected and the distribution of the data that have been inspected, with a stopping rule determined by a prespecified threshold on the probability of a wrong decision. The third is a two-sided sequential criterion which stops sampling when one of two competitive hypotheses has a probability of being accepted which is larger than another prespecified threshold. The fifth procedure extends the ideas developed for binary responses to multinomial responses where the number of possible categories (e.g., types of drug or types of glass) may be more than two. The procedure is sequential and recommends stopping when the joint probability interval or ellipsoid for the estimates of the proportions is less than a given threshold in size. For trinomial data this last procedure is illustrated with a ternary diagram with an ellipse formed around the sample proportions. There is a straightforward generalization of this approach to multinomial populations with more than three categories. A conclusion provides recommendations for sampling procedures in various contexts.     

A Time Series Modeling Approach in Risk Appraisal of Violent and Sexual Recidivism

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.