Fiscal Management Implications of the TABOR Bind

Following a wave of state-adopted tax and expenditure limitations (TELs), in 1992 the state of Colorado amended its constitution with the strictest TEL to date. Called the Taxpayer Bill of Rights and known as TABOR, the amendment has limited the size and scope of Colorado governments. Praised as a restraint on unbridled government growth in good economic times, TABOR reared its highly restrictive head as the state economy turned downward. The central issue explored is how binding tax and expenditure limitations affect the state's ability to weather economic recessions and employ sound fiscal management practices. As in most institutional arrangements, the devil is in the details. The analysis presented here reveals that binding limitations create perverse incentives for budgetary actors to earmark, privatize, and shift responsibilities to other jurisdictions, which ultimately combine to reduce the state government's ability to perform and to maintain sound fiscal management practices.     

The impacts of public interventions: An examination of the forestry sector

This article measures welfare and distributive effects of public market interventions in forestry. These interventions represent both the demand (Jones Act shipping restrictions and minimum wage restrictions) and supply (state forest practice acts, forest incentives payments, taxes and public land management) sides of the market. The authors evaluate how well these programs promote the three standard economic justifications for market intervention: market failure, distributive justice, and stabilization. Their results indicate that, with the single exception of Timber Mart South (a government-sponsored price-reporting service), all market interventions fail to accomplish their efficiency and distributive objectives. Furthermore, the authors find that targeted regulatory programs (such as State Forest Practice Acts) have small impacts when compared to effects of taxation and public ownership.     

The Effect of Tax and Expenditure Limitations on Revenue Volatility: Evidence from Colorado

Much of the research on tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) focuses on the impact that limits have on the size of the public sector or the distribution of expenditures at the state and local levels. While these results shed light on the extent to which TELs succeed in reducing government spending, they do not have much to say about the impact of TELs on government budgeting or financial planning, despite the fact that voters support TELs in the hope of reducing government inefficiency (Courant, Gramlich, and Rubinfeld 1980; Ladd and Wilson 1982). This paper examines the effect of TELs on the stability of government revenues; sound tax policy entails controlling the volatility of revenues in order to plan more effectively for the future. Using panel data from Colorado's Division of Local Government as well as the Census Bureau's Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances, this paper examines the impact of Colorado's 1992 Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR) on local government finances. Results from difference‐in‐difference estimation suggest that TELs increase revenue and expenditure volatility.     

Policy Punctuations in Colorado Water Law: The Breakdown of a Monopoly

The actors, influences, and processes that combine forces to change policy subsystems are modeled in punctuated equilibrium theory wherein monopolistic policy subsystems are broken down through changes in policy images and venue shopping spurred by a critical mobilization of actors. Studying a case of policy change in Colorado water rights, this research examines multiple levels of policy change—local, state, and cross‐case. This research finds that at the state level, punctuated equilibrium theory accurately explains the process by which policies changed to allow for recreational in‐channel uses of water. At the local level, however, these processes are not clearly evident. Using media coverage as a proxy measure for agenda status also shows that policy image change and high public agenda status did not lead to these policy changes within Colorado communities. This article discusses whether we should therefore discount punctuated equilibrium as a model of policy change in this case.     

A Reevaluation of the Effects of State and ACA Dependent Coverage Mandates on Health Insurance Coverage

We study state and federal health insurance coverage mandates for young adults. Despite consistent findings that the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) federal mandate was effective, research has disagreed on whether preexisting, state-level mandates were successful in increasing coverage. We reconsider the issue with a new analytical perspective and newly available accurate data on state mandates. We show that the impact of the state mandates was substantive and concentrated among young adults between ages 19 and 23. Our estimates indicate that dependent coverage rose by 3.9 percentage points and overall coverage rose by 3.3 percentage points. Crowd-out of coverage through young adults’ own jobs was negligible. For those above 23, we find little evidence of changes in coverage. We incorporate these insights into analysis of the ACA's mandate, showing its effects were focused among those who were not eligible for state mandates, or were eligible but older than 23. Our results suggest that eligibility restrictions played important roles in limiting the scope of the state mandates, but they can be practical and effective tools for policymakers looking to ensure or expand coverage for young adults in the face of uncertainty about the ACA.     

The Changing Property Tax in the West: State Centralization of Local Finances

Diminished local government autonomy and increased fiscal centralization in the hands of state government are the consequences of the restrictions on the local property tax imposed in the western states in the past twenty years. While the trend is a national one, it is more evident in the West than in other regions. Statewide voter initiatives account for some of the restrictions, particularly the more severe ones, but legislatures and governors also impose these limitations. In tracing the recent course of the centralization of local finance, this article details the property tax restrictions adopted in individual western states, examines the initiative and conventional legislative sources of these actions, and provides quantitative and qualitative evidence for the centralization thesis. In many western states the property tax has lost much of its local character, becoming in large part a fiscal and political tool for state policymakers.     

State Constitutional Limits on Legislative Procedure: Legislative Compliance and Judicial Enforcement

Most state constitutions contain detailed restrictions on thelegislative process. Violations of some of these restrictions(e.g., single-subject requirements) are reflected on the faceof a final enactment. Other violations (e.g., alteration ofa bill to change its original purpose) are not evident in thefinal enactment, but require investigation of the legislativeprocess. State courts have developed a variety of approachesto these second types of violations, from excluding all evidencebeyond the enactment to permitting any evidence of constitutionalviolations. The Pennsylvania Abortion Control Act was passedin apparent violation of both types of constitutional restrictions.The legislative debates reflected legislators' attitudes aboutsuch restrictions, but the Pennsylvania courts refuse to enforcethem. After surveying other judicial approaches, the articlediscusses the legislative and executive obligation to followconstitutional restrictions, regardless of judicial enforcement.The article then advocates increased judicial enforcement, whilemaintaining proper deference to the legislature.     

State Executive Orders: Nuance in Restrictions,Revealing Suspensions,and Decisions to Enforce

In the absence of a large-scale federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, state and local elected officials have enacted executive orders that include restrictions on public liberties as well as the suspension of rules and regulations. While these restrictive policy actions have received extensive media attention, the suspensions, including regulatory rollbacks, waivers, and extensions, are lesser known. This Viewpoint essay offers insight from a working database that captures the nuance and variation across restrictions, suspensions, and enforcement mechanisms being utilized at the state level.     

Understanding State Rulemaking Processes: Developing Fracking Rules in Colorado,New York,and Ohio

Rulemaking is an integral component of environmental policy at both the federal and state level; however, rulemaking at the state level is understudied. With this research, we begin to fill that gap by focusing on rulemaking regarding the issue of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in three states: Colorado, New York, and Ohio. This policy issue is well suited to begin exploring state‐level rulemaking processes because the federal government has left fracking regulation to the states. Through semistructured interviews with a range of actors in the rulemaking process across these states, we establish a foundation from which future research in this area may build. This exploratory research yields some valuable insights into the roles different stakeholders are playing in regulating fracking in these three states, and our findings may be useful for explaining state‐level rulemaking more generally.     

Do blue laws save lives? The effect of Sunday alcohol sales bans on fatal vehicle accidents

This paper analyzes the effect of state‐level Sunday alcohol sales restrictions (“blue laws”) on fatal vehicle accidents, which is an important parameter in assessing the desirability of these laws. Using a panel data set of all fatal vehicle accidents in the U.S. between 1990 and 2009 combined with 15 state repeals of blue laws, we show that restricting alcohol sales on Sunday has at most a small effect on fatal accident rates. Using American Time Use Survey data, we find no effect of blue laws on the location of consumption, and we show that the group whose drunk driving behavior is most affected by these laws is underage men. Overall, these results suggest that Sunday alcohol sales restrictions have fewer secular public health benefits, at least in terms of vehicle fatalities, than previously believed. © 2011 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Immigrants,welfare reform,and the economy

The welfare reform bill adopted in the United States in 1996 limited the eligibility of immigrants for several government assistance programs, and early projections estimated that nearly half of the savings associated with the reforms would come from these immigrant restrictions. Several studies have found that subsequent program participation declined more for immigrants relative to natives, seemingly verifying the early projections. However, many of these restrictions were either rescinded by the federal government or superceded by state and local policies. In this paper, we first reproduce earlier findings that show the relative declines in program use among immigrants. We then show that much, but not all, of the relative decline in program use among immigrants can be explained by changing macroeconomic conditions. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The economic impact of state restrictions on abortion: parental consent and notification laws and Medicaid funding restrictions.

State-legislative support for liberalized abortion policies, the availability of abortion providers, and actual abortion rates vary widely across states. This article uses national data to examine the impact of the following three major, enforceable state abortion restrictions as of 1988 on the access to and use of abortion services: state restrictions on Medicaid financing of abortions for low-income women (36 states), state requirements for parental consent or parental notification for minors to obtain abortions (11 states), and state restrictions on insurance coverage of abortion for public employees (8 states). The impact of state abortion restrictions is becoming an increasingly important policy issue as the number and types of restrictions which can be enforced in the US increase rapidly. The Supreme Court in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services (1989) upheld a Missouri law banning abortions in public hospitals and the involvement of public employees in the performance of abortions; states via this ruling may also enforce mandatory testing for viability after a specified point in the pregnancy. The Supreme Court then in Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey (1992) effectively ruled that states can enforce a 24-hour waiting period and a state-prescribed talk on abortion for women seeking abortion. Analysis of the data found that there are significantly fewer hospitals, clinics, and private physicians' offices providing abortions in states with parental consent or notification laws. Moreover the rate of minors' abortions per 1000 teen pregnancies is 16% lower, and the rate of minors' abortions per 1000 women aged 15-19 is 25% lower in states with such laws compared to states without the laws. Data from abortion clinics and referral services in Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island suggest that 20-55% of minors are going to court instead of informing their parents. 35% of minors who contacted a clinic in Massachusetts and 49% in Rhode Island went out of state for abortions. As for Medicaid restrictions, there are significantly fewer hospitals, clinics, and private physicians' offices providing abortions in states which restrict funding of abortions as compared to states which do not. State restrictions on insurance coverage of abortion for public employees do not appear to be associated with statistically significant differences in abortion rates or abortion availability.     

Information, market government, and health policy: a study of health data organizations in the states.

Information is essential to the success of market-oriented policies. Information on health care costs and quality is collected and distributed by state governments through health data organizations (HDOs) to enhance competition and lower costs in the medical industry and to improve consumer choice among medical alternatives. This article examines the information collected, produced, and distributed by state health data organizations in Colorado and Pennsylvania. Findings reveal that information was not the objective determinant of choice and competition as market-oriented policy designers had hoped. Nor did market-oriented bureaucracies produce and distribute data readily accessible for public choice. Instead, information produced and distributed by these HDOs was the result of political and bureaucratic exercises that conform much more to classic interest group policymaking and captured bureaucracies than to contemporary market-oriented government ideals. The findings underscore the extraordinary difficulties facing federal-level policy designers as they contemplate introducing market-oriented health care policies on the national level.     

Pressure-group influence and institutional change: Branch-banking legislation during the Great Depression

Between 1931 and 1935 the change in the state laws governing the organizational structure of banking was significant. Twenty-two states relaxed restrictions over branch banking, even though many had previously prohibited it. We apply a model of pressure-group and rent-seeking behavior to investigate the reasons underlying this remarkable shift in the institutional arrangements for regulating the structure of the banking industry. The findings indicate that the extraordinarily high rate of bank failures tipped the political balance toward the pro-branching forces in many states. However, in a number of states growth in the influence of branch and group bankers and increases in urbanization were largely responsible for the relaxation of restrictions over branch banking.     

Policy Entrepreneurs,Issue Experts,and Water Rights Policy Change in Colorado

Policy entrepreneurs can influence policy changes and decisions. These people invest their time, knowledge, and skills into promoting policies with which they agree. This paper investigates the influence that entrepreneurs had in the case of recreational water rights policy in Colorado to build a model of policy entrepreneurship. Almost 20 Colorado communities have constructed white‐water kayak courses to boost their local economies. In twelve of these communities, construction was followed by community pursuit of a new form of water right—the recreational in‐channel diversion. This case study is relevant to many areas of environmental policy and management where policies are transitioning from traditional consumptive uses of the resource to nonconsumptive uses. This policy change was not a given in Colorado communities, with recreational water rights requiring significant investments of community resources. These research findings conclude that policy entrepreneurs were influential to policy change, but the most important actors were expert entrepreneurs who hold expertise in water resource matters.     

A power measure analysis of Amendment 36 in Colorado

Colorado’s Amendment 36 proposed to switch Colorado’s representation in the Electoral College from winner-takes-all to proportionality. We evaluate unilateral and uniform switches to proportionality both from Colorado’s perspective and from an impartial perspective on the basis of a priori and a posteriori voting power measures. The present system is to be preferred to a unilateral switch from any perspective on any measure. A uniform switch is to be preferred to the present system from Colorado’s perspective on an a priori measure, and from an impartial perspective on an a posteriori measure. The present system is to be preferred to a uniform switch from Colorado’s perspective on an a posteriori measure (with some qualifications), and from an impartial perspective on an a priori measure. We conclude with a discussion of the appropriateness of these measures.     

Interlocal Collaboration and Local Fiscal Structure: Do State Incentives Matter?

Interlocal collaboration is considered an important tool for cost-saving. States, therefore, have incentivized interlocal collaboration in different ways. To understand the budgetary consequences of interlocal collaboration and state incentives, we examine counties in Nebraska where the State uses two incentive mechanisms—resource restrictions and additional access to restricted revenues granted to counties with collaboration. This study finds that county expenditures are lower when they spend more through collaboration. While this lower spending is related to lower revenues in counties less constrained by state restrictions, the results for counties more constrained are unclear. State incentive structures may matter for such variations.     

State Wildlife Policy and Management: The Scope and Bias of Political Conflict

State wildlife policy and management are often characterized by divisive political conflict among competing stakeholders. This conflict is increasingly being resolved through the ballot-initiative process. One important reason the process is being used so often is the way state wildlife policy and management decisions are often made by state wildlife commissions, boards, or councils (the dominant way these decisions are made in the United States). These bodies are often perceived by important stakeholders as biased, exclusive, or unrepresentative of nonconsumptive stakeholder values. As a result, unsatisfied interest groups often try to take decision-making authority away from these institutions and give it to the public through the ballot initiative. Cases and examples from Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Idaho are examined in this context. The article finishes by outlining four broad alternatives that may be debated in the future: the no change alternative, the authoritative expert alternative, the structural change alternative, and the stakeholder-based collaborative conservation alternative(s).     

Small City Autonomy in the Federal System: A Study of Local Constraint and Opportunity in California

How severe have been the restrictions on the autonomy of localgovernments, as state and federal mandates and grant programsproliferated in the 1970s? This study of mandate and grant impactsin nine, small California cities suggests that local controlhas not been reduced as much as the recent literature of federalismargues. Municipal officials in these communities perceived arange of effects according to program areas. Clean water standardswere negatively viewed, while state planning mandates actuallyserved to further local goals. Most of the cities did not hesitateto compete for grants, despite their many strings. Based onthe "hard case" of small cities—which are relative newcomersto grant and mandate programs, and generally change-resistantin attitude—this study points out some positive localgovernment impacts of federal-and state-local entanglements. ¹ As associate investigator of the project on which this paperis based, Joan Hogan of the Institute of Governmental Affairs,University of California at Davis, contributed significantlyto the research.     

Learning Contested Lessons: Participation Equity and Electric Utility Regulation

Electric utilities have typically enjoyed a close and cooperative relationship with the state regulatory bodies that oversee them. In 2001, the Colorado Public Utilities Commission mandated that the largest Colorado utility build a wind power plant as part of its conventional generating capacity, despite the utility's vigorous objections. Local environmental groups, intervening in a form of rule making called Integrated Resource Planning, succeeded in overturning regulatory capture. This paper explains this anomalous case and highlights the role of knowledge and learning in the outcome. The case shows the opportunities and limitations of using contested technical knowledge to push for institutional learning. The case also suggests the importance of repeated policy processes. Wind energy advocates perceived that they had acquired participation equity, ownership in the process akin to Kingdon's “softening up,” which led policy makers to take their arguments more seriously, opening up the possibility of institutional learning.