The use of RAS and related models in manpower forecasting

With the increasing availability of statistics describing the occupational structures of different industries manpower forecasters are beginning to develop more sophisticated models. The economic rationale of such models has tended to be obscured by the mathematics involved and an understandable eagerness to put the data to use in forecasting. In addition, the systematic testing of the explanatory power of these models has been neglected where it has not been hampered by the shortage of data series. The RAS model has featured prominently in manpower discussions and this paper attempts an evaluation of its predictive ability and economic interpretation subject to the limits imposed by the data available for the British engineering industry. It is argued that such a model plays a useful initial role in the development of models for sectoral manpower forecasting but must lead on to a more sensitive treatment of the labour market and the decision problem of investing in human capital.     

Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China

We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices.     

Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.     

Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.     

Bus Stops and Violence,Are Risky Places Really Risky?

Geographic forecasting of crime can be done by considering prior crime or by considering spatial risk factors, e.g., using risk terrain modeling (RTM). The present paper tests both methods, but primarily focuses on RTM and on increasing our understanding of forecasting by attempting to compare the spatial risk factors for where the number of crimes is high with the spatial risk factors for where the risk of victimization is high. This is performed by fitting negative binomial models on crime around bus stops and comparing them to the same models with the number of bus passengers as exposure variable. The models also take the surrounding environment into account by fitting multi-level models with neighborhood level predictors of concentrated disadvantage and collective efficacy. The results show that some types of facilities are risk factors for crime, but not for victimization. This results in new insights into how flows of people impact on forecasting, as for instance a school is a spatial risk factor for crime, while not being associated with an elevated risk per person. The results also show that the neighborhood level of collective efficacy is a stable and significant risk factor both for crime and for risk of victimization, highlighting a potential for better crime forecasting by combining different spatial and theoretical perspectives.     

Manpower impacts of changes in federal budget priorities

This paper presents the results obtained from computer simulations conducted to determine the sentitivity of occupational employment demands to shifting patterns of U.S. Federal expenditures. The general model utilized is described and the effects of four hypothesized shifts in national priorities upon U. S. manpower requirements in the early 1960's are estimated. Selected occupations are classified and ranked according to their sensitivity to changing patterns of resource allocation between military and civilian activities. From these findings implications for economic and manpower forecasting are derived and discussed.     

Orientations to juvenile justice: Exploratory notes from a statewide survey of juvenile justice decisionmakers

This study examined the extent to which orientations to juvenile justice held by decisionmakers are related to their functional roles and educational backgrounds. Predictions concerning this question were drawn from both the literature on complex organizations and writings by scholars interpreting and forecasting the future of juvenile justice.The findings indicate that assignment to specific roles in the juvenile justice system is a significant predictor of commitment to either a rehabilitative or a just deserts model of juvenile justice. This effect appears to be modified to some extent by educational backgrounds and professional identifications. The implications of these findings for a continuation of the traditional rehabilitative ideal in juvenile justice are discussed.     

Long-range U.S. Manpower forecasts in retrospect: How accurate were we?

This paper compares and evaluates the accuracy of long-range occupational manpower forecasts made for 1980 in the early 1970s by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and by the author. The different assumptions and forecasting methodologies utilized are discussed, and the occupational forecasts are then compared to the actual 1980 employment data. The relative accuracy of the different sets of forecasts is assessed according to several different criteria, and the larger question of the usefulness of either set of forecasts is addressed. It is found that neither set of forecasts was clearly superior, that the accuracy of both sets of forecasts was generally poor, and that the projections for individual occupations were often so wide of the mark as to be of questionable usefulness for manpower planning and vocational guidance. The implications of these findings for manpower forecasting are discussed.     

Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need

Although municipal jails consume a significant amount of resources and the number of inmates housed in such facilities exploded in the 1990s, the literature on forecasting jail populations is sparse. Jail administrators have available discussions on jail crowding and its causes, but do not have ready access to applications of forecasting techniques or practical demonstrations of a jail inmate population forecast. This article argues that the underlying reason for this deficiency is the inherent unpredictability of local long-term correctional population levels. The driving forces behind correctional bed need render local jail population forecasts empirically valid only for a brief time frame. These inherent difficulties include the volatile nature of jail populations and their greater sensitivity when compared with prison populations to local conditions; the gap between the data needed for local correctional population forecasting and what is realistically available to forecasters; the lack of reliable lead variables for long-term local correctional population forecasts; the clash of the mathematics of forecasting and the substantive issues involved in the interpretation of forecast models; and the significant political and policy impacts of forecasts on local criminal justice systems and subsequent correctional population trends.The differences between the accuracy of short-term versus long-term jail bed need forecasts means that forecasting local correctional bed need is empirically valid for, at best, one to two years. As the temporal cast is extended, longer-term forecasts quickly become error prone. Except for unique situations where jails exist in highly stable local political, social, and criminal justice environments, long-term forecasts of two years or greater are fatally flawed and have little empirical accuracy. Long-term forecasts of local jail bed needs are useful, though, as policy catalysts to encourage policymakers to consider possible long-term impacts of current decisions, but forecasts should be thought of and presented as one possible future scenario rather than a likely reality. Utilizing a demonstration of a local jail forecast based upon two common empirical forecasting approaches, ARIMA and autoregression, this article presents a case study of the inherent difficulties in the long-term forecasting of local jail bed need.     

Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.     

依恋的内部工作模型

内部工作模型是Bowlby依恋理论中的重要概念,研究者就其内容、结构、形成和发展过程及其内在的认知、情感机制、行为策略、与依恋风格个体差异的关系等方面提出大量的理论假设,并围绕这些问题进行了大量的实证研究,但由于发展的不成熟,该领域仍存在着许多问题有待解决.内部工作模型是以层级形式组织的多层多维模型,相关证据也证实了不同内部工作模型的存在,也指出了它们的相关关系,但对于内部工作模型的具体组织形式,研究者迄今并没有给出准确的论述.就内部工作模型的作用机制而言,现有的研究多以概括水平的工作模型为研究对象,并未明确具体水平的工作模型对依恋行为的影响.     

Multisectoral econometric models of the centrally planned economies and the disequilibria

The paper provides a systematic analysis of the properties of large econometric macro models built for the Centrally Planned economies of the '70s and '80s. A specific typology of macro models is introduced, distinguishing between the demand and quasi-demand determined systems on the one hand and the supply and quasi-supply determined systems on the other, and also between complete and incomplete models specifying only one side of economic activities (i.e. generating either demand or supply). It is shown that, under the command type economy, the incomplete, fully supply determined systems prevailed, generating production and showing its allocation. The economic reforms of the '80s, which aimed at a slow transition towards market economies, brought about a tendency towards constructing complete quasi-supply determined systems (especially for Poland and the CSRS). Since, in principle, they were built for shortage economies, the model builders had to allow for unobservables (final and intermediate demand, capacity utilization) and, on the other hand, for an increasing role of the financial phenomena (including prices) and financial policy instruments. A summary of the applications of macro models in forecasting and policy simulations is provided and new tendencies associated with regaining economic equilibria and approaching the market mechanisms emerging in the period of transition are shown.     

Virtually Criminal: Discourse,Deviance and Anxiety Within Virtual Communities

While it would be appropriate to state that criminologists and those in legal disciplines have recently discovered that new technologies are worthy of research, they have yet to tap into growing concerns over sub-criminal activity within increasing populated virtual environments. As a result we find new forms of sociopathic behaviour, which present themselves in abundance, being disregarded due to their 'virtual status', while similar crimes in the real world are subject to intensive investigation. This study considers forms of 'virtual deviance' that manifest themselves within online communities as viable forms of inquiry. Through a multi-method approach, including ethnographic methods, linguistic, case source and discourse analysis, this research project aims to unravel the link between the aetiology of online deviance and the discourses of surveillance, regulation and mediation. It is hoped that the analysis will provide for a virtual regulatory model that curtails disruptive behaviour within online environments while simultaneously maintaining relevant justice models and forms of human/ avatar rights.     

Street youths' violent responses to violent personal, vicarious, and anticipated strain

Utilizing general strain theory, this study explored the role experienced violent victimization, vicarious violent victimization, and two forms of anticipated violent victimization, played in the generation of street youths' violent offending. Basic models showed that experienced, vicarious, and fear of anticipated victimization were associated with violent offending. Full models suggested that only experienced violent victimization had a lower order relationship with violence. The relationship between experienced victimization and violence was further moderated by negative emotionality and low constraint. Males were also more likely to respond to experienced victimization with violence at higher levels of social support. Findings also revealed the relationship between vicarious violent victimization and violence was moderated by low constraint. Further, anticipated risk of violent victimization was associated with violent offending at lower levels of constraint, greater negative emotionality, and higher levels of social support. Results are discussed and avenues for future research are offered.     

Instrumental and Normative Pathways to Legitimacy and Public Cooperation with the Police in Turkey: Considering Perceived Neighborhood Characteristics and Local Government Performance

This study investigates the relative contributions of instrumental and normative models to the legitimacy of and cooperation with the police in Turkey. Based on a random sample of 1,800 Istanbulians, the potential contributions of perceived neighborhood characteristics also are considered. Results show that both instrumental and normative models of regulation are applicable to the highly centralized and state-serving Turkish policing context. While the instrumental model exerts relatively more influence on legitimacy than does the normative model, the two models are of equal importance in predicting legitimacy after perceived neighborhood characteristics are taken into consideration. Social cohesion and local government performance also emerged as significant predictors of police legitimacy. Public cooperation with police, on the other hand, is encouraged by increased police legitimacy, better local government performance, and higher household income. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.     

Like Zealots and Romans: Terrorism and Empire in the 21st Century

The paper defines terrorismand gives a rough classification of itstraditional forms: repressive terrorism,insurrectional terrorism ofethnic/national/separatist character andsocial-revolutionary terrorism. To explainthese forms of terrorism, scholars used twomodels: the psychiatric model and thesociological model. Both were – and are –not just objects of scholarly debate, butpart and parcel of a political conflictover the legitimacy of terrorist actions.In the last decade, new forms of terrorism(most prominent: fundamentalist Islamicterrorism) have developed as a reaction toglobalization and Empire-building. We haveseen a development from provincialterrorism to terrorism of global reach,from terrorism as a form of political crimeto terrorism as criminalized war. Thetraditional explanatory models have,therefore, to be supplemented by adiscussion of the dialectical relationbetween the growing American Empire and aspecific form of military opposition.Defined as terrorism, this opposition has,ironically, become a rather useful enemy inthe process of Empire-building. There ishope that the Empire will, in the not sodistant future, be able to monopolize thelegitimate use of military force,criminalize all other forms of violenceand, thus, turn the terror of wars into amere war on terrorism.     

Determinants of completing rape and assault

Is rape unique in terms of the factors which transform an attempt into a completion? Or is rape similar to other forms of assaultive violence? These questions are addressed here by employing the National Crime Survey to develop models of attempted versus completed rape, assault on females, and assault on males. Logistic equations predicting each type of victimization are estimated and compared. The analysis shows that rape victimization is unique. Additionally, the differences between attempted versus completed rape and assault cannot be accounted for by the sex of the victim or the sex of the assailant. The implications of these findings for theories of rape and assault are discussed. The policy implications of these findings are briefly considered.     

What is good criminal justice theory?

This article assesses current work in criminal justice theory and identifies two criteria for theory—that which appeals to empirical validation, and that which appeals to historical tradition. Appeals to empirical validation are consistent with a scientific model, while appeals to historical tradition are consistent with an interpretive model of social science. Both models are described and the way in which each contributes to theory in criminal justice is discussed.     

The Future Location of Research and Technology Transfer

The triple helix model of university-industry-government relations is explicated for the transfer of technology. Drawing upon a broad range of international instances, the stages and phases through which the institutional spheres most relevant to innovation are drawn into a more productive relationship are discussed in comparison to alternative models.     

EQUALITY,DIGNITY, AND SOCIAL HARMONY: EXPLORING THE RATIONALES AND MODELS FOR RECOGNIZING SAME-SEX RELATIONSHIPS IN LAW

One of the major changes that has taken place over the past twenty to thirty years has been the extension of the legal recognition and protections for same-sex relationships in a wide range of countries. A number of jurisdictions, including China, are considering the approach that they will adopt. This article seeks firstly to consider the justifications for the legal recognition of same-sex relationships by the state. Three main, compelling rationales are identified which are rooted in notions of the equality of all persons, the dignity and liberty of individuals to form close personal relationships, and the social benefits of recognizing close, personal relationships of same-sex couples. The second part of this article then turns to consider the manner in which same-sex relationships should be recognized. Four models are identified: a “Partial Rights” model; a “Civil Partnerships” model; a “Marriage Equality” model, and a “Diversity of Relationships” model. Reasons for and against these particular models will be examined. In the conclusion, it shall be argued that the choice of model that has been adopted can be seen to depend on a number of factors: the manner in which equality is conceived in that society; the understanding of same-sex relationships therein, and the religious and cultural opposition to same-sex relationships in that society. The models are also not states of affairs that are fixed for all time and many countries have progressed from less extensive forms of recognition to wider recognition over time. Ultimately, it shall be argued that the rationales underlying the recognition of close personal relationships in the law support the “Marriage Equality” model or the “Diversity of Relationships” model. This article thus seeks to provide an understanding of the rationales and models for recognizing same-sex relationships that have been adopted around the world: Its focus is thus comparative but may, in this way, be useful to lawmakers and advocates for legal reform in this area in China and other jurisdictions around the world.