Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.     

Alternatives To Population-Based Crime Rates

This paper examines several alternatives to standard, population-based crime rates. These alternatives include rates standardized according to a variable other than population, and rates calculated by statistically standardizing for a number of variables simultaneously. Augmenting traditional crime rates with alternative types of rates can provide more information about the prevalence of crime, can help avoid the limitations of traditional rates, and can enhance analysts' flexibility in choosing crime rates appropriate to their analytical purpose.     

Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

A methodological critique of Cantor and Land's (1985) approach to the time series analysis of the crime–unemployment relationship is developed. Error correction models for U.S. homicide and robbery rates for the years 1946–1997 are presented to illustrate procedures for analyzing nonstationary time series data. The critique is followed by a discussion of methodological problems in work by Devine et al. (1988), Smith et al. (1992), and Britt (1994, 1997) that builds on Cantor and Land's approach.     

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.     

Inequality, Opportunity, and Crime Rates in Central Cities

In a recent paper, Cohen and Felson argue that changes in our routine activities since World War 11 have contributed to the increase in predatory crime by creating additional opportunities for it. In particular, they found that a measure of the dispersal of activities away from the home-the household activity ratio-has had a significant effect on crime rate trends since 1947. The aim of the present research is twofold: (1) to determine if this relationship occurs across space as well as over time, and (2) to see i f economic inequality may be an intervening variable between the household activity ratio and the crime rate. The sample consists of 93 nonsouthern cities of over 50,000 population in 1960. Data are drawn from the 1970 Census und the U n i f m Crime Reports. Using path analysis, it is determined that the effects of the household activity ratio cm rates of predatory crime are entirely indirect, and are transmitted by income inequality.     

Victimization Rates, Exposure to Risk, and Fear of Crime

Studies of fear of crime repeatedly point to an apparent paradox: fear of crime and risk of victimization are related inversely among demographic groups (i.e., age, race, and sex groups). However, data from surveys of Chicago residents show that fear of crime is related positively to victimization rates once they are adjusted for exposure to risk. When demographic variables are included with the adjusted rates as predictors of fear of crime, age and sex effects persist. Even so the present findings indicate that fear of crime should not be interpreted as an irrational or unjustified response and that fear can be reduced by lowering victimization rates.     

The Effects of Immigrant Concentration on Changes in Neighborhood Crime Rates

Objectives

This study investigated the extent to which immigrant concentration is associated with reductions in neighborhood crime rates in the City of Los Angeles.

Methods

A potential outcomes model using two-stage least squares regression was estimated, where immigrant concentration levels in 1990 were used as an instrumental variable to predict immigrant concentration levels in 2000. The instrumental variables design was used to reduce selection bias in estimating the effect of immigrant concentration on changes in official crime rates between 2000 and 2005 for census tracts in the City of Los Angeles, holding constant other demographic variables and area-level fixed effects. Non-parametric smoothers were also employed in a two-stage least squares regression model to control for the potential influence of heterogeneity in immigrant concentration on changes in crime rates.

Results

The results indicate that greater predicted concentrations of immigrants in neighborhoods are linked to significant reductions in crime. The results are robust to a number of different model specifications.

Conclusions

The findings challenge traditional ecological perspectives that link immigrant settlement to higher rates of crime. Immigration settlement patterns appear to be associated with reducing the social burden of crime. Study conclusions are limited by the potential for omitted variables that may bias the observed relationship between immigrant concentration and neighborhood crime rates, and the use of only official crime data which may under report crimes committed against immigrants. Understanding whether immigrant concentration is an important dynamic of changing neighborhood patterns of crime outside Los Angeles will require replication with data from other U.S. cities.     

Crime Theory Evaluation Using Simulation Models of Residential Burglary

This paper provides new insights on the study of crime modeling through the development of a hybrid cellular automaton (CA) and Multi-agent System (MAS) simulation model that is able to combine components of multiple criminological theories to forecast the locations of residential burglary targets: journey to crime (JTC), social disorganization (SD) theory, and routine activity (RA) theory. In order to combine individual factors from each theory into a unified model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed for hierarchical parameter selection. The model is then evaluated using data on offenders obtained from the Dallas Police Department to examine how different crime theories perform in the prediction of residential burglary. Compared to the SD- and RA-weighted models, the JTC-weighted model performed the best when comparisons were made to actual burglary locations. The findings demonstrate that the simulation models of crime provide test beds for research into the explanatory power of various crime theories.     

Models of South-East Asian Organised Crime Drug Operations in Queensland

In 2002, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) issued a report entitled Results of a pilot survey of forty selected organized criminal groups in sixteen countries which established five models of organised crime. This paper reviews these and other common organised crime models and drug trafficking models, and applies them to cases of South East Asian drug trafficking in the Australian state of Queensland. The study tests the following hypotheses: (1) South-East Asian drug trafficking groups in Queensland will operate within a criminal network or core group; (2) Wholesale drug distributors in Queensland will not fit consistently under any particular UN organised crime model; and (3) Street dealers will have no organisational structure. The study concluded that drug trafficking or importation closely resembles a criminal network or core group structure. Wholesale dealers did not fit consistently into any UN organised crime model. Street dealers had no organisational structure as an organisational structure is typically found in mid- to high-level drug trafficking.     

Low Crime Rates in Bahrain: Islamic Social Control-Testing the Theory of Synnomie

This pioneer work builds upon the systems of social control (synnomie) developed by Freda Adler (1983). Its intent is to assess the low crime profile of Bahrain and in so doing to offer explanations for this country's low crime rates. While there is crime in Bahrain, this country appears to be the exception to the rule that rapid industrialization breeds high crime. The unique situation in Bahrain will be analyzed by: giving an overview of the country of Bahrain, examining recent crime statistics reported by official agencies in Bahrain, the United States, and in addition, the state of Vermont. The official sources of these data are not considered to be the most reliable indicators of crime, but they are the most comparable. Vermont is used for the comparison of numbers since it has an approximate population to Bahrain.

Low statistics of the amount of crime are reported for Bahrain which form the foundation for this paper. This paper offers possible explanations of low crime by using as its base the theory of synnomie (the consistency of norm and values sharing); and summarizes the main points in this paper and draws conclusions which point in the direction for the future of Bahrain, its citizens, and incidences of reported crime as Bahrain continues with its mission of modernization.     

Structural Covariates of Violent Crime Rates in Germany: Exploratory Spatial Analyses of Kreise

This research applies the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression modeling to explain variation in robbery and assault rates across 413 districts or “Kreise” in Germany. The findings from ESDA reveal a distinct clustering of low rates in southern Germany, especially for robbery. The results of the spatial regression analyses indicate that for the nation at large, Kreise with high robbery and assault rates tend to be those with comparatively high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and a more urbanized environment, findings consistent with those commonly reported with data for areal units in the USA. We also observe net regional effects for the south in the regression models that pose puzzles for further inquiry into the German case, and “null effects” of the eastern region that have implications for more general debates of the potentially criminogenic consequences of the transition to market economies.     

The Effect of Police Personnel Levels on Crime Clearance Rates: A Cross-National Analysis

A recent upsurge in governmental concern about police efficiency has produced a plethora of evaluative studies. Most of these studies have assumed a relationship between police activity and crime that has been, during the past eight years, seriously questioned. The present study investigates this relationship by employing a cross-national sample to resolve past methodological problems. Based on previous literature, the social conflict, economic, and political factors that confound the relationship between police personnel levels and crime clearance effects are identified and then controlled through regression analysis.

The findings indicate that the number of police has a negative effect on clearance rates. However, its effect is minimal. In addition, the social structural characteristics of nations explain more variance in clearance rates than do the levels of police, as well as attenuate the observed relationship between the police personnel and crimes cleared by arrest. Of special interest is the finding that increased system openness as well as concern for political and civil rights positively affects clearance rates, a finding which runs counter to current justice thinking.     

Replicating Group-Based Trajectory Models of Crime at Micro-Places in Albany,NY

Objectives

Replicate two previous studies of temporal crime trends at the street block level. We replicate the general approach of group-based trajectory modelling of crimes at micro-places originally taken by Weisburd et al. (Criminology 42(2):283–322, 2004) and replicated by Curman et al. (J Quant Criminol 31(1):127–147, 2014). We examine patterns in a city of a different character (Albany, NY) than those previously examined (Seattle and Vancouver) and so contribute to the generalizability of previous findings.

Methods

Crimes between 2000 and 2013 were used to identify different trajectory groups at street segments and intersections. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models are used to identify the trajectories. Pin maps, Ripley’s K and neighbor transition matrices are used to show the spatial patterning of the trajectory groups.

Results

The trajectory solution with eight classes is selected based on several model selection criteria. The trajectory of each those groups follow the overall citywide decline, and are only separated by the mean level of crime. Spatial analysis shows that higher crime trajectory groups are more likely to be nearby one another, potentially suggesting a diffusion process.

Conclusions

Our work adds additional support to that of others who have found tight coupling of crime at micro-places. We find that the clustering of trajectories identified a set of street units that disproportionately contributed to the total level of crime citywide in Albany, consistent with previous research. However, the temporal trends over time in Albany differed from those exhibited in previous work in Seattle but were consistent with patterns in Vancouver.

     

Cause or Catalyst: The Interaction of Real World and Media Crime Models

The effect of exposure to media content containing criminal models is unresolved with two perspectives currently competing. One perspective perceives media provided models of crime functioning as direct causes of criminality or as crime triggers; the other sees media crime models serving as crime forming catalysts or as crime rudders. A study of copycat crime provided an opportunity to simultaneously weigh evidence for both models by examining the comparative roles of real world versus media provided crime models. Data obtained from the anonymous surveys of 574 male and female correctional inmates was employed. Results show that individual offenders, particularly young males, exposed to both real world and media crime model sources were at higher risk for copying criminal behaviors. While both real world and media sources contributed to predicting past inmate copycat behaviors, they also interacted significantly. With the additional enhancement of real world models, the media appear to form crime by providing instructional models to inclined individuals. The results did not support strong direct media exposure effects and the model of media as stylistic catalysts for crime was more supported. The media remains best perceived as a rudder for crime more than as a trigger.     

传销犯罪独立成罪的合理性及模式——兼评《刑法修正案（七）》

我国传统的传销定罪模式将非法经营罪作为传销的基础犯罪,这不符合传销行为多样性、客体多重性和目的多样性的特点.传销犯罪在我国刑法典中应当独立成罪,这有利于实现传销罪名与罪质的统一、扩大传销犯罪的惩治范围、实现与<禁止传销条例>的协调和避免不必要的国际贸易摩擦.在传销犯罪的立法模式上,<刑法修正案(七)>(草案)-稿采取的是预备式立法,二稿和<刑法修正案(七)>采取的是概括式立法.两稿在立法模式上仍存在一定不足,应综合采用概括式立法和预备式立法.     

Viewing the Crime Wave from the Inside: Perceived Rates of Extortion among Restauraeurs in Germany

The rarer and more serious a type of crime is, the more the public depends on mediated experiences, either via acquaintances or via the mass media. Prior criminological research has also made the point that although the media over-represent and dramatise certain crimes (e.g. by establishing and referring to so-called crime waves) the public perception shows some resistance to these influences and maintains a certain kind of resilience and validity of its own. The mass media discourse in 1990s Germany on extortion of restaurateurs (e.g. via protection rackets) is embedded in the wider interpretation frame of organised crime and is dominated by the assumption that for restaurateurs of foreign origin, especially in big cities, the confrontation is omnipresent. The following article presents the results of a survey of restaurateurs (n = 7,900, Winter 1995/96). In discussing the representativeness and validity of the reported direct, vicarious and perceived victimisation, it is suggested that the aggregate of the perceived victimisation is the most valid measure. However, the perception of the Lebenswelt-experts is far from the media's claim of a ubiquitous threat.