The prevention of nuclear war in a world of uncertainty

The simple treatment of complex issues in the nuclear world has created dangerously self-deceptive and sterile views of such conflict. Calculations of missile duels and other possible strategic interactions have led to analytic self-deception where the more simplified the calculation, the greater the distance between the atrocious abstraction and the incomprehensible reality for which it serves as a disguise. Fictionalizing about deterrence and its variants has led to intellectual and moral self-deception where the focus of the fiction has diverted attention and action from other likely ways in which a nuclear conflict could be initiated, such as accidents, conventional wars, or terrorism. Besides reexamining old and diversionary patterns of thought and action—cultural strait jackets—we need more fundamental investigations into ways in which the weapons of modern war might be made less dangerous, procedures to make crises reversible, and improved and creative mechanisms for reducing and limiting the spread of nuclear weapons.     

The time inconsistency of long constitutions: Evidence from the world

This article analyses the mechanisms establishing time consistency of constitutions. It explains why shorter and more locked constitutions are more likely to be time consistent (change less) and that long constitutions are more time inconsistent (change more, despite locking). Empirical evidence from all of the democratic countries in the world indicates that the length and locking of constitutions are not independent criteria, and that their combination leads to less time consistency. To address this inter‐relationship, a measure of time inconsistency (a combination of locking and amendment rate) is developed and it is demonstrated that it is connected with the length of constitutions. The article shows how time inconsistency is incompatible with theories of ‘constitutional amendment culture’ not only at the theoretical level, but also empirically. Finally, the article proves that the empirical finding that the length of constitutions is related to lower per capita income and higher corruption are not only in agreement with time inconsistency arguments, but this also extends beyond OECD countries to all democracies.     

The unanimity rule revisited: the case of revisions of hybrid constitutions

Unsolved issues of efficient public investment in stochastic-dynamic models of the economy are examined using results from incomplete markets general equilibrium theory. The analysis delivers two previously unarticulated findings. First, the equilibrium interest rate can be used to bound the socially optimal discount rate for a public investment. Second, a new non-market mechanism (CRM) that is welfare improving over alternatives in the Groves class is introduced. The second finding amends the well-known characterization theorem of Green and Laffont (Incentives in Public Decision-Making, North-Holland, New York, 1979) and identifies a new class of direct-revelation mechanisms for public goods provision in stochastic-dynamic settings.     

The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism

Public Choice - Economic interests are assumed to be the leading driver of political preferences, and various empirical studies have examined how economic conditions affect political views and...     

文化教学在大学英语教学中的重要性

我国历来的大学英语教学（大学公共外语教学的通称）十分重视语言形式（语音、基本词汇和语法）的教学,相对忽视文化背景知识的教学。文化背景知识的教学既可以帮助学生深刻理解语言形式,又可提高学生交际能力,在大学英语教学中具有十分重要的作用。     

Dilemmas in a general theory of planning

The search for scientific bases for confronting problems of social policy is bound to fail, becuase of the nature of these problems. They are wicked problems, whereas science has developed to deal with tame problems. Policy problems cannot be definitively described. Moreover, in a pluralistic society there is nothing like the undisputable public good; there is no objective definition of equity; policies that respond to social problems cannot be meaningfully correct or false; and it makes no sense to talk about optimal solutions to social problems unless severe qualifications are imposed first. Even worse, there are no solutions in the sense of definitive and objective answers.This is a modification of a paper presented to the Panel on Policy Sciences, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Boston, December 1969.     

The midterm referendum: The importance of attributions of responsibility

Analysts and commentators have long regarded midterm congressional elections as an interim evaluation of the president. Recent research has emphasized the effect of the individual qualities of congressional candidates on the vote. Both factors contributed to the 1982 congressional vote. However, the relative success of the Republican party in 1982 was made possible by the unwillingness of a majority of the electorate to attribute the country's economic problems to the administration. This attribution factor, implicitly ignored in most analyses of the effect of the economy on vote choices, is examined here.     

Small group decision making: The uncertain role of information in reducing uncertainty

Although decision-making analysis has been widely pursued in political science and other fields, most emphasize an outcome orientation, ignoring (or assuming away) the process by which decisions are made. This study treats the process of decision making at the small group level by applying the cognitive information processing model to the methods by which search behavior reduces uncertainty in the collective environment. After examining the theoretical constraints on search behavior, an experiment is performed on student subjects with two of the constraints—information level and decision rule—operationalized as treatment variables on the volume and type of search by individuals in a small group environment. The findings suggest that increasing information availability and requiring consensus decisions will increase search, but that subjects are easily overloaded with information, increasing—not reducing—their uncertainty about their decisions.     

虚拟实践论

实践活动伴随着人类漫长的发展过程,而科技革命与实践活动密切相关、互为功用。每一次科技革命都会催生一种新的理论形态和观念。虚拟实践就是随着计算机、网络和虚拟现实等现代信息技术手段的广泛应用而产生的一种新型实践形态和方式。虚拟实践是人类实践与技术革命交互作用的全新产物,是人类以往实践活动顺乎逻辑和历史发展的必然结果。以虚拟技术为技术支撑的虚拟实践活动在全新的空间开辟了人类实践前所未有的天地,把人类实践活动的范围扩大到一个全新的未知领域。     

人在康德先验感性论中的地位

一般地对康德在实践理性批判中主体的作用研究、探讨的较多,并且在此部分中主体的作用也更凸显,而在纯粹理性批判中则不那么突出。但是,辩证的讲,在纯粹理性批判中,主体的作用也是很明显的,其对康德纯粹理性批判理论、特别是后来的实践理性理论的确立奠定了坚实的基础。本文以先验感性论为支点、以其时空学说为主要内容着重探讨康德在先验感性论中如何对主体即人的作用进行凸显的。     

The emergence of administrative science in the USSR: Toward a theory of organizational emulation

Emulation is a specific linkage pattern between an entity and its inter-organizational environment. It represents a genre of adaptation, i.e., purposive, goal-oriented activity designed to recreate the behavioral attributes in a referent. Emulation can also be symbolic—a legitimization of change within the receiving system. Soviet administrative theorists have consciously drawn from American experience in order to promote and develop a counterpart discipline at home. This constitutes an emulative linkage pattern. The metamorphosis of administrative science in the USSR is charted here as sequential stages in the innovation process—initiation, implementation, institutionalization. Emulation has had a specific impact at each stage.The general arguments in this essay have been abstracted from various parts of my doctoral dissertation, The Science of Management in the USSR: Emulation and the Role of Americanizers. A six-month trip to the Soviet Union was an invaluable opportunity to gather research materials and consult with specialists.     

Explaining success in South Asian rural development: The importance of routine

The article compares the Training and Visit System of Agricultural Extension in India with the Anand-type dairy cooperatives (India) and the Grameen Bank (Bangladesh) to explain the reasons for their success. In attempting an explanation of such microsuccess in an environment of macrofailure, the article lays emphasis on tailoring the programmes to the needs and social capabilities of the rural people. The services offered are perfected to a routine, thus encouraging the recipients of the services to respond on a regular and systematic basis. The recipients of these programmes see success in terms of increased benefits, greater participation and ultimately increased incomes. Their success has led to their widespread adoption elsewhere in the Third World.     

Towards a contextual theory of innovation

A contextual theoretical strategy should be pursued to overcome past deficiencies in the study of organizational innovation. The strategy is likely to lead to greater success in efforts to promote innovation. The heart of this strategy is to define the types of innovation processes at work and the contexts in which they operate. There are at least three innovation processes at work which operate in contexts defined by organizational and environmental characteristics and by the type of innovation under consideration.