Conflict-Induced Displacement and Violence in Colombia

Recent work in the refugee literature finds that both insurgents hiding in camps and aid to refugees may increase violence. This article assesses whether this theory applies to Conflict Induced Displaced People (IDPs). Specifically, it asks if the arrival of IDPs increases leftist violence in Colombia. Colombia has high numbers of IDPs, significant insurgent violence, and available sub-national data to enable an examination of IDP flows on leftist violence. In the Colombian case, the arrival of conflict induced displaced people is not associated with increased leftist violence.     

The Politics of Urban Violence: Challenges for Development in the Global South

At the start of the twenty-first century, urban violence represents one of the most significant challenges for development across much of the Global South. This essay introduces a new framework for analyzing the politics of urban violence that combines a subnational comparative perspective with multi-method and multi-level approaches. The empirical contributions to this special issue analyze the politics of urban violence and its consequences for development in major cities across Africa, Latin America, and South Asia. First, the contributors show how variation in the nature of relations between states and local armed actors poses distinct implications for several outcomes, including patterns of violence, associational life, and economic markets. Second, the volume unpacks how the integration of developing world cities into both licit and illicit global economic flows impacts local patterns of and political responses to violence. And, third, the contributions identify how actors and interests that operate at multiple territorial and institutional scales influence the local dynamics and consequences of urban violence.     

Enforcement Process Tracing: Forbearance and Dilution in Urban Colombia and Turkey

Cities are complex regulatory environments. Attempts to regulate urban behavior create opportunities for politicians to manipulate enforcement to win votes and reward supporters. While some politicians choose not to enforce regulations, or forbearance, others undercut their intent, or dilution. Empirical research on enforcement has lagged behind due to the identification challenges in distinguishing weak state capacity from political manipulations. We develop a structured approach to process tracing that follows enforcement decisions sequentially across bureaucracies and specifies statistical distributions as counterfactuals to identify the causes of limited enforcement. We illustrate these strategies through original data on enforcement against squatters in urban Colombia and the provision of building permits in urban Turkey. Enforcement process tracing helps to document a form of distributive politics that is common to cities in the developing world.     

日本政治中政商关系的历史传承性

日本商界在日本战后政治决策中占有重要的地位,不仅影响着日本经济态势的发展,而且直接参与了政治过程的运作。本文通过对日本商界的起源和发展的分析,揭示其与日本政治结成的紧密关系,以及这种政商关系所具有的历史传承性。本文认为,日本商界从最初就与政治密不可分,这种政商关系在二战后初期,即盟军占领时期非但没有被消除,反而在战后的几十年中更加发展,并成为维护日本保守政治的一个重要角色。     

当代中国城市偏向政策的政治根源

中外学界对发展中国家现代化进程中城市偏向政策的成因有不同的解释.本文认为,当代中国城市偏向政策的形成有特殊的政治原因.在改革前的"全能主义决策模型"中,统治精英阶层对农民的意识形态偏见,促成了阻止农民影响国家政治决策的制度安排,为城市偏向政策的顺利实施提供了政治保障;在改革以来的"分裂式权威主义模型"中,中国城市偏向政策延续的动力主要不是来自普通市民对国家政治系统的压力,而是来自行政管理者阶层.中国的城市偏向政策将在城市-官僚主导的改革进程中,随着普通市民社会福利水平的相对下降而逐渐消失.     

Violence and Urban Order in Nairobi, Kenya and Lagos, Nigeria

This article examines the interaction between politics and informal institutions of order in two of Africa’s most violent and crime-ridden cities, Nairobi, Kenya and Lagos, Nigeria. In both cities, governments have failed to provide basic public services and security to citizens, especially to those who reside in informal settlements or slums. A variety of informal institutions, including ethnic militia and block-level vigilante groups, fulfill security and enforcement roles in these relatively ungoverned urban spaces. This article examines the differences in the character and organization of these “specialists in violence,” and it argues that these differences are often integrally linked to the political strategies and aims of elites. The article makes two primary contributions to existing understandings of informal order in violent cities in the developing world. First, I find that organizations seemingly organically linked to local communities, such as ethnic militia, are strongly influenced by national-level political struggles. Violent organizations can gain a foothold and degree of legitimacy by appealing to traditional loyalties, including ethnicity, but organizations with these advantages are also attractive targets for cooptation by political actors. Secondly, both direct state repression and electoral use of militia lead to more predatory forms of interaction between these groups and local communities.     

The Politics of Urban Bias: Rural Threats and the Dual Dilemma of Political Survival

Urban bias in government policy is a common phenomenon in many developing countries. Bates (1981) has famously argued that the wish to industrialize, paired with the political clout of urban residents, results in distinctly anti-rural policies. Empirically, however, the strength of urban bias varies substantially across countries and over time. This paper explains this variation by developing an argument about a countervailing force to urban bias: the threat of a rural insurgency. The direction of urban and rural bias is a function of the political threat that geographically distinct groups pose to the survival of the central government. When the rural periphery lacks collective action capacity, urban bias emerges, but if there exists a credible threat of rural violence, urban bias is diminished. I test this proposition and competing explanations using data on net taxation in the agricultural sector, covering up to 55 low- and middle-income countries from 1955 to 2007. The results show a strong relationship between past territorial conflict (which proxies for credible rural threats) and lower levels of urban bias in the developing world. The findings are robust to alternative model specifications, measures, and sensitivity analyses.     

The Politics of Local Policy-Making in Urban Bangladesh: The Case of Rajshahi City Corporation

Some of the contemporary writings provide a different outlook in adopting institutional analysis by claiming that society-rooted politics is foremost in shaping the third world's political institutions. This paper, drawing on an empirical study, puts special emphasis on understanding the nature of society rooted politics in designing the local government system in Bangladesh and how it has shaped local policy-making. By focusing on the policy-making of a municipal corporation, this paper identifies the actors and factors and their roles in the urban local governance process in Bangladesh.     

On the Relationship between Violent Conflict and Wages in Colombia

We analyse how forced displacements caused by violent conflict are related to the wages of workers in Colombia. Using data from the Quality of Life Survey (2011–2014), we analyse the differences in wages between those forced by violence to move to other regions, and those who moved for other reasons. We apply Propensity Score Matching techniques to compare workers from the two groups, finding that forced displacement is related to decreases of between 10 and 29 per cent in the wages of males, and between 18 and 37 per cent in the wages of females, relative to their counterparts. Thus, forced displacements are related to poorer labour market outcomes in terms of wages.