The lawless presidency: Economic crisis and democratic accountability in Mexico, 1970–94

The Mexican government has adopted policies of market‐oriented reform since 1982 which have for the most part been praised by professional economists. Mexico even joined the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1994. However the performance of the economy has been disappointing. Yet a failure to achieve any real per capita economic growth over an extended period is unusual among Latin American countries which have consistently pursued policies of market‐oriented economic reform. A large part of the explanation has to do with the character of Mexico's political institutions, most notably a lack of democratic accountability. The unmistakable trend toward greater democracy since 1982 has so far been expressed principally in terms of greater honesty and competitiveness in the electoral arena. But there has been no significant reform of the executive branch of government, which has for many years been run on authoritarian principles. This makes it difficult for the Mexican government to control corruption, limit the economic consequences of political shocks and prevent the shifts in political power which occur at the end of each sexenio from destabilising the economy.     

Sanctions and Democracy

How do economic sanctions affect democratization, and should the former be used to promote the latter? Imposing economic pain on large swaths of an already vulnerable population in order to nudge democratic change poses thorny issues. Does it work, in terms of securing democratic outcomes? Even if it did, is this way of achieving change justifiable? We explore the connections between the normative and positive sides of the argument for sanctions in light of theoretical and normative progress in two decades of post-Cold War research on democracy. We argue that some sanctions policies used under specific conditions are more justifiable, but there are other sanctions policies that are less justifiable.     

南海航行安全对世界经济的影响

南海航行安全对亚太经济和与亚太经济联系密切的世界其它各地的经济发展都有重大影响,由于南海地区的海盗问题与周边国家的政治、经济、政治状况有直接联系,并且受到美、日、印等国对东南亚地区政策的影响,国际间打击海盗的合作和推动地区政治、经济、安全机制的建立成为当务之急。     

从强制仲裁到劳动法庭:印度尼西亚劳动争议解决机制的晚近发展

后苏哈托时期,印度尼西亚废除了苏哈托政府时期的压制性劳工政策,并对其劳动争议解决机制进行重大改革,废除强制仲裁,建立劳动法庭,鼓励争议的自愿性解决。然而,由于缺乏法治和自治传统、经济落后等原因,改革的实效并不理想。然而,印度尼西亚的改革展示了一个转型社会劳动争议解决机制改革的经验和问题,值得思考和借鉴。     

关于俄罗斯经济政策与发展路径的研究

本世纪以来俄罗斯推行"国家资本主义"经济发展路径,俄罗斯国内对此存在分歧。在对内经济政策方面,俄罗斯高层的主要分歧是关于市场经济主体——国有公司还是私营经济在俄市场经济中的地位及其出路问题;对外政策上的分歧是关于俄经济发展是否需要依赖西方。"新普京时代"是俄罗斯发展与变革的时期,普京提出的俄罗斯新经济政策要点是以创新带动俄罗斯经济发展,俄罗斯既定的"国家资本主义"经济发展路径能否发生变化,普京的新经济政策能否得以实施,需要给予进一步观察。     

Security Threats,Enemy-Contingent Policies,and Economic Development in Dictatorships

In this article, I introduce, discuss, and formalize the argument that the type of security threat a dictatorial regime faces has implications for economic policy making and, consequently, economic outcomes. Dictators who mainly face internal threats often have incentives to conduct policies that are harmful to economic development, like underproviding productive public investment. However, dictators who mainly face external threats are more likely to conduct economic development–enhancing policies. The type of security threat facing a dictator thus contributes to explaining the large variation in economic development among dictatorships. The argument finds empirical support in cases from different geographical regions and historical periods. One particularly illustrative example, addressed in the article, is Japan in the nineteenth century, where the sharply increased severity of external threats from Western countries induced the selection of development-enhancing policies in the last half of the century.     

转型后俄乌两国经济联系探析

苏联时期俄罗斯与乌克兰两个加盟共和国间的经济联系是一个有机的整体，苏联解体后，俄乌转变为两个相互间有着内在紧密联系的独立国家。由于乌克兰特殊的地缘经济政治地位，与欧洲经济一体化也同样是乌克兰优先发展的对外政策，在政治因素的影响下两国在能源、农产品和军工领域的合作进程发展缓慢。从长远来看，发展两国间的内在经济联系，促进两国间多领域合作是符合两国经济发展共同利益的方向。     

NATO expansion to Northern Europe

Finland and Sweden have been in the forefront of bilateral aid efforts to the neighbouring Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) especially in the promotion of economic and regional integration. Although Finland and Sweden have refused to contemplate NATO membership themselves, their neighbours are all seeking to enhance their security through NATO membership. It is unlikely that the Baltic States will become part of the Alliance in the short‐term, but new forms of military co‐operation between NATO and its former adversaries are taking place. With the regional security situation in greater flux than at any time during the post‐World War II period, Finland and Sweden are thus being asked to reevaluate their traditional policies of neutrality and non‐alignment. This article seeks to show some of the contemporary security problems facing Finland and Sweden and the range of policies which both Finland and Sweden can pursue.     

中越两国跨境经济合作区政策比较初探——以中越凭祥一同登跨境经济合作区为例

广西努力推进中越跨国经济合作区已经有几年时间了,但是遇到很多问题和困难,建设进展和效果远低于期望。其中的重要原因之一就是中越两国的跨境经济合作区政策的差异性,导致双方发展错位或者说发展不同步。因此,有必要比较两国的有关政策,通过克服这些差异,加快推进中越跨境经济合作区的步伐。     

Political factors affecting cooperation between Italy,Greece and Turkey

The rise of political Islam in the EU's southern neighbourhood represents a political as well as conceptual challenge to the EU as a foreign policy actor. In the past, the EU reacted to this challenge based on its essentialist perception of political Islam and its overarching interest in regional stability and security. However, the growing salience of ‘contingencist’ interpretations of political Islam and the resolution of the EU's democratisation-stabilisation dilemma in the wake of the Arab Spring have recently provided an opportunity for greater engagement and cooperation. This has enabled a switch in EU policies from a strategy of containment to a strategy of engagement. Despite this, problems remain as the EU continues to expect Islamist actors to adjust to its own discursive framework and as intra-European divisions revive as a result of the renewal of secular-religious divisions in the neighbourhood. This will complicate EU attempts to build a new partnership with Islamist democracies and will fuel old stereotypes and animosities.     

中国和越南边境政策的发展、演变及对云南的影响

中国和越南实施改革开放政策以来,加快了边境地区的经济社会发展。中国与越南国情不同,所实行的边境政策也不同。但两国都注重促进边境地区的经济社会发展,两国在中越边境地区实行的边境政策,都有利于云南边境地区的社会经济发展与和谐社会的构建。     

新自由主义、东亚模式与经济发展

当前经济发展战略的分歧主要是新自由主义与东亚模式之争,前者执著于静态的比较优势,后者迷信于威权政治。对于处于工业化初期阶段的国家来说,自由贸易可以利用发达国家的扩散效应与产业转移,促进本国技术进步,改善贸易条件,节约技术开发的资金与时间,但对于进入工业化中期的国家来说,后发优势递减,技术引进日益困难,自由贸易将导致长期的贸易条件恶化;权威政府则由于社会资本的消蚀,民主法制的不健全,也产生了严重失灵现象,并进一步加剧市场失灵,双重失灵使东亚模式已不可持续。只有在建立民主宪政体制,制约政府失灵的基础上,通过有限贸易保护和积极的产业政策来纠正市场失灵,提高自主技术开发能力,后发国家才能改善本国贸易条件,加速工业化的发展。     

The New Economic Bilateralism in Southeast Asia: Region-Convergent or Region-Divergent?

A new pattern of bilateralism is evident in Southeast Asianeconomic diplomacy, and this may be broadly viewed from extra-regionaland intra-regional perspectives. Regarding the former, an increasingnumber of states from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) group have engaged in the Asia-Pacific's new bilateralfree trade agreement project trend, and two ASEAN member states– Singapore and Thailand – have been at its forefront.Regarding the latter dimension, recent developments in intra-ASEANdiplomacy have revealed the emergence of a Singapore–Thailandbilateral axis or alliance on matters of Southeast Asian economicregionalism. These two dimensions of economic bilateralism arestudied in relation to their implications for Southeast Asianor ASEAN-led regionalism. In this context, region-convergentbilateralism can make positive contributions to the developmentof regionalism, whereas region-divergent bilateralism essentiallyundermines regional community-building endeavours. This formsthe conceptual framework for studying the impact of Singaporeand Thailand's active bilateral economic diplomacy upon ASEAN'sown regional economic projects, such as the ASEAN Free TradeArea (AFTA), and also on ASEAN as an organization for fosteringSoutheast Asian economic regionalism generally. It is contendedthat based on both the deeper strategic intentions behind Singapore'sand Thailand's foreign economic policies and wider internationalpolitical economy considerations the region-divergent outcomesare more likely to arise within Southeast Asia from the economicbilateralism they are currently championing.     

Zimbabwean Indigenisation and the Shadow Economy of Cinematic Production

ABSTRACT

In recent years, Zimbabwe has suffered a political and economic crisis, which has generated impulses that have traumatised the country's film industry, among many other sectors. Resultantly, Zimbabwe's cinematic context of production has been reimagined and reconfigured in recent years. The southern African country's ruling elite, during former president Robert Mugabe's tenure, championed controversial policies of indigenisation in economic sectors, partly as a way of countering external economic and political hostilities. This article explores how the Zimbabwean film economy has responded to postcolonial indigenisation impulses and how the production context has developed parallel to or in tandem with this reality. It teases out the challenges and prospects posed by impulses of indigenisation in Zimbabwe to the country's fledgling film production industry by analysing the video-film production value chain post-2000, when the indigenisation agenda emerged and was consolidated. Informed by the theorisation of the shadow economies of cinema, the study employed in-depth interviews to collect data from purposively selected Zimbabwean filmmakers and policymakers. Thematic analysis was used to analyse this data. The study shows that indigenisation has been a pragmatic response to the economic trauma facing the film industry, although it has, in turn, sent out its own traumatic impulses that continue to affect the industry's structure and aesthetic.     

朝鲜经济政策的变化对长吉图通道建设的影响

在大图们江区域合作开发及长吉图先导区建设过程中,对外通道建设一直是合作发展的关键节点和制约因素。长期以来,对外通道建设发展缓慢的一个重要原因就是受制于外部政策环境的制约。但2010年以来,特别是金正日当年两次访华以来,朝鲜对外经济政策发生了一系列积极的变化,尽管这种变化尚有不确定性的一面,但我们只要抓住其确定性的一面,并在条约、制度及资金等保障措施上锁定这一确定性,将有利于中朝合作加快长吉图先导区对外通道的建设与发展。     

Organizing to rule: structure,agent, and explaining presidential management styles in Africa

Recent studies of comparative presidentialism have emphasized the importance of informal relationships between presidents and other political actors in explaining how presidents build governing coalitions. What has generally been under-investigated in the literature is how the characteristics of “presidents as agents” impact how they interact with other political actors – in particular, how presidents relate to their cabinets in terms of turnover and inclusiveness. We hypothesize that presidents who were former rebel leaders will behave very differently from presidents that do not have such backgrounds. To test our hypotheses, we collected data from 36 countries that are classified either as presidential or semi-presidential systems in Africa with 93 individual presidential administrations from 1990 to 2009. We found that presidents who were former rebel leaders were less likely to have major cabinet turnovers than other presidents. However, former rebel leaders did not have less politically inclusive cabinets (at least in partisan terms) but did have less ethnically inclusive cabinets than presidents with other backgrounds. The results suggest that agent characteristics, that is, the previous experiences of the president as a decision maker, are as important as the structural constraints he or she faces.     

A distributional theory of economic democracy

In the twentieth century, while political democracy triumphed economic democracy failed both as an idea and in practice. A case for reviving the idea of economic democracy is made in terms of protecting political democracy. Economic democracy has conventionally been understood as a matter of bringing economic power under the control of collective political power. The idea is here reformulated as a matter of redistributing economic power between persons, of giving people a share in economic power directly rather than through elected representatives. Political democracy is assumed, which is to say that political power is under the control of the middle class. The question then is under what conditions the middle class might want and think it could use political power to redistribute economic power. The conclusions are that there is in advanced capitalist democracies considerable scope for the redistribution of economic power between the rich and the middle class. As for the empowerment of the poor, however, anti-poverty policies beyond the containment of poverty are unlikely to emerge today in countries where that did not happen under earlier historical conditions.     

Operationalizing Social Capital: A Strategy to Enhance Communities'"Capacity to Concert"

This article addresses a concern increasingly being voiced in the donor establishment: fifty years of development assistance programs have failed to produce conclusive evidence that they can foster sustainable economic and social development in poor countries. The nature of donor programs is such that it emphasizes economic remedies and orients aid to finite projects. Yet recent evidence suggests that sustained development may be more a continued civic process whereby communities form their capacity to come to their own understandings about public ways of behaving and relating, whereby they develop their capacity to concert . This translates into a practical capability to pinpoint underlying problems, assess alternative approaches, and devise solutions most likely to be sustained. This micro capability may also have important macroeconomic implications in terms of institutional predictability and—through it—in terms of scale economies, transaction costs, transparency, incentive to innovate, and climate to implement public policies. The article suggests an alternative approach to development assistance and offers concrete recommendations to donors.     

How Many Europes? Fragmentation in the European Space since the Great Recession

ABSTRACT

Since the Great Recession started in the late 2000s, the European Union (EU) has experienced an acute crisis that has triggered internal divisions among EU members. Three factors can help shed light on this tendency towards political fragmentation: economics and finance, culture, and territory. Each of these reveals a specific ‘geography’, in terms of policies and narratives, of the current malaise regarding the EU project and the limits of the Union in addressing issues important for the domestic debates of its members. Such discontent, as well as anti-EU sentiment, fuels strong political reactions including populism and anti-elitism that could further fragment the EU in the future.     

马克里经济政策的回顾与评述

在马克里总统执政期间,阿根廷经济增长乏力,通货膨胀居高不下,比索大幅度贬值。尽管马克里政府采取了一系列振兴经济的政策措施,但效果并不如意。在民粹主义盛行的阿根廷,新自由主义经济政策缺乏良好的社会政治基础,许多看似美好的政策实施起来阻力重重。贸易自由化没有显著提高阿根廷出口额,金融自由化也无助于吸引更多外国直接投资进入阿根廷,却给短期投机资本进入和逃离阿根廷创造了便利条件。货币政策不能有效扼制通货膨胀,外汇及资本管理政策未能有效阻止国际储备流失,也未能控制本币持续贬值。日趋紧缩的财政收入政策抑制了企业的生产性投资意愿,也降低了对外资的吸引力;过多的社会福利支出削弱了政府对基础设施等公共产品的供给能力,债务增长显著提升了债务违约和本币进一步贬值的风险,短期内阿根廷经济实现复苏的难度较大。持续的经济衰退不仅导致前总统马克里未能实现连任,也给新当选的费尔南德斯政府留下了诸多难题。不断增加的贫困人口和民粹主义的再次兴起,将给未来阿根廷的经济改革和政策调整带来重重阻力,并可能对阿根廷长期经济发展带来深远影响。