萨尔瓦多微型企业的发展与有关政策建议

如同其他拉美国家一样 ,中美洲小国萨尔瓦多的非正规经济近年来也有很大发展 ,并有学者对作为非正规经济重要组成部分的微型企业进行了深入研究。这些研究资料翔实 ,同时提供了一条研究这一问题的思路和框架。现将有关研究成果综述如下。一　微型企业的数量和分布情况萨尔瓦多从 1 996年开始将劳动者不超过 1 0人、年销售额不超过 6 0万科郎的生产单位定义为微型企业。根据这一标准 ,1 996年全国有微型企业 3 975 81家 ,其中 2 83 76 5家设在城市地区 ,1 1 3 81 6家设在农村地区。 1 998年微型企业的数量明显增加 ,共有 46 871 7家 ,其中 3 …     

Mano Dura: El Salvador responds to gangs

Although it is increasingly recognised that violence, crime, and associated fear are challenging democratic governance in Latin America, less attention has been paid to the ways in which state responses to crime contribute to the problem. By analysing El Salvador as a case study, this article addresses three key interconnected issues in the debate. First, it explores the dynamic of violence. It then locates youth gangs as violent actors within this context. Finally, it addresses the state response to the growing phenomenon of youth gangs. It is argued that current strategies, dubbed Mano Dura – Iron Fist, employed by the Salvadoran government serve to reveal the fragility of the democratic project, exposing the underside of authoritarianism that remains key to Salvadoran political life in the transitional process from civil war to peace.     

The Structure of Negotiation: Lessons from El Salvador for Contemporary Conflict Resolution

During more than a decade of violent conflict (1980–1992) involving the military, rebel forces, and paramilitary "death squads," El Salvador suffered some 75,000 casualties, mostly civilians. After three years of negotiations, the government and the largest rebel group signed a historic comprehensive peace accord that brought an end to the war and instituted wide-reaching political and social reforms. This agreement, and the peace process that produced it, has been widely hailed as a successful example of a negotiated end to civil war. In order to understand the conditions that led to the 1992 Chapultepec Peace Accords ending the war, this article tests ripeness theory in the context of the Salvadoran peace process.
This article affirms the validity of theories of ripeness and the mutually hurting stalemate as structural explanations for the initiation of dialogue and notes the role of "indicators of ripeness" in forcing the parties to recognize a hurting stalemate that may already exist. It also proposes several hypothesized explanations for the effectiveness of the Salvadoran negotiations themselves. These explanations include the presence of strong, empowered policy entrepreneurs on both sides with the political will and capability to make credible commitments; the combination of internal and external pressure for a negotiated solution that raised the cost of defection; and the active involvement, based on consent of both parties, of a neutral, empowered, and credible mediator who provided both technical assistance and vigilance to move the process forward. After analyzing the Salvadoran case through this theoretical lens, the article applies the same concepts to contemporary conflict cases such as Iraq and Colombia, discussing how the lessons learned in El Salvador do and do not provide instructive guidance for managing civil conflicts today.     

Peace-building and business elites in Guatemala and El Salvador: explaining the discursive ‘institutional turn’

ABSTRACT

The local business elites of El Salvador were generally in favour of the peace agreement and supported its negotiation and implementation in 1992, while in Guatemala the private sector reluctantly supported the peace process and, after the peace agreements were signed in 1996, the private sector sought to obstruct parts of its implementation. In the aftermath of the peace accords, business elites united around an ideology espousing a minimal state and a focus on market solutions to social problems. Although welcoming the security-related measures in the peace accords, business elites have often obstructed transformations towards more inclusive and democratic societies. However, in recent years there has been a change in discourse among influential business associations towards recognition of the need for strong state institutions and the need for institutionalised mechanisms for dialogue to find solutions to social problems. In this article, we seek to shed light on the significance of this discursive turn for continued peace-building.     

Textbook citizens: Education for democracy and political culture in el Salvador

Political education can play a crucial role in the process of democratization precisely because it is moulding the norms and expectations of the ‘ordinary’ citizen. After identifying three politico‐cultural obstacles to democratization, ‐ exclusion, violence and institutional manipulation ‐ the article explains how education for democracy programmes might undermine these obstacles. An assessment of several projects follows, including a new school curriculum and non‐governmental organization programmes among young people and poor communities. Given the enthusiasm shown towards such initiatives, it is paradoxical that levels of formal political participation via the parties are very low. The article explores the credibility gap of the parties, especially notable during elections, and which is leading the parties to respond by adopting more participatory practices at the base. El Salvador is in an advantageous position precisely because of its greatest problem: the lack of a liberal democratic history which is now allowing ordinary citizens to ‘create’ their democracy from scratch and to imagine for themselves a new identity as citizens.     

Changing Hydropolitical Relations in the Nile Basin: A Protracted Transition

A new hydro-political order is emerging in the Nile Basin. Upstream riparian states have improved their bargaining power vis-à-vis downstream countries by adopting a common position in the negotiations over a new framework agreement to govern the utilisation of the Nile waters. Some upstream riparians have unilaterally constructed hydraulic projects that threaten Egypt’s hegemonic position in the basin, the most notable of which is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Whether these developments will lead to a more equitable utilisation of water resources and a more cooperative order will depend on the policies of the riparian states, especially in the Eastern Nile. Respect of the Declaration of Principles on the GERD signed between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan could help build trust between the three countries after years of tensions around the project. Beyond that, a basin-wide plan for the utilisation of water resources would not only maximise the benefits from the river and address the common challenges facing the basin, but also reduce the political costs of tensions on future projects.     

中美关系:平稳过渡的一年

文章认为,2005年的中美关系走势显示了“9·11”事件后中美关系新阶段的特点:中美关系的实质没变,两国的共同利益没有减少,合作的领域也没有缩小,但两国之间的问题和麻烦却有所增加。作者最后还在认识层面提出了自己的观点:在对中美关系的继续稳定和发展抱有信心的同时,也要对两国关系中可能出现的种种问题做好充分的准备。     

A Friend Indeed? From Tobruk to El Alamein: The American Contribution to Victory in the Desert

The article offers a re-evaluation of American reinforcement for the Eighth Army following the fall of Tobruk in June 1942, arguing that American arms and air power made a decisive, if largely unrecognized, contribution to the victory at El Alamein. Both British and American leaders, for their own reasons, glossed over the critical American component of this most quintessentially British victory, and historians have echoed this downplaying of American aid. The article sets these political and military events in the context of expanding American interest in the Middle East.     

Intersection of disability and gender: multi-layered experiences of Ethiopian women with disabilities

This article explores the intersection of disability and gender through the experiences of Ethiopian women with disabilities using household chores as an example. As these women are often hidden at home, little literature is available on them. Thus this article aims to highlight the lived experiences of women with disabilities who are or have been at home. The interviewed women introduce peer support as an important means to increase their self-esteem and face stigma in their daily lives in a positive manner through dialogue and negotiation. The paper further suggests employing women with disabilities as a means to enable them to play a significant role in development cooperation by changing the status quo towards equality.     

NGOs and multi-layered management of protected resources in Belize and Malaysia

Constrained largely by lack of resources – technical, financial, legal, and/or administrative – governments in developing countries often create multi-layered management structures to regulate and monitor protected resources. Such structures are created when non-government organisations are given authority to monitor and/or manage certain aspects of a protected natural or indigenous resource. Other aspects, often regulatory, remain under the management of government. Using case studies from Belize and Malaysia, the research reported here suggests that the multi-layered management structures created between NGOs and governments in developing countries often encourage chaotic monitoring, reactive policies, and conflicts over jurisdiction as well as a dependency on the technical, financial, and/or legal resources of NGOs.     

中东欧与俄罗斯经济转型十年:对比与借鉴

中东欧和俄罗斯的经济转型已经走过10年历程.本文以中东欧和俄罗斯10年经济转型为研究对象,首先运用比较研究的方法,依据统计资料对中东欧和俄罗斯各自的经济转型绩效进行了概括性评价.指出,虽然中东欧和俄罗斯的经济市场化在制度体制的转型方面取得了一定成就,但考虑到制度转型的不良经济绩效,经济转型的综合绩效是不能令人满意的.其中中东欧与俄罗斯这个经济转型群体在绩效方面又表现出差异性,并在此基础上对比分析了中东欧与俄罗斯之间经济转型绩效差异的主客观原因,对这些国家的经济转型经验教训进行了概括性总结.     

东欧国家10年政治体制转轨

从1989年至今,整个东欧国家实行政治经济变革已走过10个年头.在政治转轨方面,虽然各国发展极不平衡,但它们的政治体制已一改日貌.可以说,所有东欧国家都基本确立了新的政治体制,即实行西方式的多党议会民主制.由于西方国家的政治制度在具体体制上千差万别,东欧国家的现行政治制度在具体体制上也不尽相同.例如,在政体方面,东欧国家都实行内阁制,但各国政府(总理)的产生方式及其权限,立法机关组成的类型及其权限,以及总统的产生方式、任期和权限等都各不相同.另外,虽然大多数东欧国家现行政治体制已开始正常运作,但仍存在许多亟待解决的问题.因此,在政治转轨方面,特别是要使现行政治体制完全成为西方式的"民主体制",整个东欧国家还有很长的路程要走.     

俄罗斯的社会转型:矛盾与问题

苏联解体以后,俄罗斯开始了全面的社会转型进程。但十多年的实践证明,俄罗斯的社会转型并未实现其政治精英的理想预期,而是引发了诸多的矛盾与问题。政治上,新国家体制的建设既缺乏周密设计的制度安排,又没有对民主观念充分尊重的政治文化,导致政局动荡,权力危机频发;经济上,全面私有化并未导致自由市场经济的建立,寡头坐大与国家资本主义的较量表明俄罗斯的经济发展模式尚未最终成型;社会上,权力重组并未根除旧体制的“顽疾”,新包装下所进行的实质上的“精英延续”使很多旧的管理模式与风格仍然保留在新体制中;外交上,“国家身份”的模糊使俄罗斯的对外政策始终处于矛盾之中。俄罗斯的转轨之痛对任何一个社会转型国家都是应该警醒的教训,总结俄社会转型过程中出现的矛盾与问题,有着重要的理论与现实意义。     

新加坡政治转型探究

新加坡在短短40余年内所取得的举世瞩目的社会经济成就 ,得到了世人的公认 ,然而对其民主政治建设却是褒贬不一 ,特别是西方学者非议颇多 ,如美国学者亨廷顿在《第三波》一书中把新加坡列为当时“唯一没有建立民主体制的非石油高收入国家” ,是“威权主义的儒教的反常现象” ,并且预言新加坡的这种政治制度将随着李光耀从政治舞台的消失而消失 ①。不过人们今天看到的却是另一番景象 ,正如李光耀2003年在其80岁生日宴会上所说 :“亨廷顿是错误的 ,新一代领导人不但会维护这个制度而且还要把新加坡带上另一个更高的发展阶段。” ②显然 ,李光…     

转型时期俄罗斯政治制度探析

俄罗斯实行宪政民主制度,要求有一部至高无上的宪法。并在宪法范围内推行民主制度,经过几年的改革,目前俄罗斯宪政制度的框架已基本建立起来。俄罗斯政治制度的最大特点是其过渡性,目前的民主化进程正处于由高度集权政治向民主政治过渡阶段——权威政治的初始阶段,要建立起真正现代意义上的民主政治制度还有漫长的道路要走。     

制度变迁与经济转轨--对原苏联和东欧10年经济转轨的思考

本文试图从制度变迁的角度探讨原苏联和东欧经济转轨的经验教训.本文对"华盛顿共识"与"后华盛顿共识"的讨论进行评论,认为其理论贡献在于强调了制度在经济转轨中的重要性.本文对制度变迁与经济转轨的相关问题进行了深入探讨,如制度遗产与经济转轨、制度变迁的特点及制度变迁中的最优选择与次优选择等,并指出产权、法治与责任政府是转轨国家取得成功的必要因素.     

香港经济转型中的人才战略研究

纵观世界经济社会的发展史,不论是英国的工业革命、美国经济的称雄,还是日本经济战后的崛起,都是优先发展科技和重视教育的结果.在某种意义上,谁在科技和教育方面领先,谁就会在发展方面领先,这正如美国经济学家熊彼特所说的"先驱者利润".如果说,科技和教育犹如推动经济前进和发展的两个轮子,连接两个轮子的轴是人才,那么,人力(或人才)资源①的开发就是决定这两个轮子速率的枢纽.因此,世界各国和各地区都十分重视人力资源战略.随着香港产业结构的转型、要素配置格局的改变、优势制度的不断强化以及国际人才竞争趋势的加剧,如何成功培养和吸引高科技人才与高附加值人才成为香港经济社会发展和成功转型的关键因素.而人才强港战略的推行可以将人力资源的开发提高到决定香港经济社会命脉发展的高度,可以为香港人力资源开发开辟空前广阔的发展空间.     

东北亚的历史变局与中国的战略调整——以中日力量转移为线索

近一个半世纪以来,东北亚经历了"数千年未有之变局"。造成这一局面的原因纷繁复杂,但有一个因素十分关键,那就是发生在中日间的力量转移。历史和东北亚地缘结构均证明:作为地区主体板块,中国的强大是东北亚地区稳定的核心要素,东北亚力量中心向中国转移有助于促进东北亚安全机制的形成。但是,随着中日力量转移进入持平期,中日安全关系也将更加敏感、更加复杂,变数加大。中国必须充分把握这一趋势,塑造强国心态,构建新的身份认同,更加主动地推动地区安全与共同发展。