Does Public Policy Crowd Out Private Contributions to Public Goods

It is sometimes claimed that individuals' contributions topublic goods are not motivated by economic costs and benefitsalone, but that people also have a moral or norm-basedmotivation. A number of studies indicate that such moral ornorm-based motivation might be crowded out, or crowded in, bypublic policy. This paper discusses some models that can yieldinsight into the interplay between economic and moral ornorm-based motivation for voluntary contributions to publicgoods, and compares their policy implications. We distinguishbetween five types of models: Altruism models, social normmodels, fairness models, models of commitment and thecognitive evaluation theory.     

Fiscal decentralization and government size

Numerous studies have attempted to model the possible factors contributing to universal growth in public sectors. This paper analyzes one device that appears capable of controlling some of that growth: fiscal decentralization. The results reported here also support the use of monopoly government assumptions in models of public policy     

Measuring the effectiveness of competition in defense procurement: A survey of the empirical literature

This article surveys the empirical literature that has attempted to measure the effects of competition in defense procurement. Its focus is on the conceptual underpinnings of the empirical models rather than on the technical aspects of the estimation procedures. While the empirical studies provide some valuable insight, the studies are flawed because they assume an implicit model of the procurement environment that is inconsistent with reasonable economic behavior on the part of defense contractors and seems to be contradicted by the evidence. In general, the predictive power of the empirical models is also limited by a program-by-program estimation approach in which only a handful of data points are available to estimate two or more parameters. These empirical models could be improved by the use of structural models that assume reasonable economic behavior and provide a theoretical basis for cross-program analyses.     

Estimating census and survey undercounts through multiple service contacts

Abstract

During the past decade a tremendous amount of work has been done on studying the homeless. The 1980s saw many disconnected city‐specific counts of the numbers of homeless that sought to obtain some information on their characteristics. As these studies began to be published, there was a growing awareness of the inadequacy of the methods available and the variety of interests that prompted the studies. The 1980s also saw the growth of new methods and models for counting and the coordination of efforts for multidisciplinary studies. This paper describes the development of new models for counting and new methods of sampling in time and space.     

公共基础设施项目的混合开发模式研究

虽然BOT模式已广泛用于公共基础设施项目的开发,但是,经济效益不佳的项目很难直接采用BOT模式;对于投资规模巨大的项目,采用BOT模式也难以获得竞争性投标。为了扩大BOT模式的应用范围,利用项目的可分解性,从理论上探讨了项目的混合开发模式。按照项目的不同分解方式,把混合开发模式分为双合同策略混合开发模式和多合同策略混合开发模式两大类。通过北京地铁四号线和宜泸渝高速公路项目的案例分析,不但剖析了混合开发模式的优缺点,而且证明了混合开发模式比单纯的BOT模式具有更大的灵活性、更广的应用范围,可以克服BOT模式的局限性,具有广阔的应用前景。     

The empirical application of the spatial theory of voting in multiparty systems with random utility models

Spatial models of voting predominate in the formalization of political decisions and continue to be a growth industry in political science. But strict empirical applications of this theory have been rare. Only recently, conditional discrete choice models have been proposed to fill the gap between formal and empirical models and to predict the individual voting decision in multi-candidate/multiparty contests on the basis of the spatial model. This article highlights several flexible features of these models that are well known in transportation economics and applied marketing science but not yet discussed in the electoral studies community. Empirical illustrations are provided on the basis of (nested) multinomial logit.     

Use of a priori-a posteriori models of change in policy analysis: Applications to simulating the white flight phenomenon

Theory is the foundation of policy studies in the social sciences; its specification via a model is a key element in the selection of appropriate methodologies to study policy. Many policy analysts, due to their professional training and the availability of computer software, sometimes fail to distinguish between theory which is a priori based or theory that is a posteriori based; hence they tend to develop a dependence on one type of methodology in their studies. The purpose of this study is to examine empirically how this important dichotomy might lead to different methods of analysis and to possibly erroneous conclusions. In some cases, the poor selection of research methods severely limits the range of findings and insights available to the policy analyst. The applications of a priori and a posteriori based models to educational policy studies of white flight are presented and the results compared to underscore the importance of recognizing the distinctions between a priori and a posteriori models.     

Policy analysis as discourse

The field of policy analysis encompasses a greater diversity of practices than is commonly appreciated. Many recent revisions agree with the postmodern dictum that analytic studies are socially constructed and propose some form of discourse for formulating policy. This article compares three theoretical perspectives on discourse: analytic discourse, which draws on multiple theories and data sources; critical discourse, which emphasizes critical reflection and links evidence to value discussions; and persuasive discourse, which focuses on the role of ideas and persuasion by policy entrepreneurs. Analytic discourse has had the most impact on the practice of analysis, but the other two literatures have had some influence and address important issues. Critical discourse is sensitive to the structural biases in policy research, and persuasive discourse links the practice of analysis to opportunities in the policy arena. The author seeks to make us more conscious of alternative theories, while emphasizing the role of discourse in all three models and the linkages between policy design and the policy process.     

The Power of Money: Global Capital and Policy Choices in Developing Countries

Extant studies of the impact that international phenomena have on policy choices, and those focused on the political economy of exchange-rate regimes in particular, are incomplete because they do not consider the effect that reliance on global capital has on the policy preferences of domestic groups. Consequently, they cannot explain why some newly emerging market countries pursue fixed exchange regimes under political and economic conditions—such as recently completed elections, uncompetitive export sectors, and poor national economic performance—in which others have altered their policies. I argue that reliance on different types of foreign capital generates distinct capital-specific policy preferences. Furthermore, rather than simply mimicking the preferences of foreign investors, domestic groups are likely to promote policies that reduce their capital-specific risks and vulnerabilities. Panel logit models of exchange-rate regimes in emerging market countries from 1973 through 2000 demonstrate that higher levels of democracy bolster these effects .     

Does politics matter?

Abstract The overriding conclusion of the majority of recent policy studies is that political factors play an insignificant role in influencing policy outputs. We establish a number of models, comprising both economic and political variables, which are used in an attempt to indicate the relative salience of rival determinants of public welfare commitment in advanced democratic states. Though we cannot dismiss some influence of economic factors, the main findings run counter to the conventional wisdom of policy studies in indicating the greater salience of political factors as determinants of public welfare outputs.     

The microeconomic voter

In the United States, aggregate and individual level studies of economic voting for the Congress have produced contradictory findings. The same is true for models of economic voting for the Australian Parliament. This paper presents data taken from a series of individual level studies which show that voters' attitudes towards fiscal and microeconomic issues have been better predictors of the vote for the Australian House of Representatives over the last four elections than their attitudes towards macroeconomic issues. This finding suggests that the cause of the inconsistency between aggregate and individual level models of voting may be that aggregate models of economic voting which include only macroeconomic variables are inadequately specified, since they do not take broader aspects of the economy into account.     

Attitudes and behaviour of party activists

Abstract. During the last four years a research project has studied the 'Middle-Level Elites' of sixty European political parties. Like most previous studies in this area the main objective of the project was strictly party activists' attitudes; no attention was paid to their actual behaviour in the party organisation. Other studies of recent date indicate however that party activists, despite their often more radical or extreme stands on many issues, often submit to the authority and dominance of the party leadership in the intraparty policy-making process. Thus, attitudinal data seem to tell us very little about the actual behaviour of the party activists. The article first presents the results of some recent studies on the attitudes of party activists. Secondly, these findings are related to studies on the actual behaviour of the activists. When synthesising these different types of observations, we can develop a typology of intraparty conflicts, as well as one of party activist behaviour. Together, these two typologies represent different models of intraorganisational behaviour. Finally, by using empirical illustrations drawn from recent studies on party activist attitudes or behaviour, some hypotheses deduced from the theories of May, Hirschman and Michels are introduced to suggest paths for future research and to point to some of the most salient problems in this area.     

Do we need warm leaders? Exploratory study of the role of voter evaluations of leaders’ traits on turnout in seven European countries

Previous research on leader effects has focused exclusively on the impact of voters’ evaluations of leaders on vote choice, disregarding possible effects on the prior step of deciding whether or not to turn out to vote. In line with the personalisation of politics thesis, leaders have a higher impact among dealigned voters. Previous studies have demonstrated that leader effects are stronger among voters who voice their dealignment – namely party switchers. However, the potential impact of leaders among those who exited (i.e., who have abstained) is still unstudied. Could leaders have a mobilisation effect and therefore trigger turnout decisions? What characteristics of party leaders are more relevant in this regard? This article is the first comparative study to examine how the evaluation of party leaders’ traits influences voter turnout in general elections. The work incorporates data from election studies across seven countries with different social contexts (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Hungary). Characteristics of leaders were grouped into two dimensions – competence and warmth – in accordance with the stereotype content model and relevant studies on leaders’ traits evaluation. Multiple binary logistic regression models were performed to analyse the predictive power of competence and warmth on turnout, controlling for sociodemographic, political ideology variables and voters’ past political behaviour. Results reinforce the personalisation of politics theory, showing the utmost relevance of warmth personality traits of leaders in voter turnout decisions. Competence personality traits were found to be relevant only in some situations. Interaction effects were also demonstrated between warmth evaluations and identifying with a right-wing party as well as past political behaviour with both warmth and competence.     

Why so much stability? An optimistic view of the possibility of rational legislative decisionmaking

Recent formal models of legislatures have proved that equilibrium outcomes are extremely unlikely without either (1) extreme restrictions upon preferences or (2) constraints upon the agenda. The implication is that constant instability or dictatorial manipulation is the norm in politics. This paper argues to the contrary, that legislatures (and other political processes) are characterized by some regularities, and that equilibrium models are the appropriate technique to use in describing these regularities. Examples from economic theory are used to illustrate this principle. The assumption of equilibrium is methodological, committing the researcher to develop models that have specific empirical implications. Using analogies from the economic theories of general equilibrium, oligopoly, and demand revealing processes, some potentially fruitful means of developing equilibrium political models are described. Assuming that legislators may freely make binding contracts has both empirical and normative advantages. Finally, institutional restrictions on legislative agendas may assure equilibrium. These include ‘constitutional’ rules, agreements to share ‘pork barrel’ projects evenly, limitation of committees to specific policy arenas, and the election of leaders who then determine the voting agenda.     

Governance of Terror: New Institutionalism and the Evolution of Terrorist Organizations

A preoccupation with network approaches in terrorism studies has inadvertently marginalized the fact that terrorist groups are subject to many of the same bureaucratic forces that impact all purposeful organizations. Because typical organizations are subsumed in the concept of networks, it is curious that scholars have been so quick to bypass more traditional models of organizations and bureaucracy that may help us understand network topology. This article relies on the new institutional approach to organizational behavior. Using the Coase theorem to explain the costs and benefits associated with different organizational structures, it follows that counterterrorism efforts may drive some groups toward greater autonomy while compelling others to adopt common bureaucratic processes, often referred to as isomorphism. By exploring the different costs that terror groups face and examining the characteristics of terrorists associated with different groups, organizational theory can help explain a divergent trend in terrorism research: leaderless jihad and increased bureaucratization.     

An examination of the structure of governance in California school districts before and after Proposition 13

This paper explores the structure of governance in California school districts. Two alternative models are considered, the decisive voter (benevolent dictator) model and a model that allows for rent-seeking behavior on the part of district decision makers. A formal test between these two models is proposed and implemented. The decisive voter model is found wanting as an explanation of school district decision making both before and after the passage of Proposition 13. There is, however, some evidence that the constraints imposed on some districts by Proposition 13 have forced decision makers to act in a manner more consistent with the preferences of their constituents.     

The institutional and political factors that influence voter turnout

State data were used to develop an econometric model of voter turnout for an off-year (1982) general election. The premise of the research was that existing voter turnout models lacked some of the true explanatory variables. In particular, the political efficacy component of the decision to vote was believed to be under-represented in those models. Previously untested institutional, political, and weather variables proved to be significant explanatory variables. Many variables that were significant in previous studies were not significant in the 1982 general election analysis. 91% of the variation in voter turnout was explained, a significant improvement over previous efforts. Since the values of many of the variables are directly chosen by elected officials, the model provides policymakers with a menu of opportunities for boosting voter turnout.     

“If you Build it with them,they will come”: What makes a supermarket intervention successful in a food desert?

Using 71 planned supermarket interventions in food deserts, this study assesses the interplay between regional geography, management models, policy drivers, financing, and timing. We find that community engagement and cooperative management models are important factors to opening and sustaining a new store, contributing to subsequent improvements in the foodscape, built environment, and diet‐related health. Findings show that none of the nonprofit or community‐driven stores have closed whereas nearly half of the commercial‐driven and one third of government‐driven cases resulted in canceled plans or closed stores. Our research suggests community engagement is a critical component of effective policies for healthy food access. Future studies may wish to include measurements of community engagement with their case studies to better situate explanatory findings.     

Japanese Network Capital: The Impact of Social Networks on Japanese Political Participation

Recent scholarship shows that social capital has a large influence on political behavior. Social capital’s definition includes trust, norms of reciprocity, and social networks. Most studies, however, ignore the networking component. Here, we test the influence of social networks on political participation using new Japanese survey data. We separately test the effects of involvement in formally organized voluntary associations and informal social networks. We also examine whether hierarchical networks have a different impact on participation than equal relationships. To determine if networks with bridging or bonding social capital affect participation differently, we also measure the openness to outsiders of these networks. Negative binomial regression models indicate a strong positive relationship between formal and informal social networking—including network hierarchy and some forms of openness—and political participation.