从路径依赖到情境依赖:宗族乡村治理格局的适应性演化——基于广东省3个宗族村庄案例的实证分析

宗族乡村本质上是国家社会关系转变的产物,其治理格局的演化与国家社会发展同步互动。因此,认识宗族乡村治理格局的演化逻辑,必须在我国的历史传承与乡村治理的当下实践中建构分析框架。“路径依赖——情境依赖”分析框架正是一种认识宗族乡村治理格局演化逻辑的尝试,它把路径依赖具体划分为延续性与变革性两个方面,延续性代表着历史传承,变革性则依赖于当下情境。而当下情境又具体化为制度情境、本土情境、事件情境三种类型,治理格局常常因任意一类型情境变迁而做出适应性改变,便是发生了情境依赖。路径依赖的延续性和变革性所催生的情境依赖,成就了历史传承在当下的互动形式,宗族乡村治理格局便在这种互动关系中渐进演化。     

The Potential of Path Dependence in Political Studies

This article explores the difficulties with both the theoretical content and application of the concept of 'path dependence' in political studies, but suggests that, by combining it with insights from morphogenetic social theory, we can provide a coherent framework for its use. After providing a brief survey of the literature on path dependence, it presents a summary of the most significant criticisms made of the approach. The article then moves on to examine morphogenetic social theory and its potential to meet these criticisms before concluding by characterising the elements of a path-dependent system incorporating insights from both new institutionalism and morphogenetic social theory.     

Industrial Relations and Public Sector Reform: The Victorian Case

Few anticipated the radical program of public sector reform introduced by the Kennett government. A commitment to downsizing, markets and privatisation has transformed employment relations in the Victorian public sector. Familiar institutions have disappeared, major employment areas have been restructured, and jurisdiction for much public sector industrial relations has been transferred to the Commonwealth. Despite some industrial unrest, and occasional successes, public sector unions have been unable to fend off this ideological assault on traditional patterns of public sector employment.     

The Substitution Approach To Intergovernmental Relations: The Case Of OSHA

Federal legislation of the last two decades has substantiallyreduced state autonomy in dealing with many regulatory issues.Participation in the implementation of these federal programsmay, however, enable states to exert some leverage over policyoutcomes. Variations in state leverage no doubt exist from oneintergovernmental grant program to the next. Substitution authoritymay be one variable accounting for this variation. Under a substitutionapproach, a federal agency cannot only sever the flow of fundsto a grantee; it can also step in and operate a program if statesfail to meet expectations or choose not to participate. Thisarticle generates more basic propositions about the substitutionapproach by analyzing its implementation under the OccupationalSafety and Health Act of 1970. The article examines the roleplayed by substitution authority in motivating the OccupationalSafety and Health Administration (OSHA) to adopt an aggressiveposture toward the states. The article then assesses whetherOSHA's aggressiveness prompted state grantees to exert considerableeffort on behalf of program goals. Finally, the implicationsof current reform proposals, which call for a sorting out offunctions between the states and the federal government, receiveattention.     

Institutionalized Evaluation and Intergovernmental Relations: The Case of Coastal Zone Management

The enactment of national environmental management programswas prompted, in large part, by the perceived failure of stateand local government officials to deal adequately with pollutioncontrol and resource management problems. Paradoxically, theimplementation of several important environmental managementprograms relies heavily on these same state and local officials.Congress has sought to resolve this paradox by requiring federalevaluation of state and local environmental planning and managementactivities. Many of these evaluations are little more than routinefiscal audits. However one agency, the Office of Coastal ZoneManagement, has sought to develop a systematic evaluation processfocusing on all aspects of state coastal zone programs. Theseevaluative efforts have led to intergovernmental tensions, mostnotably with regard to the purposes and methods of evaluation,the appropriate roles of federal and state officials, and theresources available for evaluation. In spite of these tensions,there is broad agreement about the value of the evaluation processand its potential applicability in other contexts.     

The Council of Australian Governments and Intergovernmental Relations: A Case of Cooperative Federalism

A series of Special Premiers' Conferences begun in 1990, andthe establishment of the Council of Australian Governments in1992, signaled a phase of "cooperative federalism" in Australia.Joint schemes of policy and legislation and new national intergovernmentalbodies were made by a series of formal agreements. The conditionsand circumstances are appraised in a discussion of the natureof intergovernmental coordination and cooperation, and fromthe critical perspective of a model of competitive federalism.It is concluded that the initiatives, largely, did not representa centralizing process, nor did they override strongly articulatedclaims for diversity. This is made clear following an analysisof the processes occurring in the newly established federalinstitutions and from a series of brief case studies. They expressedthe continuing interdependency and underlying autonomy of stateand Commonwealth governments through schemes that promised tobring agreed, joint benefits through federal solutions.     

Managing Intergovernmental Relations in Australia: The Case of Agricultural Policy Cooperation

In June 2004, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) announced changes to the guidelines and protocols of some 40 ministerial councils and intergovernmental fora which comprise the web of intergovernmental consultative arrangements. This article examines the impact of the guidelines on the operation of the oldest of the sectoral ministerial councils, those relating to agriculture. The COAG guidelines aim to increase the strategic focus of the councils. However, in the case of agricultural policy there appears to have been a centralising of policy control, both within state governments and towards the Commonwealth, which undermines that objective and leaves the ministerial councils focusing on the more technical issues which they are more effective at addressing.     

Central-Local Government Relations in Transition: The Case of Swedish Child Care

The provision of subsidized child care has grown to become asizeable economic activity in Sweden during recent decades.This paper examines the changed financial relation betweencentral and local governments and the impact of child-caregrants on local government behaviour. We find that during anearlier regime, with a system of matching grants, localgovernments responded strongly to the incentives of the rules.This resulted in both intended and unintended outcomes, aswell as a distortion of information to the central government.Experiences from a recent transition of regime towards a kindof closed block grant system, illustrates new types ofadaptive behaviour but also the problem of finding a formulafor a fair allocation of resources among local governments.When designing a block grant system a distinction must be madebetween expenditures and resource needs; cost expenditure datado not necessarily reflect resource needs in cases where thereare national categorical equity goals related to socialservices of a merit-want character.     

Path Dependence and Public Sector Innovation in Regulatory Regimes

The overarching theme of this article is institutional analysis of modernization and innovation in the regulatory state, and in pursuing this, the concepts of ‘path dependence’ and ‘administrative traditions’ are used throughout. Self‐reinforcing or positive feedback processes in political systems represent a basic framework. The empirical point of departure is the EU public procurement directive linked to OECD data concerning use of outsourcing among Member States. The question is asked: What has caused the Nordic countries, traditionally not belonging to the Anglo‐Saxon market‐centred administrative tradition, to be ranked so high as users of the Market‐Type Mechanism (MTM) of outsourcing in the public sector versus inhouse provision of services? The reason may be complex, but might be found in an innovative Scandinavian regulatory approach rooted in a ‘small is beautiful’, small and medium‐seized businesses, and local and regional development planning tradition.     

Path Dependence in Settlement Processes: Explaining Settlement in Northern Ireland

The recent literature on path dependence provides a model that can be used in explanation of ethnic conflict and settlement processes. Using Northern Ireland as a case study, this article identifies path dependent patterns of conflict embedded in long-term processes of political development whose change may interrupt these patterns. It highlights the importance of long-term state trajectories in constituting and reproducing these patterns, the generation of 'endogenous' processes of change and the impact of wider geopolitical processes in strengthening these. It shows how and why factors such as power, perception, networks and institutions vary in their impact on conflict and explains when they work together to produce settlement.     

State-Local Relations in Policy Implementation: The Case of Highway Transportation in Iowa

This article examines relationships between state agencies andlocal communities, using survey and interview data from a casestudy of the Iowa Department of Transportation. It argues thatthese relationships often parallel the agency-clientele relationshipsobserved by public administration scholars. The agency derivessimilar benefits from local government support as from privateclientele support, namely, an independent power base that helpsto preserve its flow of resources and its administrative autonomy.IDOT possesses formidable political resources in the breadthand intensity of its clientele, but the key to IDOT's successis the skillful utilization of those resources through an administrativestrategy stressing the development of widely accepted technicaldecision-criteria and an administrative style emphasizing accessibility,responsiveness, and flexibility. A survey of mayors and localbusiness leaders shows that this strategy has generated widespreadpositive perceptions of the department among these clientelegroups.     

The Balance‐Sample Size Frontier in Matching Methods for Causal Inference

We propose a simplified approach to matching for causal inference that simultaneously optimizes balance (similarity between the treated and control groups) and matched sample size. Existing approaches either fix the matched sample size and maximize balance or fix balance and maximize sample size, leaving analysts to settle for suboptimal solutions or attempt manual optimization by iteratively tweaking their matching method and rechecking balance. To jointly maximize balance and sample size, we introduce the matching frontier, the set of matching solutions with maximum possible balance for each sample size. Rather than iterating, researchers can choose matching solutions from the frontier for analysis in one step. We derive fast algorithms that calculate the matching frontier for several commonly used balance metrics. We demonstrate this approach with analyses of the effect of sex on judging and job training programs that show how the methods we introduce can extract new knowledge from existing data sets.     

四川民族地区发展生态经济的路径依赖及制度创新

四川民族地区是中国西部重要的生态屏障,生态经济模式是四川民族地区经济发展的必然选择。民族地区现有的路径依赖已不能满足生态经济的发展要求,只有政府主动地进行制度创新,通过确定合理的制度目标和整体规划,以产业制度创新为基础,以市场制度建设为核心,发挥比较优势,才能实现可持续发展的生态经济模式。     

Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics

Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths,pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accuratestatistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive neweconometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on thelogic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzlein the rational deterrence literature: the divergence betweentheory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findingsof quantitative studies, on the other, on the issue of the roleof capabilities and willingness in the initiation of disputes.It also makes the case that different methodological traditions,rather than settling into "separate but equal" status, can insteadinform and enrich one another.