Local adaptation policy responses to extreme weather events

Policy Sciences - At a global level, climate change is expected to result in more frequent and higher-intensity weather events, with impacts ranging from inconvenient to catastrophic. The potential...     

Lobbying and uncertainty: Lobbying's varying response to different political events

Does political uncertainty affect whether lobbyists contact government officials? We suggest that the answer depends on the type of uncertainty introduced. Distinguishing between policy objective uncertainty—where organized interests and lobbyists are uncertain about the policy intentions of decision makers—and issue information uncertainty—where policymakers are uncertain about the technical details of issues—we hypothesize that whereas an increase in policy objective uncertainty leads to a decrease in lobbying, a rise in issue information uncertainty leads to more lobbying. We test the hypotheses with longitudinal data from the Canadian Lobbyists Registry measuring change in the number of times lobbyists have contacted government ministries each month from 2008 to 2018. The results suggest that lobbying intensity does respond differently to these types of uncertainty. Whereas events introducing issue information uncertainty have a statistically significant positive relationship with lobbying, events introducing policy objective uncertainty do not.     

The link between demographic events: a study of nuptiality patterns

The author examines links between the timing of various major life events (including women's age at marriage and the spacing of children) and the economic and urban development of a society, using Mexico as an example. The focus is on marriage patterns. She finds that nuptiality influences rural-urban migration for women, as do age and socioeconomic factors and husband's employment status. Data are from the Mexican Fertility Survey for the period 1976-1977. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Nonexpert beliefs about the macroeconomic consequences of economic and noneconomic events

Economists assume that individuals think about the economy like economists, which is especially important in all rational expectations and economic voting models. Despite contrasting evidence, there has been little research on actual nonexpert macroeconomic beliefs. In this paper, I present the results of a survey among students designed to find out whether they distinguish macroeconomically relevant from irrelevant events. I find that even people with some economic background tend to overestimate the effects of noneconomic events. This bias is a function of gender, economic training, and the preferred means of mass communication.     

The use of events/interaction research by the intelligence community

This review essay applies academic and operational research community criteria of evaluation to a project founded on events/interaction data. The project, the Early Warning and Monitoring System (EWAMS), is built on solid academic research but also takes into account requirements of the operational community. Differences in form and content from typical academic events/interaction research have been instrumental in putting the EWAMS into operational use.The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed of implied, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or any other agency of the U.S. Government.     

The Effect of Survey Mode and Sampling on Inferences about Political Attitudes and Behavior: Comparing the 2000 and 2004 ANES to Internet Surveys with Nonprobability Samples

Jon A. Krosnick Departments of Communication, Political Science, and Psychology, Stanford University, 434 McClatchy Hall, 450 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305 e-mail: krosnick{at}stanford.edu e-mail: neilm{at}stanford.edu (corresponding author) Since the inception of the American National Election Study(ANES) in the 1940s, data have been collected via face-to-faceinterviewing in the homes of members of area probability samplesof American adults, the same gold-standard approach used bythe U.S. Census Bureau, other federal agencies, and some nongovernmentresearchers for many of the most high-profile surveys conductedtoday. This paper explores whether comparable findings aboutvoters and elections would be obtained by a different, considerablyless expensive method: Internet data collection from nonprobabilitysamples of volunteer respondents. Comparisons of the 2000 and2004 ANES data (collected via face-to-face interviewing withnational probability samples) with simultaneous Internet surveysof volunteer samples yielded many differences in the distributionsof variables and in the associations between variables (evencontrolling for differences between the samples in reportedinterest in politics). Accuracy was higher for the face-to-face/probabilitysample data than for the Internet/volunteer sample data in 88%of the possible comparisons. This suggests that researchersinterested in assuring the accuracy of their findings in describingpopulations should rely on face-to-face surveys of probabilitysamples rather than Internet samples of volunteer respondents. Authors' note: We thank Randy Thomas of Harris Interactive andMorris Fiorina for very helpful suggestions. Jon Krosnick isUniversity Fellow at Resources for the Future.     

The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 update

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have remarkable explanatory power. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.     

关于新时期中国群体性事件的几点思考

中国正处于改革开放和全面建设小康社会的历史新时期。伴随着改革的不断深化,以人民内部矛盾形式表现出来的群体性事件不断增多,这严重影响到社会主义和谐社会的构建。深入研究新时期中国群体性事件的现状、原因以及应如何有效化解等问题,对推动社会主义和谐社会的建设具有十分重要的意义。     

Shareholder wealth effects of legislative events: The case of airline deregulation

This paper presents empirical evidence about the impact on shareholder wealth of legislative events leading to the enactment of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. In contrast to prior regulatory event studies, this paper examines not only the final legislative enactment but also the Congressional hearings that preceded it. No significant effect on shareholder wealth is indicated when averaged across all airline firms and all legislative events. Impact of deregulation, however, was expected to be different for trunk airlines than for local airlines. Moreover, market expectations likely changed with the change in the political climate during the course of deregulation deliberations, from an industry financial health emphasis under a Republican (Ford) administration to a consumer welfare emphasis under a Democratic (Carter) administration. We find that trunk airlines experienced significant positive abnormal returns during the Ford administration, but negative abnormal returns during the Carter administration. In contrast, local airlines exhibited significant negative abnormal returns during both the Ford and Carter eras. Systematic risk of both trunk and local airlines also increased with the change in the political climate.     

The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1992 update

This article updates through the 1992 election the equation originally presented in Fair (1978) explaining votes for president. Conditional predictions of the 1996 election are also made.     

Issue avoidance: Evidence from the U.S. senate

This research considers whether there is evidence of legislators' issue avoidance, or unwillingness to reveal one's position. It links, for the first time, two important areas of inquiry: legislative decision making and issue avoidance. The data describe senatorial behavior over eighteen years, involving approximately 200,000 individual voting decisions. During that time, senators were polled by CQ after each missed roll call, and asked to indicate their positions. Issue avoidance is a subset of the nonresponses to that poll. A conceptual model of voting and position taking is presented, incorporating both behaviors and intentions. It defines two kinds of issue avoidance: proactive, deliberate avoidance at the time of the roll call, and reactive, avoidance decided on after votes missed inadvertently. Application of the model permits inferences about intent. Proactive avoidance accounts for 12% of nonvoting during the terms' first five years. It also represents 40% of failures to reveal positions. As much as another 19% of nonvoting results in reactive avoidance. A sixth-year increase in issue avoidance is indicated, although not conclusively. The findings strongly suggest that models of legislative voting should be amended to account for both proactive and reactive avoidance.     

Gubernatorial elections and attitudes toward the police: State elections as focusing events

Traditional views hold that citizens’ attitudes toward the police are driven by local concerns. We contend that public attitudes toward the police are also responsive to systematic and periodic state-level political factors. We show that state elections as a focusing event alter periodically the determinants of attitudes toward the police. Using an ordered logistic regression model and data from national public policy surveys from 1998 and 1999, we find that gubernatorial elections have a significant effect on the state/police relationship. State elections create conditions that separate the bureaucratic and partisan functions of the state government. In turn, the bureaucratic performance of the state government is less related to police approval, while partisan contestation for control of the governor office (control of the state) is significantly and positively related to police approval. During gubernatorial election years, attitudes toward the state government account for more of the variation in police attitudes.     

Decentralization and Corruption: Evidence from U.S. Federal Transfer Programs

While some recent evidence suggests that more decentralizationis associated with reduced corruption, no empirical work hasexamined whether different types of decentralization havedifferential effects on corruption. The theoretical literaturehas emphasized that expenditure decentralization will only beeffective if accompanied by the devolution of revenuegeneration to local governments. In this paper we examine thishypothesis empirically, by studying the mismatch betweenrevenue generation and expenditure in U.S. states. Largerfederal transfers are associated with higher rates ofconviction for abuse of public office, supporting the theorythat soft-budget constraints created by federal transfers arepotentially problematic.     

当前政府建立应对突发事件应急管理系统的思考

随着世界政治经济格局的变换、社会结构的转型、利益主体多元化格局的形成以及科学技术的进步等多种动因的影响 ,突发事件的发生变得日益频繁和复杂 ,社会公共危害性越来越大 ,并逐渐呈现出一种全球化的趋势。为了维续政府的基本职能 ,维护政府的合法性和公信力 ,当前政府建立应对突发事件的应急管理系统十分紧迫和现实可行。本文分别就应急管理系统的缓解、准备、反应及恢复机制的建立和完善进行系统思考 ,并在公共治理变革的视野维度下对政府应急管理的发展提出展望。