对委内瑞拉可治理性危机的分析

委内瑞拉在1958年建立民主体制之后保持了较长时间的政治稳定和可治理性,但自20世纪80年代末实行经济模式转型以来,委内瑞拉面对着一场可治理性危机,其表现为民选政府愈来愈难以有效地维持社会秩序,大规模、长时间的罢工、示威和严重的暴力冲突频频发生;社会各阶层、各群体之间的政治分歧加剧;国家机器内部出现分裂乃至对立,严重限制了政府的执政能力;猖獗的腐败现象损害了民主体制的合法性,多起未遂军事政变的发生对民主体制构成严重威胁.从政治体制的角度看,这场危机发生的原因在于委内瑞拉政治制度化的水平落后于政治参与的发展水平;民选政府的执政能力不足,政策措施缺乏连续性和稳定性;两大传统政党的衰落和政党体制的破碎化削弱了民主体制的社会基础和功能作用.为了应对可治理性危机,委内瑞拉政党和政治体制都需要进行自我改革,提高民众的政治参与度,并建立一套强有力的反腐机制.     

民主化进程中拉美国家政治制度面临的主要挑战--对拉美国家政治不稳定的一种解释

主要观点在20世纪80年代以后政治民主化进程中,拉美一些国家的传统政党或衰落,或力量下降,一些新的政党和政治力量异军突起,许多国家的传统政党体系发生了变化.无论是传统政党制度的崩溃、政党制度的重建、国家权力机构之间的冲突,还是民众对现存政治体制的不满或政府面临的可治理性危机,都加剧了拉美国家政治的动荡,一些拉美国家的政治制度面临着一系列严峻的挑战.     

拉美国家治理的经验与困境:政治发展的视角

进入21世纪以来,拉美地区出现民主日益稳固、经济持续增长、社会相对稳定的新局面,国家和社会治理能力明显改善。拉美国家提高治理能力的具体做法和基本经验是转变治理理念,强调理性决策并努力构建科学合理的政府决策机制,增强依法治国意识和推进制度健全与完善,提高法律制度的效率和执行力。拉美国家仍面临诸多治理难题,为实现有效治理,需要进一步化解体制和制度缺陷,推进决策的合理化与科学化,不断满足民众的新诉求,维护政治和社会稳定。     

编者的话CSSCI

拉丁美洲是发展中世界开始现代化进程较早的地区之一。无论是主动还是被动地对外开放,拉美社会所经历的发展历程、形成的演变规律和特征、产生的治理难题和挑战以及积累的经验都值得我们进行深入研究。随着中拉关系迈入整体合作的新阶段,双方全方位、宽领域和多层次交往日益密切,社会治理已成为一项兼具治国理政、经贸合作、文化互通、民众认知等跨界意义的重要议题。本期“拉美国家治理能力研究”专题从可治理性、司法改革、执政党能力建设、社会结构变迁和冲突、社会安全等不同视角对拉美地区相关国家的基本经验与教训作出归纳和分析。     

拉美地区国家能力建设刍议——兼评《建设一个更有效率的国家》

近年来,受到全球经济增长乏力和大宗商品价格大幅下跌等外部环境的影响,拉美地区再次陷入经济发展停滞的不利局面,困扰拉美国家已久的治理危机和社会问题重新凸显出来。国家能力是国家从社会中汲取资源并对社会实施统治与管理的能力。CAF—拉丁美洲开发银行2015年经济和发展报告《建设一个更有效率的国家》表明,许多有着明确目标和完整步骤的政策在拉美国家实践中很难取得预期效果,这是因为拉美国家在国家能力建设上存在缺陷,如官僚体系的缺陷不利于调动公务员的积极性,公共采购体系的缺陷为腐败的滋生提供了土壤,公众参与政治的渠道受限于政府信息公开度和公众自身素质,公共政策经验评估面临许多困难和障碍,拉美地区"强社会、弱国家"的建构形态削弱了国家对资源的控制和处置能力,制约了拉美国家公共政策实施的效果。为应对这种困境,拉美国家的国家能力建设应从建立制度化和系统化的官僚体系、加强反腐司法系统的建设、提高公众政治参与程度等方面着手,以提升国家治理的效能与水平。     

拉美国家的腐败问题与反腐败斗争评析

制度性腐败、腐败的跨国化趋势和选举腐败突出,成为20世纪90年代中期以来拉美地区腐败问题的新特点。严重的腐败问题对政府治理和民主制度造成极大的破坏。在这种背景下,拉美各国政府一方面加大了惩处腐败的力度,另一方面将反腐败重点转向完善法律和制度建设,试图通过建构本国的廉政体系,将预防、监督和惩处结合起来,推动反腐败斗争的深入发展。然而,在继续加强和完善制度建设方面,拉美国家还有很长的路要走。在腐败问题非常严重的拉美地区,治理腐败将需要一两代人的持续奋斗。     

阿根廷的可治理性危机分析

整个20世纪,特别是1983年民主转型以来,阿根廷多在政治不稳和经济乏力之间摇摆。经济和社会发展的迟滞降低了民众对政府的认同度,从而削弱了统治的合法性,以致阿根廷多次出现可治理性危机。危机的总根源可以归咎于"制度脆弱性",具体表现在政治文化和历史传承形成的路径依赖、权力制衡机制的失灵,以及政党职能异化导致利益表达渠道受阻而激起的大众抗议。2001年危机无疑是阿根廷问题的总爆发,使阿根廷的政治精英意识到必须注重平衡不同利益群体和不同部门的差别化利益,努力通过扩大公民社会参与政治决策来谋求发展共识的新道路。"阿根廷对话"正是探索这种新道路的一次尝试。     

可治理性与社会凝聚:拉美国家的经验

拉美国家的可治理性总体上处于缓慢持续提高的过程,可治理性持续改善的制度基础、体制条件、政策条件和民众基础均有所改善.但是,拉美国家在可治理性方面仍有许多难题,远未实现理想的可治理性.随着民主化进程的深化和经济转型的实现,拉美国家的可治理性缺陷更加明显,在体制、制度和政策设计、政府执政能力和执政水平、经济和社会权利等各个方面均有所体现.可治理性缺陷加剧了社会矛盾,损害了社会环境,降低了民众的认同感和对未来的预期,损害了社会凝聚.拉美国家社会凝聚的增强,在一定程度上有赖于可治理性程度的进一步改善.     

委内瑞拉政府反腐败的经验与绩效评估

委内瑞拉的腐败问题在拉美地区具有一定典型性。查韦斯执政后加大反腐败力度,出台了系统的反腐败措施,注重减少体制性腐败,重视反腐败机制的构建,完善反腐败法律体系,注意借鉴其他国家的反腐败经验,主动参与美洲国家组织及联合国等机构所开展的反腐败国际合作。委内瑞拉虽然已逐渐形成反腐败的社会氛围,政府主导的反腐败斗争也取得一定成效,但腐败产生的主要根源并未根除,监督机制依然脆弱,腐败仍未从根本上得到遏制,新的腐败现象仍在滋生,腐败文化根深蒂固,反腐任务依然异常艰巨。     

厄瓜多尔可治理性问题研究

厄瓜多尔可治理性问题主要有如下几个方面:一是以高度"碎片化"为特征的国内政治格局使总统府的政策难以取得民众的信任,表现在传统上的高地—海岸之争愈演愈烈,新兴土著人政治力量的崛起更给本来就复杂的局面增添了新的变数;二是政治体制缺乏效率,主要原因是缺乏资金和训练有素的人员以及司法机构政治化等;三是腐败削弱了民众对政治体制的信任;四是贫困和社会公正问题长期得不到解决使可治理性问题更加突出。     

Does faith limit immorality? The politics of religion and corruption

Critically considering scholarship relating religiosity to ethical behaviour, we contend that religion is systematically related to levels of corruption, and that the nature of this relationship is contingent on the presence of democratic institutions. In democracies, where political institutions are designed to inhibit corrupt conduct, the morality provided by religion is related to attenuated corruption. Conversely, in systems lacking democratic institutions, moral behaviour is not tantamount to staying away from corrupt ways. Accordingly, in non-democratic contexts, religion would not be associated with decreased corruption. Time-series cross-sectional analyses of aggregate data for 129 countries for 12 years, as well as individual level analyses of data from the World Values Surveys, strongly corroborate the predictions of our theory. The correlation of religion with reduced corruption is conditional on the extent to which political institutions are democratic.     

The international news about governability: A comparison of the New York Times and six news wires

This paper examines the international news coverage of governability offered by several news sources. Governability is defined as actual or potential challenges to the domestic political order or stability of a nation, manifested by oppositional violence, leadership crises or institutional change. The New York Times, AP, UPI, Reuters, Northern Reuters, Kyodo and Xinshua are examined for one week. We evaluate how well these sources cover governability issues with respect to four criteria: relative emphasis on the topic, volume of coverage, depth of coverage and extensiveness of country coverage (on both a global and a regional basis). Our results indicate that the global coverage of governability concentrates on certain regions and countries of the world, and that large gaps appear for Africa and for much of the Third World. The New York Times offers the most in‐depth coverage of governability issues, but UPI, AP, Reuters and Northern Reuters offer much wider country coverage. We also found that two non‐Western news wires (Kyodo and Xinshua) concentrate more on governability issues but offer less extensive country coverage than Western sources.     

墨西哥的政治经济转型与可治理性问题

墨西哥的可治理问题具有一定特殊性。20世纪30年代后革命制度党的统治为墨西哥带来数10年政治、经济和社会稳定,实现了初步的可治理性,但这种可治理性有很大脆弱性。在80年代后经济、社会和政治转型过程中,墨西哥出现新的动荡和不稳定,体制缺陷进一步暴露,各阶层不满情绪增长,有关当局驾驭危机和应对矛盾的能力下降,出现新的可治理性难题。尽管有关当局采取一系列政策措施,力图提高可治理性的实现程度,但在可治理性方面仍存在严重困难。     

Argentina,a 'Parasite State' on the Verge of Disintegration

Argentina has more than twice the total debt of India whilst the latter has 28 times more population in roughly equivalent territories. According to Poder Ciudadano, a local NGO, in 1999 Argentine political parties spent 440 times more than those of Chile. These gross asymmetries help to show that Argentina's financial troubles must be attributed to her own political practices rather than to adverse circumstances or foreign scapegoats. By December 2001, overspending had manifestly destroyed the Argentine financial system. Across-the-board violations of property rights followed, through bank withdrawal restrictions and a debt default that was the biggest in world economic history. This paper analyses the breakdown of federal institutions, the atomisation of power and the erosion of governability that ensued as a consequence of the financial crisis. Mafia-style political practices, an endemic evil in the background of Argentine politics, jumped to the forefront as a consequence of this institutional breakdown.     

Accounting for Corruption: Economic Structure, Democracy, and Trade

Though corruption poses fundamental challenges to both democratic governance and market economies, political science research has only recently begun to address corruption in a comparative context. In this article we explain variation in the perceived level of corruption (defined as the misuse of public office for private gain) across fifty countries. We propose a set of hypotheses that explain variation in corruption levels in terms of domestic political-economic structure, democratic norms, integration into the international economy, and Protestant religious affiliation. Levels of corruption, we propose, are higher: (1) the lower the average income level, (2) the greater the extent of state control of the economy, (3) the weaker are democratic norms and institutions, (4) the lower the degree of integration in the world economy, and (5) the lower the share of the population with Protestant religious affiliation. The data analysis broadly confirms our predictions: in the multivariate regression, each of the independent variables is significant in the direction we expect.     

厄瓜多尔的“21世纪社会主义”

历史上长期存在的高度"碎片化"的政治格局、政治体制效率低下、政治腐败严重以及人民对政治体制的不信任是厄瓜多尔产生"21世纪社会主义"的根本原因,而拉美左翼在拉美许多国家执政,一些领导人推出各具特色的"社会主义"政策、寻求新自由主义的替代方案则是其产生的外部动因.在理论上,"21世纪社会主义"具有与传统社会主义不同的特点,它不是某种模式,而是由许多原则构成,尚未形成系统的理论.在实践上,科雷亚政府通过新宪法,扩大总统职权,打破传统上高地与海岸对立的局面,重新划分省区,经济上回归国家干预主义,进行议会改革,限制议会权力,把推进地区一体化作为外交政策的优先目标等,力图实现国家的全面改革.     

Fragmentation of presidential elections and governability crises in Latin America: a curvilinear relationship?

Part of the literature views high numbers of presidential candidates as a threat to political stability in presidential democracies. A contradictory model proposes that an overconcentration of the presidential party system is problematic. Both models are hard to reconcile. We approach this puzzle by arguing that the relationship between the level of presidential election fragmentation and governability crises is curvilinear: both very low and very high effective numbers of presidential candidates increase the risk of governability crisis. We test this theoretical claim with ordered logit models drawing on a sample of 108 presidencies in Latin America between 1978 and 2013 and using an ordinal index of the intensity of crisis as the dependent variable. We explore the operation of the theorized causal mechanisms through case studies and argue that they are different at both extremes, high and low levels of fragmentation. Finally, we formulate implications for the design of presidential electoral rules drawing on the debate contrasting runoff and plurality rules.     

Political Party Finance in South Africa: Disclosure Versus Secrecy

Litigation initiated by the Institute for Democracy in Southern Africa against all political parties for the disclosure of donations initiated a debate over party-funding regulatory regimes. The case for disclosure and regulation emphasized the causal connection between secret funding and corruption as well as the weakening of democratic practice. An empirical assessment of these claims shows that secrecy has not brought about these predicted effects and that official institutions have been effective in uncovering and prosecuting political and other forms of corruption. Moreover, evidence is presented showing that the disclosure of donors' identities will prejudice smaller, opposition parties to the detriment of South Africa's multi-party democratic system. An appropriate regulatory regime for the country must emerge from a deliberative process, rather than a judicial decision, if it is to be effective. In addition, the regulations must balance transparency against the interests of smaller parties through innovative and country-specific monitoring mechanisms.     

Informal Institutions and Democracy

Informal institutions have grown in relevance for the analysis of new ‘third wave’ democracies. The research strategy receives its impetus from the debate on neo‐institutionalism theory, which offers a productive perspective for structuring the field of analysis. This article explains the distinguishing factors between formal and informal institutions. It addresses five basic types of informal institutions, examines the ways in which they function and discusses their relevance in terms of democracy theory. Each type is characterized by the way in which it enacts its respective means of political influence. The study distinguishes between forms of specific relationship (clientelism), of material exchange (corruption), of violent exertion of influence (putsch threat), of civil resistance (civil disobedience) and of legal practice (custom law), and discusses their relevance to democracy. The central argument maintains that a differentiated study of informal institutions is crucial to addressing this question. The necessary typological differentiation allows us to make an appropriate assessment ‐one that does not manifest itself in a simple clear‐cut choice of affirmative or negative answers.     

Institutions,the Illegal Drug Trade,and Participant Strategies: What Corrupt or Pariah States Have In Common with Liberal Democracy and the Rule of Law

Institutions generate incentives that guide behavior, but many analysts and policymakers underestimate the power of institutions to affect behavior by ignoring how distinct strategies work to generate similar outcomes in different institutional contexts. This article uses the illegal trade in psychoactive substances to illustrate how outcomes (the size of the illegal drug market) across very distinct political institutions can be the same because individuals adopt different strategies in their pursuit of the same behavior: to participate in the illegal drug trade. The illegal trade in psychoactive substances represents an understudied and poorly studied issue in international relations. Arguments that focus on the deviant characteristics of governments in the developing world and organized crime to explain the trade are misleading for empirical and methodological reasons. I propose a general argument about the proliferation of the illegal drug trade that accounts for its success in countries struggling with poverty, corruption, terrorism, and pariah leaders, as well as in rich, stable democracies in which the rule of law “reigns.” The article takes factors that are often seen as distinct in explaining the drug trade (e.g., civil rights in liberal democracies and corruption in developing countries) and demonstrates that their explanatory logic represents variations on the same causal variable: the ability to conceal oneself. My insight is that the strategies used to achieve concealment vary by the institutional context in which participants find themselves.