从美国总统就职演说看美国的变与不变

美国43位总统的就职演说,从头读去,二百多年的美国历史发展轨迹就逐步浮现出来。其中既可以看出贯穿始终的、作为美国立国的原则和精神,也可以看出每一个阶段的变化。不变的是宪法至高无上的地位和基本社会制度,在此框架内,内政外交逐步演变。在每个历史转折点,总统个人作用有多大?总的说来,应该是“时势造英雄”。美国的制度决定了个人的权力和作用有限。不过开国元勋们个人取向可以对国家奠基产生较大的影响,华盛顿尤其如此。如果说,美国独立和美利坚合众国的成立是历史的必然,应该说,有华盛顿这样的开国元勋是美国人的幸运。从方今的小布什回头看华盛顿,美国已经走得很远了。     

美国的美国研究

本文对美国的美国研究的范畴、理论方法、美国研究专业在美国大学里的发展等问题进行了梳理。作者认为,美国研究作为一个学科和一个专业的最显著的特点,这就是跨学科性。这种跨学科性表现在美国研究领域的美国学者不囿于传统的学科门户界限,积极借鉴或引进对自己有用的任何其他学科的理论与方法,创造性地开辟与相关学科的交叉研究新领域,使美国的美国研究始终保持勃勃生机。本文认为,中国的美国研究没有必要完全模仿美国的美国研究,但在跨学科的研究方法与资源共享的专业建制这两点上,中国的美国研究可以从美国的美国研究中获得有益的借鉴。     

走出周期：美国政党政治研究的范式转换与议程重置

作为美国政治研究的核心领域之一,政党政治研究近年频频面临来自实践的挑战。主流的政党重组/关键性选举模式、历史钟摆理论和渐进改良学派不仅未能解释为何2008年与2020年两次经济社会危机都没有推动美国政党政治进入新的周期,而且无法充分回应一些重大现实问题,尤其是“特朗普现象”的兴起。围绕美国政党政治演化逻辑的既有研究本质上是基于“周期范式”的学理探索,即依据经济周期决定政治周期的历史经验,将“经济—阶级”要素视为美国政党政治演化的核心变量。然而在冷战后多元文化主义影响日盛、人口结构加速调整及社交媒体带来的“对立叙事”与政治“回音室效应”愈演愈烈等多重因素作用下,美国的政党政治已经进入“后共识”与“部落化”时代。结果是,“文化—身份”矛盾正在取代“经济—阶级”矛盾成为推动美国政党政治演化的首要矛盾。传统的政党—阶级联盟问题、意识形态的左右之争与“经济—阶级”分化主导下的公共政策辩论随之不再处于美国政党政治实践议程的中心。因此,美国的政党政治研究需要摆脱周期桎梏、进行范式转换,构建一个新的以“文化—身份”要素为核心变量的“认同范式”。相应地,其研究议程也将重置为以基于价值观认同而非经济利益的...     

从范式到研究纲领:国际关系理论的结构问题

科学哲学上的"范式"结构观在国际关系研究中具有很大的影响。然而,这种知识发展观并不符合国际关系理论发展的图式,对理论变迁动力的解释也不能令人满意。本文引入了另一种科学发展模型,即拉卡托斯的科学研究纲领方法论,从研究纲领的角度对国际关系理论的结构进行了重构,并且指出,国际关系学科中存在多种相互竞争和并存的研究纲领,拉卡托斯的知识发展模型可以被运用到对这些纲领的评估中来,这将对学科进步和理论发展具有重要的启示意义。     

美国与强制外交理论

20世纪60、70年代,美国学者最先将强制外交与威慑概念明确地区分开来,并对此展开专题研究。根据美国现有研究文献,本文阐述了强制外交的定义、效用及局限性,剖析了影响强制外交成败的因素,并对美国强制外交理论研究的现状和实质进行了评述。作者认为,分析影响强制外交成败的因素是美国学界研究的重点,旨在直接为政府的外交决策提供服务。美国是当今世界的强国,有机会和能力实施强制外交。由于美国未来可能会更多地运用强制外交,因而该专题理论研究将会得到进一步深化。     

韩国的妇女贫困状况与妇女脱贫政策

韩国自20世纪90年代开始研究妇女贫困问题。本文考察了韩国妇女贫困问题的产生、现状和表现。作者对妇女贫困的原因进行了归纳，指出相当一部分贫困妇女的贫困来自于上一代贫困的沿袭，本人教育程度不高、缺乏专业技术等。而养育子女则给贫困妇女带来了新的负担。并指出由贫困所带来的一系列问题：住所问题、健康问题、社会心理问题等。为此，政府在制定妇女脱贫政策时，要从社会福利、维持收入以及创造就业岗位与教育、职业培训等方面加以考虑。     

战后美国的儒学与民主比较研究

第二次世界大战以后,美国成为海外儒学的研究中心。就研究内容而言,对儒学与民主理论的比较研究是这一时期美国学界研究的一个焦点问题。研究大致分为研究起步、提出新研究模式和开展多层面研究三个阶段。研究重点集中于对儒学与现代西方自由民主理论的比较阐释。研究范式的更迭和演进是战后美国学界研究的一个显著特点。批判性的解读和创造性的“误读”是贯穿这一时期美国学界研究的两条主线。     

美国老年保健计划与改革

老年保健计划 (简称Medicare)是美国社会保障制度的一个主要组成部分 ,其目的是为了保障老人和残疾人士的福利 ,让全社会来分担他们的医疗费用负担。本文回顾了老年保健计划的建立和发展 ,以及在各个总统任期内所经历的改革 ,指出它目前所面临的问题是如何在医疗费用不断上升的情况下满足老年人和残障者医疗服务的长期需要。鉴于近来有不少改革方案提出 ,本文对这些改革方案进行评析 ,并指出改革的目标不应该放在削减医疗服务费用上。改革的着眼点应是如何重新安置现有的社会资源以支付因医疗技术更新而不断上升的费用。本文认为 ,对有的税制作彻底的改革也许是一个有效的途径     

美国的美国研究：基于学科发展视角

美国本土的美国研究是20世纪20年代社会和思想变革的产物,其根本属性是政治性,研究领域具有跨学科特点,并呈现出明显的跨国性。因深受美国社会的矛盾冲突和各种思潮的影响,美国的美国研究始终充满了问题、争辩、机遇与挑战。美国的美国研究在学科发展、范式、研究路径、研究对象、目标、任务以及人才培养模式等方面都具有明显的“本土性”。在当前世界处于百年未有之大变局的背景下,推动构建具有中国特色的美国研究学科体系,培养国家需要的美国研究人才,具有重要的现实意义和学术价值。     

The Political Economy of Welfare Reform and Poverty Alleviation in Ukraine

A British specialist on post-Soviet politics and economy examines public opinion constraints on welfare reform in Ukraine. The article uses extensive survey data gathered in 1998–1999 to examine public views on welfare benefits, distribution, and possible changes in targeting of benefits. Analysis is offered of how the targeting of social and economic benefits may be implemented to alter social outcomes in Ukraine.     

The Politics of Welfare State Reform

This article presents and discusses the state of the art in political science research on welfare state reform. While scholars first aimed at explaining the emergence and growth of the welfare state, national variation in its development, and crises of welfare state regimes, more recently the focus has shifted to the persistence and reform of the major welfare state institutions. Research in this direction has typically adopted an institutionalist perspective, stressing how institutional settings affect the feasibility and direction of reforms. These studies have shed light on important aspects of the question, in particular by demonstrating the role of path dependency and veto players in reform processes, but suffer from two main problems, namely the difficulty of defining the dependent variable in an appropriate way, and the neglect of the importance of power resources.     

Social policies in Switzerland and Japan: Managing Change in Liberal‐Conservative Welfare States

Both the Swiss and the Japanese welfare states are difficult to classify in any one of the most widespread typologies, as each of the two countries combines features that are typical of the liberal model, such as a large private sector role in the delivery of welfare, with aspects that are more reminiscent of the conservative model. These include a social insurance system geared toward status preservation and low employment rates for mothers. In this article, Japan and Switzerland are characterised as liberal conservative welfare states. After pointing out the key features of this hybrid welfare state model, the article puts forward some hypothesis with regard to the reform trajectory that this model is likely to follow. In particular, it is argued that retrenchment in these two countries is likely to be more substantial than in conservative welfare states, because the private schemes that are going to be curtailed are less accountable to public scrutiny and do not automatically expose retrenchment‐oriented governments to the risk of electoral punishment. The hypothesis is only partially confirmed by the empirical analysis of reform, as Swiss direct democracy institutions are proving a formidable obstacle to a generalised dismantling of welfare programmes. In Japan, uncovered needs resulting from retrenchment and social change are being picked up by families.     

African Poverty and Social Unrest

The writer, who is lecturer in African Life at the Universityof the Witwatersrand, South Africa, observes: "While undertakingfield research into African life in the city of Johannesburgduring the last few years, it was everywhere apparent to methat the institutions of marriage and the family among urbanAfricans are suffering severe dislocation under the impact ofindustrialisation and urbanisation. Some discussion on the causesand their effects are given below."     

Wedge Politics and Welfare Reform in Australia

The election of the Howard Government has marked a paradigm shift in welfare policy with the implementation of far reaching reforms around the concept of mutual obligation. At the same time, there has been media speculation about the Government's use of 'wedge politics' to sustain its political agenda with respect to welfare and other policies. Wedge politics, however, is yet to receive detailed analysis in Australian political science. We define wedge politics to be a calculated political tactic aimed at using divisive social issues to gain political support, weaken opponents and strengthen control over the political agenda. The purpose of this paper is thus twofold: to develop a definition of wedge politics and to investigate how the Howard Government's welfare reform agenda might be understood as an example of such politics, drawing out its longer-term implications.     

Welfare Performance in Southern Europe: Employment Crisis and Poverty Risk

The Great Recession has had a deep impact on employment levels and on income inequality in the Southern European countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy). It has given rise to a new stage in the discussion on the distinctiveness of a possible ‘Mediterranean’ variant of welfare capitalism. This paper analyses the performance of the Mediterranean cluster during the Great Recession period in its two main dimensions, labour market participation and poverty risk, and to what extent that performance has evolved in a divergent or convergent manner. Firstly, it portrays the main changes in this variant of welfare capitalism during the last two decades. The second and third sections, respectively, provide a comparative profile of the employment crisis suffered by these countries and of its impact on poverty risks. Finally, the main institutional traits are discussed, explaining the relative performance of welfare capitalism in this cluster of countries.     

霸权周期论的贫困--兼析美国霸权是否走向衰落

由于大国力量的兴衰和国际安全形势的新变化,霸权周期论出现了贫困.新兴国家在主观和客观上都难以与挑战国家划等号.大国合作局面的持续与美国霸权强化的并存是21世纪初国际政治发展的现象.在经济全球化和国家安全相互依存不断深化的情况下,避免大国冲突和实现霸权的和平更替是完全可能的.     

Democracy and Social Welfare in Uruguay and Paraguay

This article aims to assess how democracy affects social welfare by analyzing Uruguay and Paraguay, one country with a vibrant democratic history and a progressive political landscape, the other with a generally authoritarian past and a conservative dominant party. The article maintains that welfare systems in these countries have been critically shaped by the impact of democracy, or by its absence, and by the strategies adopted by major social and political actors, especially parties; these strategies have been determined, in turn, by parties' ideologies and by the workings of electoral competition. The article also emphasizes that the impact of democracy on social welfare is critically mediated by the role of previous welfare legacies, the presence of welfare constituencies defending acquired rights and privileges, and social and economic variables, such as overall wealth levels, the formal or informal nature of labor markets, and the political organization of domestic economies.     

蒙古社会保障"名义账户"制改革研究

为适应向市场经济的转型,蒙古于1995年建立了现收现付制养老体系,但很快就面临越来越多的难题.2000年蒙古实施了"名义账户"制改革,并开始着手建立多支撑的养老体系.本文考察了这一改革的过程和成效,并探讨了"名义账户"制在低收入发展中国家的适用性.