Trace DNA success rates relating to volume crime offences

In this study, 252 trace DNA samples (from handled surfaces) from 201 burglary, robbery and drugs cases were compiled to assess success rates and to interpret the value of trace DNA evidence in volume crime investigations. The average amount of DNA recovered from the trace DNA samples collected was 1.7 ng. Full or major (12 or more alleles) profiles were recovered from 14% of samples. Samples from firearms and burglary points of entry were the least successful. Mixtures were recovered from 21% of samples, presenting a case for the collection of more elimination profiles to enable more samples to be used for database purposes. The research highlighted the difficulties in collecting data relating to the success rates of samples. Computerised automation of this process would be extremely beneficial in the assistance of policy development, method application, training, and investigative usefulness.     

Projecting crime rates: An age,period, and cohort model using ARIMA techniques

The object of this paper is to generate forecasts of U.S. index property and violent crimes. A three-step procedure is employed. First, the age-specific crime rates are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects. Then the period and cohort effects are characterized using regression and transfer functions, respectively. Finally, these statistical models are used to generate forecasts of the period and cohort effects and hence forecasted values of the age-specific crime rates. The forecasts are compared with existing data and found to be quite accurate. Issues concerning the forecast efficiency of this approach compared to that of others are also discussed.     

Age structure and crime rates: The conflicting evidence

Because arrest rates are especially high for teenagers and young adults, criminologists have long contended that age structure changes affect crime trends. In recent years, however, this belief has been drawn into question because crime has not declined even though high-crime age groups have shrunk. We argue that the age/crime relationship is probably exaggerated because the high arrest rates for younger persons are due partly to their lesser ability to escape arrest, younger persons commit more group crime, and the age structure of victims should be taken into account. We then review 90 studies that regress crime rates on age structure; only a small minority consistently finds significant relationships. Because of methodological problems in this research, one cannot conclude that the age/crime relationship does not exist, but the weight of evidence shows that forecasts based on demographic trends are not likely to be helpful.     

Self-reported crime rates of women prisoners

This paper presents findings from the first study of female prisoners' self-reports of criminal activity. Using the criminal career paradigm to frame the analysis, self-reported estimates of crime participation and frequency rates were examined for eight felony crimes. Important similarities between women and men were found in overall patterns of crime. Specifically, a small proportion ofboth women and men described committing a large portion of the total crimes reported. These data also suggest that women and men are similar in violent crime participation — a finding that varies from the current literature. Once active in a crime type, women and men committed assault, theft, and forgery at significantly different rates; no gender differences were found in the annualized frequency rates of burglary, robbery, motor vehicle theft, fraud, and drug dealing. However, although statistical differences were not found in the overall frequency of drug dealing, specific patterns of drug dealing reflected considerable gender variation, with a larger proportion of the female sample committing very frequent (daily) drug dealing activity. The findings reflect the value of the criminal career paradigm for the study of gender differences. Future research should include largescale quantitative designs that allow detailed analyses of correlates of the distinct criminal career dimensions.Points of view are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Justice.This research was funded in part by the National Institute of Justice, Grant 87-IJ-CX-0048.     

Age-cohort analysis of arrest rates

Logistic regressions of age-period-cohort models for city arrest rates are estimated with data from seven U.S. cities for the years 1970–1980 to study the dependence of officially designated criminality in select offense categories on age. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine how dependent the findings are on details of model specification.     

An economic analysis of the post World War II decline in the Japanese crime rate

Since the end of World War II there has been a dramatic decrease in reported Japanese crime. Adult arrest rates have fallen steadily since the early 1950s and juvenile arrest rates have fallen since the early 1960s. An economic analysis of crime predicts that crime rates depend upon returns to crime relative to returns in legal pursuits and the certainty and severity of punishment. Regression analysis is used to test this theory using Japanese data. The empirical results indicate that the economic model does not outperform alternative naive models. However, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that increases in returns to legitimate work diminish both adult and juvenile crime. Unemployment affects some adult crimes but has little impact on juvenile crime. The share of the population in poverty has no significant impact on either type of crime. Increases in the certainty of punishment deters adult crime but there is little evidence that increases in either the certainty or the severity of punishment deter juvenile crime. There is weak evidence to support the hypothesis that increases in the severity of adult punishments deter crime.     

Juror decision making for juveniles tried as adults: the effects of defendant age,crime type,and crime outcome

This study examined the influences of the crime type (person or property) and the crime outcome (mild or severe) on mock jurors’ verdict and sentencing decisions for adult defendants and juvenile defendants tried as adults. Jurors read a trial summary depicting a defendant charged with aggravated robbery or second-degree burglary. The crimes had either mild or severe damage inflicted on the person or property, and the defendant's age was presented as 14 or 24. Neither the defendant age nor the crime outcome affected jurors’ verdicts; however, jurors were more likely to convict a defendant charged with a crime against a person. Jurors recommended longer sentences for an adult defendant, a defendant charged with a crime against a person, and a defendant charged with a crime with a severe outcome. The discussion explored these outcomes and the role of bias in jurors’ perceptions of defendants.     

The interaction of age with the correlates and causes of crime

We use data from a survey covering ages 15–94 to test the Hirschi/Gottfredson hypothesis that the correlates and causes of crime do not interact with age. These data reveal some nonchance interaction between age and demographic and theoretical predictors of criminal behavior that is localized in specific age categories and around particular variables and/or offenses. Overall, however, such interaction does not appear to be substantial, nor does it seem to have important consequences for generalizing from age restricted samples, particularly where generalization is of the most common type-from youth samples to adults. Therefore, despite some results contrary to a strict assertion that the causes and correlates of crime are the same for all ages, our findings support the thrust of the Hirschi/Gottfredson interaction hypothesis.     

Connecting the dots: Crime rates and criminal justice evaluation research

The National Research Council’s report on evaluating anticrime programs contains sensible suggestions for improving evaluation research in criminal justice but neglects the important role of substantive theory in linking evaluations of anticrime initiatives to variation in crime rates across time and place. A working knowledge of crime rates is essential for designing and evaluating anticrime programs. This essay calls for the development of a policy evaluation infrastructure that would support the continuous monitoring of crime rates, generate knowledge of crime-producing conditions, and link evaluation research findings to one another and to expected policy outcomes, notably crime reduction.

The reduction of violent crime through economic equality for women

Normally we do not link the reduction of violent crime with equal rights for women, this paper traces such a linkage. Central to the logic of this argument is that the distribution of the frequency of violent crime is often described by a bimodal curve which supposedly distinguishes between minor, unimportant offenders and a distinct group of serious offenders: the target for many policies being the latter. In fact, this bimodal distribution does not exist; therefore, policies based on it will be fruitless. The larger group of minor offenders is basically ignored. The distribution of violence is better described as a continuous skewed curve which retains its shape. Thus, an effective policy to reduce violence would have to shift the entire curve to the left. Reducing the more numerous acts of lesser violence rather than concentrating on the rarer cases of extreme violence would be more effective. Since much violence is nurtured in family settings, policies that decrease stress in family settings would have a meaningful impact on future violence. Stress could be reduced with greater economic equality for women, making it possible for them to leave potentially violent domestic settings. In the long term this would have an impact on violent crime.     

关于创设“继任犯”理论的构想

基于封约三年内先後出现的三个类似疑案的研究，笔者首次发现了这类犯罪是除犯罪预备、犯罪未遂、犯罪中止之外的又一种“不完整一罪”犯罪形态，首次提出了“继任犯”理论，有效解决了“继任犯”定罪乱、处罚乱问题。     

经济犯罪原因剖析与预防对策研究

经济犯罪已经成为我国市场经济环境下频发的一种犯罪类型。任何犯罪都不是一个犯罪原因简单造成的,而经济犯罪更应从社会、人的本性以及经济运行机制等方面去分析;同时,对经济犯罪的预防也应该从整体、根本上着手,在预防手段的现代化、转变立法思想、建立诚信社会等方面打防并举。     

洗钱罪疑难问题探究

洗钱已发展成为一个严重威胁国家经济运行、危害国家稳定发展的一大公害。鉴于洗钱行为的严重危害性,2006年6月29日出台的《刑法修正案(六)》在《刑法修正案(三)》的基础上又增加了三类洗钱罪的上游犯罪,此次修订具有重要意义。2006年10月31日出台的《反洗钱法》更加完善了我国的反洗钱制度。本文将针对洗钱罪的上游犯罪中的几个问题作简要分析。     

论网络犯罪的国际刑事管辖

由于网络犯罪的跨国性,网络在各国的普及与发展水平的差异,以及各国的法律制度、风俗习惯的不同,导致针对网络犯罪的刑事管辖权存在争议,成为困惑理论界和实务界的一大难题。本文首先界定了网络犯罪的概念,描述了其特征,并指出传统刑事管辖理论适用于网络犯罪国际管辖的不足和新的刑事管辖理论应用于网络犯罪管辖的现状,在此基础上,经过分析和论证,提出自己对解决网络犯罪国际刑事管辖权冲突问题的一孔之见。     

青少年犯罪预防理论的研究视角：从犯罪原因到犯罪断念的转向

断念是行为主体(特别是青少年越轨者或犯罪人)在一段稳定的时期内对犯罪偏好明显与确定的拒绝。现阶段犯罪预防措施通过控制青少年犯罪原因遏制青少年犯罪增长趋势,绩效前景颇为黯淡。从聚焦于犯罪原因分析到致力于犯罪断念研究的战略性转向将成为当代社会犯罪预防的重要突破。作为人生状态与行为过程的犯罪断念,在静态结构与动态运行的结合中发挥青少年犯罪预防的积极效果。     

计算机立法问题与对策

计算机犯罪是伴随着现代科技发展而产生的,具有智能性高、隐蔽性强、危害性大等特点。本文对计算机犯罪的概念进行界定,指出了计算机犯罪特征和对传统刑法理论的冲击,并结合我国刑法相关规定,提出了进一步完善对计算机犯罪立法的几点建议。     

证券犯罪主体特征的犯罪学分析

在客观环境基本相同的条件下,为什么只有少数人实施证券犯罪,为什么是这些人而不是其他人实施证券犯罪,这从刑法学犯罪构成的角度是难以回答的。而从犯罪学的视角看,则不难发现证券犯罪的主体在智能结构、需要结构和道德法律意识等方面均具有显著的特征,正是这些特征构成了证券犯罪的主观基础。     

The value of DNA material recovered from crime scenes

Abstract:  DNA material is now collected routinely from crime scenes for a wide range of offenses and its timely processing is acknowledged as a key element to its success in solving crime. An analysis of the processing of approximately 1500 samples of DNA material recovered from the property crime offenses of residential burglary, commercial burglary, and theft of motor vehicle in Northamptonshire, U.K. during 2006 identified saliva and cigarette ends as the main sources of DNA recovered (approximately 63% of samples) with blood, cellular DNA, and chewing gum accounting for the remainder. The conversion of these DNA samples into DNA profiles and then into matches with offender profiles held on the U.K. National DNA database is considered in terms of the ease with which Crime Scene Examiners can recover DNA rich samples of different sources, the location of the DNA at the crime scene, and its mobility. A logistical regression of the DNA material recovered has revealed a number of predictors, other than timeliness, that greatly influence its conversion into a DNA profile. The most significant predictor was found to be Crime Scene Examiner accreditation with offense type and DNA sample condition also being relevant. A similar logistical regression of DNA samples profiled that produced a match with an offender on the U.K. National DNA database showed no significance with any of the predictors considered.     

论非法经营罪的几个问题

非法经营罪的“其他严重扰乱市场秩序的非法经营行为”概括抽象,故有人认为该罪已成新的“口袋罪”,应分解或废除。理解此款只要遵循有附属刑法、行政法规、司法解释的明文规定且可追究刑责才纳入的原则,此罪就无侵犯罪刑法定原则之虑;中国现继续深化改革国情决定此罪应有灵活性,没必要分解或废除：修正案（七）颁布后的传销行为不能再定本罪。无经营主体资格出版、印刷、销售他人享有着作权的作品的,其行为既符合本罪又符合侵犯他人着作权罪或销售侵权复制品罪,属于法条竞合犯,应以后者定处。     

The Market for Scientific Crime Prevention: A Comparative Study of Canada and Venezuela

Crime prevention is an activity that, sooner or later, requires the concourse of science. But the dictates of science may not mesh well with the social, institutional and political considerations that are persistent and powerful determinants of collective action. To the extent that they are ignored, crime prevention is less scientific and more pragmatic. Using a marketing metaphor, this paper examines selected aspects of the supply of and demand for scientific crime prevention in Canada and Venezuela from 1949 to the present. In both countries, academic entrepreneurs are revealed to be a necessary factor in the sale of crime prevention to government. On the demand side, governments adopt and adapt crime prevention policies in relation to their broader perspective on social problems and social change. However, rising crime rates and climates of urgency reduce the attractiveness of crime prevention. Scientific crime prevention is easier to sell when crime rates are stable or declining.