GENERATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF CRIME: USING SIMULATION TO TEST CRIMINOLOGICAL THEORY*

This study demonstrates that computational modeling and, in particular, agent‐based modeling (ABM) offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars. ABM can be used as a means to operationalize and test hypothetical mechanisms that offer a potential explanation for commonly observed criminological phenomena. This study tests whether the hypothesized mechanisms of environmental criminology are sufficient to produce several commonly observed characteristics of crime. We present an ABM of residential burglary, simulating a world inhabited by potential targets and offenders who behave according to the theoretical propositions of environmental criminology. A series of simulated experiments examining the impact of these mechanisms on patterns of offending are performed. The outputs of these simulations then are compared with several well‐established findings derived from empirical studies of residential burglary, including the spatial concentration of crime, repeat victimization, and the journey to crime curve. The results from this research demonstrate that the propositions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, and crime pattern theory provide a viable generative explanation for several independent characteristics of crime.     

THE TRUE VALUE OF LAMBDA WOULD APPEAR TO BE ZERO: AN ESSAY ON CAREER CRIMINALS,CRIMINAL CAREERS,SELECTIVE INCAPACITATION,COHORT STUDIES,AND RELATED TOPICS*

The idea of selective incapacitation and the distinction between prevalence and incidence (participation and lambda) justify the search for a group of offenders whose criminality does not decline with age and who may be identified solely on the basis of legally relevant variables. This paper questions such research, arguing that the decline in age with crime characterizes even the most active offenders. and that the distinction between incidence and prevalence does not deserve the theoretical, research, or policy attention it has been claimed to merit (Farrington, 1985; Blumstein and Graddy, 1981–1982). In doing so, it relies on research results widely accepted in criminology. Thus, the current focus of criminological research on the “career criminal,” on selective incapacitation, and on longitudinal research remains unjustified.     

PSYCHOLOGICAL,NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL AND PHYSIOLOGICAL CORRELATES OF SERIOUS ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR IN ADOLESCENCE: THE ROLE OF SELF‐CONTROL*

Gottfredson and Hirschi claim that self‐control is the only enduring personal characteristic implicated in criminal activity. Other scholars, such as Moffitt and Rowe, claim that although self‐control is important, so are neuropsychological and physiological factors. This study attempts to adjudicate between these two positions by examining the ways in which neuropsychological factors, especially those relevant to executive function, biological factors, especially those relevant to autonomic reactivity, and self‐control interrelate to distinguish between offenders and nonoffenders. Data were obtained from adolescents attending public high schools in northern California and adolescents incarcerated in the California Youth Authority. Serious juvenile offenders evince lower resting heart rate, show poorer performance on tasks that activate cognitive functions mediated by the prefrontal cortex, especially those measuring spatial working memory, and score lower on measures of self‐control. Regression analyses indicated that although variations in self‐control distinguish between the two groups, so too do neuropsychological and biological factors, a result that both supports and refutes Gottfredson and Hirschi's contention. In contrast, variation in minor delinquency among high school students is unrelated to frontal lobe functioning and heart rate, but related to variations in self‐control.     

A METHODOLOGICAL ADDITION TO THE CROSS‐NATIONAL EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE: A FIRST TEST OF THE POVERTY‐HOMICIDE THESIS*

Dozens of cross‐national studies of homicide have been published in the last three decades. Although nearly all these studies test for an association between inequality and homicide, no studies test for a poverty—homicide association. This absence is disconcerting given that poverty is one of the most consistent predictors of area homicide rates in the abundant empirical literature on social structure and homicide in the United States. Using a sample that coincides closely with similar recent studies, applying a proxy for poverty (infant mortality) that is commonly employed in noncriminological cross‐national research, and controlling for several common covariates (including inequality), this study provides the first test of the poverty—homicide hypothesis at the cross‐national level. The results reveal a positive and significant association between a nation's level of poverty and its homicide rate. The findings also suggest that we may need to reassess the strong conclusions about an inequality—homicide association drawn from prior studies, as this relationship disappears when poverty is included in the model.     

MARRIAGE,IN‐LAWS,AND CRIME: THE CASE OF DELINQUENT BROTHERS‐IN‐LAW*

With marriage comes in‐laws, and if the in‐laws include delinquent males, their delinquency could affect the prosocial effects of the given marriage. In this article, I focus on the effect of having a convicted brother‐in‐law as a general indicator of this broader phenomenon of family‐formation processes impairing the positive impact of marriage on crime desistance. I use registry data on all men from birth cohorts 1965–1975 in Denmark (N = 69,066) to show that when a man marries, his new family ties to delinquent brother(s)‐in‐law do indeed hinder his criminal desistance. The results that take into account the characteristics of husbands, wives, their shared family‐formation process, and the criminality of male family members suggest that 1) family dynamics tend to keep criminality within family networks and 2) influences from one's broader social network through marriage are important for the protective effects of marriage. Analyses of previous conviction, co‐offending between a man and his brother‐in‐law, as well as analyses of in‐laws who reside in close proximity confirm the two mentioned main findings. In all, the findings reported in this article add to our understanding of the processes by which families are tied, and how these family‐formation processes influence men's behavior.