菲律宾2010年经济、政治与外交形势回顾

2010年的菲律宾,经济复苏形势喜人,总体表现好于预期;在国内政治方面,冲突与犯罪不断,和解稳定之路任重道远;外交方面,虽然在发展菲中经贸关系、配合美国东南亚政策以及在南海问题维护本国利益等方面有所斩获,但也因香港游客人质事件与中国关系紧张。     

Germany: A ‘Normal’ Global Actor?

Liberal-idealist and constructivist approaches to German foreign and security policy share a rejection of power politics and a ‘normalisation’ of the use of force. Wedded to a ‘civilian power’ lens, these approaches cannot explain actual policy in terms other than a re-socialisation into power politics or a decline of Germany's normative preferences. This paper argues that these approaches no longer adequately reflect the choices German leaders face. They confine analysis to normatively acceptable forms of power and structural frameworks that are increasingly in flux. As a result, they are unable to explain the impact of systemic transformation on German foreign policy and lack the analytical tools to incorporate systemic change. This paper proposes instead that a different, and more accurate, conclusion can be reached if we reassess how power, norms and structure interact in shaping German foreign policy choices. What we find is that Germany is actively engaged in developing an approach to foreign policy-making that takes account of the structural transformations in Europe and beyond and its legacy of strong normative convictions.     

The Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy: New Incentives with Slowing Growth

Abstract

Rising powers such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience two distinct stages of relative capability growth. China is currently in the first stage of growth, which is defined by increasingly rapid expansion and incentives for foreign policy accommodation. As the PRC shifts to the second stage, however, relative growth will slow, and leaders in Beijing will be presented with new incentives for foreign policy confrontation. This article formalizes a two-stage model of relative power growth and argues that China's shift to the second stage of growth will threaten regional and global stability. During this shift, the key to international security will be a coordinated, multilateral effort that responsibly balances China's growing power with a similarly expanded international role for China.     

Sino-Japanese Energy Security and Regional Stability: The Case of the East China Sea Gas Exploration

The Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea maritime resources was triggered by the unsettled maritime boundary and the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. The dispute has been ascribed by many to intensified competition between China and Japan over energy supply. However this article attributes the fundamental cause of the conflict to power politics and political distrust, which are deemed to have the key role in preventing the two governments from finding a solution. The article analyses the origin and the causes responsible for the Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea gas exploration, and then proceeds to investigate the diplomatic dialogues to reveal the key obstacles in the process.

Shifting Domestic Politics and Security Policy in Japan and Taiwan: The Search for a Balancing Strategy between China and the US

This article examines the impact of the changed domestic political environment in Japan and Taiwan in the second half of the 2000s, namely the arrival of administrations with a more moderate China policy, on their respective relations with Beijing and Washington. It seeks to find out the extent to which Japan under the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and Taiwan under the Kuomintang (KMT) may have attempted a policy shift towards accommodation of China at the expense of their respective security ties with America. The article also examines how much impact upon security policy can be traced to the changes in domestic politics in the two cases. The discussion suggests that, irrespective of the altered domestic political situation, the concern that China's growing military power may adversely affect national interests has largely trumped the political will for seeking accommodation, more so in the Japanese case than in the Taiwanese case. While both Tokyo and Taipei have avoided deferring to Beijing's interests, each has sought to strike a delicate balance between engaging China and maintaining defense ties with the US.     

中欧对软实力概念的不同认知及对双边关系的影响

软实力概念自约瑟夫.奈提出以后,迅速进入了各国的对外政策话语体系。本文将分析中国、欧盟及其成员国对软实力及相关概念的认知,并加以比较。本文认为,中欧在软实力概念的使用中在软权力资源、软实力目标、软实力运用、软实力主体和软实力外交的地位五个方面存在着明显的认知差异,这些差异对双边关系带来了四方面的负面影响:价值观差异带来的政策分歧、软实力使用方式差异引发的政策冲突、软实力外交的地位差异产生的外交议程错位,以及软实力主体差异导致欧洲民间与中国政府之间的冲撞。从中欧关系的健康发展出发,本文提出了三个方面的尝试性建议,以缓和或消解这些差异认识对中欧关系的负面影响。     

Japan and China: Security interests in the post-Cold War era

This article examines the role of Japan in relation to China’s security interests in the post-Cold War era. The first section assesses Japan as a potential security threat to China at a time when Japan appears to be re-emerging as a great power. It analyzes the possible rise of nationalism in Japan today, including discussion of China’s dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands. The second section looks at how Japan can actually enhance China’s security interests, particularly in the economic sphere. Japan’s contribution to China’s modernization drive is assessed. It is argued that Japan seems to enhance China’s security interests more than it poses a threat, partly because of the economic benefits China derives from trading with Japan, and partly because Japanese foreign policy has hitherto been kept in check by the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security Treaty.     

Positioning Norm, Principle and Interest in Chinese Foreign Policy —— The Case of the Myanmar Issue

There are different driving forces behind Chinese foreign policy decision-making. Norms, principles, and interests and the subtle combinations of them, I argue in this paper, are the major driving forces on the input side, while the domestic situation of a specific country and international pressure undercut China’s policy deliberations. By contrast, the form of government of a specific country under discussion is not an important variable. In this paper, I use China’s policy toward Myanmar as a case study. The findings prove that the integration of norms, principle and practical interests has formed the powerful impetus that drives China’s policies toward Myanmar. Among these factors, the interests China has identified in general and stability on its “doorstep” in particular play a dominant role, while the norm of human security and the principle of non-interference are embedded in its policy deliberations.     

Japan as an Active Agent for Global Norms: The Political Dynamism Behind the Acceptance and Promotion of “Human Security”

Japan has shaped a distinct human security policy based on evolving policy preferences of successive domestic political leaders and the gradual assimilation of external norms into its own foreign policy. Independent experts have played a particularly significant role in advising Japanese policy elites on how human security could be used by Japan to become an “intellectual leader” within the United Nations and other relevant institutions. This article explores those processes that occurred in the early phase of norm acceptance on the part of key Japanese policy actors and change agents in Japan from the late 1990s through 2003. It argues that human security has served as an effective approach for Japan to establish itself as a more independent foreign policy actor in contemporary international politics.     

Domestic politics of Chinese foreign policy: where will Xi Jinping bring China?

ABSTRACT

Xi Jinping has concentrated his power since he acceded to the Chinese presidency. Where will Xi bring China? In this review essay I discuss four single-authored books – one in English and three in Japanese – to explore security implications of Xi’s reform and foreign policies. In her recent book, Elizabeth Economy is critical of Xi, arguing that he is turning away from Deng Xiaoping’s reform and internationalist policies. The three Japanese China specialists concur, and further highlight the interconnectedness of domestic politics and international relations. In sum, the four books show that Xi has struggled to commit to the state-owned enterprise reform and to cooperative foreign policy due to Chinese domestic politics, and as a result, has threatened regional security in the Asia-Pacific.     

Neoliberalism and the future world

The persistence of illiberal or predatory systems of political and social power in circumstances where neoliberal market economies have advanced rapidly is often explained in terms of the last-ditch resistance of vested interests, weak institutions, or an absence of social capital. In contrast, this study argues that these seeming paradoxes are often integral to a process of neoliberal reform in that they enable the expropriation of public assets and policy agendas necessary for the emergence and consolidation of powerful private interests. At another level, the rise of neoconservative policy agendas and the blurring of state-business relations within the neoliberal camp itself may be seen to undermine the epoch of neoliberalism. This article argues that the shift toward various manifestations of empire is a political response to crises designed to preserve those hegemonic relations established by neoliberal agendas. These various mutations of markets' predatory oligarchies, illiberal politics, and empire possess a substantial internal coherence.     

也论差猜时期泰国的印支政策

柬埔寨问题产生后 ,印支政策是泰国外交政策的核心。差猜上台后实施的“战场变商场”政策因其变化性而受到广泛关注。该政策既反映了泰国政治变迁 ,又表现出泰国外交政策的继承性 ,同时亦展现了泰国的地区雄心。实质上 ,差猜时期泰国的印支政策是“双轨政策” ,即“一轨”为“战场变商场”政策 ,另“一轨”是 :以外长西提为首的泰国外交部实施 (与东盟集体政策一致 )的政策。双轨政策实质上反映了泰国国家利益 (远期与近期 )的分歧与协调及国家利益与东盟地区利益的分歧与协调。     

In the Shadow of Pacifism: Foreign Policy Choices of Germany and Japan in Afghanistan

This paper explores the policy choices of Germany and Japan for contributing to international security and stability in Afghanistan. Both countries have been closely involved with Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks 2001. It is argued that the policy choice of Japan with a low military element and high civilian element differs significantly from the German military centered approach. An analysis of the goals and motives behind the foreign policy choices reveals that in Germany the military involvement has been justified with humanitarian reasons, national self interests and the right to “unlimited” sovereignty. This logic has ultimately led to the acceptance of civilian casualties and participation into offensive counterinsurgency operations. It is suggested that elite driven discourses have determined foreign policy strategy. In the case of Japan the paper claims that the conservative LDP elite had been pushing for intensified military involvement which materialized in the dispatch of military vessels to the Indian Ocean and ground forces to Iraq. Similar to Germany these moves towards gaining international reputation were rooted in domestic politics.     

International Law and the November 2004 “Han Incident”

Abstract

The Ishigaki Strait is an international strait by the terms of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention, but for national security reasons it is not recognized as such by the Japanese government, which advocates a narrower definition of what constitutes an international strait in which the right of transit passage applies. China, as a traditional land power with tradinationally weak maritime forces, has historically agreed with Japan's limitations on access through such straits. As China's maritime strength grows, it has increasingly greater interest in access to ocean spaces. However, because of tension and poor coordination between its military and foreign policy bureaucracies, China missed an opportunity during the diplomatic crisis in November 2004 to align its position on maritime law with its strategic interests.     

Conflicting Images? Germany and the Rise of China

While Germany's ‘Chinapolitik’ under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder was driven by economic interests, Angela Merkel promised a normative turn in foreign policy toward China. This apparent turn became most visible in 2007 when she met with the Dalai Lama, which caused strong diplomatic protest from Beijing. This article asks whether Germany's foreign policy toward China did in fact shift under the leadership of Angela Merkel. Based on cognitive approaches, especially image theory, the perception(s) of China held by Chancellor Merkel and their impact on German foreign policy toward China are analysed. The findings suggest that the dominant image of China is that of a key trade partner on whom Germany's economy is increasingly dependent with little emphasis given to the political or normative discrepancies between the two countries. The article argues that Sino-German relations under Merkel appear to be more one-dimensional than the fall-out over the Dalai Lama issue suggests.     

Chinese Security in the Post-11 September World: Implications for Asia and the Pacific

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and the Bush administration's policy changes, Chinese strategic specialists are engaged in a wide ranging and increasingly public debate over China's national security strategies and priorities. Although senior leaders continue to argue that most trends remain favorable for Chinese security interests, far more cautionary assessments are also being voiced. In this article, Jonathan D. Pollack, chairman of the Strategic Research Department, US Naval War College, points out that the increased complexity and differentiation in Chinese policymaking reveals multiple trends at work. Even as Chinese policymakers emphasize their keen desire to reinforce regional stability, the longer-term picture remains clouded, from the Taiwan straits to the Korean peninsula to Central Asia to future developments in nuclear weapons policy. Pollack argues that there is a compelling need to invigorate exchanges between senior officials in Beijing, Washington, Tokyo and other major capitals, lest China and other states undertake policies that undermine the prospects for long term regional stability and security.     

Changing roles: China and the United States in East Asian security

Since the end of the cold war, many changes have been occurring in the East Asian strategic landscape. As the two most significant elements of the East Asian security equation, China and the United States share a special obligation to secure the present and future stability in the West Pacific. Both countries have to adjust their respective roles in response to the changing strategic environment: while China should take a more cooperative stance on regional security issues, the United States should be more sensitive and accommodative to regional demands. There exist several scenarios for the future of Sino-American relations, but it is desirable and possible for Beijing and Washington to form a constructive partnership with security cooperation as one underpinning pillar.     

Russia and Caspian Oil: Moscow Loses Control

A senior specialist on the Soviet and Russian economies examines issues surrounding the prominence of Caspian Sea oil in Russian policy. Attention is devoted to the evolution of Russian policy toward ownership of seabed resources, participation in international development consortia, and the routes, construction, and ownership of pipelines connecting the Caspian to world markets. Each issue is treated as one that engages the economics, politics, and security dimensions of international relations. Alternative scenarios for the future are outlined.     

Integrating domestic politics and foreign policy making: the cases of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Matters of domestic political consideration exerted a major influence on the processes of foreign policy making established and developed by the authoritarian leaderships of post-Soviet Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The preservation of internal authoritarian stability and the political survival of the national regimes have therefore constituted the key foreign policy ends set by decision makers in Ashgabat and Tashkent. This article unveils and discusses the interconnection between domestic politics and foreign policy making in post-Soviet Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by looking comparatively at the dynamics through which the regimes manipulated foreign policy to consolidate their internal power. In particular, this article will analyse the crucial role played by foreign policy in the regimes' responses to perceived threats to their political stability.     

Beijing’s Quest for Stability in its Neighborhood: China’s Relations with Russia in Central Asia

Using the English school arguments that inter-state regulation ameliorates the consequences of the power politics of international anarchy, I analyze to what extent China pursues a strategic partnership with Russia in Central Asia. I investigate if China has compatible policies with Russia on the use of force, on international legitimacy, and on institutional frameworks for security management. As China is increasingly asserting its security, economic, and institutional interests in Central Asia, similarities and differences have become apparent in relations with Russia. Increased mutual concern for continued regional stability has encouraged Beijing and Moscow to coordinate their policies across a wide range of issue areas. Stability allows them to focus attention and resources on each of their different geostrategic priorities.