Electoral Cycles, Party Organization and Mobilization in Canada

Canadian political parties oscillate between periods of inter-election quiescence and electoral year mobilization. In this paper we measure, across a series of elections, organizational activity in inter-election periods as parties develop strategic positions and seek to reshape their bases, and then their subsequent mobilization strategies and successes. Our research strategy employs ecological models rooted in electoral district level data including party resources and activity (from annual financial accounts), census data describing the electoral districts, as well as conventional aggregate electoral data. Our initial models utilise evidence from Ontario, Canada's largest province, and cover several electoral cycles that witnessed a string of governmental turnovers. This analysis provides a more nuanced model of party systems than those based on simple election results. Even in a period of remarkable electoral flux, party activity and success appear to be deeply rooted in the diverse constituency social and political contexts of the system.     

Electoral Reform, Institutional Change, and Party Adaptation in Uruguay

Uruguay's stable, institutionalized party system has undergone substantial changes in recent years, both from the increasing electoral strength of the left and from changes made to the electoral system in 1996. Analyzing the debut of that new system in the 1999 national and 2000 municipal elections, this article concludes that Uruguay is moving from what was a fairly evenly divided three-party system to one in which the longstanding traditional parties will confront, as a bloc, the stronger left. The electoral analysis shows that the bloc dynamic took over whenever elections were close between the left and one of the traditional parties.     

韩国的选举制度与政治体制

本文旨在分析韩国的选举制度如何加大了社会的不平等现象。1997年金融危机之后,韩国社会迅速走上两极化道路。本文分三个层次进行论述。一是简要介绍韩国的选举制度。这将作为支撑本文核心见解的框架。二是考察韩国选举制度导致的＂民心歪曲＂现象。三是探讨政治制度的党派特征。即使同为民主主义,但选择比例代表制还是多数制将决定其政策方向。最后,在结论部分中强调,若要使韩国的选举制度取得更加均衡的政治结果,就一定要取消现行多数制,采用比例代表制度。比例代表制将有助于实现得票和议席之间的均衡,并进一步创造平等的民主主义。     

Electoral Institutions,Social Diversity and Fragmentation of Party Systems: A Reassessment

The article examines the determinants of party fragmentation based on electoral district data from the Swiss cantons (2010‐2015). In contrast to previous studies, three different dependent variables are taken into account: firstly, the raw number of parties, secondly, the effective number of parties based on vote shares and, thirdly, the effective number of legislative parties. On all three levels, the exclusion magnitude proves to be the most important factor. Compared to this, other institutional variables contribute little explanatory power. However, apparentments are relevant in the first stage of our analysis as they increase the raw number of parties standing for election. In terms of sociological factors, we only find limited relevance. Denominational and linguistic heterogeneity do not have any impact. This can be explained by the fact that linguistic heterogeneity is only weakly pronounced at district level. The finding emphasises the importance of district‐based data for the analysis of party system fragmentation in general.     

The Strange Phenomenon of Surplus Seats in the German Electoral System

So-called ‘surplus seats’ are peculiar to the German electoral system. Several factors are responsible for the emergence of such seats, including differences in turnout, malapportionment, split-ticket voting and the party system structure. In this article, I develop a single, formal model of the emergence of surplus seats that integrates all of these factors. This model includes the most significant interactions between these factors, for the emergence of surplus seats is a complex process that can only be explained satisfactorily if we account for these interactions.     

越南选举制度改革:历程、特征与展望

随着革新开放的起步,包括立法选举、基层自治组织选举和党内选举在内的越南选举制度改革也相继启动.越南选举制度改革呈现出五个基本特征:改革时间普遍较晚;遵循立法选举→基层自治组织选举→党内选举的改革顺序;实行渐进式改革策略;采用自上而下且持续推进的改革方式;改革程度呈现阶梯形,立法选举比较成熟,基层选举开始步入制度化轨道,而党内选举正由试点转向推广.越南选举制度改革已经进入了良性的发展轨道,只要革新开明的越共高层始终保持渐进式的改革策略和自上而下且持续推进的改革方式,越南选举制度改革一定会稳步向前迈进.     

Party Politics and Economic Policy in the New Germany

Germany experienced economic malaise in the 1990s, raising the question of whether or not the political system is capable of reform. The reactions of the political parties to economic problems demonstrate an enduring set of norms about economic policy which include a generous social welfare system and an emphasis on co-operation between business and labour. However, there is a general agreement about the need for policy reform, and recent moves by the Red-Green coalition indicate a willingness to undertake significant steps towards a slightly more pluralist and liberal set of policies. The dynamic of party politics over the last decade indicate a mature, stable political system capable of reform.     

The Australian Experience of Electoral Bribery: Dealing in Electoral Support

This article explores state and federal Australian cases from the past thirty years — legal judgments, inquiries and political scandals — which implicate the law and concept of electoral bribery. Specifically it examines deals involving preferences and arrangements made between politicians and “third parties” such as lobby groups and the media. It shows that, defying assumptions that it died out a century ago, electoral bribery remains a thorny ethical and legal concept, particularly given evolving norms and electioneering practices. If bribery is to be a workable ethical or legal concept for judging contemporary electoral conduct then it needs to deal with horizontal relations between political actors rather than, as it traditionally has, to focus upon vertical relations between politicians and electors characterised by the former's efforts to buy the latter's votes.     

转型中的俄罗斯政党制度

俄罗斯政党制度转型的主要内容是从苏联时期的一党制转向西方式的多党制。它经历了从最初的混乱无序状态逐渐走向规范化和法制化的若干阶段。普京执政两年多来,对政党制度进行了一系列改革,特别是《政党法》的制定和实施,使政党在国家政治生活中的作用有所提高,初步形成了由左、中、右三派政党组成的多党制格局。但是,与西方国家的多党制相比,俄国的政党制度还不成熟,仍有不少问题。     

Explaining Electoral Reforms in Lithuania

This paper examines the numerous changes made to Lithuanian electoral laws between 1992 and 2010. It argues that the two dominant political blocs sought to avoid competition from smaller ‘challenger’ parties by reducing the proportionality of the mixed electoral system between 1992 and 2000. Despite such efforts, the number of effective parties increased and the parliamentary elections in 2000 resulted in a shift from a two-party system to a multiparty system. This created incentives for parties to ensure against future electoral exclusion by maintaining the vote aggregation rules, which had proven to allow for multipartism. This resulted in the relative stability of electoral rules between 2000 and 2010.     

Crossing Party Lines: Volatility and Ticket Splitting in Mexico (1994–2000)

This article aims to amplify our portrait of the Mexican electorate by examining the ways in which Mexican electors distributed their votes among the parties during 1994–2000, both over successive elections (volatility) and in the same election (ballot splitting). Aggregate and survey data revealed that Mexicans engaged in these two forms of electoral behaviour frequently, indicators of an electorate in flux. Regression analysis indicated that, contrary to the expectation that the politically sophisticated differentiated their votes, virtually all parts of Mexican society were equally likely to switch parties and split tickets.     

Legislative Twitter Style: Electoral Vulnerability,Social Media,and Constituency-Building in Large Multimember Electoral Systems

How do legislators use social media to cultivate their constituencies in large multimember electoral districts? Colombia's Senate nationwide district offers a suitable case to examine how lawmakers, through their behaviour on Twitter, geographically target their audiences. We employ microblog user geolocation methods which infer locations using textual content in order to identify where Colombian senators' Twitter ‘home’ is. We find that senators' location targeting on Twitter largely mirrors the geographical distribution of their votes. Deviations from that pattern mostly stem from their vulnerability to intraparty competition and the nature of their parties' organisation.     

The Electoral Cycle and Multi-Level Voting in Germany

The aim of this contribution is to analyse whether Land elections may (have) become uncoupled from the federal electoral process, and, if they have, to explore the implications for party competition in Germany. Initially, an overview is presented of the relevant theoretical models that can help unpack the relationship between different electoral arenas. Secondly, how these ideas have been applied to national and sub-national electoral competition in Germany is outlined, before an examination of the 'fit' of the data in both the pre- and post-unification periods. We conclude with reflections on two key features that have regularly surfaced in Gordon Smith's writings: party system change and political stability.     

1902 and the Origins of Preferential Electoral Systems in Australia*

Australia is the birthplace of the two main forms of preferential electoral voting — the Alternative Vote (AV) and the Single Transferable Vote (STV) methods. Accident and force of circumstances largely explain their introduction. The Hughes Government introduced the AV system in 1918 in an attempt to prevent the right‐of‐centre parties from splitting their support to the benefit of the ALP. In 1948 the Chifley Government moved to replace the Senate's preferential block system with the STV method in an attempt to electorally contain Menzies. Yet credit also needs be given to the deliberate efforts and clear intentions of their designers. The electoral systems proposed in 1902 were ahead of their time. Indeed, 1902 marked an important step in the design of Australia's electoral system. Once the debate had crystallized around the relative merits of preferential methods, it was only a matter of time before the Commonwealth would see their adoption.