SCIENTIFIC FACT AND VALUE IN U.S. OCEAN DUMPING POLICY

Controversy among scientists over appropriate use of the ocean for waste disposal impedes U.S. policy in this area. The problem arises in part because scientific uncertainty over the fate and effects of wastes released into the ocean requires a large element of judgment, and hence value, when the uncertain science is applied to policy. Scientists often supply that judgment and so impose their values, though seldom explicitly, on policy. Further, science often determines policy because many perceive it as an objective basis for decisionmaking and so less subject to the debate that arises from weighing public preferences in policymaking. Thus, scientists' values rather than the public's come to set policy. The resulting policy may elevate one expert's values over another's. Then as values and so interpretation of science shift, policy changes. Or, as in the case now with arguments over the ocean's ability to assimilate many anthropogenic wastes, conflicting science, really conflicting values, results in an agreement and policy inertia. These problems are partially circumvented when scientists make the nonscientific factors behind their reasoning clear. These factors may then be evaluated by the public along with the supporting scientific evidence. Thus, weighing the welfare of society rather than resolving conflicts among scientists becomes the focus of policy.     

ETHNICITY AND VOTING PATTERNS IN SOUTH AFRICA

Abstract There is some controversy concerning the role of ethnicity in South African electoral behavior. Since the society is segmented on ethnic lines it is to be expected that ethnicity would play a crucial role in affecting political choices. Some writers have gone so far as to suggest that ethnicity is the only significant factor affecting voting preferences. The controversy arose at a time when Goodman's method of log-linear analysis for hierarchical models had not yet been developed. This method provides the most powerful tool available for the multi-variate analysis of categorical data. A re-analysis of previously published research using Goodman's method shows that ethnicity is not the only significant factor having a bearing on voting preferences. The first four-way table of voting preferences in South Africa is presented. The order of importance of the variables affecting party choice is: (1) ethnicity (2) socio-economic status (3) age of the voter. The recursive model suggested by the analysis explains approximately 98 per cent of the data.     

SOVIET AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN THE 1980

During the early 1960s. the USSR entered a stage where the pent-up forces for a higher standard of living no longer could be ignored. These forces showed in an increased demand for high-quality food products, particularly meat, and raised Soviet demand for feed grains. The Soviets came to rely increasingly on the world grain market for these—particularly on the United States. Nonetheless, consumer discontent over food supplies and the reliance on imported grain was a strategic weakness which the United States sought to exploit in 1980. The USSR reacted by formulating a IIFood PrOgramI1 that is the basis of today's Soviet agricultural policy. Its implications for trade could be significant.     

WORKFARE IN THE 1980s: SUCCESSES AND LIMITS

Between 1981 and 1987 twenty-eight states experimented with workfare programs. By requiring mandatory community service from welfare recipients, the states hoped to reduce welfare caseloads as well as increase community service. Based in part on those program experiences, Congress included the first national workfare requirement in the 1988 welfare reform package (the Family Support Act). This study is the first to attempt to evaluate the implementation and impact of workfare on a national basis. A pooled, cross-section, longitudinal model is used to estimate the effect of workfare on AFDC caseloads. Despite the low level of state-level implementation, the evidence suggests that workfare may have contributed to welfare caseload reductions in the 1980s.