Incorporating immigrant flows into microsimulation models

Building on the research on immigrant earnings reviewed in the first article of this series, "Research on Immigrant Earnings," the preceding article, "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models," linked research results to various issues essential for incorporating immigrant earnings into microsimulation models. The discussions of that article were in terms of a closed system. That is, it examined a system in which immigrant earnings and emigration are forecast for a given population represented in the base sample in the microsimulation model. This article, the last in the series, addresses immigrant earnings projections for open systems--microsimulation models that include projections of future immigration. The article suggests a simple method to project future immigrants and their earnings. Including the future flow of immigrants in microsimulation models can dramatically affect the projected Social Security benefits of some groups.     

Policy analysis through microsimulation: the STATS model

This article gives a nontechnical introduction to a microsimulation model developed by the Social Security Administration to consider the effects of tax and benefit proposals on the economic status of population groups. This model, the Simulated Tax and Transfer System (STATS) model, uses information from a nationally representative survey of households to calculate taxes or benefits for thousands of persons or families, case by case. Then the model aggregates across individual cases to produce estimates for economic and demographic groups of interest to policymakers. Groups are defined by such characteristics as family income, age, sex, and marital status. The article explains the model's microsimulation approach and its emphasis on the economic status of population groups. It describes the procedures for simulating taxes and benefits and then illustrates the use of the model by considering a proposal to change the way Social Security benefits are taxed. The article also discusses the primary data source and the extent to which it limits the types of estimates that the model can produce.     

English reactions to immigrants now and 70 years ago

In 1917 the ‘Jewish‐Bolshevik’ threat replaced the Jewish‐German’ menace in British popular opinion. The Morning Post and The Times were in the forefront of the campaign to promote White Russia and attribute the Bolsheviks' rise to power as part of a worldwide Jewish conspiracy. The press's antisemitic agitation was, however, limited in scope and, with the exposure of The Protocols in 1921, was relegated to extreme‐right publications.     

碳纤维补强在结构变更中应用

碳纤维具有强度高、自重轻、施工方便、快捷、应用广泛等优良性能,本文以一个工程应用为例,介绍利用碳纤维布在结构变更加固中的计算方法和施工工艺.     

Citizenship,identity and transnational migration: Arab immigrants to the United States

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the changing relationships between identities, citizenship and the state in the context of globalisation. We first examine the ways in which scholars discuss changes in the ways in which citizenship and political identity are expressed in the context of international migration. We argue that much of the discussion of transnationalism and diaspora cling to an assumption that citizenship remains an important—though not defining—element of identity. Our position, by contrast, is that migration is one of a number of processes that transform the relationship between citizenship and identity. More specifically, we argue that it is possible to claim identity as a citizen of a country without claiming an identity as ‘belonging to’ or ‘being of’ that country, thus breaking the assumed congruity between citizenship, state and nation. We explore this possibility through a study of Arab immigrants in the US. Our findings, based on interviews with activists and an analysis of Arab American websites, suggest that concerns with both homeland and national integration are closely related to each other and may simultaneously inform immigrants' political activism. These findings indicate a need to identify multiple axes of political identification and territorial attachment that shape immigrants' sense of political membership. We argue for the importance of thinking about transnationalism as a process—and perhaps a strategy—as migrants negotiate the complex politics of citizenship and identity.     

Using threshold models to explain international relations

The outcome of political opposition or revolution is a public good, which suggests that free riding will diminish the effectiveness of these forms of collective action. The private gains from contributing to collective goals are increased, however, if individuals place some value on ideological conformity or group identity. Nevertheless, some external stimulus is often needed to set in motion a tendency toward social motivation that is strong enough to outweigh the free rider incentive. This paper investigates the extent to which international pressure and demonstration effects can serve to signal support for the objectives of domestic groups in a target country and thereby mobilize collective action in pursuit of their goals. It is of interest to know not only the extent to which inherent barriers to effective collective action are overcome by outside support, but also to show how foreign economic policy can have an impact on political processes in the target country even when that policy itself has minimal economic effects.     

Naturalization ceremonies and the role of immigrants in the American nation

Although immigration is an essential element in the American national story, it presents difficulties for constructing national membership and national identity in terms of shared intrinsic values. In this article, I analyze speeches made at naturalization ceremonies during two time periods (1950–1970 and 2003–present) to examine the evolving roles of immigrants, as articulated to immigrants themselves. Naturalization ceremonies are a unique research site because the usually implied nationalist content is made explicit to brand new members of the nation. I find a shift in the framing from immigrants as potential liabilities and weak links in the earlier period to immigrants as morally superior redeemers of the American nation in the later period. I discuss the significance of this shift and the relationship between the roles presented at naturalization ceremonies and the discourse found elsewhere in the public sphere.     

Political action of immigrants in the Netherlands: class or ethnicity?

Abstract. The political action of immigrant ethnic minorities in the Netherlands is examined in an attempt to assess the relevance of the neo-Marxist theory of the British sociologists Miles and Phizacklea, who identify three processes of political action: the black unity process, the class unity process and the ethnic organisation process. On the basis of available evidence from the Dutch case it is argued that in present circumstances neither black unity nor class unity are very likely, and that immigrants are likely to adopt an ethnic organisation perspective. Such a perspective is not due to racial exclusion within the working class. This conclusion differs from that of Miles and Phizacklea. It is shown that the theory applies to societies in which classes or class fractions can be clearly identified, but less to societies of another type such as the Dutch. Moreover, it is shown that Miles and Phizacklea tend to overemphasise the effects of native white racism on immigrant political action and neglect the dynamics of ethnicity and its mobilising force.     

International Capital Mobility in an Era of Globalisation: Adding a Political Dimension to the 'Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle'

The debate about the scope of feasible policy-making in an era of globalisation continues to be set within the context of an assumption that national capital markets are now perfectly integrated at the international level. However, the empirical evidence on international capital mobility contradicts such an assumption. As a consequence, a significant puzzle remains. Why is it, in a world in which the observed pattern of capital flows is indicative of a far from globalised reality, that public policy continues to be constructed in line with more extreme variants of the globalisation hypothesis? I attempt to solve this puzzle by arguing that ideas about global capital market integration have an independent causal impact on political outcomes which extends beyond that which can be attributed to the extent of their actual integration.     

Legalization and dissolution of consensual unions: an example of log-linear models used to estimate models of competing risk

"This is a mainly methodological work: a generalization of the so-called proportional risk models to cases of multiple and competing risks.... Proportional risk models are an extension of the methodology implied in calculating mortality tables, where the risk function is made to depend on some variables (covariables), as in a regression model.... Life-table methodology has been...an essential instrument in demographic calculus and analysis." The author uses the proposed methods to analyze the determinants of the legalization and dissolution of consensual unions in Mexico. (EXCERPT)