The Cuban family: principal sociodemographic features that have characterized its development and dynamics

"This study deals with the principal sociodemographic features which have characterized the development and dynamics of the Cuban family during the last decade. It also describes the way in which sociocultural changes taking place in Cuba have influenced the family. The article includes an analysis of average age at first marriage or union, types of marriage, changes in fertility rates (and how women contribute to these changes depending on their age), and the dissolution of the family unit." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Mirroring Risk: The Cuban Missile Estimation

The Cuban Missile Crisis is by this point well known to all scholars of international politics. Yet, although it has yielded countless lessons over the years, one critical aspect of the case has remained unexamined: the failure of estimation prior to the crisis that led US officials to discount the possibility of a missile deployment in Cuba. This article re-examines US intelligence estimates of the Soviet Union prior to the Cuban Missile Crisis in light of the concept of ‘mirroring risk’, introduced in this article. I present a framework for understanding a class of intelligence failures that are caused by the mis-assessment of how an adversary frames a decision and the risks that they are willing to take. I also present a new two-stage process for understanding how individuals assess the risk-propensity of adversaries in international politics.     

The 1962 Cuban intelligence estimate: A methodological perspective

The performance of American intelligence in the 1962 Cuban crisis was measured inadequately. An account of its failures suggests that the roots of poor performance, and of SNIE 85–3–62 in particular, were in a flawed methodological approach. Problems in four aspects of the intelligence methodology are identified: in the use of comparative logic; in the use of evidence for theory validation; in the formulation of research questions; and in the development and review of assumptions. Finally, the methodological discussion yields lessons concerning the analysis of intelligence performance and makes suggestions for improvement of the intelligence assessment process.     

The world revolution of our time: a review and update

In 1935 Harold D. Lasswell introduced constructs of the world revolution to improve the rational selection of topics and timing for policy research. This article reviews and updates his construct of the skill revolution arising from the differentiation of specialized environments in modern society, including three variants: the garrison-state construct, the permanent revolution of modernizing intellectuals, and the unspeakable revolution. Among transformations of the skill revolution facilitated by the growing interdependence of modern society, or globalization, are contending fundamentalist and cosmopolitan revolutions. A Gnostic revolution of declining faith in Western civilization is also possible. This article concludes with a preferential construct tracing a possible sequence of events leading toward a world order of peace, welfare and social justice.