The Fables and Foibles of Federal Capital Budgeting

This article critically evaluates the notions behind proposals to institute capital budgeting at the federal level. Four critical assumptions are found to be behind the contention that capital budgeting will improve federal investment policies: (1) an agreed-upon and accepted definition of a capital budget exists; (2) a capital budget "adds value" by improving the quality of information; (3) better information leads to better decisions; (4) better decisions lead to better actions. Each of these assumptions is evaluated using examples drawn from various levels of government and from the private sector. The general finding is that if these assumptions hold, then it is reasonable to expect that capital budgeting will lead to better programmatic decisions. Unfortunately, one or more of these assumptions usually does not hold and for this reason the case for federal capital budgeting is not very strong     

An Alternative Approach to Estimating Who is Most Likely to Respond to Changes in Registration Laws

Scholars often seek to understand which individuals are most responsive to the change in some treatment. Such work inevitably faces issues of identification. When the dependent variable is binary, the assumption that the largest effect occurs where p = 0.5 is also encountered. I apply Manski’s [(1995). Identification problems in the social sciences. Cambridge: Harvard University Press] non-parametric Bounds approach, which relaxes the functional form and distributional assumptions found in traditional models, in an attempt to resolve the long standing debate on which types of individuals are most affected by changes in registration laws. Under the standard assumption that treats the selection of registration laws as exogenous, the results revise the current understanding. By exploring the power of various behavioral assumptions, new insights into the study of policy changes emerge, calling into question some of the assumptions that are standard in the literature.

Rational Choice and the Policy Sciences

This article discusses the possibility of applying deductively based rational choice theories as analytical tools for understanding complex policy problems. It surveys the basic assumptions, axioms and rules of interpretation on which the theory is constructed and some of its important findings. Two of its more interesting results, that of the "paradox of voting" and of the "prisoner's dilemma," are presented and applied herein.     

Comparing Models of Strategic Choice: The Role of Uncertainty and Signaling

e-mail: wand{at}stanford.edu Testing the fit of competing equilibrium solutions to extensiveform games crucially depends on assumptions about the distributionof player types. To illustrate the importance of these assumptionsfor differentiating standard statistical models of strategicchoice, I draw on a game previously analyzed by Lewis and Schultz(2003). The differences that they highlight between a pair ofperfect Bayesian equilibrium and quantal response equilibriummodels are not produced by signaling and updating dynamics asclaimed, but are instead produced by different assumptions aboutthe distribution of player types. The method of analysis developedand the issues raised are applicable to a broad range of structuralmodels of conflict and bargaining.     

VICTORY IS NOT POSSIBLE: A REJOINDER TO THE STRATEGIC MYTHMAKERS

The current strategic planning for nuclear war is based on the assumptions that it is an effective way to deter the Soviet Union and that we can actually survive such a war. These are erroneous, for the Soviets are not likely to be any more deterred by our plans for nuclear war than they are by our current strategy. The illusion that "victory" is possible in a nuclear war overlooks the medical and other evidence about the extent of death, injury and disease that a nuclear war would bring. War should be conducted with a view of post-war benefit in mind, but a nuclear war would yield no benefits, regardless of the futile and even delirious efforts to make evacuation plans for major cities in the event of nuclear war.     

The Enduring Colony? Political Institutions and Political Science in Canada

The article distinguishes between parliamentary sovereigntyas a representative, functionally effective, and mixed and balancedinstitution, and the practice of legislative supremacy in Canada.It is argued that Canada retained its colonial and executivecentered system of government but replaced the imperially-appointedelites with indigenous elites. It is suggested that this latterconception of "legislative supremacy" is failing by its ownstandards of representativeness and administrative efficiency.Much of the writings of Canadian political science reflect andrationalize the operative assumptions of this executive centered"colonial" type of system of government.     

Work-Family Balance and Job Satisfaction: The Impact of Family-Friendly Policies on Attitudes of Federal Government Employees

We use the 1991 Survey of Federal Government Employees to test a theoretical framework regarding the relationships between work and family demands, family-friendly policies, satisfaction with work-family balance, and job satisfaction for diverse groups of employees with different personal and family needs. We find that a variety of policies widely presumed to be "family friendly" were used to varying degrees by disparate groups of federal employees. The use of such policies had very diverse effects on both employee satisfaction with work-family balance and job satisfaction, within and across various groups of similarly situated employees. The assumptions underlying the provision of family-friendly policies and implications for the organization are examined.     

Environmental Policy as a Political Problem

The politics of the environment may not be unique, but they present some distinctive characteristics. In undertaking policy analyses and administrative strategies an appreciation of concepts, assumptions and circumstances, and underlying environmental policy issues is needed. To ignore these fundamentals is to risk superficiality in analysis, and error in findings and conclusions. Yet getting down to basics is often rejected as diversion from the goal of analysis. It deviates from a "straight to the point" approach, adds cost and time to investigation, and seldom interests practical-minded analysts. Even so, this paper will be prefaced by a concise reminder of some basic factors that make environmental policy problematic. Among these are: (1) incompatible concepts of man-nature relationships—notably conflict between perceived facts and values, (2) inadequate comprehension of the complexities of nature, (3) sectoral subdivisions of knowledge, (4) assumptions, situations and motivations in environmental politics, (5) fractionated structure of laws and administration, and (6) short-range perception of time. In addition to these conceptual factors the widely varied subject-matter of environmental politics narrows the scope of generalization for policy purposes.     

An Estimator for Some Binary-Outcome Selection Models Without Exclusion Restrictions

This article provides a new maximum-likelihood estimator forselection models with dichotomous dependent variables when identicalfactors affect the selection equation and the equation of interest.Such situations arise naturally in game-theoretic models whereselection is typically nonrandom and identical explanatory variablesinfluence all decisions under investigation. When identicalexplanatory variables influence selection and a subsequent outcomeof interest, the commonly used Heckman-type estimators identifyfrom distributional assumptions about the residuals alone. Whenits own identifying assumption is reasonable, the new estimatorallows the researcher to avoid the painful choice between identifyingfrom distributional assumptions alone and adding a theoreticallyunjustified variable to the selection equation in a mistakenattempt to "boost" identification. The article uses Monte Carlomethods to compare the small-sample properties of the estimatorwith those of the Heckman-type estimator and ordinary probit.     

Who has standing in cost-benefit analysis?

The issues involved in deciding whose preferences are to be counted in cost-benefit analysis are often misunderstood or controversial. This paper attempts to resolve the issues in a number of particular cases by looking to the fundamental value assumptions underlying cost-benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis is useful only to the extent that there exists a general consensus that the value assumptions are legitimate. Certain implications of the value assumptions prove useful in deciding what preferences have standing.     

Takeovers of Local Governments: An Overview and Evaluation of State Policies

This article examines state interventions, sometimes amountingto nearly total takeovers, into the affairs of financially distressedlocalities and "academically bankrupt" school districts. Drawingon several examples, this study suggests that state legislatorsand administrators have been cautious about intervening in theaffairs of specific local governments. However, the decisionsmade by state officials on how to approach intervention, particularlywhether to be reactive or proactive, and the assumptions theymake about the nature of the problems to be remedied, help determinewhether takeover is friendly or hostile and its effectiveness.     

Punctuating Which Equilibrium? Understanding Thermostatic Policy Dynamics in Pacific Northwest Forestry

A key theme among seminal contributions to policy studies, including Baumgartner and Jones (1993; 2002) , Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith (1993) , and Hall (1989; 1993) , is that "external perturbations" outside of the policy subsystem, characterized by some type of societal upheaval, are critical for explaining the development of profound and durable policy changes which are otherwise prevented by institutional stability. We argue that these assumptions, while useful for assessing many cases of policy change, do not adequately capture historical patterns of forest policy development in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Differences in policy development concerning state and federal regulation of private and public forest lands governing the same problem, region, and population challenge much of the prevailing orthodoxy on policy dynamics. To address this puzzle, we revisit and expand existing taxonomies identifying the levels and processes of change that policies undergo. This exercise reveals the existence of a "thermostatic" institutional setting governing policy development on federal lands that was absent in the institutions governing private lands. This thermostatic institutional arrangement contained durable policy objectives that required policy settings to undergo major change in order to maintain the institution's defining characteristics. Policy scientists need to distinguish such "hard institutions" that necessitate paradigmatic changes in policy settings from those that do not permit them.     

THE ROLE OF PUBLIC PROGRAMS AND PRIVATE MARKETS IN REEMPLOYING DISPLACED WORKERS

This paper is about the reemployment difficulties of "mainstream" workers dislocated in mid-career by structural economic change. Contrary to popular assumptions, empirical evidence suggests that most workers in this category do not encounter extraordinary reemployment difficulties.
For those that do, the root problem is not dislocation per se but rather such well-known failures of the private labor market as geographic immobility, underinvestment in training, and inefficient labor exchange institutions. Public policy should be structured in terms of correcting these market failures, not in terms of dislocated workers as atarget group.     

Black-box models of candidate evaluation

All contemporary models of candidate evaluation are memory-based models in that they treat the direction and strength of evaluation as a function of the mix of positively and negatively valued (valenced) information retrieved from memory. Yet, oddly enough, despite the assumption that memory mediates judgment, none of the major models looks at the processes involved in what information voters recall and how that evidence was integrated into a summary evaluation. In this sense then, political science models of vote choice are black-box models: They are silent about how voters actually go about interpreting information and integrating the evidence into a summary evaluation of the candidates. In this article we critique the major political science models, call attention to the implicit assumptions they make about what evidence is assumed to be in memory, and conclude with an argument for introducing process into our explanations of vote choice.     

Attitudes,behaviors, and the influence of the family: A reexamination of the role of family structure

Political socialization researchers have long declared the importance of the family to the socialization of young people. But political science has not kept pace with the dramatic changes in family over the last 25 years. Where, in the past, family was generally a two-parent family, today more than 25 percent of the families with children under 18 are single-parent families. This research seeks to reexamine the traditional assumptions about how family structure influences socialization by testing the hypothesis that young adults raised in single-parent families experience different patterns of political socialization than those raised in two-parent families. However, the data provide no support for this hypothesis. There is no relationship between family structure and political efficacy, political knowledge, or political participation, and only a weak one between structure and political trust.     

The Blues Voice of Houston Baker,Jr. as Political Theory: An(Other) American Paradigm?

The work of Houston Baker, Jr. in Afro-American literary studies is almost unparalleled. Baker argues that in America there is a distinctive American cultural language, a vernacular, only black Americans share in by virtue of their race. This distinctive language is the result, he argues, of their condition with regard to the larger American culture and society. Baker claims that because of the "special circumstances" (chattel slavery and continued racism) that black Americans found and continue to find themselves in they have had to devise social, cultural, and political strategies that were significantly different from the dominant "white" culture. Thus, Baker argues, special analytic "tools" are necessary for grasping the ultimate messages contained in the cultural (political) works of Afro-American writers and thinkers. It is my argument that Baker is engaging in an explicitly political project. My intention in what follows is to "decode" Baker's work, to ferret out the assumptions and political theory behind his attempt at transfiguration of American cultural discourse. It is my contention, finally, that his method is unlikely to secure what is in its broadest form a very worthwhile political project.     

Empirical versus Theoretical Claims about Extreme Counterfactuals: A Response

Langche Zeng Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 e-mail: lazeng{at}ucsd.edu In response to the data-based measures of model dependence proposedin King and Zeng (2006), Sambanis and Michaelides (2008) proposealternative measures that rely upon assumptions untestable inobservational data. If these assumptions are correct, then theirmeasures are appropriate and ours, based solely on the empiricaldata, may be too conservative. If instead, and as is usuallythe case, the researcher is not certain of the precise functionalform of the data generating process, the distribution from whichthe data are drawn, and the applicability of these modelingassumptions to new counterfactuals, then the data-based measuresproposed in King and Zeng (2006) are much preferred. After all,the point of model dependence checks is to verify empirically,rather than to stipulate by assumption, the effects of modelingassumptions on counterfactual inferences. Author’s note: Easy-to-use software to implement the methodsdiscussed here, called "WhatIf: Software for Evaluating Counterfactuals,"is available at http://gking.harvard.edu/whatif. All informationnecessary to replicate the analyses herein can be found in King and Zeng (2008).Conflict of interest statement. None declared.     

Dealing with Uncertain Budget Forecasts

The article reviews the history of past budget projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The projections have been extremely inaccurate because of errors in the choice of economic and technical assumptions. The errors grow rapidly as the projection's period is lengthened. The projections are unlikely to get better soon. Therefore, the question becomes how CBO, the Congress, and the media should react to the extraordinary uncertainty that must be attached to the budget outlook. Among other things, the author suggests de-emphasizing projections made for periods longer than five years, because such projections are only a little better than random noise. He also points out the futility of aiming for rigorously enforced numerical targets for the budget balance, as was done in Gramm-Rudman and as has been proposed in various types of "lock box" legislation. The targets move around too rapidly to ever be hit.