冷战后美欧关系的结构分析

在冷战结束至今的 1 0多个年头里 ,随着一系列事件的发生和纷繁复杂的利益关系的多重表现 ,美欧之间在多个领域的关系框架发生变化 ,冲突和矛盾不断增多。这些变化虽未导致联盟关系的破裂 ,却具有结构性的特点。从美欧共同战略目标的丧失到各自不同的战略追求和政策取向 ,从美欧在国际政治重大问题上不同的理念到能力分配的不平衡 ,预示着美欧关系的变化是必然的。这种变化虽然不是全面的对抗与非合作 ,却带有某种根本性并且不同于以往联盟的模式     

Surpassing the Cold War Mentality

Five years have passed since September 11. What has been the influence of these events on international relations? What has changed in the world since then? The majority of scholars hold that the September 11 terrorist attacks were essentially a key event, a "turning point" in the international strategy transformation after the Cold War.Yet some others believe that the September 11 terrorist attacks cannot have had so profound an impact on international relations. For example, in America's Foreign Policy, most articles commemorating the fifth anniversary of September 11 fall into the second category. These articles suggest that, five years after September 11, security issues have not slowed down the pace of globalization; potential strategic competition among the big powers has not been weakened due to their cooperation in counter-terrorism and international terrorist organizations, represented by Al Qaeda, still exist. Meanwhile, many proturning-point scholars think that, after September 11, terrorism has become the main threat to international security and that the strategic focuses of major powers have also undergone a big adjustment, valuing cooperation over competition. There is even a saying that "the central content of international relations is to meet challenges from the non-state actors represented by terrorism."     

冷战后东南亚国家南海政策的发展动向与中国的对策思考

本文主要从南海争端方国家、非南海争端方国家、东盟3个层次分析了冷战后东南亚国家南海政策的发展动向。对于南海争端方国家，重点分析了越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚的南海政策；对非南海争端方国家重点分析了新加坡和泰国的南海政策；对于东盟的南海政策，本文指出协调成员国在南海问题上的立场，发表联合声明表达对南海问题的立场，直接就南海问题与中国进行对话，通过东盟地区论坛讨论南海问题构成了东盟对南海问题施加影响的主要方式。在对策思考方面，本文指出中国未来的南海政策应该侧重以下几点：继续将“搁置争议，共同开发”作为解决南海问题的基本原则；坚持“双边协商”的具体策略，力避南海问题的国际化；保持与东盟在南海问题上的沟通，确保东盟不致形成在南海问题上对中国不利的一致立场；在南海区域安全机制的构建和海洋安全维护方面发挥更大的作用。     

"后后冷战时代"观的思考

本文就美国政要“9·11”后提出的所谓“后后冷战时代”观进行了评析 ,认为此一提法既是美国政要对当前时代的一种概括 ,也包含潜在的战略意图 ,即借机整合世界 ,塑造反恐新形势下美国主导的国际政治新秩序。对于“后后冷战时代”观 ,各国虽认识到其中的合理性 ,但也多少看清了美国背后的战略用心 ,因而并不积极呼应 ,致使这一概念未广泛流行。对于中国 ,“后后冷战时代”观能否成为国际通用的“范式”并不重要 ,关键在于体悟其背后的战略内涵 ,制定更为合理的对外战略。     

冷战与越战的起源

冷战 ,指的是二次世界大战结束以后形成的各自以苏联和美国为首的东西方两大政治、军事集团之间的紧张斗争和较量。这种斗争的形式既是和平的也是非和平的。苏联和美国是冷战的主角 ,它们之间的关系构成了东西方冷战的核心内容 ①。一般把1947年美国“杜鲁门主义”的出台作为冷战开始的标志 ,把1991年苏联的解体作为冷战结束的标志 ,持续时间长达44年之久。越南战争是指二战后美国在越南进行的干涉和战争。关于越战的起始时间 ,学术界说法不一 ,笔者以1961年肯尼迪发动特种战争为标志②。越战的起源与冷战有着密切的联系。一、20世纪50年代…     

A systemic perspective on regional integration after the end of the Cold War

This paper explains the systemic pressures on states in Europe and Southeast Asia to broaden their alliances after the end of the Cold War, and how expansion impacts on regional integration. Inter-state cooperation is still very much the basis of regional integration. In Europe, states will scuttle attempts at deepening integration if this threatens their security, as the recent political impasse in the European Union reveals. In Southeast Asia, by contrast, the threat to the security of states arises from their failure to deepen economic integration in order to survive an anarchic world financial system. This failure is due to entrenched internal constraints that prevents closer inter-state cooperation and the pooling of sovereignty. Thus, while attempts to move into the area of political union will be resisted by states eager to maintain their sovereignty, the inability to advance into the area of monetary union can only lead to demise of states.

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Making a Cold War in the Near East: Turkey and the Origins of the Cold War, 1945-1947

During the post-war negotiations in the years of 1945 and 1946, the Soviets launched a bitter war of nerves against Turkey in order to establish a military base in Istanbul and share control of the Straits. It was crucial for Britain that the USSR be prevented from gaining any influence in Turkey. However, as Britain was in no position to support Turkey financially, American authorities encouraged by London and Ankara took over the responsibility for Turkey. This articles examines the Great Powers rivalry over Turkey and Turkey's response to it. It argues that regional factors other than US-Soviet confrontation, such as Turkey's security search against the Soviets, also played a crucial part in starting the Cold War in the Near East.     

冷战后驻韩美军调整评述

驻韩美军是美韩安全关系极为重要的组成部分和历史见证。 2 0 0 2年 1 0月朝核危机以来的驻韩美军重新部署既是朝鲜战争以来历次调整的继续 ,更是对过去的超越 ;既是冷战后美国新军事战略的体现 ,又是当前朝核危机的产物。这一调整必将对目前朝核危机的最终解决以及东北亚地区脆弱的安全均势造成深远的影响。     

冷战时期的土美关系

二战结束后，苏联的威胁、美国的拉拢和对援助的需求使土耳其向美国接近。在对抗苏联这一共同目标下，土耳其和美国最终在1952年结成战略同盟关系。随着国际和国内形势的变化，土美关系中的矛盾日益显现，1975～1978年美国对土耳其实行武器禁运是两国关系的最低点。解除武器禁运后，土美关系趋于缓和，但土耳其更加注意维护本国和民族的利益，而决不再唯美国马首是瞻。     

冷战后的越美关系

冷战后,经过艰难的谈判,越南与美国实现了关系正常化,之后两国关系快速发展。本文着重分析了在两国关系快速发展背后各自的战略意图及其对东亚格局的影响,并对越美关系发展的前景进行了展望。     

Exception in Cold War

In the Cold War, India mainly focused its Southeast Asia Strategy on preserving the regional peace and stability, fearing that changes in Southeast Asia would impact India. Generally speaking, India would like to see a relatively strong, stable and independent Southeast Asia, which would guarantee the stability of its east wing. However, fettered by its limited power, its non-alignment policy and its special relation with Soviet Union, India‘s policy toward Southeast Asia remained relatively passive and its relation with Southeast Asia was, to some extent, trapped in a historical “intermission.“……     

核问题:冷战后伊朗民族主义发展的解读

民族主义具有鲜明的政治属性,它是重塑民族精神的主要手段。伊朗核问题其实就是冷战结束后伊朗民族主义政治化的产物,是伊朗民族主义忧患意识、民族复兴意识的集中体现,也是实现国内民族团结、动员一切社会力量进行经济建设的旗帜,同时还是民族主义历史进步性的重要表现。核武器化的民族主义具有两面性:一方面,它是维护政府权威、转移国内矛盾的工具;另一方面,它也是自我封闭和诱发民族极端主义的基础,容易引发非理性的,甚至是被扭曲的爱国主义。     

Changing the Rules: A Speech Act Analysis of the End of the Cold War

Constructivists often refer to the end of the Cold War to illustrate their contention that social rules are not immutable. Agents can change the rules by performing actions that undermine them. In this article, we describe the Cold War as a set of social rules sustained by superpower speech acts. We show that, by altering their behavior, the superpowers undermined the felicity of these rules. In so doing, they progressively dismantled the rules of the Cold War. Our model captures the competing arguments in the ongoing debate about whether the rationalist buildup argument or the constructivist new thinking argument better explains the end of the Cold War. Within the model, we identify the rules that, when made infelicitous by the superpowers, resolves tensions in the Cold War rule system in ways consistent with each argument. We conclude by showing how these competing arguments are reflected in contemporary debates concerning the nature of the global security rules emerging in the post-cold-war world.     

冷战后中印关系研究：一种分析框架

随着中印两国经济的持续快速增长、社会不断进步和政治相对稳定,中国和印度在地区和国际事务中的作用日益突出。一方面,中印“战略合作伙伴关系”的内容正不断得到充实,另一方面,中印关系的发展已具有全球和战略意义。近年来对中印关系的研究正成为国内外学术界的一大热点。本文主要为冷战后中印关系研究提供了一个分析框架,包括研究意义和价值、研究框架和内容、研究重点和创新,从而为相关研究提供一种思路和启发。     

First- and Third-World Newspapers on World Opinion: Imagined Communities in the Cold War and Post-Cold War Eras

This article considers the role of the "tabloid press" in Jordan's post-1989 liberalization process. Most studies of media in society and in processes of political transition have either ignored the role of tabloid media or derided them as examples of what is worst in media functioning. The present article seeks to compensate for this neglect by placing the tabloid press at the center of analyses of the media and democratization. In Jordan, the proliferation of such media after 1989 stands as one of the best indicators of the country's gradual, halting, but nonetheless real liberalization process. Tabloid performance was also perhaps the most prominent point of controversy, contention, and conflict between the Jordanian media and the regime in power. A brief comparative and theoretical analysis considers the role of the "yellow" press in transitions from authoritarianism to democracy worldwide. The article then turns to consider the Jordanian experience from the onset of liberalization in 1989 through to the present.