俄格冲突的根源探析

近来俄格围绕南奥塞梯的激烈冲突绝非仅仅是涉及其双边关系的一个孤立事件,其背后隐藏着诸多复杂因素;格鲁吉亚的"亲西方"政策、俄格在阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯问题上的历史积怨、以美国为首的西方对俄罗斯的战略挤压以及俄美对里海地区能源的争夺乃是俄格冲突的根源所在;此外,俄罗斯不断提升的综合国力也是催生俄格冲突的一个因素.     

普雷维什命题:历史与现实

劳尔·普雷维什 ( 1 90 1～ 1 986)是 2 0世纪拉美历史上“最有影响的经济学家”1,被公认为是“发展中国家的理论代表”2。在他所提出的一系列经济发展理论中 ,影响最大、争议最多的就是“贸易条件恶化论”。这一理论认为 ,发展中国家初级产品的贸易条件存在长期恶化的趋势。因为它是由普雷维什最早提出来的 ,所以也被称为“普雷维什命题”3 。一　“普雷维什命题”的主要内容所谓贸易条件 ,实际上就是一种交换关系 ,是一个国家以出口交换进口的条件。当出口能够交换到更多进口时 ,贸易条件就改善 ;反之 ,贸易条件就恶化。对贸易条件变化的…     

从全球化视角看非洲

非洲由于在国际分工体系中位居底层、经济发展滞后，以及政治稳定性差等等，难以利用后起优势实现赶超。从非洲整体来看，全球化于非洲是弊多利少。冷战后全球化浪潮的冲击，造成了非洲在国际政治经济生活中的日益边缘化。与老殖民主义有所不同的是，20世纪末新一轮的全球化是通过规则、谈判、资本和技术等“文明”与“民主”的手段来瓦解非洲的屏障的，其功效无异于“第二次殖民主义”。认识全球化给非洲带来的弊端和挑战，并不等于认可了萨米尔·阿明“依附论”中的“脱钩”思想。关键是非洲如何回应挑战，最大限度地趋利避害，争取在全球化过程中为自己谋取较为有利的国际环境和国际地位。     

透视中印关系纠葛

中印关系时好时坏 ,其根源在于影响两国关系发展的纠葛没有得到根本消除。目前影响中印关系的焦点是两国边界纠纷问题、西藏问题和中巴之间的关系问题。     

古巴导弹危机新论--关于赫鲁晓夫决策动机及结局的分析

学术界关于赫鲁晓夫在古巴部署导弹的决策动机及结局等问题的研究上 ,存在着多种偏颇的观点。笔者认为 ,苏联的决策动机 ,是以此形成苏美战略核力量方面的均衡 ,从而在此基础上实现苏美合作 ,确保苏联与美国平等的大国地位 ;古巴导弹危机的结局是以苏美的相互妥协而结束的 ,既没有绝对的胜利者 ,也没有彻底的失败者。     

Another look at the intent element for the war crime of terrorism

The modern basis of the war crime of terrorism may be found in the terms of article 51(2) of Additional Protocol I (1977) to the Geneva Conventions of 1949, replicated in article 13(2) of Additional Protocol II. The provision forbids attacks carried out for the ‘primary purpose of spreading terror’ among a civilian population. In view of this provision, the judges of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have pronounced terrorism to be a crime of ‘specific intent’. In an extension of this reasoning, a Trial Chamber of the Special Court for Sierra Leone has recently held that the crimes of enslavement and militarization of children do not qualify as terrorism, because they were not found to have been committed for the ‘primary purpose of spreading terror’. The aim of this paper is to examine the correctness and limits of the proposition that terrorism is a crime of specific intent. In the context of that inquiry, the Rome Statute is examined for what it is able to contribute to the discussion.     

The Tobin Tax: Another lost opportunity?

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has promoted the so-called `Tobin Tax' as a major mechanism for generating a substantial increase in global resources for tackling human-development priorities. Such a levy, on largely speculative and unproductive international transactions, may be capable of generating over US$300 billion per year: several times higher than existing levels of bilateral aid. However, given the muted dialogue at the 1995 World Summit for Social Development, and in order to secure the necessary support of leading developed countries and global financial institutions, it may be inevitable that the Tobin Tax, if adopted, would ultimately serve the interests of the wealthier economies. There is, therefore, an urgent need for the development sector to engage in debate about how, and how much of, such funds would be directed to priority human-development purposes.     

Egypt versus Ethiopia: The Conflict over the Nile Metastasizes

Egypt and Ethiopia continue to oppose one another over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River basin, despite a succession of provisional multilateral agreements. Officials in Cairo insist that Egypt be guaranteed its “historic rights” to two-thirds of the river’s flow, while their counterparts in Addis Ababa demand an “equitable” distribution of water among all of the riparian countries. More important, Sudan’s shift in alignment from Egypt to Ethiopia has injected new tension into the dispute, and the sustained involvement of South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda and Eritrea heightens the likelihood that periodic crises will escalate into armed confrontations. Consequently, existing studies that offer sanguine assessments of the potential for a compromise settlement fail to address the key dynamics that drive the conflict.     

The Chemistry of a Conflict: The Chinese Government and the Falun Gong

This article examines elements shaping the conflict between the Chinese government and the Falun Gong movement. It explores the historical relationship between China's rulers and sects, the qigong boom in contemporary China, the Chinese government's style of conflict management, and the development of the Falun Gong teachings since the group was banned. It discusses the extreme language both sides use to define themselves and their opponent as part of a media-campaign to legitimate their respective causes. It also examines the intensification of the millennial message in the Falun Gong teachings and the potential justification for violence even though the teachings continue to condemn the use of violence. Its concludes with reflections on the future of the Falun Gong and the Chinese government.     

The Role of the Scholar-Practitioner in International Conflict Resolution

Can unofficial, academically based, third-party approaches contribute to the prevention and resolution of international and intercommunal conflicts? The article focuses on one such approach, interactive problem solving, which the author has applied primarily in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. After describing the central tool of the approach, the problem-solving workshop, the article goes on to address the role of interactive problem solving and related approaches to the larger process of conflict resolution. In this context, it discusses the relationship of the microprocess of problem-solving workshops to the macroprocess of international conflict resolution; the relationship between official and unofficial diplomacy; the relationship between practice and scholarship in conflict resolution; the role of the university in the process; and the possibilities for institutionalizing this model of conflict resolution.     

非洲农业危机的根源

近年来，非洲农业发展缓慢，地位下降，处于危机之中。其根源在于非洲国家失误的发展政策，不利的自然条件，落后的农业技术，内战冲突频发，以及发达国家操纵的不合理的国际经济秩序。在新世纪，非洲农业发展的方向应是加强农业的基础地位，建立以粮食生产为中心的多样化格局，大力推广农业生物技术。     

Promoting Democracy after Conflict: The Difficult Choices

This article examines the democratic reconstruction model advocated by western countries for postconflict societies. It finds that the model has not been implemented successfully, in part because of a lack of international political will and financial resources, in part because the model has grown too complex. As the international community learned from successive experiences with postconflict reconstruction, the model grew in sophistication and complexity. While this is good in theory, in practice it widens the gap between the ideal and what can actually be accomplished with limited international resources and weak local governments. Even in Bosnia, where international commitment has been large, this maximalist approach to state reconstruction has met with only limited success. The international community must rethink its approach to postconflict reconstruction and scale it down to something that can realistically be achieved.     

Help or Hindrance: Third Parties in The Indo-Pakistani Conflict

In cases of ethno-nationalist and other kinds of protracted conflict, third party intervention is crucial for settlement to occur, since conflicting actors are too mired in the histories of their grievances to move towards settlement themselves. This article examines five instances of hostility between India and Pakistan over the last five decades; two of these conflicts ended in settlement and the other three in war. The evidence presented in these instances suggests ways in which third party characteristics, strategies, and timing of intervention may influence final outcomes.     

The Blockade on Qatar: Conflict Management Failings

ABSTRACT

Current tensions in the Gulf region highlight the persistence of crises and conflict. A number of states within the area now regularly engage in interventionist actions that challenge previously held norms of sovereignty and non-intervention. Fragmentation characterises what were once considered fairly robust structures of unity and enduring regional organisation. Theoretical norms that presuppose non-intervention are tested by new forms of coercion and interventionism among Gulf actors that exacerbate rather than resolve security dilemmas. In turn, this highlights the inadequacies of normative models of conflict management and resolution, and in particular mediation. These developments are examined in the case of the blockade against Qatar instituted by Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in June 2017.     

Scrolling Around the New Organization: The Potential for Conflict in the On-Line Environment

The technological revolution has created as many challenges as opportunities for managers in today's organizations. Besides wandering around to manage, scrolling around on a computer screen has become common-place. This article reviews four key technology-caused challenges facing managers in the workplace, chiefly as the result of communication via e-mail. Specifically, the author focuses on what research to date informs us about negotiation and conflict resolution in an electronic environment.     

Ideas in Conflict: The Nationalism Literature and the Comparative Study of Civil War

The comparative study of civil war has recently gone through a “structural turn,” towards large-n quantitative studies that explain the variation in the incidence of civil wars in terms of structural factors. The alternatives have been a return to case studies and a constructivist critique that emphasizes the role of ideas in conflict. While there is no a priori reason to reconcile these approaches, it remains a practical task for those who want to understand how a given social situation escalates into civil war. After reviewing the two poles in the debate, we mine the literature on nationalism for insights into this issue.     

The Microfoundations of Diversionary Conflict

Diversionary conflict theorists assert that leaders can become more popular at home by pursuing conflict abroad. At first glance this claim appears counterintuitive in light of the hardship conflict often imposes on ordinary citizens. Relying on social identity theory (SIT), I deduce two hypotheses to help explain why conflict can increase popular support for leaders. First, conflict with an outgroup can make people identify more strongly with their ingroup. Second, stronger ingroup identification can lead to increased support for leaders inside the group. The second part of the article applies these two hypotheses to Russia's seizure of Crimea in early 2014. Attitude surveys show that the Crimea conflict increased national pride among Russians while support for President Vladimir Putin rose dramatically, and they suggest that the two processes were causally linked. These findings support the article's two hypotheses.     

Argentina's Turmoil: The Politics of Informality and the Roots of Economic Meltdown

This article argues that Argentina's current economic crisis cannot be fully understood without an analysis of recent political processes. It defines the politics of informality that have characterised Argentina's democracy-building processes. This de-institutionalisation of politics was perceived as the facilitator of democratic consolidation, state reform and economic restructuring. In practice, the politics of informality contributed to the crisis of 2001. The article begins by analysing the scale of the political and economic crisis from 1999. It is followed by an analysis of the politics of informality implemented by the Raúl Alfonsín and Carlos Menem's governments and then goes on to explain the consequences of informal politics. Finally, it concludes by outlining the main factors that conspire against democracy and economic stability in Argentina.