美国对日本修宪究竟是什么态度？

日本首相安倍晋三自去年年底上任以来把修改日本现行宪法作为优先目标之一，不断发表有关修宪的言论和计划，甚至在今年2月访美时也把他的修宪设想告知了奥巴马，随后他又明确提出了分三步走的修宪“日程表”。7月15日，他在接受长崎国际电视台采访时更直接地说：“我们将修改（宪法）第九条，写明其（自卫队）存在和作用。这才是正确的姿态。”看来，安倍修宪的势头已不可逆转。现在人们关注的是美闰对此究竟持什么态度？国内有人说：“美国绝不会允许日本修改由美国制定的这部宪法”。按逻辑推理，这种判断似乎不无道理。但这是一种主观的猜测。事实完全不是这样。     

菲律宾修宪运动透视

菲律宾修宪之议早在1994年、1995年就已两次出笼,终因社会强烈反弹而胎死腹中经过一段筹划后,1996年再度掀起,一年多来,主张修宪人士三度尝试修宪,其势汹涌,1987年宪法面临严峻挑战。     

安倍政府修宪对亚太安全的影响

修改和平宪法是安倍晋三右倾政治的核心。安倍政府推动修宪,有着长期积累的、复杂的远期背景,即历史、社会、法律根源,这些社会根源长期根植于二战以后的日本社会。近期背景包括社会、国际和安倍右翼政权执政。其中领导者个人因素也起了推波助澜的作用。安倍认为提振经济并非易事,只有树立修宪的旗帜,才能使自己执政时间更长。经过国内外多层博弈之后,安倍顽固地坚持修宪路线。修宪的核心目标是要删除宪法第九条,获得对外交战权,建立国防军,改变战后国际秩序,成为不受任何束缚的、全能的政治、经济和军事大国。为此,安倍政府不断进行舆论准备、政策准备和组织准备。如果修宪成功,日本将拥有国防军、交战权,并施行"积极和平主义",将成为一个强势的日本、危险的日本,在客观效果上将带来亚太地区安全上的某些不确定性,甚至可能引发地区动荡和军备竞赛。但是,在安倍执政期内,很难实现修宪的目标,其成功的概率只有40%。不过,即使安倍政府推动的修宪不能成功,自其执政以来到现在所推动的修宪,也已经给亚太地区安全带来了消极负面的影响,引起了地区国家之间的猜忌和关系紧张,也导致这些国家在心理上加强了对日本的戒备,同时推动了东亚地区实际军备竞赛的出现。     

日本修宪态势及其背景

近来日本加快修改宪法的步伐 ,执政的自民党和在野的民主党纷纷表示将在近两年内制定出新宪法草案 ,并在争夺修宪问题的主导权上展开明争暗斗。修宪问题已成为 2 0 0 4年日本政治的焦点。今后 ,日本各政党及政府如何运作修宪及对“和平宪法”做何种修改将关系到日本国家走向 ,值得关注。一、战后日本谋求修宪的手段现行《日本国宪法》系战后美国在占领日本初期主导制定 ,194 6年 11月公布 ,194 7年 5月实施。宪法第九条规定“日本国民真诚地追求以正义和秩序为基础的国际和平 ,永远放弃以国权发动的战争、武力威胁或使用武力作为解决国际争…     

日本“修宪”、“释宪”的历史与现状

现行《日本国宪法》自1947年生效以来未曾被明文修改,但日本政府为突破宪法第9条限制,已通过发布"政府见解"、制定安保相关法律等形式,根据需要任意解释宪法条文,已实现事实修宪。与此同时,安倍等保守派政治家并未放弃明文修宪的企图,正不断完善相关条件,拟以争议较小的条文为突破口,为最终修改宪法第9条开辟道路。     

集体自卫权——“日美军事同盟”的本质性特征

该文通过对战后日本有关修宪和解禁集体自卫权的争论与斗争的论证过程,厘清了冷战体制下的“畸形儿”日本在美国控制下制定了互相矛盾的宪法、和约以及日美安保条约的历史脉络,并追踪了日本有关修宪和解禁集体自卫权的政府解释内容的变化。在对日美军事同盟形成的路径及本质特征进行梳理和分析的同时,指出安倍政权企图修宪和解禁集体自卫权的原因与后果,并对战后日本第三次政治右倾化以及第三个国家发展战略目标——军事大国进行了分析与论证。     

蒙古国修改宪法的原因及结局分析

蒙古国自1989年底开始受苏联东欧剧变的影响,颁布实施1990年的过渡性宪法。实行多党制、两院制的议会制。即第四部宪法。在此基础上经一年多的酝酿之后于1992年1月13日颁布了现行宪法。新宪法颁布实施近8年之后,于1999年12月24日由在议会中拥有席位的三党修改宪法。蒙古国通过本次修宪削弱了总统、宪法法院甚至议会少数党委员们的权力,扩大和加强议会多数党及其领导的权力,其结局是权力大集中。     

日本修改和平宪法问题的现状及前景探析

日本现行的1947年宪法,因限制军事化和和平主义特色而受到普遍赞誉,其中第九条规定“不保持陆海空军及其他战争力量”、“不承认国家的交战权”,被称为“和平宪法”。和平宪法为战后日本迅速重新崛起奠定了基础,维护了亚洲和平稳定的环境,但却成为日本迈向政治和军事大国的障碍。进入21世纪,日本修宪步伐正大大加快,自民党计划在2005年内提交最终修宪草案。其他政党、社会团体和新闻媒体也纷纷提出修宪计划和提案,开始探讨修宪的具体程序和技术性问题,目前,修宪已进入实际操作阶段。日本修改和平宪法及其影响将事关日本国家未来走向。     

朝鲜修改宪法开启后金正日时代

2009年4B9日，朝鲜举行第12届最高人民会议第一次会议，金正日再次当选为国防委员会委员长，会议增选国防委员会委员至13人，其中金正日的妹夫张成泽格外引人注目。会议宣布对朝鲜社会主义宪法进行了修改和补充，但至今尚未公开其具体内容，这与1998年9月朝鲜修改宪法第二天即公开修宪内容大相径庭。2008年8月金正日被传突发脑出血，身体状况堪忧，接班人问题紧迫，因此，此次朝鲜领导人新老交替之时修改宪法意义重大。     

日本第24届参议院选举与修宪势力的扩张

2016年7月10日,在日本第24届参议院选举中,修宪势力占据了发起修宪动议所需的三分之二以上议席,小党则处于更加严峻的境地。如何评价"安倍经济学"是本届参议院选举的最大争论点,执政党势力在选举竞争中特意回避了修宪问题。受本届参议院选举结果的影响,安倍内阁将在密切关注日本国内修宪政治生态变化的基础上,采取"柔性"的政治运营手法来推进修宪路线。     

脆弱性视角下气候变化与暴力冲突的传导机制探究

气候变化通过直接或间接的方式影响暴力冲突发生的可能性,但气候变化与暴力冲突之间的因果传导机制仍需要进行深入探究。作者从脆弱性的视角出发,探索从气候变化到暴力冲突的传导机制,基于复杂交织的自然因素和社会因素,通过联系的独立性和多重性,分析了气候冲突的三级传导机制,并在此基础上强调了脆弱性在气候变化与暴力冲突复合传导机制中的结构性地位。文章从生态、经济、社会和政治四个方面对脆弱性进行阐述,并分析了其在气候冲突传导机制中的作用。气候变化是暴力冲突的一种外源性触发器,脆弱性作为社会内生性因素在气候冲突风险中发挥一种屏障作用。脆弱性升高将会造成国家对暴力冲突风险的屏障作用减弱,导致气候冲突风险显著上升。     

'The limits of international leadership': The Eisenhower administration, East-West trade and the cold war, 1953-54

This article examines the Eisenhower administration's trade policy towards the Soviet Union in 1953-54. It argues, contrary to previous scholarship on the subject, that the liberalization of East-West trade controls in August 1954 cannot be attributed solely to the presidential leadership of Dwight D. Eisenhower. Instead, whilst Eisenhower played a significant role in changing American embargo policy, it was the Churchill government which provided the impetus required for the revision of the international export control lists. Despite conflict and confrontation over the shape and contents of the new embargo between Washington and London, the two governments forged a compromise in the summer of 1954.     

南海地区安全：打击海盗与反恐合作

南海地区不仅具有重要的战略地位，而且是世界上最繁忙的国际航道之一，其安全正面临着海盗与恐怖分子的威胁。随着国际海事局有关海盗定义的修订，要维护南海地区的安全仅依靠南海周边国家的力量是不够的，特别是马六甲海峡。因此，海峡沿岸国要求海峡使用国共同分摊维护安全的经费负担，并提供有关培训、设备和信息情报等援助。这种情况说明，维护南海地区安全必须由南海周边国家及南海航道使用国共同合作，只有通过密切的国际合作，才能有效地打击海盗与恐怖主义活动，真正地维护南海地区的安全。     

Attempting to Revise the Treaty of Lausanne: Greek Foreign Policy and Italy during the Pangalos Dictatorship, 1925–1926

In June 1925, General Theodoros Pangalos imposed his dictatorship on Greece. During his 14-month rule, he set as one of his basic foreign policy goals the revision of the territorial settlement imposed on Greece and Turkey by the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne. Wanting to secure Eastern Thrace and possibly even part of Western Asia Minor for Greece, Pangalos sought the backing of at least one Great Power with interests in the region, in this case Italy, as its dictator, Benito Mussolini, remained equally hostile and aggressive toward Turkey. Pangalos tried to reach an understanding with Mussolini concerning the possibility of joint Greco–Italian action against Turkey. The first signs of closer co-operation came in early July 1925 when the Italian under-secretary of foreign affairs, Dino Grandi, visited Athens for discussions with Pangalos. However, a more important initiative involved the official visit of two Greek ministers—Loukas Kanakaris-Roufos, the foreign minister, and Anastasios Tavoularis, the transport minister—to Rome in early March 1926. They met with Mussolini who, because of British pressure, now seemed reluctant about Pangalos’ ambitious plans for joint action against Turkey. The Greek leader’s hopes to revise Lausanne ended.     

When Development Is Not Enough: Structural Change,Conflict and Gendered Insecurity

Despite two decades of rapid global economic growth and social modernisation, including increases in gender equity, levels of violence against women remain stubbornly high. Moving beyond conventional liberal views, a growing literature has identified how structural change and conflict associated with economic development can exacerbate women’s physical insecurity. We examine the relationship between development patterns and variation in the Physical Security of Women index—the best available cross-national indicator—to fill the gap in emerging ethnographic, case and survey-based accounts with systematic cross-country assessment. We find that, after controlling for standard explanatory variables, income inequality, urban crowding, corruption, political violence, autocracy and unequal representation of women in politics are associated with more physical insecurity, confirming the relevance of structural change and conflict approaches to development. Correcting the conventional wisdom, high national incomes are associated with greater security for women only if they are well distributed, and the relationship with female labour force participation weakens as women’s work rises. These relationships are robust to the year in which they are measured, and to the introduction of region and time fixed effects. We also demonstrate that gender-based violence has different correlates than generic insecurity.     

安倍再度执政后的中日关系展望

2012年12月安倍晋三再度执政后,手中握有改善中日关系的机会,但在日本政治右倾化抬头背景下,其对华政策仍可能受到日本右翼和鹰派的影响。安倍内阁企图通过加强日美同盟,在中国周边开展所谓"价值观外交",构建针对中国的战略格局,在钓鱼岛问题上迫使中方让步。安倍最大政治目标是修改日本宪法,为日本对外使用军事力量铺路。近期在对中国采取强硬立场的同时,也会谋求缓解紧张关系,防止局势失控。若2013年7月自民党在参议院选举中获胜,很可能推动修改日本宪法。中日关系将进入新的历史阶段,前景不容乐观。2013年是《中日和平友好条约》缔结35周年。中日双方信守条约,妥善处理钓鱼岛争议,对未来的中日关系和东亚和平稳定是至关重要的。     

Change and Continuity in the European Union's Political Conditionality: Aims,Approach, and Priorities

The EU's political conditionality has acquired increasing importance with successive enlargements; this also goes for the period since 2004 compared with that before. The focus here is on change and continuity in conditionality policy with respect to its aims, approach, and priorities. The article presents and applies a three-dimensional analysis concerning the challenge to, the process of, and the management of that policy. Given the need for assessing it in a broad and dynamic context, the discussion revolves around three relationships: between conditionality and post-communist democratization; between conditionality and the enlargement process; and between conditionality and the EU itself in terms of institutional responsibility for enlargement and conditionality matters. This explains how the policy since 2004 has been driven by four factors: more difficult democratization cases from the West Balkans; lessons from the earlier 2004 enlargement involving East–Central Europe; the policy outlook of Commissioner Olli Rehn; and ‘enlargement fatigue’ and stronger pressures from EU actors other than the Commission. As a result, political conditionality has become broader in its scope, much tighter in its procedures, and less easy to control within a less enlargement-friendly environment in the EU and against less certainty about enlargement prospects.     

Conflict Dynamics and Feedback: Explaining Change in Violence against Civilians within Conflicts

Conflicts are complex, dynamic processes wherein the frequency and intensity of violence changes throughout the contest. In this article, we explore the temporal dynamics of two long-term civil wars—DR-Congo and Sudan—to identify systematic and random conditions that lead to changes in civilian targeting. Violence committed by rival political actors, territorial exchange, and the number and addition of violent agents strongly shape the likelihood that civilian targeting events and casualties increase or decrease over time. General and country differences emerge from vector autoregression analysis to suggest that (1) three types of violent agents—rebels, militias, and the government—are locked in spirals of violence where violence against civilians by one actor leads to subsequent violence by another actor; (2) rebels and government forces respond to the other side’s acquisition of contested territory by increasing counterattacks on civilians, specifically in DR-Congo; and (3) increasing numbers of active nonstate agents lead to higher violence rates in the following months. Among these, civilian targeting by rival actors triggers the most follow-on violent events against civilians.