精英互动与缅甸的政治发展:2011年缅甸的政治与外交

2011年缅甸政府与国内外精英的互动有力地推动了缅甸的政治发展。通过与政治反对派的互动,政府修改了政党登记法,赢得了政治反对派的初步信任,为更广范围分享政治权力扫清了障碍。通过与少数民族武装的互动,政府赢得了少数民族武装的信任,与绝大部分少数民族武装签订了和平协议,为更公平地在民族间分享资源创造了可能。通过与外国政要的互动,政府赢得了西方国家的信任,西方开始逐步解除对缅甸的制裁,为缅甸生产和提供更好的公共产品提供了条件。政府叫停密松电站建设可以看做是缅甸政府与国内外精英互动的一个顺理成章的结果。2011年缅甸的精英互动与政治发展表明:即使为结构所限,精英的认知和互动也可以推动一个国家的政治发展。     

印尼爪哇与外岛资源分配的不公:民族关系视角的解读

苏哈托时期印尼的资源在爪哇族与外岛民族之间的分配,主要采取中央与地方财政分割的形式.其分配格局是:爪哇独占鳌头而外岛只分得残羹剩饭,它是主体民族与少数民族政治-文化不平等在经济领域的投影,反过来又深刻地影响着印尼的民族关系.本文将政治-文化与经济利益的纠结,作为探索资源分配与民族关系互动的切入点,并试图循此路径使问题的分析达到一个新的境界.     

Terrorism and guerrilla warfare theory and practice: Al‐Qaeda and Sudan's SPLA

A comparative study of how terrorist organisations differ from each other, looking at case studies of al‐Qaeda and the Sudan People's Liberation Army.     

党内法规与国家法:关联、区别及其关系之协调

党内法规与国家法同属于法的范畴,都是制度理性的产物。二者具有类同性,既相互保障,又相互制约,同时又在制定主体与实施主体、效力来源、适用的对象与领域、规范逻辑以及对公开性的要求方面存在着明显区别。作为我国社会主义法治体系的共同支撑,党内法规与国家法作为社会治理规则而在社会治理方面发挥作用时,难免会因其不同而产生冲突或不协调,而这种不协调显然会对我国全面推进依法治国战略及全面从严治党战略带来负面影响。为此,需要协调二者之间的关系。     

Japan and global environmental leadership

Japan is poised to take on the responsibilities of environmental leadership. The environment is a “new” issue and the assumption by Japan of an activist role will not provoke unease in Asia about Japanese intentions or be viewed in the United States as a challenge to its global hegemony. Japan more than any other country appears to have broken the link between economic growth and ecological degradation. It offers a cognitive model to other nations, especially its East Asian neighbors concerned by the nonsustainability of current growth models. Japan also deploys financial and technological resources that make a leadership bid credible.     

School textbooks and assembling the puzzle of the past in revolutionary Egypt

Saudi Arabia found itself under an unflattering spotlight in the wake of the events of 9/11, perhaps more than any other country in the Middle East. The fact that 15 of the 19 suicide skyjackers were Saudi citizens provoked an avalanche of criticism in the West as well as in some parts of the Islamic and Arab world against Saudi religious beliefs, rulers, social customs, and school curricula. This article traces the Wahhabi Post-9/11 ideological “self-examination” of relationships with non-Wahhabis. Emphasis will be placed on the current Wahhabi perceptions of the fundamental terms of “other” and “otherness” that are most likely to affect relationships between the Wahhabis and other cultures and religious groups. I argue that post-9/11 Wahhabi Islam acknowledges the problematic nature of its traditional perception of the ‘other’ and, therefore, is making significant and unprecedented efforts to reformulate and redefine religious doctrines, such as jihad, tolerance, interfaith dialogue and so forth.     

古代中日对象观比较

中日两国在两千多年的交流过程中,形成了剪不断、理不清的关系与认识。回顾中日两国的交往,中国建立华夷秩序,日本被纳入华夷秩序。在华夷秩序下,两国认识上的错位非常明显,究其原因正是华夷秩序对两国彼此认识的影响,使两国看不到彼此的＂真相＂,两国间的冲突也自然不可避免。梳理古代两国认识上的错位,对于近代中日激烈矛盾冲突可以有一个更好的理解。     

Determinants of Happiness in Japan and the Netherlands: Macro and Micro Analysis and Comparison

It is often said that the Japanese happiness is lower than that of Europeans. However, sufficient discussion has yet to take place with consideration of differences in social forms as a background factor. In this study, therefore, by leveraging comparative international surveys, we empirically study and compare the factors that affect happiness in Japan and in the Netherlands, a country which has a higher happiness level than other European countries, from both macro (country level) and micro (individual level) perspectives.

This paper focuses on life evaluation as happiness. It was confirmed through the results of our macro analysis that social support (i.e., having relatives or friends you can count on to help you when you are in trouble) is the factor that significantly improves the level of life evaluation both in Japan and the Netherlands compared to other countries. In addition, change of the logarithmic value of GDP per capita in Japan is negative and statistically significant, which coincides with the Easterlin Paradox claim that more income does not bring greater happiness. On the other hand, we were unable to confirm the Easterlin Paradox in the Netherlands, in which change of the logarithmic value of GDP per capita is positive, though not statistically significant. Furthermore, our longitudinal data analysis in this paper also revealed that healthy life expectancy and generosity are insignificant, although their significance has been claimed in earlier studies (e.g. Helliwell et al, 2017).

Although our macro analysis found social support is important both for Japanese and Dutch happiness on average, the results of our micro analysis have revealed different views and structure of society; the Netherlands is a welfare society in which the public sector and the citizens support each other, and Japan is a welfare society which is based on support provided by community including families and the local area. In other words, the Netherlands showed greater trust on others in general (general trust) than Japan, and Japan showed greater trust on families (family trust) than the Netherlands, a factor that had an influence on happiness levels of individuals in the respective countries. That is, while the Netherlands’ vision of a welfare society is based on “individuals and the public,” under which the independent citizens take the initiative in supporting each other, Japan’s vision of welfare society is based on “community,” under which families have a duty to support each other. In Japan, where freedom of choice is more limited than in the Netherlands, people who have more freedom of choice were found to be happier.

In order to improve happiness in both countries, we need to strengthen social support based on their respectively unique visions of welfare society rather than resorting to income-boosting economic policies. In doing so, the key for Japan would be whether or not the system can be reformed in such a way as to allow freedom of choice to individuals.     

再论东南亚的民族文化与民族主义

多民族共存具有多文化并存的内在含义,文化上的相互容忍与适应促进民族关系的和谐.在此情况下,民族主义主要表现为民族国家对外抗争强权.另一方面,文化上的相互歧视与排斥导致民族矛盾与冲突.在此情况下,民族主义的矛头转而对内,亦即一国之内各族间的相互排斥.每个民族的文化都有其特性,但民族国家内的各族文化也存在着共性.强调共性同时又承认各自的特性,易于培育出一致对外的聚合型民族主义;过分强调特性而忽略共性,则易于导致内哄内斗的离散型民族主义.在东南亚,民族文化的双重性与民族主义的不同表现形式具有内在的紧密关系.     

东亚文化与出版交流的实践与思考——东亚出版人会议的意义解读

东亚出版人会议紧扣着东亚文化与出版两大主题,从人的交流、书的交流到企划出版的交流这3个层面,既务虚也务实。一方面通过相互间的文化与理念的交流,期望了解彼此邻近却隔膜的现代化的心路历程;另一方面则通过共同出版"东亚人文书100",进行跨越国界的文化事业的交流。不过,中、日、韩3国所推荐的书目依然代表着各自不同的文化诉求,因此,如何通过文化的交流来重构东亚的价值和理念,还需要出版人的进一步努力。     

国家双边关系的定量衡量:突破与局限——评《中外关系鉴览1950-2005:中国与大国关系定量衡量》

本文首先运用衡量的效度和信度两个指标对《中外关系鉴览1950—2005:中国与大国关系定量衡量》(简称《鉴览》)的衡量质量进行了评估,认为《鉴览》所创建的衡量方法与原先的一些事件数据分析(event data analysis)方法相比,具有较高的效度和信度;其次,将《鉴览》一书和传统国际关系史书进行了比较,认为《鉴览》一书不同之处在于对历史事件的分类整理、数量化描述和明确历史事件累积效应的原理和大小;最后,提出了《鉴览》一书在理论上的三个突破是区分了关系分值和事件分值、区分了事件的不同影响力和涵盖了双向事件。而其主要局限在于对历史数据的理论分析不够充分以及定量衡量和定性判断之间存在不契合。     

韩中文化交流现状与展望——以出版业为例

韩中两国自1992年建交以来的20余年间,双方在经贸、教育、互访、国际婚姻、文化以及人力资源等领域的合作交往日益深化。其中,出版业奠定了所有交流领域的文化基础,具有重要的意义。到目前为止,韩中双方的出版业交流主要以纸类书籍为主。如今,随着IT产业的发达,孕育了电子书产生的背景,引起了图书史上的一场革命。要想促进电子书更广泛的交流,必须要加强著作权的保护,提高读者交付阅读费用的认识,普及价格低廉的阅读器,统一电子书的标准发展平台等问题要率先得到考虑与完善。电子书便利的使用途径、互联网简单的传播方式、低廉的购买费用和管理费用、大量传播、多媒体资源的有效利用等优点,可以更加有效地促进韩中两国的文化理解,增进友好关系。因此,电子书是两国文化交流不可或缺的新型载体。     

The Formation of the Queensland Liberal National Party: Origins,Prospects and Implications for Australian Political Systems

In Australia, two-and-a-half party systems are common with the Liberal and National parties, usually needing to collaborate to form governments. In Queensland, the 2008 merger of two of these state parties to create the Liberal National Party (LNP) created instead a two-party system. This review examines the forces for the merger and prospects for the continuation of the LNP, the likelihood of change as a result of the Queensland merger in the remaining two-and-a-half party systems, and how the drivers of this merger compare with those observed in studies of other non-Australian party and electoral systems. Pressures and conditions for a merger similar to those in other, mostly European systems, were evident in the case of the LNP. The particular structure of the pre-merger party competition and relationships was, however, a likely factor in the merger in that two collaborating parties could avoid a contested switch in party seniority. This aspect, unlikely to occur in other Australian party systems, combined with the very limited success of the LNP in gaining and holding government since the merger, does not suggest an imperative for further mergers in other Australian systems.     

Belarusians between East and West

Belarus has a divided identity that reflects its complex history and culture. A mixed-methods investigation incorporating focus groups and national representative surveys conducted over a decade or more suggests that Belarusians themselves are more likely to regard themselves as “European” than their counterparts in Ukraine and Russia, but less likely to do so than in other European countries. There is substantial support for a hypothetical European Union membership, particularly among younger respondents, but there is also strong and widely distributed support for a closer association with the other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Consistently, it is the “multidirectional” foreign policy promoted by the current leadership, which seeks closer relations with East and West at the same time, that finds the greatest support. But a “Slavic choice” is also popular, and much more so than a “Western choice” or isolationism.     

中印构建命运共同体的内涵、困境与可能性

中国和印度同为发展中国家,近年来迅速崛起受到世界关注,但由于战略和认知差异、边界问题、巴基斯坦问题以及域外大国的干扰等因素的影响,两国关系不断下滑。印度借助自身实力的增长和美国"印太战略"实施,不断挑起与邻国的矛盾,特别是加大力度与中国竞争,与其他国家一起制衡中国。在此背景下,中印命运共同体建设将面临巨大的困境和挑战。同时,中印在命运共同体构建过程中也存在认知偏差和"单向构建"的问题。不解决这些问题,中印要构建命运共同体将十分困难。近期,边界问题仍然是双方误解和矛盾加深的"爆发点",也是中印命运共同体构建的难点,这使得中印的博弈还会继续。但由于中印合作对双方、地区乃至世界影响巨大,和平共处、共同发展符合双方的共同利益。从博弈论中的"懦夫博弈"和"重复博弈"视角来看,博弈的策略会影响彼此的行为和偏好,而目前双方有避免热战的共同点,也有加强非传统安全领域的合作空间,未来双方构建命运共同体仍然存在可能性。中印双方应把握机遇,相互调整行为与偏好,不断增加构建命运共同体的正能量,以促进互利共赢、共同发展。     

The Young Turk revolution: comparisons and connections

This article consists of a comparative analysis on the one hand, and an attempt to trace influences and connections, on the other. In the comparative part, it seeks to determine the place of the Ottoman constitutional revolution of July 1908 in the global wave of revolutions in the decade before the First World War. It accepts that there is a high degree of similarity in the liberal constitutionalist ideology of the revolutionary movements, but emphasizes the differences in the social bases of the revolutionary movements. In the part on connections, the influences on the Young Turks' ideology, organisation and revolutionary methodology are traced, as well as the influence they exerted on other revolutionary movements.     

Corruption protection: fractionalization and the corruption of anti-corruption efforts in Iraq after 2003

This paper argues that corruption protection arises because a central feature of Iraq’s institutional environment is its factionalised political system between groups (i.e. sectarian affiliation), and these groups both protect their members from corruption charges launched by other groups, and collude to protect each other from prosecution of corruption. The paper defines corruption protection as ‘action carried out to prevent perpetrators of corruption from being brought to justice’, which is a systematic attempt among corrupt agents seeking to evade accountability for primary corruption activity. The paper has identified two contrasting paths taken by these groups in power in the dynamics of corruption protection: (a) The competitive mode is illustrated by spurious allegations of corruption made by some groups against other groups. Tension between factions results in fake charges being brought against rivals which sometimes lead to wrongful imprisonment of the innocent; (b) collusive between intra-factional groups, corruptly conspiring to hide each other’s corrupt acts thereby constructing a shield which protects the entire elite in Iraq, an issue which I label ‘solidarity in corruption’. The paper will conclude that despite the apparent strength of anti-corruption framework, the reality tells us a very different story; the multiple institutions established to fight corruption and the system of accountability can also constitute a means for corruption protection.     

从大文化的角度看东西方文化在东南亚的冲突与融合

人类社会已经进入大文化时代,各种文化之间需要进一步借鉴、学习和取长补短,共容共进.所有文化的最高境界在本质上是相通的.每一种文化都不是绝对的好或绝对的坏,也不是一成不变的,需要随时代发展斟酌进退.从长远观点看,文化的特殊性终究要融入到文化的普遍性与世界性之中.东西方文化在经过数百年的冲突与融合之后,最终会聚集到世界大文化的屋顶下,把文化的共性、全球性贡献给全人类,贡献给未来.     

Kenya's corruption problem: causes and consequences

The culture of corruption has grown roots in Kenyan society at large and become endemic. Institutions, which were designed for the regulation of the relationships between citizens and the State, are being used instead for the personal enrichment of public officials (politicians and bureaucrats) and other corrupt private agents (individuals, groups, and businesses). Corruption persists in Kenya primarily because there are people in power who benefit from it and the existing governance institutions lack both the will and capacity to stop them from doing so. This work takes a governance and development perspective to analytically examine the causes and consequences of corruption in Kenya. It identifies the key factors (such as absence of strong and effective democratic institutions, centralised power, lack of public accountability, and impunity) and synthesises and analyses available data, indicators, and other information in that regard.     

李穑与《论语》在高丽末期的传播

高丽末期著名学者李穑入主成均馆之后,积极推广朱子学说,研读、讲授《论语》等经典。他还为国王讲授《论语》,并创作了富有特色的《论语》"经筵诗",他的其他诗文也大量引用了《论语》,理学意味很浓厚。由于李穑的这些努力,《论语》的传播随着性理学的发展而呈现出了新的面貌,其在高丽末期政治、文化生活中也发挥了积极的作用。