The radical right in post-communist Europe. Comparative perspectives on legacies and party competition

What role do legacies of past mobilization under late communist rule play in the success of the radical right parties in Eastern Europe? This article considers two major legacies: the legacy of national-accommodative communism and the legacy of patrimonial communism. We investigate the effect of welfare retrenchment on vote support for radical right in 2000s. Social policy reform retrenchment in universalistic welfare systems has a highly incendiary potential for political conflict and radical parties. In countries with a legacy of national accommodative communism, early differentiation of major parties on socio-cultural issues and strategies of social policy compensation kept reform losers at bay, which limited voter success of radical parties. Highly polarized patrimonial regimes, on the contrary, are the most fertile breeding ground for the radical right due to the high levels of inequality and dissatisfaction resulting from a rapid dismantling of the welfare state. The ethnic composition of countries plays an important role in the radical right mobilization as well. Radical right parties benefit from a situation in which the titular majority faces a small ethno-cultural minority.     

The 1989 Revolutions in Retrospect

Reminding us of the failure of academia to predict the East European revolutions, and the challenges presented by the latter to the theories of revolution, the essay claims that in order to understand why the exit from communism comprised so many varied modes, one should take a ‘path-dependence’ diachronic and synchronic comparative perspective. Based on this dual approach and a set of variables, the essay advances a typology of East European revolutions and argues that the issues regarding the type of political regime, the development of civil society and its way of interacting with the state are of paramount importance for comprehending how the ‘negotiated revolutions’ in Central Europe came about. Finally, the significance of the Central European civil society strategy under late communism for the era of globalisation is addressed.     

One step forward,two steps back: women in the post-communist states

The role and status of women in the post-communist countries has been and continues to be varied and full of contradictions. This article discusses the historical, social, economic, and political dynamics affecting the lives of women during the transition from communism to democracy. It argues that democracy, rather than diminishing gender discrimination, has widened the gender gap through declines in women's political representation and increases in women's unemployment and underemployment. Recently, however, the proliferation of women's organizations and the growth of women's studies programs suggests a more optimistic outlook for the future.     

The ghosts of the past: 20 years after the fall of communism in Europe

Twenty years after the fall of communism in Europe, the post-Soviet countries have not achieved a similar stage of democratic development. They have shown to be too diverse and historically too independent to follow one path of consolidation. This volume questions the premises of transitology, homogeneity, and path dependency theories and suggests an insight into the continuities and discontinuities within particular contexts of the given countries (Russia, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland and others). The latter quite often collide with each other and with the Western democratic values, thus putting a concept of a harmonious dialogue or a definite democratic solution for Europe into doubt. This volume challenges one-directional analyses of both communism and capitalism and offers an examination of their inner contrasts and contradictions that are a part of transitions to democracy. The irreconcilable differences between the two systems of ideologies determined by universalisms, such as utilitarianism, liberalism, harmony, and productivity, were derived from the post-Enlightenment heritage of the humanist ideals which today cannot be acknowledged without criticism. To grasp the dynamics of the post-Soviet countries that are developing their own democratic models requires looking into their political struggles, social fissures and complexities within their past and present, rather than observing them from the epistemological standpoint. Such a standpoint is criticised in this volume for seeing those countries as locked in one homogenous totalitarian paradigm. The abstractness of the universalist and utopian concept of transition imposed on concrete social relations is criticised, while the theoriticisation of democratic ideals is related to the political legitimisation.     

Exports,growth and threshold effects in Africa

Abstract

The relationship between openness and growth remains a controversial issue in development economics with many studies focusing on the export–growth relationship. This paper examines whether the relationship between exports and growth found in large cross-section studies also holds in the context of African economies. The paper employs threshold regression techniques to examine whether African countries benefit more from exports when they reach a certain level of development or openness. Our results suggest that there is indeed a positive relationship between exports and growth in Africa. The threshold regression analysis also suggests that it is not necessary for a country to reach a certain level of development or to have an existing export base for this relationship to hold, though it is found that the relationship is stronger for countries that experience higher rates of export growth.     

International Trade as a Limiting Factor in Democratization: an Analysis of Subnational Regions in Post-Communist Russia

The paper investigates the interplay of economic development and democratization in Russian regions. It introduces the new concept of a limiting factor, i.e., a particular resource with a highly localized source that is crucial for economic development. Based on both econometric analysis and detailed case studies, the paper shows that for a large subset of Russian regions, access to trade with the countries of the former Soviet Union constitutes a limiting factor, which on one hand is necessary to sustain economic growth but on the other strengthens the likelihood of a nondemocratic outcome in local regime transition. We also provide some tentative conjectures regarding other instances of a limiting factor that can be found worldwide both currently and historically.     

Managers of Transition—Leadership in Post-Communist Romanian Companies

The article presents the perspectives of managers as part of the Romanian organisational elite on the communist regime and on the transition period, and the values and principles that informed their behaviour as managers in each period. For the first decade after the end of communist rule, managers were drawn mainly from the second level of management of the state-owned enterprises of communist times. As a group they had been selected and formed in late communism. Among the main advantages of this social group were that they demonstrated considerable survival capacity, ideological neutrality and an ability to manoeuvre in a turbulent environment. On the other hand they had to adapt to their new environment drawing on the skills and mentality they had developed under the old regime. The research employed a qualitative method based on the interpretation of conversations between managers and students.     

Inequality,democracy and taxation: Lessons from the post-communist transition

Using data for the period 1989 – 2002, we examine the determinants of income inequality in post-communist economies. We find a strong positive association between equality and tax collection but note that this relationship is significantly stronger under authoritarian regimes than under democracies. We also discover that countries introducing sustainable democratic institutions early are characterised by lower inequality. We also confirm that education fosters equality and find that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.     

国际金融危机背景下对中东欧经济转轨问题的再思考

转轨20年来,中东欧国家已经建立了市场经济体制,经济转轨的任务已经完成。围绕中东欧经济转轨方式的争论,如休克疗法与渐进主义等,在转轨20年后虽然已无现实意义,但仍具有永恒的学术意义。全球化与欧洲化为中东欧国家的赶超创造了有益的条件,但全球经济的波动也给中东欧国家带来了潜在的风险。国际金融危机并不会导致中东欧国家抛弃现有的增长模式,但并不排除中东欧国家对增长模式进行微调。国际金融危机的冲击对"改革疲乏症"敲响了警钟,为中东欧国家进一步加快改革提供了契机。     

Foreign Direct Investment and economic transition: Panacea or pain killer?

This article sets out to make an assessment of the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in transition countries through a review of the empirical record to date. The first part reviews the phases of transition in combination with policy efforts to attract FDI. In the second part, different growth studies across levels of analysis are juxtaposed to better understand the overall growth impact of FDI in transition countries. Since foreign firms have a large direct effect on performance at the level of the firm it is often assumed that they automatically contribute to the economic growth of host countries. The missing link in this discussion is the concept of ‘trickle down’. Superior direct effects in terms of productivity and profitability are hypothesised to trickle down to the host country both as spillovers, or catalysing effects on local firms, and through the expected increase in income that such direct and indirect effects in combination will generate through labour income and taxes. The review shows that such trickle down effects are quite fragile in terms of being demonstrated to exist in transition countries. Combined with widespread usage of tax holidays, subsidies and acquisition discounts, it is not certain that positive direct effects equate with economic growth in these countries.     

A Comparison of Transition Capacities of New EU Countries: Public Administration as a Key Influence in Democratic and Economic Change

In the network of political and public administrative actors the public administration plays a key role. Countries previously influenced by socialism or communism, that joined the European Union in the two most recent accession waves, and are now undergoing strong change, are investigated to determine whether—and to what extent—public administrations influence transition processes to more democracy and market economies. With a regression analysis it is demonstrated that a qualitatively better functioning public administration makes a positive impact on transition, its effectiveness, and sustainability. The regression analysis also offers arguments for the view that public administrations are important actors when it comes to the implementation of EU standards.     

Higher education and economic growth in Africa

This paper uses panel data over the 1960–2000 period, a modified neoclassical growth equation, and a dynamic panel estimator to investigate the effect of higher education human capital on economic growth in African countries. We find that all levels of education human capital, including higher education human capital, have positive and statistically significant effect on the growth rate of per capita income in African counties. Our result differs from those of earlier research that find no significant relationship between higher education human capital and income growth. We estimate the growth elasticity of higher education human capital to be about 0.09, an estimate that is twice as large as the growth impact of physical capital investment. While this is likely to be an overestimate of the growth impact of higher education, it is robust to different specifications and points to the need for African countries to effectively use higher education human capital in growth policies.     

How Stable and Reasonable is Postcommunist Public Opinion? The Case of the Czech Republic

The quality of democracy depends on both politicians and citizens. While most attention has focused on politicians, this paper looks at citizens. There has been some scepticism about whether the postcommunist public is prepared to rule their countries. The legacies of communism and the rigours of the transition may have produced citizens whose opinions are unstable and ill-informed and therefore a poor basis for democratic policy making. This paper tests this proposition by considering the nature of public opinion in the Czech Republic. Its main conclusion is that postcommunist public opinion is more reasonable than conventional wisdom suggests. Opinions on most policies change slowly if at all and when they do change the changes are prompted more by gradual shifts in mores than by political manipulation. This suggests that citizens in the region are prepared to have a significant voice in policy making.     

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Democratic Transition: Learning Processes in the Third and Fourth Waves of Democratization

This study examines trends in macroeconomic conditions during democratic transition, focusing especially on how these trends changed between the third and fourth waves of democratization. We first develop hypotheses postulating that the macroeconomic consequences of democratic transition changed diachronically in the late 1980s and early 1990s because of learning processes. We then test these hypotheses using multiple interrupted time series analysis in a panel of democratizing countries. Our findings support the learning-process hypotheses. Like other recent studies, these findings raise doubts about the value of universalistic theories of democratization. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A25BB114 00003     

International assistance and democracy: Assessing efforts to assist post-communist development

This article surveys political development frameworks for analyzing the post-Communist transition to political democracy. Parallels with postcolonial events in Third World countries should caution against overoptimism about the prospects for mutually reinforcing economic and political development. In general, the study of Third World political development suggest that rapid regime transition with low mass participation is unlikely to result in sustainable democratic politics, especially where severe economic dislocations are present. High rates of participation during regime change may lead to rapid disillusionment with the performance of postrevolutionary government. It is thus argued that states wishing, for various reasons, to assist in smoothing the transition from communism should pay heed to the cautionary experience of Third World development assistance and monitor the political dimensions of the transformation, such as the stability of coalition governments, electoral turnout, ethnonationalism, as well as the orthodox economic indicators like inflation and rates of domestic investment. With respect to international assistance to the former Communist countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the article shows that the capacity of the Group of Twenty Four (G-24) donors to aid economic recovery is well below what is requested, or needed. Despite hosting a donor summit, the United States is taking a far less prominent role in the post-Cold War donor community than was the case in the analogous program for post-World War II recovery. This is having an impact on both volume and coordination of assistance. Finally, a strong, possibly ideological, preference among donors for finding private sector recipients for the bulk of assistance may erode the capacity of the post-Communist states to provide both infrastructure and political stability needed for investor confidence. Those making decisions about levels and modes of Western assistance should look beyond economic indicators of privatization as criteria for continued support and retain, where possible, political development objectives in both financial and project assistance. While we must not assume that the record of supporting democracy in Central and Eastern Europe will prove to be any better than in many Third World regimes, the greater security salience of Eastern Europe’s stability adds urgency to the task of applying political development lessons to the post-Communist experience. Malcolm J. Grieve specializes in political development and international political economy and in his current research is exploring the connections between the two fields with regard to analysis of the post-Communist transition. Recent publications include “Economic Imperialism”, in D. Haglund and M. Hawes, eds.,World Politics: Power, Interdependence and Dependence (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1990) and “Debt and Imperialism: Perspectives on the Debt Crisis,” in S. Riley ed.,The politics of global debt (Macmillan 1993). ...in Central and eastern Europe, we are seeking to demonstrate in practice the idea that free government can mean good and stable government, and that free enterprise can mean economic opportunity for all.U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Lawrence S. Eagleburger, 27 February 1991. There is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to carry through, than to initiate a new order of things.Machiavelli, The Prince     

Interest Rates and Investment in East Asia: An Empirical Evaluation of Various Financial Liberalisation Hypotheses

The article attempts to shed light on the appropriate interest rate policy in the process of economic development. To this end, we examine whether higher interest rates lead to higher investment (and growth) in four East Asian countries. We find that the investment rate went up with real interest rates up to 9 per cent in all four countries but started declining at still higher interest rates in two of the countries. Further, a banking crisis occurred in each of the three countries for which the real interest rates exceeded 9 per cent. This evidence rejects the ‘neo-structuralist’ argument. Nor does it support unbridled financial liberalisation. Yet, it provides only limited support to Stiglitz's case for ‘mild financial repression (real interest rates near zero)’ since reducing real interest rates from say, 6 to 3 or 0 per cent would have reduced investment. The optimum policy seems to be closest to McKinnon's ‘restrained financial liberalisation’ policy, that is, liberalisation with a moderate upper limit (about 6 or 7 per cent) on the real interest rates.     

From ‘Constructing Socialism’ to a ‘Socialist-oriented Market Economy’ in Contemporary Vietnam: A Critique of Ideologies

Abstract

In power, the Vietnamese Communist Party has experienced three ‘moments’ of growth, each with some differences of detail and of meanings: ‘traditional communism’; the transition from a planned to a market economy in the 1980s; and, since 1992, a ‘socialist-oriented market economy’. For each, the article discusses the ideologically defined nature of change; intentionality—‘how growth was to happen’; and the quantitative data used. It suggests that critiques throughout the period have engaged with the intentionality issue: in the first moment, by isolating the socialist relations of production within socialist construction as the cause of difficulties; more recently, by engaging with the lack of effective policy despite contemporary ideology's unreliable belief in policy as key to growth.     

Diasporas and democratization in the post-communist world

If diaspora communities are socialized with democratic values in Western societies, they could be expected to be sympathetic to the democratization of their home countries. However, there is a high degree of variation in their behavior. Contrary to the predominant understanding in the literature that diasporas act in exclusively nationalist ways, this article argues that they do engage with the democratization of their home countries. Various challenges to the sovereignty of their homelands explain whether diasporas involve with procedural or liberal aspects of democratization. Drawing evidence from the activities of the Ukrainian, Serbian, Albanian and Armenian diasporas after the end of communism, I argue that unless diasporas are linked to home countries that enjoy both international legal and domestic sovereignty, they will involve only with procedural aspects of democratization. Diasporas filter international pressure to democratize post-communist societies by utilizing democratic procedures to advance unresolved nationalist goals.     

The world population situation

Population experts appear to be reaching a consensus that there has been a perceptible decline over the last decade in the growth of the world's population. The decline is accounted for by the "new demographic transition" in the less developed countries (LDCs). The decline in fertility rates began in the 1950s in some LDCs and became more widespread during the 1970s. The process has not yet begun in many of the LDCs. During the 1960s it was observed that the declines in birth rates (to levels of 30 of less per 1000) were occurring mostly in small countries. Many of these countries were islands with levels of social and economic development above the developing country average. The key question is whether the recent downward trend in fertility in LDCs will continue, stabilize at the current level, or rise again. A primary concern about the future is that the poorer and less developed countries will end up with an increasing share of the world's population, with the share of the developed countries declining from 34% to 22% over the 1950-2000 period. Considerable differential exists in demographic growth patterns among various regions. The 12 largest LDCs (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey) contain 55% of the current world population, and the fertility decline of these nations is expected to have the maximum impact. 7 of these countries have had fertility declines of 14-35%. The force of the "population momentum" must also be considered. Most developing country populations have a young age distribution with considerable potential for population growth even after the fertility level reaches a replacement level and the net reproduction rate equals 1.     

‘Red Mobs’, ‘Yuppies’, ‘Lamb Heads’ and Others: Contacts,Informal Networks and Politics in the Czech Republic,Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania

This article addresses the use of contacts and informal networks in the political sphere in post-communist states in East Central and South East Europe. It tests two major hypotheses: (i) informality is functional and mainly a result of transition; and (ii) informality is embedded in the national culture and/or a leftover from communism. These hypotheses are tested on findings from 360 in-depth elite interviews. The article concludes that although informality is largely a response to problems and opportunities caused by transition, the manner in which it is expressed, to quite some extent, reflects the national culture and communist experience.