Persistence and change in Soviet and Russian relations with Afghanistan

This paper examines persistence and change in the Soviet Union's and then Russia's relations with Afghanistan with respect to development and security. First, a detailed analysis of the promise and reality of Soviet development assistance reveals conceptual shortcomings in their attempt to induce economic development in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union's heritage is then revealed in order to understand Russia's current perception of post-Taliban Afghanistan as well as Russia's emerging interests and commitment to Afghanistan's economic development. This paper argues that Russia will most likely replicate standard industrialization development approaches in contributing to Afghanistan's development. Therefore, Russia will probably run into problems similar to those that led to the failure of the Soviet modernization project, which consisted of large-scale development projects that were inappropriate to the country's institutions and the lives of most Afghans. It is questionable whether such reiteration will induce economic development now, in the complex setting of a fragmented and fragile state with a multitude of external players looking out for their own interests.     

AFGHANISTAN: DISCERNING CHINA’S WESTWARD MARCH

This article discerns the shifts in China's engagement with its Western neighbour, Afghanistan. Beijing's approach has gradually shifted from dis-interest to a careful re-calibration of strategy indicating Afghanistan's growing eminence in its strategic calculus. This transposition – dating back to the 1980's – it is argued has been accentuated as the ‘West’ weans itself away from the Afghan theatre. This article demonstrates that Beijing's chequered history of engagement with Kabul has been historically underpinned by its engagement with a plethora of actors identified with ‘political Islam’ who in turn are patronized by its allies in Rawalpindi. Its deepening footprint in contemporary Afghanistan while continuing to be coloured by the prism of Rawalpindi, is informed by a growing sense of unease regarding the perceived adverse imprint that developments across China's Western borders are likely to leave on its domestic security and growing economic interests in the region.     

Electoral Systems in a Divided Society: The Case of Afghanistan

Electoral systems can be powerful instruments for shaping the content and practice of politics in divided societies, such as Afghanistan; and their design needs to be closely linked to context. This paper explores the suitability of Afghanistan's electoral mechanisms in light of the nation's political system, social divisions, and the process, which led to their adoption. There is no perfect electoral system; and the winners of the country's first-ever presidential election and the subsequent assembly elections face the formidable challenge of transforming Afghanistan from a war torn fiefdom into a nation. Hamid Karzai's victory and Afghanistan's improved, although fragile, security environment appear to represent an important step toward democracy. Yet, elections and electoral mechanisms are a necessary but insufficient means to the introduction and endurance of constitutional democratic government. The legitimacy of Afghanistan's new democratic institutions will rest on the government's progress in producing results, such as disarming the private militias of powerful commanders, some of whom represent sizeable ethnic minorities, and curbing the burgeoning poppy cultivation. An electoral system is but one piece, significant but not the linchpin, of the schema of Afghan political dynamics.     

IMPERIAL DESIGNS

For a very short period after the attacks on 9/11, as the United States bombarded Taliban positions and the alleged training camps of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida organization, Afghanistan was center stage. Then, as the mundane mopping up, the political haggling, and the international community's efforts to manage the postwar mess took over, the spotlight turned to Iraq. Yet even while Afghan landscapes, politics, and economic and social practices were the focus of the world's attention, the country's history and its place in Central Asia and in the wider realm of Asian and global geopolitics were little covered by the media. This essay outlines how Afghanistan has figured in the imperial designs of regional and international powers for more than two thousand years. From the Mongol invasions of the “civilized” world in the thirteenth century to the U.S. intervention just after the turn of the second millennium CE., the “deep” political history of Afghanistan is described with a view to “locating” the country in a wider political-economic context. Afghanistan's relationship to the great regional empires of Persia, India, and China in the late medieval and early modern periods is discussed, as is its role in “the Great Game” of imperial politics between Russia and British India during the nineteenth century. The regional impact of the Russian Revolution and of efforts to consolidate the USSR are described, as is the rising nationalism and Islamism of the peoples of the region during the final years of the Soviet Union. The Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the longer term implications of U.S. support for the mujahiddin – support that ironically contributed to the movement that gave rise to al-Qaida -- are analyzed as the final episodes before 9/11 and the recent dramatic U.S. military and political intervention.     

The Central Asian muftiate in occupied Afghanistan, 1979–87

Known by the Russian acronym SADUM, the muftiate responsible for overseeing mosques in the five Soviet Central Asian republics conducted pro-Soviet public diplomacy in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan after the invasion of December 1979. SADUM's engagement with pro-Soviet ulama in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan marks a departure from the character of its extensive propaganda and relationship-building activities elsewhere in the Muslim and developing worlds. The Central Asian Islamic scholars staffing SADUM sought to assist the Soviet Party-state in establishing and consolidating a cadre of Afghan ulama who could achieve legitimacy in the eyes of Afghanistan's overwhelmingly Muslim population while maintaining political support for the Communist-oriented People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan.     

UZBEKISTAN AND THE UNITED STATES: INTERESTS AND AVENUES FOR COOPERATION

Uzbekistan has recently initiated a series of reforms in the wake of (former) President Islam Karimov's death in 2016. To what extent and why does Tashkent seek to liberalize? Concurrently, the United States - which curtailed ties with the Uzbekistani government in the aftermath of the 2005 Andijan massacre - has expressed renewed interest. What do Washington and Tashkent seek to gain by improving relations? This article posits that while the United States aspires to bolster regional support for the War in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is mainly interested in consolidating a new regime and balancing against nearby Great Powers. As such, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's reformist drive should not be construed as a categorical embrace of good governance but a means to reestablish Uzbekistan's geopolitical footing after more than a decade of isolation. Based upon this assessment, both sides can work to foster avenues for cooperation, while the United States encourages Uzbekistan to liberalize at its own pace.     

PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN

The author identifies three key factors: the resurgence of the Taliban, the leadership of President Karzai and the regional context. The war in Iraq was a costly distraction and it was a mistake to focus nation-building on elections rather than on the strengthening of proper institutions. Economic development, especially agriculture, has not received sufficient attention, with the result that drug production has increased. But there is an increasing recognition that there needs to be some form of conversation with the Taliban. They are now a more sophisticated military organisation, but still an extremely unsophisticated social and political entity. They do not have the answers to Afghanistan's problems. There are many other groups with a stake in the future of the country so any comprehensive negotiation will be very complicated. But it is a positive element that Afghanistan is a tribal society with an enormous capacity for forgiveness.     

Coming to terms with neopatrimonialism: Soviet and American nation-building projects in Afghanistan

The author examines how patrimonial forms of domination, as conceived in a Weberian sense, came to pervade the formal bureaucratic apparatuses developed under both Soviet Marxist–Leninist (from the late 1970s) and American-coalition liberal designs (since 2001), creating hybrid states defined by neopatrimonialism. Drawing lessons from the survival and eventual collapse of the Najibullah regime following the 1989 withdrawal of Soviet forces, the article finds that the continued extension of aid and arms, and not the presence of foreign military forces, proved most effectual in sustaining the Afghan leader's patronage-based grip on power. Arguing that the contemporary regime of Hamid Karzai has likewise adopted a neopatrimonial-type rule, these findings have clear implications for current American policy in Afghanistan. America, Afghanistan's ultimate patron, can better ensure stability in the region by extending aid to Karzai than by continuing a large and costly military occupation of the region.     

The inverted cycle: Kabul and the strongmen's competition for control over Kandahar, 2001–2006

Afghan tribes and local communities have been exposed to foreign patronage since at least the 19th century, but the scale of patronage relative to Afghanistan's internal economy increased dramatically after the late 1970s. Inevitably, this had a major impact on Afghanistan's own internal dynamics and on the mechanisms of political legitimisation. This article focuses on the province of Kandahar, which occupies a privileged space in Afghan politics and history, having given origin to almost all of the country's ruling elites. It deals with three groups of tribal strongmen, who tried to use tribally based patronage systems to stake a claim to local power.     

从“最低限度介入”到“有条件积极介入”:论中国对阿富汗政策的调整

阿富汗素有"帝国坟墓"之称,不少学者认为中国应尽量避免过多卷入阿富汗问题,尤其是安全事务方面。然而,中国现阶段采取的"最低限度介入"也不能帮助解决阿富汗问题,有必要调整为"有条件积极介入",即:以不单边军事介入、不干涉阿富汗内政和尊重阿富汗人的意愿为原则。在地区安全方面,中国应积极构建中美俄印巴大国安全合作机制,发动五国力量共同提供区域公共安全产品;在外交方面,中国应坚持以双边调解和多边斡旋为主,借中巴、中伊(朗)良好的双边关系以及中国在阿富汗问题上独特地位多方协调,形成稳定有效的双边谈判机制和多边协调机制,并将阿富汗纳入上合组织;在经济方面,中国应依托"一带一路"倡议、中巴经济走廊等机制加大对阿经济援助促进阿富汗经济可持续发展,切实提升阿富汗人民的生活水平;在社会与文化方面,中国可为阿富汗提供可供借鉴的社会管理模式和改革经验,致力于促进中阿两国的文化交流和民心相通,使两国的友谊深入民间;同时,始终保证积极介入的底线所在,以便践行周边外交优先理念,展示负责任大国形象,防范"金德尔伯格陷阱"。     

South Korean Environmental Foreign Policy

Korea's environmental foreign policy has developed in a dual-track fashion. In global environmental negotiations, Korea emphasizes environmental preservation but implementation patterns clearly prioritize its own economic interests. When it comes to regional environmental cooperation in Northeast Asia, however, Korea has often acted in the interest of the environment as the country has taken a leading role in promoting and developing environmental cooperation. It is an interesting question how Korea, a middle power in the region that acts on its own economic interests in global environmental negotiations, has taken a leading role in regional environmental cooperation. Analysis suggests that Korea's leading role in regional environmental cooperation results from its regional geopolitical situation, as well as its diplomatic efforts. Besides, Korea's vital environmental, political, and economic interests related to regional cooperation further motivate the country to take an active stance as well.     

The Role of Elections in the Peace-Building and Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Reconstruction of a failed state is possible by focusing on building up three pillars closely interlinked to each other: political process, civil order through security reform and reconstruction. Political process will provide a foundation for the other two. Civil order through security reform will allow the political process to proceed and reconstruction will enhance the people's confidence in the future. In Afghanistan, the political roadmap has been agreed upon in Bonn. Drawing upon traditional wisdom, the process has now come to the final stage, that is, the national-assembly and local elections. Prior to that, the presidential election was staged reasonably smoothly, against a tremendous number of difficulties, among them the terrorists' threat to the people not to vote. The main factor in the success of the presidential election was the people's participation through voting, thus defying the threat of terrorists. The tasks ahead towards peace and prosperity in Afghanistan are still tremendous and complex. It is, however, not an impossible task if the Afghan people and the international community are committed to working together henceforward, too.     

Analysing the new Taliban Code of Conduct (Layeha): an assessment of changing perspectives and strategies of the Afghan Taliban

Periodically, Afghanistan's Taliban leadership formally issues Layeha or ‘codes of conduct’ for their fighters and supporters. Layeha offer important insights into the Afghan Taliban's objectives, strategies and the psyche/perspective of Taliban leadership. This article presents an analysis of the Taliban's code of conduct and examines what Layeha tell us about Taliban objectives, strategy and organization. Such information would seem particularly important as the United States as well as its coalition allies assess their Afghan operational strategy as well as exit strategy from Afghanistan. This analysis of the Layeha suggests that the Taliban remain most concerned with: chain of command principles preventing the fragmentation of the various Taliban networks; obtaining and maintaining public support by winning ‘hearts and minds’ of local residents; ensuring enough fighters remain engaged in combat; and galvanizing the perception that the Taliban represent a capable, desirable and fair alternative to the current Afghan political establishment.     

Taliban 2.0 and China's Counterterrorism Diplomacy in Afghanistan

The US withdrawal that left the Taliban in control of Afghanistan has created a security dilemma for China. Beijing considers its Uyghur population to be a terror threat, and it believes the Taliban are allowing the group to use Afghanistan as a refuge from which to plan attacks and transit into Central Asian neighbors. This article analyzes both the historical record and recent moves by China to explain Beijing's strategy of engaging with the Taliban and developing the Afghan economy. The study indicates that the approach has some potential benefits if, as the Chinese assume, economic growth yields stability, good governance, and a cohesive state that can combat terror groups. However, the article demonstrates that Afghan history, the Taliban's ideology, and the vicious circle of instability, economic stagnation, and further chaos are likely to subvert China's goals.     

Afghanistan in the Great War

The period of the Great War in Afghanistan was one of the most transformational periods of her entire history. Less than a year after the end of the Great War, both Afghanistan and her relations with the rest of the world had changed forever. The article covers Afghanistan and the outbreak of war, the Niedermayer-Hentig mission from Germany, pressure on the frontier and at court, and the aftermath of the Assassination of Amir Habibullah. At Kabul, the emergence of a ‘War Party’, which favoured the declaration of war on India on the side of the Central Powers, caused difficulties for Habibullah's attempt to remain neutral. Although the War Party was to have some support from the Niedermayer-Hentig Mission to Kabul, it was never strong enough to act until the Great War itself was over. On the other side of the frontier, the tribes were expecting to be called to fight at any moment. Keen to raid into the plains, they initially moved too early and were rebuffed but low-level tribal activity took place all over the frontier, though not at the intensity seen in previous large uprisings. At the same time, the Indian Army was taking out the best troops to send to Europe and other fronts, leaving a comparatively small force to protect the frontier. Large scale response to tribal raiding was not possible but the Indian Army was able to deploy aeroplanes, artillery and machine guns as force multipliers to help make up for the lack of fighting men. The cumulative experience was one of change which needed to be understood and accommodated in short order. Men like Sir Denys Bray of the Foreign Department and Mahmud Tarzi and Abdul Quddus Khan in Kabul were able to do this and, in so doing, facilitated Afghanistan's emergence to independence and nationhood.     

SADC and the GCC: Shared regional challenges and potential links

This article assesses the prospects for a clearly articulated economic diplomacy approach in South Africa's foreign policy. It argues that while South Africa's foreign policy has been to a considerable extent normatively grounded, it has failed to develop a coherent economic diplomacy that is based on focused and distinctly expressed priorities. This is a crucial gap that limits the country's ability to respond to regional and global changes, in particular those posed by emerging powers. The article identifies a number of gaps in South Africa's foreign policy approach and highlights its oblivion to global developments and geopolitical dynamics in the African continent. It sets out possible policy outlines for developing a clearer and stronger economic diplomacy. The building blocks for such an approach include the identification of strategic foreign policy priorities; greater institutional co-operation among agencies dealing with economic and foreign policy development; synergies between corporate strategies and government's foreign policy objectives; and the need for South Africa to develop a stronger leadership ambition in the African continent, both to contribute to Africa's development and to pursue its own economic interests. This ambition will require awareness of South Africa's own limitations, thus focusing the better part of its foreign policy on a limited set of countries that match strategic priorities.     

African modernities and the critical reappropriation of indigenous knowledges: Towards a polycentric global epistemology

ABSTRACT

While the African Union's New Partnership for Africa's Development (AU/NEPAD) strives for both plurilateralism and regionalism, there are ideological and practical conditions that challenge the feasibility of a fully fledged regional integration institution in Africa. This article examines the AU/NEPAD in relation to Africa's ideological back-loading, while it explores how the programme reconciles Western-dominated economic plurilateralism with Africa's developmental regionalism. It highlights the ideological changes that helped with the modernisation of Western countries and how these developments become a challenge to Africa's economic development efforts. Africa has always been an ideological back-loader and a delayed integrator into global interdependence. During the mid-20^th century, at the time Western countries (in particular Western European countries) were adopting regionalism, Africa was engaged in the same phenomenon for political and economic independence. While the economic crisis of the mid-20^th century following the Second World War (WW2) enabled the industrialised countries to adopt embedded liberalism for socioeconomic development, at decolonisation Africa sought to espouse what turned out to be the dependency paradigm as the economic development strategy for Africa. In the 21st century, developed regions are transcending regionalism and gearing towards plurilateralism while most African leaders remain fixated in traditional regional integration on the continent. As the neoliberal ideology dominates the contemporary international political economy of the 21^st century, albeit questionably, Africa's politico-socioeconomic realities are also premised on the same embedded liberalism. However, economic plurilateralism by industrialised countries with Africa challenges efforts towards regional integration on the continent. It would seem that the AU/NEPAD provides a viable compromise between developmental regionalism and economic plurilateralism on the continent.     

SIDESTEPPING A QUAGMIRE: RUSSIA,SYRIA, AND THE LESSONS OF THE SOVIET-AFGHAN WAR

Russia's military intervention in Syria (2015-present) has ensured the Assad regime's survival to date. Why though has Russia succeeded in achieving its objective? This article provides an analysis of Russia's involvement in the Syrian civil war in comparison to the Soviet Union's military debacle in Afghanistan (1979-89). Accordingly, by avoiding the USSR's mistakes in Afghanistan, this article posits that Russia has not become entangled in a protracted conflict in Syria. In Syria, Russia has militarily intervened to buttress the Assad regime, not to reorganize the host government's leadership and assume control over the war effort. Meanwhile, Syrian opposition forces lack concerted international support and Russia has allies that are assisting the embattled Syrian government. Lastly, Russia intends to ‘freeze’ the Syrian civil war in place by (i) pressuring opposition forces to submit and other countries to re-embrace Damascus in a diplomatic forum, (ii) endorsing Syria's claim to sovereignty, and (iii) relying upon a small military presence to deter others from destabilizing Assad's rule.     

Many Voices,One Ambition: Local Government,Post-War Reconstruction and Northern Development in Australia

Established in 1944, the North Queensland Local Government Association made an impact on post-war reconstruction and northern development in Australia. The association modernised infrastructure and improved social conditions in Queensland's north, as well as launching an influential publicity campaign to promote a massive northern development scheme. In an era when federal proposals for developing Australia's northern regions often struggled to make a convincing case for Commonwealth investment, these were significant contributions to nation-building. Putting substance before parochialism, the association fostered cooperation among municipal authorities and patiently lobbied the Queensland government. But some members complained that their region was part of a “neglected north” and called for a more assertive campaign. By the late 1950s, having developed regional infrastructure, grown in confidence, and looking for new challenges, the association shifted its lobbying to target the Commonwealth government. The change led to the “People the North” publicity campaign, which influenced federal northern development policy. This article analyses the campaigns led by the North Queensland Local Government Association in the twenty years after 1944. It illuminates a neglected part of Australia's political history: the contribution of regional political voices from Australia's north to nation-building projects such as post-war reconstruction and northern development.     

Panama's Special Economic Zones: Balancing Growth and Development

The growth of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in the Global South has been widespread and well documented. This article provides a comparative analysis of two SEZs in Panama that defy conventional export‐processing strategies by focussing on re‐exports and regional headquartering operations, which are relatively capital‐intensive rather than labour‐intensive. I argue that while this may be a sound economic growth strategy at the national scale, it must be complemented with directed, local strategies to address the country's chronic social development issues, which are underscored by centuries of institutional exclusion.