Hybrid regimes and the challenges of deepening and sustaining democracy in developing countries1

South Africa's history of political domination during apartheid and the tendency of its companies to dominate business development on the continent may undermine the country's aim of being an African powerhouse due to resentment in other African countries. The article argues that South Africa's global ambitions can only be achieved if it is a leader on its own continent.     

Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting for Incumbents under Democratic Backsliding: The Case of Honduras's Bono 10,000

As democracies worldwide have reverted to competitive authoritarian regimes or full dictatorships, some autocrats have used clientelist policies to strengthen their positions of power. We contend that autocrats can weaponise conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to shore up electoral support under democratic backsliding. In this vein, we analyse the impact of Honduras's Bono 10,000, a discretionary CCT, on the electoral support for the incumbent National Party and opposition blocs between 2013 and 2017, an era marked by the erosion of democracy. Using two survey waves from the AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), we show how the CCT boosted the electoral support for the National Party as democracy unravelled. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on how autocrats rely on carrots – not just sticks – to consolidate power.     

Brexit in its Worldwide Aspect: An Opportunity to be Grasped

Abstract

The article looks at the implications of Brexit for Britain and its place in the world. It considers how effective Britain can be in utilising its diplomacy, its trade links, and the application of soft power to secure its interests post-Brexit. The article concludes with an assessment of the possible role of the Commonwealth in assisting Britain going forward. However, in order for positive outcomes to be achieved both in regard to the Commonwealth and Brexit more generally, Britain must persuade its international partners of the merits of the new forms of cooperation being suggested, but also for the people of Britain to shape proactively the future direction of the country.     

Ethno-Political Effects of Suburbanization in the Vilnius Urban Region: An Analysis of Voting Behavior

We use electoral data to analyze the ethno-political consequences that may arise from the fact that the region surrounding the city of Vilnius is dominated by residents with a Polish identity, while those who move to the suburbs are mainly ethnic Lithuanians. In the suburban ring we found increasing voting turnout, a decreasing share of votes for the Polish party, and an increase of the absolute number of votes for this party. The changing electoral behavior might be an indicator of growing ethno-political tensions and the zones of the most intense changes identify areas of potential social tensions between ethnic groups.     

The Impact of Postal Voting on Participation: Evidence for Switzerland

Many countries are forging ahead with convenient balloting methods, in particular electronic and postal voting, in order to re‐engage voters. In this paper, we test whether the cost reductions through postal voting increase turnout. The empirical analysis is based on a newly collected data set on the introduction of postal voting in Swiss cantons. We take advantage of the unique fact that voting by mail was introduced at different times across cantons. This allows identifying the impact of postal voting on turnout, independent of time, issue and canton‐specific effects. The estimated average effect on turnout is roughly 4.1 percentage points for an average turnout of 43 percent between 1970 and 2005.     

Institutional Grievances and Right-Wing Extremism: Voting for Golden Dawn in Greece

This article examines the effect of institutional grievances on extreme right voting by using an original survey to analyse voter support for the Greek Golden Dawn (GD). The article first examines various theories of extreme-right voting and then develops the concept of institutional grievances. Using structural equation modeling, it shows that that the strongest correlates of GD voting are those capturing institutional grievances. Economic grievances have a limited and cultural grievances a moderate effect on GD voting. The article compares the findings with those of the broader literature on extreme-right voting. It concludes with some suggestions on how to link the findings with broader developments in Europe.     

Local democracy in a hybrid state: pluralism and protest in Volzhskiy,Russia

The standard narrative of Russia's “authoritarian backsliding” fails to grapple with the tremendous variation in subnational politics that emerged over the past two decades. This article offers a case study of the industrial city of Volzhskiy, which, although once a stalwart supporter of the Communist Party (KPRF), has evolved into a highly pluralistic system with democratic municipal institutions. Drawing upon analysis of local publications, protest data, and interviews with local politicians, this article traces the interplay of formal institutions and informal political processes in Volzhskiy's local-level transition to democracy. Volzhskiy's pluralism and local democratic outcome can largely be explained by (1) the emergence of a more diverse set of economic and political interests and constituencies, and (2) a KPRF organization that was strong and provided robust competition that created the conditions for cooperation among the competitors to form fair and open local political institutions, which fostered the city's pluralism.     

A Third Term for a Popular Chancellor: An Analysis of Voting Behaviour in the 2013 German Federal Election

The 2013 federal election led to a considerable change in the German party system. Yet Chancellor Merkel secured a third term, once again, as chancellor of a grand coalition. This analysis shows that Angela Merkel was much more popular than her SPD challenger, Peer Steinbrück. Moreover, she was perceived as somewhat more representative of the values and policies of the party she stood for than her competitor. What is more, the candidates' perceived representativeness conditioned the impact of candidate preferences on vote choice in complex ways. As a result, support for Angela Merkel was likely to translate into votes for the CDU/CSU, whereas support for Peer Steinbrück did not easily earn SPD votes. The article thus concludes that, in contrast to her challenger, Angela Merkel was an electoral asset for her party. The CDU/CSU's impressive result in the 2013 federal outcome can thus be interpreted, to some extent, as reflecting its leader's popularity.     

Exploring the link between trust and political participation in a divided society: evidence from South Africa

In empirical research political scientists have found that individuals with higher levels of trust participate more frequently in politics. But how does this link manifest in deeply divided societies? Examining South Africa 10 years after transitioning to democracy, this paper argues that South Africans’ attitudes towards ethnic others shape their decision to participate in political activities. Drawing upon scholarship on the micro-foundations of trust and participation and using Afrobarometer survey data from over 2000 respondents across South Africa in 2005, I find that South Africans who have been more trusting of non-coethnics have participated more frequently in a broad range of political activities.     

Voting for Movement Parties in Southern Europe: The Role of Protest and Digital Information

In recent years ‘movement parties’ such as Syriza in Greece, the Movimento 5 Stelle in Italy, Podemos in Spain and—to a lesser extent—Bloco de Esquerda in Portugal shook national party systems, breaking the consolidated dynamics of political competition. Despite growing interest in movement parties, there has been scant attention to the role of citizens adopting unconventional forms of action and using digital media in accounting for their electoral performance. To fill this gap, four original internet-based post-electoral surveys are employed showing that protesters and digital media users are more likely to vote for these parties, despite important country differences.     

Searching for Civilian Supremacy: The Concertación Governments and the Military in Chile

This article explores the nature and evolution of government-military relations in Chile since democratic restoration in 1990. Its highlights both the attempts by the Concertación governments to reinstate civilian control on the armed forces, as well as the mechanisms used by the military establishment to resist it. Special attention is given to two particular actors of the Chilean democratic transition who have played a critical role in the evolution of government-military relations in the post-authoritarian period: the civilian Right and the Judiciary. As this article aims to show, the strength of the Chilean right has constantly represented a formidable barrier for the Concertación governments in attempts to introduce the legal reforms required to re-establish civilian supremacy over the military. Furthermore, legal decisions adopted by the Chilean judiciary on human rights-related cases have also played a crucial role in the evolution of government-military relations during the past decade.     

Religion,ethnicity and citizenship: demands for territorial self-determination in southern Kaduna,Nigeria

This article analyses the ‘politics of scale’ of how identity is linked to territory in the quest for self-determination by actors on the Christian side of the ethno-religious conflict in Kaduna State, Nigeria. Ethnic and political relations are framed with reference to scale, such as ‘the local’ and ‘the regional’, in ways that support claims for territorial control on an ethnic and religious basis. The experience of lack of access to the state is seen to be grounded in community identities. Furthermore, the state relates to citizens through religious and neo-customary authorities as a way to localise authority. This is connected to an idea that neo-customary institutions represent ‘the local’. It is argued in this article that these institutions are just as entangled in various constructions of scale as the state.     

Big dreams and small steps: comparative perspectives on the social movement struggle for democracy in Serbia and North Macedonia

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a comparative analysis of social movements’ characteristics and capacities to struggle against illiberal tendencies and incite political change in Serbia and North Macedonia. First, we discuss the illiberal elements of political regimes in the countries in question, Serbia and North Macedonia. Then, we provide a comprehensive overview of progressive social movements in the two countries, formed and organized as a response to different authoritarian and non-democratic tendencies. Finally, we point to some differences in their organizing, coalition-forging and issue-defining principles, which, we believe, may help to explain the relative success of social movements in North Macedonia in producing relevant political outcomes, compared to the weak political impact of social movements in Serbia. Empirical data were collected during the summer of 2018 through in-depth interviews with members of social movements in North Macedonia and Serbia.     

Ethnic diversity and development in Kenya: limitations of ethnicity as a category of analysis

This paper challenges the relevance of ethnic diversity in explaining the development impasse in Africa, using Kenya as a case study and arguing that the neopatrimonial and ethnic diversity theses are contradictory as explanatory variables of Africa's development crisis. The former speaks to homogeneity while the latter implies heterogeneity in the public policy process. This paper singles out the ethnic diversity thesis as the weaker of the two, arguing that ethnic groups lack a collective ethnic agenda that can be flagged as consequential for the political economy of the polity. Ethnic group intervention in the political arena is not determined by innate ethnic characteristics: it is due to the tendency for certain actors in the body politic to exploit institutional failure. With proper institutions, the assumed burden of ethnicity in African development would naturally evaporate. Focusing on supposedly ethnic problems is the wrong target.     

Gender and ethnicity in the Soviet Muslim peripheries: a feminist postcolonial geography of women’s work in the Tajik SSR (1950–1991)

ABSTRACT

This article explores the articulation and experience of Soviet gendered ideology regarding work in the Tajik SSR, one of the Muslim Soviet peripheries, during the post-war period ending with Perestroika. Central Asian women’s work was used for economic purposes, as well as being a key driver for fulfilling the ideological objective of emancipating Central Asian women from religion and tradition. Through a feminist postcolonial geography approach, attentive to questions of discourse and material lived experiences, this article explores the ways in which gender and ethnicity were co-produced by Soviet ideology. Analysis of scientific publications produced by Tajikistani female researchers, and of women’s magazines from the 1950s, is contrasted with ethnographic data on workers from various collective farms and semi-urban places, including ‘work heroines’ (peshqadam). Our findings illustrate the hybrid nature of the Soviet regime, advancing theoretical debates on the use of postcolonial theory in Soviet Central Asia.     

Crisis in the Philippines Left: Implications for the Asia Pacific

The struggles of poor communities to negotiate development processes have been documented increasingly in recent years. However, recognition of the agency of the poor should not preclude attention to patterns of oppression that may be intensifying in the face of top-down development processes imposed by increasingly well co-ordinated elites. Examination of patterns of violence in border areas across the Greater Mekong Sub-region suggests that integration facilitates the collusion of state actors in the dispossession of the poor in a manner that is deleterious to ethnic minorities, internal migrants and other vulnerable populations. National political processes are not offering mechanisms by which such populations can seek to contest this trend.     

Modes of legitimation by female Pentecostal-Charismatic preachers in East Africa: a comparative study in Kenya and Tanzania

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the rise of female Pentecostal-Charismatic (PC) church leaders and how they legitimize themselves in a male dominated religious field in Kenya and Tanzania. It explores, in a qualitative way, four women leaders’ modes of attaining legitimacy in African PC milieus and contributes empirically based knowledge from four cases which include Eleonorah Wambui of Prosperity Gospel Ministries and Jesca Njuguna of Prophetic Word Ministry in Kenya, as well as Neema Mwambembela of Holy Ghost Power Assemblies and Irene John of Miracle Prayer Ministry in Tanzania. We make reference to Boulding’s delineation of sources of legitimacy ([1967] ‘The Legitimacy of Economics.’ Economic Inquiry 5 (4): 299–307). We found that the four East African female preachers that we examined share certain common practices, but that differences are manifest among them owing to differences in their personal preferences and to the contextual flavour of each ministry.     

Fresh challenges faced on the ground by the Kingdom of the Sky: A quest for peace,harmony and stability

This article argues that Lesotho’s landlocked position, which inhibits trade and results in enclaves of the poor, not only leads to its dependency on South Africa, but also contributes to its instability. It points out that destabilisation remains a problem in spite of Lesotho having served as an excellent model of peaceful transfer of power in a strengthened democratic arena under its 1993 Constitution, as the country had just celebrated 20 years of relative peace. However, despite the 1991 Windhoek Declaration military coups, violence, violation of both human rights and human security continue to contribute to instability in Lesotho, requiring the frequent intervention of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and especially so following the attempted coup in 2014. Lesotho’s Coalition government, which is a prime-ministerial form of government, is discussed in some detail in this article. The role of peacekeeping forces is also examined. The article recommends demilitarisation as the only practical, viable and long term solution to the problem of recurring coups in this country. The authors conclude that a sustained campaign against corrupt activities by government, though laudable, has somewhat surprisingly served to weaken the foundation of the Coalition in Lesotho.     

'Moves on a Chess Board': A Spatial Model of British Prime Ministers' Powers over Cabinet Formation

We use an institutional rational choice approach to help us understand how prime ministers in the UK make cabinet appointments and the implications for prime ministerial power. Assuming that prime ministers attempt to form a cabinet so as to get an overall package of policies as close as possible to their ideal, we show why the trade-offs they face are so complex, why apparently common-sense rules for making appointments might not always work well and why apparently strange choices made by prime ministers might actually be rational. Acknowledging the power prime ministers derive from their ability to appoint, we argue that the literature commonly fails to distinguish between power and luck, where lucky prime ministers get their way because they happen to agree with colleagues.     

African Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Human Rights: Implications for Higher Education,Based on the South African Experience

ABSTRACT

Africa has rich traditions and knowledge systems founded on the principles of caring for one another and the spirit of mutual support embedded in the African philosophy of Ubuntu. These collective values tend to be marginalised in international human rights standards built on western values. The standards were developed without broad-based consultation of the different value systems in Africa. Therefore, in order to inspire sustainable implementation among diverse cultures, dialogue to develop universal human rights and obligations based on the diversity of cultures and ways of knowing is needed. Using South Africa's experience at two universities, the extent to which these institutions have attempted to incorporate African indigenous knowledge systems (AIKS) and human rights into the higher education curriculum is investigated. The implications for higher education and the human rights and development paradigms built on western knowledge systems are investigated. North-West University has been the pioneer of integrating AIKS into higher education in South Africa and is the only higher education institution in South Africa with an accredited IKS Teaching Programme at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels – which has been notably successful, albeit with some challenges. AIKS has also been integrated into research and teaching at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and has registered significant successes since 2012. The need to embed AIKS in the curriculum of higher education institutions is affirmed.