Female delinquents in a birth cohort: Tests of some aspects of control theory

In the light of the rather low, empirical interest in the etiology of female crime and delinquency, this study presents and discusses some findings on aspects of control theory. The data are taken from Project Metropolitan, a longitudinal study of a Stockholm birth cohort comprising 15,117 cases (males and females) studied during a 30-year period. Of the females 791 cases or 11% acquired records of delinquency, drug use, or crime up to age 26. The delinquents were divided according to assumed seriousness and compared to the nondelinquents on two dimensions of the social bond called Attachment to school and Commitment to education. The results show, first, that delinquency varies with the strength of the social bond and, second, that the ability to predict future delinquency with knowledge of these aspects of the bond is limited, as the variance proportions accounted for are low. However, when comparing the explained variances to some well-known studies, we find that the differences are not so extensive.This paper is published in its complete form by the Project Metropolitan Research Report series, Department of Sociology, University of Stockholm, 1989. The summary tables presented here are found in original form in the original version.     

What effect did the mob have on Chicago neighborhoods? Explicating the relationship between racket subcultures and informal social control

This paper examines the relationship between racket subcultures and informal social control. Specifically, this paper examines the influence of traditional organized crime on informal social control in community areas while controlling for satisfaction with the police, tolerance of deviance, neighborhood and organizational ties, and neighborhood attachment. The data used in this analysis comes from the Community Survey of the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods. They were obtained from the Inter University Consortium of Political and Social Science Research. Ordered logistic regression was used to analyze the data. The findings indicate that racket areas reported higher levels of informal social control when compared to similar non racket areas in the city of Chicago. These findings have important implications for the study of deviance. Not only do they suggest that criminals can play an important role in controlling street crime, the findings also support differential social organization theory.     

Crime and crime trends in different urban environments

This is a study of crime and crime trends in different urban environments in Stockholm. The study is in two major parts. First, on the basis of a study of the factorial social ecology of Stockholm in 1980, the city is grouped into major urban environments, and thereafter the criminality in these different urban environments is studied cross sectionally for 1982. Second, the trends in crime in the city of Stockholm and its different types of urban environments are studied over a 20-year period (1968–1987). The findings show significant differences between types of urban environments in rates of crimes, offenders and victims, crime structure, and crime and distance. Also, the trends in crime were significantly different between different types of urban environments.     

Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: from historical descriptions to forecasting the future

This article analyses 34 Swedish birth cohorts with regard to their participation in crime as measured by data from the convictions database maintained by Statistics Sweden. Most existing cohort studies are limited to one or a few cohorts. By contrast, the present study includes 34 cohorts, i.e. all persons born in Sweden between 1958 and 1991. The article discusses methodological problems associated with this type of approach and examines the possibility of making forecasts. The central results are that the number of males with a criminal record has decreased, whereas the number of females has remained fairly stable. Forecasts indicate that the cohorts' participation in crime will continue to decrease. Research and policy implications of the findings are outlined. It is proposed to introduce cohort statistics as a standard branch within regular criminal justice statistics.     

On the deviant age-crime curve of Afro-Caribbean populations: The case of Antilleans living in the Netherlands

The crime figures among Antilleans (people from islands in the Caribbean Sea) residing in the European country of the Netherlands remain high for offenders in their twenties and thirties, unlike other major ethnic groups residing in the Netherlands. The aim of this study is to get a better insight into the backgrounds of the deviances in the shape of the age-crime curve for this ethnic group. The research comprises a quantitative analysis of data regarding people who are registered as an offender in the Netherlands. This study has found indications that the high level of broken families might be related to comparatively high rate of offenders among adult Antillean men up to approximately 45 years.     

Revisiting the relationship between age,employment, and recidivism

Employment theoretically serves as a source of informal social control that can promote desistance from crime (Sampson & Laub, 1993). Findings from studies assessing the effects of employment, however, have been mixed. In a seminal study, Uggen (2000) reanalyzed data from the National Supported Work (NSW) Demonstration Project and found that employment significantly reduced the rate of recidivism among individuals aged 27 and older but had no impact on younger individuals. We reproduce and replicate Uggen's (2000) findings with data from four distinct employment programs: The National Supported Work Program (1975–1979), the Transitional Aid Research Project (1976–1977), the Employment Services for Ex-Offenders (1981–1984), and the Enhanced Services for the Hard-to-Employ Center for Employment Opportunities (2004–2008). We closely reproduced Uggen's original findings in the NSW but found evidence that the statistically significant interaction between age and employment in the NSW was only present at the year 3 follow-up and the observed effect is highly sensitive to minor threats to internal validity. Furthermore, a significant age–employment interaction was not observed in the three other data sources. These findings should encourage scholars to continue to investigate the age-graded nature of employment and crime, especially through a sociohistorical lens.     

Violent Crime in the Urban Community: A Comparison of Stockholm and Basel

In this article the authors present some preliminary findings from a comparative study of police recorded violent crimes in Stockholm and Basel. They present the first results from a comparative analysis of the situational context, the ecology of crime, and of offender residences in these cities. There is impressive evidence of basic similarities in the situational context of violent crime and the residential distribution of violent offenders. Yet there are also significant differences, some of which may have interesting implications for crime prevention. Firstly, violent crime seems to be more highly concentrated during weekend nights in Stockholm than in Basel. Secondly, they find evidence that the presence of weapons in a community increases the risk of more serious outcomes of violent events. Efforts to reduce the availability of weapons may thus have significant effects on the outcomes of violence, but not necessarily on its frequency. Thirdly, they show that offenders in both cities are highly concentrated in socially disorganised communities with few economic and social resources.     

Social ecology and police discretion: The influence of district crime, cynicism, and workload on the vigor of police response

This study provided a partial test of Klinger's (1997) postulations on the ecological correlates of police vigor using data drawn from the Project on Policing Neighborhoods (POPN). Klinger's theory hypothesized that a form of police behavior he called vigor would vary inversely with district crime levels because officers would be more cynical of residents, view crime as normal, perceive victims as less deserving, and have less time to devote to calls in high crime districts. Although data limitations precluded a full test, the current study examined two of the four mediating variables (officer cynicism and district workload) and their influence on the crime/vigor relationship. Findings revealed variables other than those examined might mediate the effect of district crime on vigor or the relationship between district crime and vigor might be spurious. Implications for future research and theoretical development are discussed.     

Public reputation and organised crime: explicating the relationship between racket subcultures and informal social control

This paper examines the influence of traditional organised crime on informal social control in community areas that once had a presence of organised crime while controlling for neighbourhood attachment, satisfaction with the police, social and organisational ties, and tolerance of deviance. The data comes from the Community Survey of the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods. The comparative quantitative method was used to analyse the data. The findings indicate that neighbourhoods with an historic reputation for organised crime can report higher levels of informal social control when compared to current racket areas in the city of Chicago. These findings have important implications for the study of deviance. Not only do they suggest that criminals can play an important role in controlling street crime, the findings also suggest that this public reputation remains long after organised crime activities have ceased in the area.     

Correlates of distance to crime in Mexico City

This study examined the correlates of distance to crime in a sample of 412 prison inmates in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. The study focused on crimes of theft and included a spatial analysis of the crime scene and the place of residence of the prison inmates. The data show a high clustering of criminals in a few neighbourhoods surrounding the old downtown area. Also, 38.8% of the sampled criminals committed their crimes in the same neighbourhood where they lived. Regression analysis revealed two independent and positive correlations of distance to crime: the monetary gain of the crime and if the prison inmates' intimate partner was also in jail. These findings suggest that, aside from the monetary rationale in the distance to crime function, the neighbourhood and family contexts deserve further research for a better understanding of criminal behaviour in Mexico.     

Clarifying the Effects of Neighborhood Context on Violence “Behind Closed Doors”

Research on neighborhood-level effects on intimate partner violence (IPV) has expanded significantly in the past two decades. However, to date, studies have been unable to disentangle compositional and contextual effects on IPV and have rarely considered the social mechanisms that might link neighborhood conditions to IPV. Using data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, this study considers individual and contextual influences on violence between partners, and examines the effects of disadvantage and collective efficacy on this type of behavior. Results indicate that neighborhood disadvantage significantly increases and collective efficacy significantly decreases IPV after controlling for individual-level correlates. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting that as with street crime, neighborhood disadvantage also exacerbates rates of IPV. However, unlike street crime, the impact of disadvantage on IPV does not appear to be mediated by collective efficacy. Understanding how collective efficacy affects violence between partners remains an open issue.     

Crime Volume and Law and Order Culture

The literature on public opinion about crime and justice has neglected the exploration of macro‐ or community‐level influences on individual‐level attitudes. A key macrofactor that may be related to individual level attitudes is the volume of violent crime. High crime rates can facilitate the development of a culture of “law and order,” a response that may be a practical or instrumental attempt to control crime. The present paper tests the hypothesis that persons residing in nations marked by a high volume of crime will be more likely to adhere to elements of a law and order culture. It employs data from the International Social Science Program (N = 15,024). Controls are taken from major theoretical perspectives on public opinion about crime as well as demographic factors. The results from a hierarchical linear model support the hypothesis that individuals residing in nations with high crime rates are more likely than others to support law and order ideologies. The findings extend the support for this relationship from research based on the US alone to other industrialized societies.     

Temporal regularities in homicide: Cycles,seasons, and autoregression

It has long been assumed that there exists a relationship between crime (including homicide) and season. After discussing three analytic approaches to this problem (looking for seasonality, a general autoregressive process, and cycles), we review the literature and show that confusing and conflicting findings have been reported about the temporal regularities of homicide. Employing monthly data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (1976–1989), we find evidence for seasonality, autoregression, and cyclicality of homicide. Our modeling approaches clarify the previous conflicting research; implications for theory and future research are discussed.The data utilized in this study were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data originally were collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Neither the collector of the original data nor the Consortium bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. The authors contributed equally to this article.     

Do crime hot spots affect housing prices?

ABSTRACT

Our knowledge about what happens to housing values when properties are close to places with high concentrations of crime, often called ‘hot spots’, is limited. Previous research suggests that crime depresses property prices overall, but crime hot spots affect house prices more than crime occurrence does and may affect prices of single-family houses more than prices of flats. Here we employ hedonic price modelling to estimate the impact of crime hot spots on housing sales, controlling for property, neighbourhood and city characteristics in the Stockholm metropolitan region, Sweden. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), we combine property sales by coordinates into a single database with locations of crime hot spots. The overall effect on house prices of crime (measured as crime rates) is relatively small, but if its impact is measured by distance to a crime hot spot, the effect is non-negligible. By moving a house 1 km further away from a crime hot spot, its value increases by more than SEK 30,000 (about EUR 2,797). Vandalism is the type of crime that most affects prices for both multi- and single-family housing, but that effect decreases with distance from a crime hot spot.     

Using Longitudinal Self-Report Data to Study the Age–Crime Relationship

Objectives

Given the growing reliance on longitudinal self-report data for making causal inferences about crime, it is essential to investigate whether the within-individual change in criminal involvement exists and is not a measurement artifact driven by attrition or survey fatigue—a very real possibility first identified by Lauritsen (Soc Forces 77(1):127–154, 1998) using the National Youth Survey (NYS). The current study examines whether the same threats to the validity of within-individual change in criminal involvement exist in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (NLSY97).

Methods

We first estimate cohort-specific growth curve models of general crime, arrest, and substance use, and then test the difference between the age–crime curves of adjacent cohorts. We take a general approach to test cohort differences in the growth curve models, which advances the existing method separately modeling for each pair of adjacent cohorts. To explore the sources of cohort differences, we also estimate separate growth curve models by individual crime item and by demographic group.

Results

We document non-standard cohort differences between the age–crime curves of adjacent cohort pairs that are consistent with the findings of Lauritsen (1998) on measures of self-reported offending. However, the size of the cohort effects in the NLSY97 is substantially smaller than those in the NYS. We also found that the cohort effects were only evident in some of the survey items. Moreover, we did not identify any similar cohort issues in the longitudinal measure of arrest.

Conclusions

The findings of cohort effects localized in a certain crime items and demographic groups may mitigate concerns over the limited validity of longitudinal self-report data. We discuss how the survey techniques used in the NLSY97 might explain our findings and suggest an area of future study to explicate remaining cohort differences.

     

Does police patrol in large areas prevent crime? Revisiting the Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment

Research Summary

The Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment (KCPPE) was seen by its developers to have produced “consistent evidence of the lack of effects of any consequence on crime,” a conclusion that was to have a strong impact on assumptions about police patrol for almost half a century. We identified the original official crime data from the KCPPE, and reanalyzed outcomes focusing on a comparison of the “proactive” versus “control” beats (“reactive beats” were criticized because of violations of treatment integrity); examining broad categories of crime (to increase statistical power); and using count regression models. Our findings are not unequivocal, but point to modest impacts of police patrol on crime in police beats.

Policy Implications

Our findings suggest that lessons drawn for half a century from the KCPPE need to be revisited. The KCPPE does not show that police patrol in large areas has no influence on crime, and this finding is consistent with several more recent studies. At the same time, we note that the effects of patrol in the KCPPE using our analysis strategy, and those found in other studies of preventive patrol in larger areas, are about half that found in hot spots policing studies. This suggests that police agencies ideally should invest in focused hot spots policing initiatives. However, absent an ability to manage such initiatives, or the crime analysis capabilities to identify crime hot spots routinely, simpler preventive patrol schemes to utilize uncommitted patrol time can be seen as potentially effective in preventing crime.     

POVERTY, INCOME INEQUALITY, AND COMMUNITY CRIME RATES

This paper examines the relationship between crime rates and aggregate economic conditions for 57 small social areas. The principal analyses address a continuing controversy—are community crime rates associated with absolute poverty, relative poverty (i.e., income inequality), or both. Using victimization data from 57 small residential neighborhoods, the analyses examine the association between absolute and relative poverty and rates of violent crime and burglary. The findings indicate that absolute poverty is more strongly associated with neighborhood crime rates, although the relationship is conditional on the type of crime considered. The implications of the findings are discussed within a perspective of community social control.     

Violent recidivism and chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia cohort

In the present study the relationship between chronicity and violent recidivism is analyzed using longitudinal data from the 1958 Philadelphia cohort. The data reaffirm prior research findings that a small cadre of offenders commits the majority of crimes which involve serious harm to the community, yet it was found that the violent offenders accounted for a large share of the more serious index offenses. In addition, among violent delinquents there is a greater proportion of chronic offenders than among nonviolent delinquents. Chronic offenders were more likely than nonchronic offenders to repeat a violent offense. Violent recidivists also committed a large proportion of nonviolent index offenses. One might imply from the results of this study that a policy of selective incapacitation of high-rate offenders would substantially reduce the amount of violent crime as well as nonviolent crime.     

Do perceptions of punishment vary between white-collar and street crimes?

Much has been learned about the relationship between sanction threat perceptions and criminal activity, yet little remains known about the factors that are associated with sanction threat perceptions. Moreover, because most researchers had studied deterrence within the context of street crime, even less is known about the factors that relate to sanction threat perceptions for white-collar crime. This study used data from a national probability sample to examine whether the determinants of perceived sanction certainty and severity for street crime were different from white-collar crime. Using robbery and fraud as two exemplars, the findings indicated that while public perceptions of sanction certainty and severity suggested that street criminals were more likely to be caught and be sentenced to more severe sanctions than white-collar criminals, respondent's perceptions of which type of crime should be more severely punished indicated that both robbery and fraud were equally likely to be perceived ‘on par.’ Additional results indicated that the correlates of certainty and severity were more similar than different, but that the results differed according to whether respondents were asked about the punishment that white-collar offenders were likely to receive as opposed to what they should receive.