Political judgments,perceptions of facts,and partisan effects

We test two competing hypotheses about the impact of partisanship and information on people's political judgments and perceptions of facts using Canadians' reactions to a major scandal. Our findings with respect to subjective political judgments confirm the argument that partisan predispositions are crucial. But there is no evidence to support the argument that the polarizing effect of partisanship is most evident among the most informed. When it comes to perceptions of “objective” facts, the results are consistent with Zaller's reception axiom: the more informed people are, the more likely they are to correctly perceive objective facts. Partisanship does not appear to affect these perceptions.     

Immigration and Perceptions of the Political System in Britain

Recently published research contends that concern about immigration is weakening the British political system by creating distrust in the elites and institutions in this system. Some may challenge this finding because the public opinion data used to illustrate this relationship is limited to the period of the recent Labour government, raising the possibility that it was an artefact of that era and thus may no longer hold. Using the most recent round of the European Social Survey (2010–11), this paper investigates whether this finding holds in the present era. The findings indicate that under the current Conservative‐Liberal Democratic government, concern about immigration is still related to negative perceptions of the political system. This finding, along with those reported in previous research, points to potentially serious negative consequences for the functioning of the British political system, which are discussed in the concluding section of the paper.     

公共管理学：定位与使命

公共管理学由行政学、公共行政学发展而来,其最初源头在政治学。所以,政治学对于公共行政学的意义,犹如经济学对工商管理学的意义。但是,公共管理学有自己特定的研究对象、学科体系和指导原则,因为,公共管理是一项独立的管理活动,其对象就是公共资源,其主体就是以政府为核心所形成的政府、市场、社会多元统一的公共治理体系;而其原则就是公共性、公正性和效益性的有机统一。在中国,公共管理学要走向成熟,实现科学化,关键是要关注中国公共管理的实践,创造中国公共管理理论。为此,中国公共管理学应该在3个方面作出努力:一是确立公共管理学特有的问题意识;二是确立中国公共管理的规范性价值体系;三是形成理论与实践能够相互转化的研究能力。     

Conflict, Fusion, or Coexistence? The Complexity of Contemporary American Conservatism

This paper draws on an original survey and on the 2004 NES to explore the complexity of contemporary American conservatism. In both datasets, we find evidence that economic and cultural conservatism stand as distinct strands of conservative attitudes. The original survey also allows us to further explore the role of beliefs about the market in economic conservatism. In the end, we find little support for either liberal hopes of fundamental ideological conflict among conservatives or conservative hopes of ideological fusion. Instead, our data suggests that a particular type of ideological coexistence among economic and cultural conservatives is the norm.

当代中国传媒、民意与公共决策的互动探析——以电话初装费政策调整和取消为案例

描述和分析了1990年末期以来由传媒参与、促进公共政策议程的个案。在该个案中,社会意见表达得以实现,促成了公共讨论,并导致了政府对在公共讨论基础上形成之民意的政策回应。对这一进程的发生及促成因素进行了分析和解释,研究表明:传媒、民意与公共决策的互动过程有三个重要关节点:民意表达、公共讨论、政府回应。在这个过程中,传媒起到了关键性作用,它充当了形成公共意见的"公共领域"的角色与功能。除了探讨传媒、民意与公共决策的互动过程与机制之外,对本个案中表现出的遗憾与局限也做了讨论。通过本个案研究,希望为当代中国传媒、民意与公共决策互动问题提供一个微观视角。     

公共管理与公众舆论

自18世纪开始兴起的公众舆论推动了近代西方民主思想的形成,而20世纪公共管理的勃兴正是这种民主思想体制化的必然结果。对于公众舆论的理性与非理性认识分野,受制于背后复杂的权力博弈。在近代公众舆论观向现代公众舆论观转型的过程中,公众权力论逐渐让位于管理控制论。由于国家-市场-市民社会的关系失衡,当代公众舆论面临着环境危机。在目前善治的要求下,公共管理从公共利益出发,必须以保护公众舆论的自由和多元为己任,确立自身被监督者、反馈者和配给者的多重角色,做到有所为和有所不为。     

The social logic of political choice: Picking a political party in the context of immediate social circles

The Social Logic of Politics places social learning at the center of political choice. People develop their political preferences, knowledge, values, perceptions of ability, and decisions about political behavior in interactions with others, usually members of their social circles. Political attitudes and goals are not derivatives of exogenous economic preferences. They are not the results of careful calculations, in which optimization of personal needs guides the mode of reasoning. This theoretical stance draws sustenance from recent work across the social science, even as it harkens back to established, if neglected principles of political analysis. My thanks to Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck for his encouragement and for the critical comments of several anonymous referees and to Josip Dasović and Jennifer Fitzgerald, my co-authors of Partisan Families: the Social Logic of Bounded Partisanship in Germany and Britain (Zuckerman et al. 2007). Material from that book appears in this essay.     

基于SNA的突发事件网络舆情关键节点识别——以“7·23动车事故”为例

运用社会网络分析方法(SNA)研究突发事件舆情传播的网络结构特征及关键节点识别,探究舆情传播的网络结构、节点位置及相互关系对信息的传播路径、传播速度及传播范围的影响等问题。以2011年重大突发事件"7.23"动车事故为实证研究对象,运用Pajek软件生成了"7.23"信息传播网络拓扑图,基于邻接矩阵数据进行了网络密度、可达性、聚类系数和中心性测度,依据测度结果和位置角色分析对其进行关键节点分层与识别。研究表明,突发事件网络舆情的传播和扩散以社会网络结构为基础,具有复杂性和动态性特征;网络结构与节点位置决定着成员的"影响力"程度;中心关键节点的资源控制能力与信息输入输出效率具有显著的正相关性。可以通过改变中心度、聚类系数等手段嵌入式引导关键节点,减少谣言和恐慌情绪的传播。本文采用详实数据对舆情传播关键节点的分层识别,拓展了社会网络方法在应急管理领域的应用,克服了以往研究中技术与管理实践相分离的弊病。     

Breaking the Glass Ceiling: Local Gender‐Based Earnings Inequality and Women's Belief in the American Dream

This article ties together research on gender, income inequality, and political ideology, by exploring the effect of gender‐based earnings inequality on women's belief in a fundamental tenet of the “American Dream”—meritocracy. Focusing on gender‐based earnings inequality in women's local residential context, and drawing upon relative deprivation theory, this article argues that variation across local areas in the relative economic status of women should influence the ideological outlook of resident women. In contrast to relative deprivation theory, but consistent with rising expectations theory, I argue that ideological disillusionment should peak in contexts in which women's earnings fall closely behind men, and that ideological optimism should rebound in contexts in which women's earnings have achieved parity with that of men. Utilizing pooled survey data, I find strong evidence that individual women's belief in the American Dream varies according to whether local women's relative earnings indicate confrontation with or breaking of the “glass ceiling.”     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.