Ideology and Ministerial Allocation in the Major Government 1992–1997

This article evaluates the allocation of ministerial portfolios according to ideological disposition within the Major government of 1992–1997. By examining the ideological attitudes of Conservative parliamentarians towards three ideological variables – economic policy, European policy and social, sexual and moral policy – it will analyse the ideological balance of the government vis-à-vis the Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP); the ideological disposition of those departing and entering government; and the ideological profile of the ministers appointed to the 'key' ministerial positions. The article will demonstrate the following: first, the Thatcherite 'right' were underrepresented at ministerial level, whilst the Tory 'left' secured a level of ministerial representation disproportionate to their numerical strength within the PCP; second, this was despite the fact that the process of ministerial appointments and departures gradually enhanced the representation of the Thatcherite 'right' of the PCP at the expense of the Tory 'left'; and finally, the 'perception' amongst the Thatcherite 'right' was that they were being marginalised in terms of the key ministries of state.     

Political Science Research in Sweden 1960–1975: An Overvie

Swedish research on politics during the fifteen year period 1960–1975 has not been confined to the departments of political science in Sweden. Research of this kind has also occurred in other university departments as well as outside the universities. However, the major portion of the country's political research has taken place within the framework of political science.     

Heaven's Talent Scout: Prime Ministerial Power,Ecclesiastical Patronage and the Governance of Britain

In the last decade the role of the Prime Minister in the process for making senior Church appointments has changed significantly. The man who replaces Dr Rowan Williams—and it will be a man—will be appointed through a procedure in which the Prime Minister is expected to enjoy no choice but to simply confirm the Church of England's preferred candidate. The aim of this article is to draw upon fresh empirical research in order to explore why and how the politics and governance of ecclesiastical patronage has been recalibrated in this way. More importantly this article seeks to embed the study of ecclesiastical patronage within a much broader appreciation of how other forms of ministerial patronage have also become tightly constrained. This, in itself, forges a connection between the role of politicians in senior Church appointments, on the one hand, and a much richer and broader seam of research and writing that poses distinct questions about the nature of modern governance, the benefits of depoliticisation, the accountability of appointment commissions, the capacity of politicians and the future of democracy.     

Fight,Flee or Fulminate: Prime Ministerial Challengers,Strategic Choices and the Rites of Succession

Prime ministers often have to work with prime ministerial aspirants, senior ministers who regard themselves as possible successors. But can these challengers seize the job when the prime ministers are reluctant to stand down? Using evidence from Canada, Britain and Australia, the article explores the conditions in which successions have taken place and the capacity of the prime ministerial aspirants to expedite the process. It identifies three alternative strategies that are shaped by the party rules in the different countries. The aspirants may flee, fight or fulminate. Which strategy will best improve their chances of winning the top job depends on the traditional or developing modes of leadership election that their parties have adopted. Some processes provide the means to assassinate the leader. Others have no opportunity to act; rivals can do nothing but wait, either in or outside parliament. The article finds that the broader the constituency that elects the leaders, the more secure those leaders are when their reputation declines.     

Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World, 1960–1999

This article examines contrasting claims made by scholars of oil and politics that oil wealth either tends (1) to undermine regime durability or (2) to enhance it. Using cross-sectional time-series data from 107 developing states between 1960 and 1999, I test the effects of oil wealth on regime failure, political protests, and civil war. I find that oil wealth is robustly associated with increased regime durability, even when controlling for repression, and with lower likelihoods of civil war and antistate protest. I also find that neither the boom nor bust periods exerted any significant effect on regime durability in the states most dependent on exports, even while those states saw more protests during the bust. In short, oil wealth has generally increased the durability of regimes, and repression does not account for this effect. Future research focused on the origins of robust coalitions in oil-rich states is most likely to provide fruitful explanations to this puzzle .     

Convergence or divergence?: change in welfare effort in OECD countries 1960–1980

Abstract. This paper examines changes in welfare effort from 1960 to 1980 and two intervening periods. Analysis of data on 17 OECD countries indicates that there is increasing divergence in welfare effort, as reflected in expenditure and policy orientation, although this statement masks important nuances relating to measures of welfare effort and time periods. The findings illustrate the importance of considering the elements of welfare effort. The patterns of variation in social transfer and government civil consumption expenditure differ as do the explanations of these patterns particularly those relating to the impact of working class mobilisation variables. These variables are positively and relatively strongly associated with change in consumption expenditure in both the 1960–73 and 1973–80 periods but only weakly associated with change in social transfer expenditure. This has implications for findings relating to the widely used ILO measure of welfare effort. Since it is skewed towards social transfer payments and includes only a small part of consumption expenditure, the impact of working class mobilization variables is not evident. Finally, the standardization of change in welfare effort for average annual change in real GDP results in interesting insights relating to the impact of independent variables on 'real' as opposed to nominal change in welfare effort.     

Popularity functions for the Portuguese Prime Minister,Government, Parliament and President

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to estimate popularity functions for the Portuguese Prime Minister, Government, Parliament and President using the ordinary least squares (OLS) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) methods. The results indicate that: (1) popularity polls for the Prime Minister and Government are better explained by economic conditions than are similar polls for the Parliament and President; (2) unemployment is a significant variable determining popularity while inflation is not; (3) honeymoon effects are significant; (4) popularity deteriorates over consecutive terms.     

Party systems and the dynamics of government support: Britain and Germany, 1960–1990

Abstract. This paper examines the impact that one feature of a country's institutional context -the party system - has on public support for governing parties in two West European democracies, Germany and Great Britain. Specifically, it argues that models of government popularity need to take politics and institutions into account, and need to do so in a systematic fashion. Using measures of party system fractionalization and public opinion data spanning the period from 1960 to 1990, the paper demonstrates that the effects of economic conditions on government support are mediated by the choices available to citizens to express discontent with the ruling party. The greater the effective number of parties in a system, the stronger the effects of macro-economic performance on support for the government.