共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
The war in Iraq, so the widely accepted view, hurt the reelection of George W. Bush. We contend, to the contrary, that the
war helped him get reelected. First, we show that his victory fits the dominant pattern of wartime elections in American history.
Second, we find that Bush’s approval ratings benefited from a complex rally where the Iraq war prolonged rather than diminished
the 9/11 effect; most Americans affirmed rather than disputed a link between the war in Iraq and the war on terror. Third,
while Bush’s approval proves sensitive to U.S. casualties in the Iraq war, any damage to his standing prior to the election
was mitigated by sufficient popular support for that war. And finally, on Election Day, Bush was able to garner the vote of
two critical blocks with favorable feelings about the Iraq war, be it the decision to invade or the prospect of success.
相似文献
Andrew H. SidmanEmail: |
2.
Variations in the effectiveness of media priming are traditionally attributed to individual differences in political sophistication and news exposure. We contribute to this literature by considering the degree to which the content of an issue prime drives its use in presidential approval. Using a macro level approach, we combine public opinion data on presidential approval from 1981 to 2000 with content analyses of presidential news coverage to see how media attention affects the way issues are weighted in presidential approval. We find that the effectiveness of issue primes depends on issue content, such that familiar and understandable issues are more likely to be primed than more complex and difficult issues.
相似文献
Jennifer WolakEmail: |
3.
The literature makes clear that foreign policy affects voting, but it does not lead to clear expectations as to how a war will affect voting. Will views about the advisability of the war predominate? Or will the indirect effect through the incumbent’s image be more important? Will a war crowd out other potential issues, particularly domestic ones? This paper addresses these questions through a series of focused analyses of NES survey data. We find that an increase in strong Republican partisans clinched the election for President Bush. The Iraq War was not a direct vote gainer for the President, but the larger War on Terrorism burnished his image as a leader, at least long enough to win the election. Likewise, the cultural war allowed President Bush to retain some of the votes that he might otherwise have lost due to the unpopularity of the Iraq War. 相似文献
4.
According to many theoretical accounts of the vote choice, distal determinants (e.g., party identification) influence proximal
determinants (e.g., perceptions of candidates), which in turn shape candidate preferences. Yet almost no research on voting
has formally tested such mediational hypotheses. Using national survey data collected between February and September of 2004,
this paper begins by illustrating how to conduct such investigations. We explored whether public approval of President Bush’s
handling of a series of specific national problems (e.g., the Iraq war) influenced overall assessments of his job performance
and evaluations of his likely future performance versus John Kerry’s, which in turn shaped vote choices. The results are consistent
with the claim of mediation and shed additional light on the impact of various issues on the 2004 election outcome. We also
tested what we term the “dosage hypothesis,” derived from news media priming theory, which posits that changes in the amount
of media coverage of an issue during the course of a campaign should precipitate changes in the weight citizens place on that
issue when evaluating the president’s overall job performance, particularly among citizens most exposed to the news. Surprisingly,
this analysis did not yield consistent support for the venerable dosage hypothesis, suggesting that the conditions under which
priming occurs should be specified much more precisely in future work.
相似文献
Jon A. KrosnickEmail: |
5.
Since Mueller's [Mueller, J., 1970. Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. The American Political Science Review 64 (1), 18–34.] pioneering study, students of presidential approval ratings have agreed that major events affect these ratings. Despite this consensus, there is wide divergence in the ways that scholars have selected events for inclusion in models of approval ratings. This inconsistency inhibits direct comparisons across studies and raises the possibility that results are contingent on those selection criteria. Thus, what we have learned about the impact of various factors that may affect approval may depend on the details of selection criteria. Practically, scholars analyzing presidential approval ratings for any theoretical purpose must construct a list of events themselves, which takes considerable time. We propose a set of selection criteria and construct a list of events from 1953 to 2006 that scholars can employ. We also demonstrate that the list of events generates empirical results that comport with extant findings in the presidential approval literature. 相似文献
6.
Mario Gavenda 《Regional & Federal Studies》2016,26(3):419-432
The 2016 Austrian presidential election was remarkably different than the previous ones in the history of the country characterized by its stable political system. Not only did it open the role of president in Austria to debate, but it also sidelined the two political parties that had dominated Austrian politics since World War II. Alexander Van der Bellen won the election with one of the closest margins in recent history. This article argues that the election divided the country in more than one way. Besides the near 50–50 divide between the candidates, the results show that it generated important dynamics in territorial politics as well, notably in the states and cities of Austria. These results point towards a party system transformation in Austrian politics. 相似文献
7.
Herbert F. Weisberg 《Political Behavior》2007,29(2):143-149
The U.S. election of 2004 affords an opportunity to investigate how wartime affects presidential voting. The conventional
wisdom is that wartime presidents always get reelected, but previous studies have not examined how citizens' attitudes on the war affect their voting. The papers in this special issue investigate this process, looking at
how attitudes on the Iraq War, the larger War on Terrorism, and the so-called cultural war affected attitudes toward the presidential
candidates and voting. The studies use a wide variety of datasets and survey questions, showing that the different aspects
of the war resonate with different voters and that some of the effects of wartime are indirect through increasing the salience
of leadership in the election. Wartime presidents do not get reelected automatically; they have had success in reelection
because of how they use the war to build an image that can get them reelected.
相似文献
Herbert F. WeisbergEmail: |
8.
《Journal of Political Marketing》2013,12(2-3):69-87
Abstract The 2000 Presidential election was one of the longest, most expensive and closest in American history. It was the Presidential election that exposed the flaws (or genius) of the electoral college system, demonstrated the imperfections of media dependency on exit polls and quick election calling, and showed how a third party candidate with just two percent of the popular vote could make the difference in the crucial state of Florida. Democrats lost states they should have won; Republicans lost every big city and most of their suburbs; and the Florida election came down to a five-to-four muddled decision by the Supreme Court. Americans collectively learned a great civics lesson: that even in a bitter, controversial contest, our candidates accept defeat graciously; the simple act of voting is not so simple; and that for all its shortcomings, the electoral college did work. 相似文献
9.
Stephen T. Mockabee 《Political Behavior》2007,29(2):221-248
In this study I adopt a view of cultural conflict that extends beyond the usual set of controversial “moral” issues like abortion
and gay rights to include symbolic issues related to patriotism and group affect. Using a set of survey items asking about
respondents’ preferences in child-rearing, I create a measure of individuals’ orientations toward authority that proves to
be a potent predictor of attitudes on cultural issues, affect toward social groups, party identification, and vote choice.
This authority effect persists even in the presence of extensive multivariate controls for demographic and religious variables.
I find that both authority measures and religion measures shape political attitudes, suggesting the need for a multi-faceted approach to understanding cultural conflict.
相似文献
Stephen T. MockabeeEmail: |
10.
《Journal of Political Marketing》2013,12(2-3):137-158
Abstract The data of the 2000 Polish presidential election have been analyzed according to Newman and Sheth's model of voter's choice behavior (1985). Although this model was originally interpreted within the statistical perspective of discriminant analysis, it could be also extended within the framework of structural equation methodology. Namely, if the seven cognitive domains (Issues and Policies, Emotional Feelings, Candidate Image, Current Events, Epistemic Issues, Social Imagery and Epistemic Issues) are assumed to be distinct and separate, they can be treated as independent (predictive) variables with the voter's intention as a dependent or predicted variable. The three models were tested and the resuits of path analysis show the complex pattern of mutual interdependence between the cognitive domains and voter behavior. The specificity of the cause-effect relationship obtained by the structural equation methodology presented in the paper allows us to put forward some practical suggestions regarding the way electoral campaigns should be conducted. 相似文献
11.
12.
MICHAEL FOLEY 《The Political quarterly》2008,79(4):518-528
The presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have indicated an apparent resurgence in American liberalism. More significantly, they have underlined both the highly problematic nature of the liberal legacy within the Democratic Party and the difficulties of mobilising liberal themes in the battle of ideas that characterises the conduct of politics in the United States. The article examines the difficulty of the issue by reference to four predicaments that persistently condition the status and deployment of liberal themes. In analysing the problems of strategy, historical narrative, political positioning and ideational engagement, the study analyses the negative connotations of contemporary liberalism, the multiple limitations of liberal reform, and liberalism's deficiencies in the politics of America's core ideas. A revived liberal prospectus will depend upon the ingenuity of liberal forces in challenging the conservative ascendancy in ideational competition, and in renegotiating a public settlement of their own with the central strands of political legitimacy. 相似文献
13.
14.
15.
For the first time in Singapore's history, two elections were held in a year. In 2011, Singaporeans voted in a general election on 7 May and in another competitive presidential election on 27 August. Faced with a stronger opposition force and an emboldened electorate, the ruling People's Action Party won the elections but achieved the worst results since the country's independence. 相似文献
16.
Political Behavior - Divisions between Whites and Blacks have long influenced voting. Yet given America’s growing Latino population, will Whites’ attitudes toward Blacks continue to... 相似文献
17.
Costas Panagopoulos 《Political Behavior》2008,30(4):455-467
Compulsory voting laws have consistently been demonstrated to boost electoral participation. Despite the widespread presence
of compulsory voting and the significant impact these laws appear to have on voting behavior, surprisingly little effort has
been devoted to analyzing how mandatory voting alters the decision-making calculus of individual voters in these systems.
Moreover, studies that investigate the influence of compulsory voting laws on electoral participation generally treat these
policies monolithically, with scant attention to the nuances that differentiate mandatory voting laws across systems and to
their consequences for voting rates. Analyses that explicitly and empirically examine the effects of penalties and enforcement
are surprisingly rare. This study aims to fill that void by adapting rational choice models of participation in elections
for compulsory voting systems. I find that the level of penalties countries impose for non-compliance and the degree of penalty
enforcement impact turnout rates. Voters in mandatory voting systems abstain least when both the penalties and the likelihood
of enforcement are high, and abstain most when both meaningless.
相似文献
Costas PanagopoulosEmail: |
18.
Questions about whether voters rely on their policy preferences when casting ballots have been present since scholars first began examining the determinants of voting behavior. This paper seeks to contribute to research in this area by analyzing abortion policy voting in Senate elections. Specifically, I investigate how the effects of national party position divergence, candidate position divergence, and voter information and salience moderate the relationship between abortion policy preferences and vote choice. The results suggest that the national parties' divergence on abortion does not directly strengthen the connection between abortion policy preferences and ballot decisions. Instead, candidate contrast appears to be the key. And, well informed and motivated voters are especially responsive. Taken together, the findings illuminate the nature of abortion policy voting and also inform the burgeoning scholarship on campaign effects, the role of information, and issue publics in American politics. 相似文献
19.
Patrick Fisher 《Society》2010,47(4):295-300
The 2008 presidential election suggests a significant realignment among voters entering the electorate, with younger voters
deviating considerably from older voters in their partisan preferences. Barack Obama won the vote of those under 30 years
old by a 66% to 32% margin and first time voters favored him by an overwhelming margin of 69–30%. The fact that the age gap
between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination contest was also among the largest
age gaps in American electoral history suggests that part of the age gap was undoubtedly due to the appeal of Obama with younger
Americans. Part of the age gap, however, was also due to the unpopularity of the George W. Bush administration. The strong
youth vote for Obama in 2008 was thus both pro-Obama and anti-Bush in nature. The huge age gap in 2008 suggests a split of
the electorate along generational lines and the long-term consequences of the age gap appear to overwhelmingly favor the Democratic
Party. George W. Bush’s unpopular and divisive presidency helped to make the youngest generation of American voters increasingly
Democratic in their vote preference. This suggests that if younger Americans follow other generations in keeping the same
partisan voting patterns throughout their life, the Democrats are potentially poised to make considerable gains in future
elections. 相似文献
20.
The “PM and Pendulum” model was adjusted for the 2015 General Election to take account of the Liberal-Democratic participation in government and the SNP surge. So adjusted, the model predicts a Tory vote victory by 3.4 percent over Labour. The seat forecast puts the Tories ahead with 287 seats to 263 for Labour, with 41 for the SNP. Thus another Hung Parliament! Ex-post estimates show that without the Lib-Dem adjustments the model would have predicted a Conservative majority. 相似文献