Banzhaf voting power, random elections, and the Electoral College winner’s advantage

In a recent article, Riggs et al. (2009) aim to measure the ‘Electoral College winner's advantage’—in particular, the extent to which the winner’s electoral vote margin of victory is magnified as a result of (i) the ‘two electoral vote add-on’ given to each state and (ii) the ‘winner-take-all’ mode of casting state electoral votes. Their results are based on two sets of one million simulated two-candidate elections. This note has two purposes. The first is to demonstrate that RHR’s simulation estimates can be calculated precisely using the theory of voting power measurement. The second is to correct several flaws in RHR’s analysis, the most substantial of which pertains to the effect of the two electoral vote add-on, which actually has a negative effect on the winner’s advantage.     

Empirical philosophies of mind

Three anthropological contributions within the debates on rationality and modes of thought are considered here: Horton's ‘African Traditional Thought and Western Science’, Gellner's Legitimation of Belief and Needham's Belief, Language and Experience. It is argued that within these texts, seemingly diverse and even opposed in theoretical position though they are, certain anthropological imperatives are common. Various philosophical views are invoked in these works in order to grapple with recurrent problems of social anthropology, a discipline conceived as the ‘empirical philosophy of mind’ and expressing itself as an essentially epistemological discourse. These attempts are unsuccessful but the reasons for their lack of success can be traced to certain constraints within the anthropological problematic itself.     

Using equations from power indices to analyze figure skating teams

Power indices were originally developed to measure voting power. However, Saari and Sieberg (Games Econ Behav 36:241–263, 2001) and Saari (Chaotic elections, American Mathematical Society, Providence, 2001a) have suggested that the equations from power indices could potentially be used in some sports contexts as a way of evaluating athletes. This article explores this idea in the context of figure skating. The International Skating Union developed team events in figure skating for the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia and for other major competitions. In this article, we show how the Shapley–Shubik and Banzhaf indices can be used to analyze contributions of athletes to their countries’ teams in figure skating team events. We illustrate this approach by analyzing the results from the 2014 Winter Olympic Games figure skating team event. We also discuss some ways in which the numbers assigned by the equations from power indices can be used in the figure skating context.     

An axiomated family of power indices for simple n-person games

In this probabilistic generalization of the Deegan-Packel power index, a new family of power indices based on the notions of minimal winning coalitions and equal division of pay offs is developed. The family of indices is parameterized by allowing minimal winning coalitions to form in accordance with varying probability functions. These indices are axiomatically characterized and compared to other similarly characterized indices. Additionally, a dual family of minimal blocking coalition indices and their characterization axioms is presented.     

开放式基金业绩实证研究

分析评价开放式基金业绩,是一个现实而有意义的课题.其中的实证设计直接涉及如下主要因素:样本基金的选择、基准组合的选取、无风险利率和基金周收益率的计算、数据来源及应用软件的确定等.在此基础上,通过运用收益率评价法和风险调整收益法,对所选16只样本基金2005年和2006年的业绩进行对比研究后发现:样本基金的业绩与证券市场行情密切相关,受到股票市场环境的主导性影响;这种主导性影响主要体现在对开放式基金投资收益和风险的影响上.因此,研究我国开放式基金业绩应密切联系其所处的证券市场环境.     

Empirical social choice: an introduction

The year 2012 was the 30th anniversary of William H. Riker’s modern classic Liberalism against populism (1982) and is marked by the present special issue. In this introduction, we seek to identify some core elements and evaluate the current status of the Rikerian research program and its empirical applications. Special attention is given to three phenomena and their possible empirical manifestations: The instability of social choice in the form of (1) the possibility of majority cycles, (2) the non-robustness of social choices given alternative voting methods, and (3) the possibility of various forms of manipulation of the decisions (heresthetics). These topics are then connected to the contributions to the current special issue.     

The Empirical Frequency of a Pivotal Vote

Public Choice - Some economic theories of voting suggestthat competition leads to close elections,and that election closeness is a factor forbringing voters to the polls. How often infact are civic...     

Inside Irredentism: A Global Empirical Analysis

Although many countries have ethnic kin on the “wrong side” of their borders, few seek to annex foreign territories on the basis of ethnicity. This article examines why some states pursue irredentism, whereas others exhibit restraint. It focuses on the triadic structure of the kin group in the irredentist state, its coethnic enclave, and the host state, and provides new data on all actual and potential irredentist cases from 1946 to 2014. The results indicate that irredentism is more likely when the kin group is near economic parity with other groups in its own state, which results in status inconsistency and engenders grievances. It is also more likely in more ethnically homogeneous countries with winner‐take‐all majoritarian systems where the kin group does not need to moderate its policy to win elections by attracting other groups. These conditions generate both the grievance and opportunity for kin groups to pursue irredentism.     

Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses

William Roberts Clark University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies, ISR 4202 Box 1248, 426 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248 Matt Golder Florida State University, Department of Political Science, 531 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2230 e-mail: thomas.brambor{at}nyu.edu e-mail: wrclark{at}umich.edu e-mail: matt.golder{at}nyu.edu (corresponding author) Multiplicative interaction models are common in the quantitativepolitical science literature. This is so for good reason. Institutionalarguments frequently imply that the relationship between politicalinputs and outcomes varies depending on the institutional context.Models of strategic interaction typically produce conditionalhypotheses as well. Although conditional hypotheses are ubiquitousin political science and multiplicative interaction models havebeen found to capture their intuition quite well, a survey ofthe top three political science journals from 1998 to 2002 suggeststhat the execution of these models is often flawed and inferentialerrors are common. We believe that considerable progress inour understanding of the political world can occur if scholarsfollow the simple checklist of dos and don'ts for using multiplicativeinteraction models presented in this article. Only 10% of thearticles in our survey followed the checklist.     

大学生关于同性恋群体态度的实证研究

研究旨在探讨大学生关于同性恋群体外显态度与内隐态度之间的联系与差异,为进一步改善同性恋生存现状奠定理论基础。研究采用问卷调查法对257名大学生进行外显态度的调查,采用内隐联想测验对内隐态度进行测验。结果显示大学生对于同性恋群体的态度在外显态度上表现得更为接纳,而在内隐态度方面人们较为排斥,即实际上人们对于这一群体仍持有负性态度。     

Empirical evaluation of bureaucratic models of inefficiency

Two separate but related strands of literature exist regarding the efficiency of public sector service provision – the theoretical base developed in the bureaucratic models of supply and the methodological base developed in the operations research and economic literatures. Most analyses focus exclusively on either the measurement or causes of inefficiency. This paper seeks to empirically test bureaucratic models of supply by drawing on the measurement literature. In anticipation of the results, it is found that there does exist empirical evidence supporting some of the implications of these models.     

The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation

According to the democratic domino theory, increases or decreases in democracy in one country spread and "infect" neighboring countries, increasing or decreasing their democracy in turn. Using spatial econometrics and panel data that cover over 130 countries between 1850 and 2000, this article empirically investigates the democratic domino theory. We find that democratic dominoes do in fact fall as the theory contends. However, these dominoes fall significantly "lighter" than the importance of this model suggests. Countries "catch" only about 11% of the increases or decreases in their average geographic neighbors' increases or decreases in democracy. This finding has potentially important foreign policy implications. The "lightness" with which democratic dominoes fall suggests that even if foreign military intervention aimed at promoting democracy in undemocratic countries succeeds in democratizing these nations, intervention is likely to have only a small effect on democracy in their broader regions.     

Empirical determinants of corruption: A sensitivity analysis

Many variables have been proposed by past studies as significant determinants of corruption. This paper asks if their estimated impact on corruption is robust to alteration of the information set. A “Global Sensitivity Analysis”, based on the Leamer's Extreme-Bounds Analysis gives a clear answer: five variables are robustly related to corruption. Corruption is lower in richer countries, where democratic institutions have been preserved for a long continuous period, and the population is mainly Protestant. Corruption is instead higher where political instability is a major problem. Finally, a country's colonial heritage appears to be a significant determinant of present corruption.     

青少年的科学素质发展状况实证分析

连续四年,在三项大型连续调查的基础上,本研究分析了青少年的科学素质发展现状,主要包括以下六个方面的内容:(1)不同群体对青少年科学素质的评价;(2)青少年对科学精神与科学行为的自我评价;(3)不同群体对青少年动手实践能力的评价(4)青少年时科学相关问题的态度(5)青少年对科学常识的了解程度(6)青少年对迷信的态度。     

学科内容为依托的大学体验英语的实证研究

学科内容为依托的大学体验英语将英语学习和学科内容融合在一起,既促进了语言的发展,又有利于学科知识的构建。通过调查发现该模式激发了学生专业英语口语表达方面的兴趣,又有利于扩展专业英语词汇和提高跨文化商务交际方面的意识。同时,学生在专业英语自学学习能力上也有了进一步的提升。