后危机时代的国际政治格局与趋势

国际金融危机导致美欧日等西方发达国家经济陷入衰退,国际体系受到剧烈冲击,国际政治格局发生变化,以中印为代表的新兴经济体与美国的实力差距进一步缩小。世界多极化趋势更加明朗。中国的战略机遇期有望进一步延长。     

国际政治生态探究

引言21世纪,人类面临着各种的问题和挑战。生活在全球化时代的人们越来越关注日益尖锐的具有特殊重要意义的国际政治问题。在国际政治家的眼里,国际政治问题可以从不同的角度切入,按不同的兴趣研究。作为地球生态系统最重要组成部分的人类社会,其运行必然符合生态系统的运行规律。本文正是基于生物多样性理论从生态学的角度研究国际政治问题,探索生物多样性对国际政治问题的现实意义。一、政治多样性是国际政治稳定、持续健康发展的基础生物多样性理论历来就是生态学研究的热点问题。人们一般将其定义为生命有机体及其赖以生存的生态综合体…     

国际油价与中东承包市场

国际石油价格的变化影响着中东国家的石油收入,与中东建筑工程承包市场规模的变化有着正相关的关系.通过定性和定量分析可见,当油价上升时,该市场营业额随之上升,反之亦然.观察石油价格的变化趋势,了解中东建筑工程承包和劳务市场结构的变化,有利于中国企业成功进入中东市场.     

币缘秩序的解体与重构--当前国际政治的新焦点

此次金融危机是美元本位制的危机,危机使原有币缘秩序濒临解体,世界将进入美国霸权后的时代。争夺话语权,成为重构新秩序的前哨战,而如何建立新的国际货币体系和全球格局将成为未来国际政治的焦点。     

“国际政治周期性规律”的有效性与限度

现实主义国际关系理论认为国际政治存在周期性规律, 新现实主义更是认定在国际 政治周期性规律的作用下, 新兴大国与霸权国家为争夺世界霸权而引发霸权战争是不可避免的。 实际上, 这一“规律”有其适用的范围与条件, 因而有一定的限度。对国际政治权势转换及其后果的 研究应保持理论的开放性空间, 而在现实国际政治中, 全球化和相互依赖将消解这种“规律” , 从而 使新兴大国与霸权国家关系呈现新的前景     

金融危机对俄罗斯石油工业的影响

2008年,由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机如海啸般席卷全球,并逐渐演变为全面的经济危机,把世界经济推向衰退,其中发达经济体正在遭受第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退,新兴和发展中经济体正在经历严重的经济下滑.     

近期国际油价暴跌的原因与影响

自2014年6月下旬以来,国际油价持续下滑,近期更是连续暴跌。供需持续失衡、地缘政治影响减弱、金融投机等因素共同导致了此轮油价尚未见底的暴跌。油价暴跌在给美国、欧洲国家、中国等消费国带来低油价好处的同时,也引发了俄罗斯、委内瑞拉等生产国的经济金融危机和社会动荡。     

当前国际能源形势及解决能源安全的思路

国际石油供应吃紧,油价不断攀升,世界各国都程度不同地经受严峻考验。各国一方面积极开发新能源和再生能源,一方面为获得石油资源展开激烈竞争。然而,解决能源安全问题的正确途径,只能是通过国际合作,走平等互利、共同发展的道路。     

普京的国际政治观与俄罗斯国际战略

国际战略的决策者对国际形势的判断在很大程度上是基于他们的国际政治观。而不同的决策者因为其国际政治观的差别 ,对同样的存在会形成截然不同的判断 ,并最终形成截然不同的政策倾向。普京的国际政治观对俄罗斯国际战略的选择产生了重大的影响。俄罗斯“主动融入”战略与“全方位多元外交”战略的确立与实施 ,一方面突出反映了俄罗斯国家利益的现实要求 ,另一方面也是普京务实的国际政治观的具体体现     

互联网对国际政治影响机理探究

互联网开拓了国际政治新空间。互联网对国际政治的影响是其内在运行逻辑的外在表现。互联网以自身特有的内在规定性或是引导或是否定行为体的行为,迫使行为体服从其内在的法则以更好地维护自身利益。作者首先以层次分析法梳理互联网影响国际政治之路径,即个人、国家与国际体系。其次,阐释互联网作用于国际政治之运转核心,即国家利益、权力与安全,说明没有绝对的互联网自由,国家利益与国家安全至上。最后,揭示互联网助推国际结构变迁之作用,即催化、同步和建构作用。互联网作为信息媒介,可促使某些社会因素推动国际政治中的变革;作为先进技术,可促使国际政治自身的进展与时代发展不断相互确认;伴随微博和社交网站出现的人人互动的交际方式,使国际社会向世界社会进化的条件在互联网世界中有所形成。     

里海石油与国际政治

里海沿岸五国为维护各自的国家利益,在里海的法律地位和水域划分、油气勘探开采权、油气输出管道走向等三个问题上展开激烈的斗争,各国间利益冲突难以平衡.围绕里海能源之争,美俄之间的斗争将进一步加剧.     

The Pattern and Trends of International Politics in the Post-Crisis Era

In the 1990s, the dramatic changes in the Soviet Union and East Europe put an end to the Cold War stand-off between the United States and the Soviet Union. The world entered the post-Cold War era with the United States as the world＇s sole superpower. In the 21st century, the outbreak of the 9/11 terrorist attacks brought the United States into two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.     

“规模政治”:全球化背景下国际政治的新现象

"规模政治"是从经济学中借鉴过来的一个新概念,它是单个国际政治行为体在对外关系中由于自身和外在的作用而逐渐形成的一种理想化模式。"规模政治"与"规模经济"一样,都是通过数量的增加而使成本得到降低。全方位多边外交和合作型国际机制是使国际政治向更有利于"规模政治"方向发展的两大动力。在全球化的背景之下,国际机制特别是其中的合作型机制使国际政治越来越向"规模政治"方向发展,并同之前以权力和冲突为特征的国际政治大不一样了,国际关系越来越讲究互利、双赢、和谐。     

International Politics： A Desirable Paradigm

This article first traces the origin of four concepts International Politics (IP), International Relations (IR), World Politics (WP) and Global Politics (GP) and discusses the similarities among these four paradigms. It then analyses their application both at home and abroad. Finally, it argues for the desirability of selecting the concept of IP in academic training, thus facilitating practical application of concepts. It asserts that this will not only enhance academic discussion about IP among different Chinese schools of thought, but also help blazing new ideas.     

Machiavelli's Legacy: Domestic Politics and International Conflict

Research examining the effect of regime type on conflict has focused on the democracy/autocracy continuum expounded in the political philosophies of liberal thinkers such as Kant and Schumpeter. While this concentration has yielded impressive results (democratic peace), it seems plausible that other conceptions of regime type may yield similar success. This paper examines the philosophy of Machiavelli and develops a measure of his "imperial regimes." These states, which can either be democratic or autocratic, should exhibit an increased propensity to initiate international conflict. Testing this contention in Renaissance Italy (1250–1494) and the modern international system (1920–1992), this paper finds strong empirical support. Machiavelli's views illuminate key differences between democracies and autocracies that have been previously overlooked. Thus, it deepens rather than replaces our conception of how domestic institutions affect international conflict.     

Domestic Politics and International Relations

In reviewing the history of portions of international studies I reflect on how we might best advance knowledge. I dwell on two issues: questions of method and the urgency of refocusing our efforts on leaders and domestic affairs as the centerpiece for understanding the world of international relations. I argue that scientific progress is best made by combining three methodological approaches in our research: formal, mathematical logic to ensure internal consistency in arguments about complex and contingent relations among variables; case studies and archival research to evaluate verisimilitude between theory and action; and statistical analysis to establish the generality of the hypothesized relations among variables. Often such methodologically diverse and progressive research will best be accomplished by encouraging collaboration rather than by perpetuating the current norm of penalizing co-authorship especially among junior scholars. I offer concrete examples of advances in knowledge achieved through the employment of mathematical reasoning and statistical analysis as many have cast doubts about the substantive contributions of these particular approaches. My perspective is, of course, personal and may not be shared by many others. I set out my thoughts, therefore, with the hope that they will stimulate constructive debate and dialogue and that they will serve to integrate diverse approaches to international affairs.     

宗教因素与国际政治

在国际政治与国际关系的发展中,宗教是重要的影响因素。江泽民同志曾指出: “要了解当今世界必须了解宗教,对宗教问题在当今世界政治社会生活中的影响,绝不能低估。无论是做好国内的各项工作,还是开展对外工作,都要求我们密切关注宗教问题”。[1]深入思索宗教与国际政治的关系,无论是对于理解宗教这一独特的文化现象,还是对于把握当代国际政治的脉博均具有重要意义。     

Apologies in International Politics

This article examines the growing conventional wisdom that apologies and other acts of contrition are necessary for international reconciliation. I create and test a theory that connects a country's remembrance with that country's image—threatening or benign—in the eyes of former adversaries. I evaluate the theory in two post-World War II case studies: South Korean relations with Japan and French relations with Germany.

This article offers three major findings. First, it substantiates the claim that denials inhibit reconciliation. Japanese denials and history textbook omissions have elevated distrust and fear among Koreans (as well as Chinese and Australians). Second, although whitewashing and denials are indeed pernicious, the conventional wisdom about the healing power of contrition must be seriously reconsidered. Evidence from the Japanese and other cases suggests that contrition risks triggering a domestic backlash, which alarms former adversaries. Finally, there is good news for the prospects of international reconciliation: countries have reconciled quite successfully without any contrition at all. West Germany actually offered very little contrition at the time of its dramatic reconciliation with France; many other countries have restored close and productive relations without contrition. The best course for reconciliation is to remember the past in ways that are unifying, rather than divisive, and minimize the risk of backlash.     

Revenge in International Politics

This paper conceptualizes the phenomenon of revenge in international politics and seeks to specify the conditions that increase or diminish the tendency of states to take revenge against enemies. We situate the discussion of revenge within the broader context of emotions in IR. We argue that whether or not a state will take revenge depends on the combinations of three interrelated and mutually constitutive variables: (1) the degree to which a state emotionally experiences harm against it as morally outrageous, (2) the extent of humiliation the harmed state feels, and (3) the degree to which international retaliation is institutionalized by rules and laws that govern the use of cross-border force. We examine the Second Lebanon War (July 2006) as a case of revenge in international politics.