THIRD WORLD URBANIZATION AND AMERICAN FOREIGN AID POLICY: DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE IN THE 1990s

Over the next decade, the demographic and economic characteristics of countries to which the United States government provides technical and financial assistance for economic development will change substantially. Rapid urban population growth, the expanding role of cities and towns in national economies, continued migration of population from rural to urban areas, explosive growth in the size of the labor force, and shifts in the occupations of the labor force from agriculture to manufacturing and ser- vices will require a reorientation of American development assistance. Yet, program objectives and budget allocations of the U.S. foreign aid program fail to reflect these changes in the characteristics of its clientele. The US. Agency for International Development lacks an overt strategy for coping with urbanization in developing nations. Without an urban strategy, the American foreign aid program is likely to incur increasing opportunity costs and fail to address critical problems arising from fundamental shifts in the economic and social structure of developing countries.     

How the Clinton Administration Can Make Foreign Aid Work

The changes taking place in the world today are exposing the inadequacies of the U.S. foreign assistance program. Beyond external changes such as the fall of communism, internal changes have occurred in the policy decisions and purposes governing the program, management and operations of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), level of public attention on scandal, and aggressiveness of congressional oversight. After describing the purposes of the foreign assistance program, this article assesses the evolving role of the agencies involved in foreign assistance planning, budgeting and implementation processes; the processes themselves; the changes affecting the program; and the decision-making structure. Three reforms are needed to make the U.S. foreign aid program more responsive to U.S. foreign policy interests and more effective in accomplishing its development mandate. First, a strong policy focus is needed to direct the program toward realistic objectives and the best mechanisms for achieving those objectives. Second, the foreign aid program must move away from implementing projects with limited objectives and toward programs that promote broad-based economic growth, pluralism and democracy. Finally, AID should be merged into the State Department, and its field structure reorganized and reduced to better integrate development and foreign policy considerations.     

Who cares about human rights? Public opinion about human rights foreign policy

Literature on foreign aid and human rights often presupposes that constituents favor using foreign policy to promote human rights abroad and lead elected policymakers to pursue such policies to retain electoral support. This assumption, although frequently asserted, has not been empirically evaluated. And there are reasons to be skeptical about whether public opinion supports human rights foreign policy compared to other policy objectives. This article explores US public opinion about human rights, by asking two questions: Does the public think human rights should factor in foreign aid decisions and does the context—the strategic or economic relationship between the donor and recipient—affect this? This article uses results from a nationwide experimental survey to evaluate these questions. I find that the majority of respondents support cutting aid to punish human rights violators and that this depends minimally on the importance of the recipient.     

Foreign Aid,Human Rights,and Democracy Promotion: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Does foreign aid improve human rights and democracy? We help arbitrate the debate over this question by leveraging a novel source of exogeneity: the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. We find that when a country's former colonizer holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union during the budget‐making process, the country is allocated considerably more foreign aid than are countries whose former colonizer does not hold the presidency. Using instrumental variables estimation, we demonstrate that this aid has positive effects on human rights and democracy, although the effects are short‐lived after the shock to aid dissipates. We adduce the timing of events, qualitative evidence, and theoretical insights to argue that the conditionality associated with an increased aid commitment is responsible for the positive effects in the domains of human rights and democracy.     

Competing Concerns: Balancing Human Rights and National Security in US Economic Aid Allocation

This paper theorizes that the effect of human rights violations on US economic aid is conditioned by the salience of US national security concerns. National security concerns will be more salient in situations where recipients contribute to maintaining US security and in temporal eras when the USA is perceived as being under increased external threat. As the relational and temporal salience of national security increases, any negative effect of human rights violations on US economic aid should decrease. I test this hypothesis by examining US economic aid allocations to states from 1977 to 2005. The results show that the salience of national security concerns present in the US-recipient relationship does condition the relationship between human rights violations and US economic aid. There are also significant differences between different temporal eras of US foreign aid allocation. Future work should address how conflicts between interests and values in US foreign policy are negotiated.     

UNDERSTANDING "DESTARILIZATION": THE UNITED STATES IMPERATIVE

The U.S. policy of trying to destabilize the Sandinista regime in Nicaragua violates accepted principles of international law. Based on the long-standing principles of "humanitarian intervention" of the Nuremberg Judgment and Article 7 o f the U.N. General Assembly's 1974 Definition of Aggression and American traditional acceptance of the principles of natural law, the Nicaraguan intervention in El Salvador may be interpreted as law enforcement. The United States, on the other hand, is not acting on behalf of the international law of human rights in its llcovertll counter-revolutionary operation in Nicaragua but i s acting to restore repression in Nicaragua. The trouble with U.S. policy in Central America is the Reagan administrationls simplified reliance on the East/West, "free versus nonfree" nations as the only meaningful axis of its foreign policy. This leads to acceptance of the might makes right doctrine and U.S. support for repressive regimes in such places as Guatemala and Haiti. These policies not only are unlawful and contrary toour best political traditions, but are verylikely to fail.     

Agency reform as decision process: The reengineering of the Agency for International Development

The Agency for International Development (AID), the U.S. Government's principal dispenser of foreign economic assistance, is struggling to define its mission in the post Cold War era. AID staff and overseas presence has contracted in recent years following reinvention reforms. But reinvention has not clarified the agency's mission nor protected it from powerful critics. AID's future depends on its ability to develop a mission that excites popular demand. Agency reformers promote foreign aid as a means to advance sustainable development in developing countries. But AID's sustainable development mission lacks credibility because it excludes references to reforms required in post-industrial societies. Participation of U.S. local interests in aid management and more effective promotion of familiar premises for aid (many of them consistent with the tenets of sustainable development) are essential elements of a revitalized foreign aid program.     

Foreign Aid and Undeserved Credit Claiming

Politicians in developing countries misuse foreign aid to get reelected by fiscally manipulating foreign aid resources or domestic budgets. Our article suggests another mechanism that does not require politicians to have any control over foreign aid in order to make use of it for electoral purposes: undeserved credit claiming. We analyze the conditions under which local politicians can undeservedly take credit for the receipt of foreign aid and thereby boost their chances of reelection. We theorize that politicians can employ a variety of techniques to claim credit for development aid even when they have little or no influence on its actual allocation. Using a subnational World Bank development program in the Philippines, we demonstrate that credit claiming is an important strategy to exploit foreign aid inflows and that the political effects of aid can persist even when projects are designed to minimize the diversion or misuse of funds.     

Presidential Saber Rattling and the Economy

Saber rattling is a prominent tool of the U.S. president's foreign policy leadership. Yet there has been no study of how presidential saber rattling affects international or domestic political outcomes. This study evaluates how presidential saber rattling affects U.S. economic behavior and performance. Theoretically, the study demonstrates that presidential rhetoric affects the risks that economic actors are willing to take, as well as the consequences of these resulting behaviors for U.S. economic performance. Using monthly time series running from January 1978 through January 2005, vector autoregression methods are applied to show that increased presidential saber rattling produces increased perceptions of negative economic news, declining consumer confidence, lower personal consumption expenditures, less demand for money, and slower economic growth. More broadly, the study demonstrates an important linkage between the president's two most important roles: foreign and economic policy leadership. The president's foreign policy pronouncements not only impact other nations, but also affect domestic economic outcomes.     

U.S.-India Space Partnership: The Jewel in the Crown

The new strategic partnership between the United States and India is creating opportunities for security cooperation. A key element in this partnership—U.S.-India space cooperation—will most likely become the defining relationship for international space cooperation around which other space-faring nations will posture. The Indian space program is rapidly developing world-class capabilities and presents itself as a worthy partner. The U.S. space program should be able to provide innovative ideas for fruitful collaboration. Despite these propitious circumstances, there are potential obstacles of cost, security, and risk. The biggest obstacle, however, might simply be bureaucratic intransigence and inertia. The opportunity is here, now, for the United States and India each to add an important new jewel to their crown of international space cooperation activities. Most importantly, this new space partnership should enhance the security and prosperity of the United States, India, and the world.     

Civilian victimization and international military intervention in civil wars

Civil wars are particularly destructive and asymmetric in nature. As a result, humanitarian crises and episodes of one-sided violence against civilians are likely to emerge. In the post-Cold War era, human rights norms have been strengthened by a global commitment stating that nations have a responsibility to protect people against war crimes. Although the doctrine does not require military responses, as episodes of one-sided violence increase dramatically in the midst of civil conflict, we would expect those cases to experience relatively swift foreign response, including military intervention; a growing trend of at least purportedly humanitarian interventions should be observable. Expectations relating to the responsibility to protect are tested on all civil conflicts occurring between 1989 and 2006. Findings indicate that there is little evidence that one-sided violence leads to military intervention, suggesting that the internationally community does not use its most powerful tool to protect civilians in trouble.     

Human Rights as Reputation Builder: Compliance with the Convention Against Torture

A strong record of human rights protections is an important factor for a state to maintain a positive international reputation. In this article, we suggest that states will use compliance with human rights treaties as a mechanism by which to improve their reputations to help achieve their foreign policy goals. We hypothesize that international human rights compliance is a means to improve a state’s reputation in three specific situations: when the state is facing regional pressures as the result of a desire to join a regional organization; when the state is facing regional pressures not to run afoul of a court within a regional organization; or when a state seeks foreign assistance from an entity with human rights requirements for the receipt of such assistance. We examine our theory by analyzing human rights reports regarding state compliance with specific treaty obligations outlined in the Convention Against Torture (CAT). While the evidence for our hypotheses is mixed, we do find some support for our assertion that state compliance is linked to reputational concerns. In particular, states comply with the CAT when they are part of a regional organization that has a human rights court, and when they are receiving conditional aid from the European Union.     

Coping with transborder penetration: The politics of television

International conflicts are brewing over the transmission of television signals across international boundaries. The dispute is illustrative of an increasing range of cases in which the actions of one national economy penetrate deeply into another, and in which national interests and national values conflict. In this instance, the opposition to such signals stems not only from authoritarian regimes but also from democratically elected governments. The U.S. government defends such transmissions on the basis of strongly held U.S. values, including the concept of maximum choice for viewers and the fear that regulation of an entertainment medium may lead the way to government censorship. U.S. commercial interests are also involved. The conflict promises to grow more acute in time; yet the U.S. government finds it extremely difficult to agree on mitigating measures with other nations in areas of policy such as television, that is, areas that entail both domestic and foreign considerations.     

The State Constitutional Pedigree of the U.S. Bill of Rights

A direct comparison between the U.S. Bill of Rights and prominentEnglish common law documents shows that the first ten amendmentsto the U.S. Constitution have only a limited relationship toEnglish antecedents. Nor were the amendment proposals by thestate ratifying conventions the primary source of the U.S. Billof Rights. Instead, this famous addition to the federal Constitutionwas a summary of the common core found in the seven existingstate bills of rights. James Madison's use of this source restedupon colonial developments in rights theory, contrasting notionsof rights in England and America, competing notions of libertyin America in the 1780s, and the political exigencies surroundingthe ratification of the U.S. Constitution.     

The continuing threat of oil supply interruptions

The reaction of oil-importing nations to the energy crisis of the 1970s offers insight into a common characteristic of government behavior. Nations often fail to prepare themselves for potentially disastrous crises even when the probability of crisis seems high. Policymakers seem unwilling to confront the fact, for instance, that the oil glut does not insulate importing nations against sudden interruptions in supply. In any case, the glut will very likely have evaporated by 1990, when U.S. vulnerability will be sharply intensified. Despite the favorable opportunities for stockpiling and planning during the glut, the political process appears unable to respond.     

COVID-19 and American Attitudes toward U.S.-China Disputes

The COVID-19 outbreak has fueled tension between the U.S. and China. Existing literature in international relations rarely focuses on virus outbreaks as factors affecting international relations between superpower countries, nor does research examine an outbreak’s potential influence on the public’s opinion about their country’s foreign policy. To bridge this research gap, this study explores the extent to which the American public may be prone to favor policies that “punish” China via existing U.S.-China disputes, such as the South China Sea dispute and the U.S.-China trade war. I conducted an online survey using Amazon’s Mechanical Turk and ran multinomial and ordered logit models to estimate the association between an individual’s preferred policies and the country or government an individual blame for the impact of the pandemic. After controlling several essential confounding factors, such as one’s levels of nationalism and hawkishness, I found strong evidence that there is a positive association between people’s attribution of blame to the Chinese government and the likelihood of supporting aggressive policy options in the two disputes with China. That is to say, U.S. citizens who believe that the Chinese government is solely culpable for the outbreak in the U.S., compared to those who think otherwise, are more likely to support hawkish policy options, such as confrontational military actions, economic sanctions, or higher tariff rates. The research provides a glimpse into where Americans may stand in these disputes with China and the potential development of U.S.-China relations in the post-pandemic era.

     

An empirical analysis of viewer demand for U.S. programming and the effect of Canadian broadcasting regulations

Using viewer share and rating points for the Toronto/Hamilton television market, we estimate the demand for U.S. programs retransmitted in Canada and test several hypotheses on the effect of domestic content regulation, program type, simulcasting regulations, network affiliation, and other broadcasting variables on audience size. These estimates have general implications for the current trade debate over the cultural industries. More specifically, our results provide support for some U.S. rights holders arguing for greater compensation for the retransmission of programs in Canada, and they raise questions about the publicly stated rationale of domestic content quotas generating net social benefits. These results can generalize to the many European Union and English-speaking countries using similar domestic content quotas.     

Information technology and development: creating ‘IT harems’, fostering new colonialism or solving ‘wicked’ policy problems?

The proliferation of information technology offers challenges to developing countries which struggle with basic human needs. Yet the key to their survival may lie in information which is inaccessible to them. Facing these challenges, developing nations start from a position of frailty based on low levels of capital; a limited information infrastructure; dependencies on foreign aid and multinationals; and an ever‐increasing population growth. It is essential that foreign technology inflow is adopted strategically within the pre‐existing framework of national policies for technological development and with an emphasis on technology transfer. The broad policy direction needs to be towards the establishment of an information infrastructure and a contingent perspective for the meta‐policy process of designing appropriate information technology infrastructures. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Reagan Deficit

This paper analyzes the U.S. federal budget deficit during the Reagan administration and its short- and longer-term consequences for the aggregate economy. While budget policies of the Reagan administration do not account for all of the increases in annual deficits or in outstanding federal debt during the Reagan era, an analysis indicates that the administration's program of tax reduction and defense spending build-up were the major sources of deficit growth after the recovery from the recession of 1981-82. For the near-term future, the legacy of the Reagan deficits includes (1) the failure of domestically owned capital formation to expand at rates comparable to our major trading partners, (2) the necessity of diverting U.S. products and income to servicing foreign creditors, and (3) the need for rates of interest and profits to be high enough to induce foreigners to retain their holdings of U.S. assets lest divestiture cause a virtual collapse in the exchange rate. The final evaluation of the impact of the Reagan deficit hinges on whether the Reagan era of high consumption prosperity proves a good trade-off with the consequences of attenuated macropolicy responses to recession, lower levels of U.S. owned capital stock, and remittances to foreign creditors.     

Campaign Contributions and U.S. Foreign Policy Outcomes: An Analysis of Cuban American Interests

To what extent are ethnic minority interest groups able to influence U.S. foreign policy? Current case study research has identified several factors that may condition the ability of diasporic groups to influence foreign policy toward ancestral “homelands.” To this point, existing studies have been unable to isolate the impact of campaign contributions from other factors that may influence U.S. foreign policy decision making. The current study uses a combination of conditional and standard logistic regression to examine the impact of Cuban American interest group and individual campaign contributions on a series of votes on key amendments in the 108^th and 109^th Congresses. Results from the study support the idea that the Cuban diasporic community in the United States has had an impact on U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba. However, there are significant limits to this influence conditioned in part by issue salience.