核军控的动力考察——以第一阶段限制战略武器会谈为例

冷战时期,美苏核军备的发展与竞争给这两个超级大国进行核军控提出了紧迫性。尽管美苏在核威慑、核军控的理论和实践上存在分歧,但双方共享对避免核战争、实行核军控的共同利益的观念或认知。这是它们在控制战略武器问题上合作的前提,并在第一阶段限制战略武器会谈及其成果中体现出来。然而,战略武器谈判不是在真空中进行的,随着美苏战略态势的消长、新武器技术的发展和各自的军事及政治需要,美苏共享的核军控观念和认知不断演进。利益、观念与理性选择在此过程中紧密联系、相互作用,共同决定核军控合作的发生。     

乔治·凯南与冷战时期美国的东亚政策

被称为"遏制之父"的美国著名"苏联通"乔治·凯南,在冷战初期美国政府制定东亚政策的过程中扮演了极其关键的角色,这集中体现在美国对华政策与对日政策的调整与制定上。本文对凯南作为"苏联通"参与冷战时期美国东亚政策制定这一历史现象加以论述,以此分析冷战时期美国东亚政策的某些特点,并对凯南有关中国与日本在国际舞台上实力地位的认识与判断进行一些思考。     

美国亚太地区新战略与克林顿政府亚太政策分析

战后,美国的全球战略是建筑在以苏联为主要敌人的基础之上。苏联的解体,宣告美苏两极格局的消失。对美国而言,在争夺世界霸权中来自苏联的现实威胁已基本解除,同时,美国也面临一项重要任务是:对其全球战略进行重估和调整。美国的亚太战略作为其全球战略的重要组成部分相应也要作出调整。本文主要针对美国对东亚太平洋地区的新战略以及克林顿政府对该地区的政策作简单分析。     

死神徘徊欧罗巴 美国驻欧核力量揭密

二战结束后不久,美国在欧洲主导建立起北约,并意图利用该组织达到控制西欧,遏制苏联的目的。为应对美国的封锁和孤立政策,苏联也与一些东中欧国家结成了华约组织。北约和华约的成立,标志着美苏争夺欧洲、称霸全球的斗争日趋激烈。在这场残酷的战略博弈中,美国在欧洲部     

戈尔巴乔夫的新思维和我们的新观念

去年12月美苏之间达成的中导协议、不久前有关各方签订的苏联从阿富汗撤军的协议、以及年内可能缔结的美苏削减50%战略核武器协议,使我们感受到了苏联对外政策吹向世界的一股清新气息。现在,人们已经不再怀疑,戈尔巴乔夫的新思维的确正在给苏联的外交行为带来变化,也正在给世界带来变化。如何估计这些变化,如何针对新的形势采取新的对策,这是中国外交必须作出回答的问题,也是这篇简短的论文对戈尔巴乔夫新思维所选取的讨论视角。本文拟从三个方面展开:首先分析一下戈尔巴乔夫新思维的前提和实质;其次归纳一下近年来中国对外政策调整所积累的新鲜经验;最后提出我们对国际关系以及中苏关系可能和应当具有的新观念。     

特朗普政府对伊朗政策及美伊战略博弈前景

特朗普政府把全面遏制伊朗作为美国中东政策首要目标,并对伊朗采取重启经济制裁、加大军事威慑等一系列强硬政策,以打击伊朗现政权的统治基础,以期最终达到政权更迭之目的。伊朗进行强烈反击,着力打造周边安全环境,加强与大国和邻国各领域合作,并加紧寻求国际经济与金融合作,多方位出手化解危局。当前,美国与伊朗战略博弈持续升级。伊朗如何实现经济突围,如何保持经济与民生稳定,是现政权面临的严峻考验,也是影响美伊战略博弈结果的重要因素,并且对遏制地区国家核军备竞赛势头具有重要意义。     

冷战时期美国的危机决策与行为规则探讨——基于对里根政府处理1983年“韩航事件”的分析

1983年,美国和苏联围绕“韩航事件”的互动使其发展成一场特殊的“危机”。里根政府的危机管理既体现谨慎的克制,又展示愤怒的宣传,这种在“克制”和“愤怒”之间的平衡是这场危机没有全面升级的重要原因,但仍极大增加了苏联在道义和制度层面的国际压力。在此次危机中,两国主管部门之间存在不对等及特性差异,这在一定程度上导致双方对危机事态的判断出现差别。“韩航事件”扭转了美苏关系松动的势头,实质性地提前冻结了美苏军控谈判及其他合作的进程。在危机降级过程中,美国希望持续施压的同时,主动试探对苏“务实的重新接触”,抓住时机,提出恢复低层次合作,得到苏联有限的积极回应。美国的这一举措有助于双方在高度战略互疑的形势下维持最基本互动,不至于双边关系脱轨。此次危机管理产生的积极成果是1985年美苏日就防止类似事件再次发生所签署的备忘录,以及1986年三方开通新的航空通话系统。     

冷战后美国的防扩散政策

苏联崩溃后,作为美国国家安全的主要威胁消失了。美国在冷战时期所制定和推行的专门对付苏联的战略和策略自然要进行调整和改变。美国认为现在国家安全的主要威胁来自大规模毁灭性武器(包括核武器、化学武器、生物武器以及弹道导弹)在发展中国家的扩散。美国必须根据新的安全环境制     

克里姆林宫易帜十年祭

苏联之亡,戈尔巴乔夫及其所代表的那一代苏共领导人有不可回避的重大历史责任,但根源在于其制度基因和历史演变."斯大林模式"不过是斯大林主义的乌托邦,并非社会主义的合适的社会模式;大俄罗斯主义的单一制国家是导致苏联解体的重要原因之一;社会帝国主义、霸权主义、核军备竞赛、国民经济军事化都是导致苏联衰败的原因;极权官僚制度及其必然的腐败最终葬送了党和国家,苏联是"自杀自灭",亡于"脑坏死".     

从海湾战争看美苏合作

以美国为首的多国部队,以执行联合国十二项决议的名义,经过大规模的空袭和地面战,将伊拉克军队赶出科威特并重创伊拉克军事力量,结束了海湾危机。海湾危机的解决与以往地区冲突相比明显的特点是:国际社会团结反对一个国家对另一个国家的入侵和兼并,其中尤其以美苏合作最为突出。苏联未向海湾派出一兵一卒,但从危机一开始苏联与美国的合作决定了海湾危机的最终结局。美苏合作占重要地位的海湾危机的解决方式,不仅影响到海     

2008年以来民进党修补与美国互信关系的效果及前景分析

2008年民进党下台以来，持续透过访美、恢复驻美代表处、在两岸政策和对美政策上积极迎合美国等做法，修补与美国的互信关系，为其重返执政创造条件。民进党对美示好的做好虽得到美方善意回应，但因民进党拒绝放弃“台独”立场，无法提出令美放心的两岸政策新主张，因此双方互信提升程度有限，美始终对民进党重新执政充满疑虑。因受美国对台战略考虑、民进党两岸政策转型的复杂性等因素制约，未来双方关系的发展前景充满变数。     

美国隐蔽宣传行动与苏东剧变

隐蔽宣传行动是美国冷战战略体系的重要一环。冷战爆发后,美国政府通过一系列重要文件确立了对苏联东欧集团实施隐蔽宣传行动的政策,并对苏联东欧集团实施了包括隐蔽的无线电广播、图书项目、释放气球、制造假消息、支持非政府组织活动和公共外交等大量隐蔽宣传行动。这些行动与其他公开宣传互相配合,潜移默化地改变了苏联集团受众的思想信念,激发了他们对现政权和社会制度的不满与对西方自由民主制度的向往,传播了各地反抗的信息,对20世纪80年代末的苏东剧变起了十分重要的滴水穿石和煽风点火的作用。     

T2 Transfer of high technology from the united states to the soviet bloc: A public policy issue

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Soviet-bloc states are engaged in an extensive effort in the legal as well as illegal acquisition of United States high technology. This study examines the importance to the U. S. of such losses; the manner in which the Soviets acquire our high technology; benefits of such acquisitions to the Soviet Union; steps being taken by the U. S. to reduce its loss of high technology; and the author's recommended course of action to reduce high-technology transfer.

The transfer of U. S. high technology to the Soviet Union is recognized as one of our most serious national security problems. This problem is complicated, however, when considering our free enterprise system and the need to promote free trade. On the one hand high technology represents a substantial share of our current exports, while on the other, the United States has relied on technological superiority to offset the Soviet-bloc edge in military might. An equilibrium must be established to ensure protection of both economic and national defense interests of the United States.

The Soviet effort to acquire U. S. high technology is broad based, supported by the Military-Industrial Commission and State Committee for Science and Technology (in legal acquisitions), as well as the Soviet Intelligence Service (in illegal acquisitions). Such techniques as review of U. S. publications, U. S.-Soviet exchange programs, as well as extensive clandestine intelligence operations, are utilized by the Soviets in obtaining our high technology.

The Soviet acquisition of U. S. high technology has greatly benefited the USSR. This is clearly seen in U. S. Government estimates that the Soviets may have saved as much as $100 million in research and development of advanced microcircuitry. Several examples of savings to the Soviet defense industry as a result of high-technology transfer are elucidated in this work. In short, the Soviets have been able to save billions of defense dollars by utilizing proven U. S. designs with none of the risks experienced in the research and development of this technology.

Because of the paradoxical nature of this question of high-technology transfer, U. S. Congressional reaction to renewal of the Export Administration Act of 1979 has been mixed. On one side of the aisle, there has been support of looser controls on high-technology exports to promote free trade. On the other side of the aisle, tighter controls on such exports have been supported to protect critical U. S. high technology. At the same time, the U. S. Government has undertaken steps to strengthen its agreement with the COCOM nations. Another effort undertaken by the U. S. and other Western governments is the expulsion of accused Soviet spies from various Soviet diplomatic establishments (at least 67 Soviets from January to May, 1983). Additionally, the U. S. Department of State, Defense, Commerce, and Customs, as well as the American Intelligence Community, have undertaken efforts to reduce high-technology transfer to the Soviet Union. U. S. industry has attempted to increase security of high-technology; however, because of the Defense Investigative Service's workload, the quality of background investigations on individuals, working in firms handling defense contracts, has suffered.

The author recommends establishment of an ad-hoc matrix organization to integrate the resources and efforts of all of the federal agencies, as well as industry, in controlling the transfer of U. S. high technology to the Soviet Union and Soviet-bloc states. The author also includes recommendations as contained in various Congressional bills. The author's suggestions are made with a view toward creating a balance necessary to the protection of our free market system and protection of the national defense of the United States.     

从美苏之间到美欧俄之间——1989年后中东欧国家的外交战略与大国关系的互动

在中东欧国家由苏联"卫星国"向北约和欧盟成员的转变中,苏联、美国、北约、欧盟及俄罗斯对中东欧国家的政策及它们之间的关系起到了至关重要、有时甚至是决定性的作用。正是在美苏对峙格局崩溃,美国成为世界唯一的超级大国,美、欧、俄的博弈渐次展开但远未构成三足鼎立的情况下,中东欧国家以加入北约与欧盟为主要内容的"回归欧洲"战略得以确立和实施。中东欧国家加入北约和欧盟对美、欧、俄关系产生了一定的影响,但不会从根本上改变与美、欧、俄之间现有的关系格局。     

Disaggregating and Defeating Terrorist Safe Havens

Terrorist organizations’ physical safe havens continue to shape the terrorist threat to the United States by extending the groups’ longevity and increasing the threat they pose. As a result, eliminating terrorist safe havens has been a key component of U.S. counterterrorism policy since at least 2001. However, some scholars challenged the post-9/11 policy consensus that terrorists find sanctuary in weak states and so-called ungoverned spaces. This article seeks to bridge this gap between scholarship and policy by offering a typology for disaggregating different kinds of terrorist safe havens. Our typology operates on two axes based on host government will (i.e., the host government's posture toward each group with haven inside its borders), as well as government capability, (specifically whether the host government possesses the specific capabilities needed to oust each group). This intersection of will and capability produces three types of havens. We briefly illustrate each type of haven using the exemplar case study of Pakistan—a location often described as an overarching safe haven, but which is actually home to several sanctuaries—and offer policy recommendations for addressing them. A need exists to disaggregate and identify how the United States can approach haven elimination. This typology and the analysis that stems from it offer a starting point for devising such strategies.     

卡斯特罗的外交战略思想探析

古巴是西半球唯一的社会主义小国,且在美国后院,遭受了美国半个多世纪对其封锁、孤立甚至扼杀的政策。卡斯特罗为保持古巴的安全、独立、主权与发展,顽强地与美国进行抗争,积极争取苏联、广大亚非拉国家及国际社会的援助与支持,积累了丰富的外交经验。卡斯特罗的外交战略思想带有浓厚的卡斯特罗风格和古巴特色,成功打破"地理宿命论"的神话,具有重要的国际意义和参考价值。     

State and local finance in a command economy: the case of the soviet union

Two aspects of Western public finance, the economic theory of federalism and public choice theory, have insights that, if adopted in the Soviet Union, could help improve its resource allocation to permit economic growth, mitigate the problems it has with its minorities, and aid the transition away from a centralized, Communist-Party-dominated State and society. The economic reforms proposed by Chairman Mikhail Gorbachev are briefly summarized and criticized in the context of a summary discussion of governmental decisionmaking in the Soviet Union. Lessons are identified from the U.S. historical experience that suggest certain steps to improve local government as necessary preconditions for improving Soviet economic efficiency. These are free local elections, a free local press, an independent judiciary with real authority to protect the integrity of the press and local elections, real decentralization of political power to the regions, steps toward equalization of fiscal capacity among the regions, increased citizen mobility, and adoption of actions to provide incentives for Western investment in local government capital formation. This last precondition requires a convertible currency. (To achieve a convertable currency may require other economic and political changes that are beyond the scope of this paper.) Aspects of the paper rely on information publically available through mid-1989.     

The Bulgarian connection: Drugs,weapons, and terrorism

Abstract

The Bulgarian government is involved in sub‐version of Western governments, almost certainly orchestrated in Moscow, involving drugs, weapons, and terrorism. Despite U.S. efforts to work with Bulgaria to curb the illicit traffic of drugs and weapons, cooperation has been virtually nil. This has prompted some members of Congress to probe Bulgaria's motives, and on February 26, 1985, Senator Alphonse D'Amato introduced a bill, S. 515, the Bulgarian Interrelation Review Act, directing the President to conduct a comprehensive review of U.S. policy toward Bulgaria. This article analyzes that legislation, the dimension of the drugs and terrorism connection in Bulgaria, and offers further recommendations in dealing with the issue.     

21世纪美日贸易谈判及其对华影响

21世纪之初,美日两国相关领域专家曾就开启双边FTA谈判的可行性进行探讨;两国政府间谈判后来也终于启动。作为第一阶段贸易谈判的成果,《美日贸易协定》和《美日数字贸易协定》已于2020年1月1日正式生效。进入21世纪以来,美日贸易谈判得以启动,表面来看是美国为了降低与日本的巨额贸易赤字,利用追加汽车关税手段对日施压,日本被迫应允。实际上,美日贸易谈判的启动和发展是两国在经济利益、双边关系、地缘政治、权力博弈等多种动因综合作用下的结果。美日贸易谈判增加了美国重返TPP/CPTPP制衡中国的可能,为美日联手打造排除中国的数字贸易规则创造了条件,建立了不对称权力谈判的样板,并增大了日本在中、美之间实施战略摇摆的可能性。美日贸易谈判短期内对中国的影响并不明显,但从中长期来看,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情加速推动世界秩序重构、美日两国政府更替、RCEP签署、中欧投资协定谈判如期完成、中国表态积极考虑加入CPTPP并正就相关事项展开研究等新的国际政治经济形势下,会在多个方面产生较大影响。深入分析进入21世纪以来美日贸易谈判有助于中国及时妥善应对相关问题。     

Securing the Transatlantic Maritime Supply Chains from Counterterrorism: EU–U.S. Cooperation and the Emergence of a Transatlantic Customs Security Regime

This article offers an analysis of the cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the United States on customs security in the context of the two actors' fight against terrorism. While other aspects of EU–U.S. counterterrorism cooperation have received some scholarly attention, not so much research has focused on security cooperation in the EU–U.S. customs and supply chain. To investigate the emergence of transatlantic cooperation in this field this article employs regime theory in examining the 2004 EU–U.S. customs security agreement, the 2012 EU–U.S. mutual recognition decision, and the transatlantic disagreement on the U.S. 100 percent scanning rule.