南苏丹公投对非洲局势的影响

2011年2月7日,苏丹南部公民投票委员会宣布苏丹南部公投的最终结果,结果显示,98．83％的选民支持南部地区从苏丹分离。随后苏丹总统巴希尔宣布承认和接受这一最终结果。南苏丹公投这一关乎苏丹分与合的重大事件,在改写苏丹历史的同时,必将改写非洲历史。南苏丹公投将对非洲局势产生如下四个方面的影响。     

African diasporas,development and the politics of context

This article seeks to add to the debate on the role of diasporas in development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa by considering why diasporas are not apparently as effective as development agents in an African setting as they have proven thus far in other regions. It argues that changing diasporic engagement and activities on the continent should be examined against the backdrop of the emergence of a ‘liberalisation from below’ which emphasises local ownership of development outcomes, the historical variety of African state forms and the continuities in the exercise of power and the nature of these states. In so doing, it brings into focus the ongoing transformation in state–society relations whereby the dependence—of elites and ordinary citizens alike—on external resources continues to deepen, and the importance of this context in drawing any conclusions about the role of diasporas as agents of transformation.     

The dynamics of welfare gains and losses: An African case study

This article uses panel survey data for Côte d'Ivoire to investigate the determinants of welfare gains and losses of households over time. A first‐difference model is estimated which takes account of initial conditions. For urban areas, it was found that human capital is not only a key explanatory factor for levels of welfare, but also the most important endowment to explain welfare changes over time. In rural areas, physical capital, especially land and farm equipment, mattered most. Household size and composition and socioeconomic characteristics of the household also affected welfare changes. Policy implications are discussed.     

Issues of justice and reconciliation in complex political emergencies: Conceptualising reconciliation,justice and peace

This paper focuses on what can be done during emergency and transition periods to promote sustainable peace, in the aftermath of complex political emergencies in Africa, with particular reference to issues of reconciliation and justice. There is no common understanding of the political conditions under which efforts at reconciliation should be minimal in relation to a focus on justice in order to achieve the 'best' peace, or of those where the pursuit of justice should become paramount. There is also not even a common language of what justice and reconciliation mean in the context of post-conflict peace-building. The paper concludes that there is a much greater potential role for outsiders with regard to justice, while reconciliation is considered to be more of an internal affair in which international actors can only be present as supporters of domestic initiatives, and even then with great caution.     

Presidential popularity in a context of economic crisis and political change: The case of Mexico

The study shows how presidential approval ratings in Mexico during an era of crisis have been shaped by citizen reactions to environmental conditions but also by the effects of the transition toward a more competitive electoral system. Regime transitions toward greater democracy in Latin America and elsewhere may hold important implications for the formation of public opinion and mass political behavior. Charles L. Davis is associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky. His interests include comparative politics, political psychology, and Latin America. Ronald E. Langley has been affiliated with the department of political science at the University of Kentucky. His recent research interests are public opinion and presidential politics.     

The curious career of an African modernizer: South Africa's Thabo Mbeki

Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's second democratically elected president, was born into left-wing politics. In exile, he became the face of the African National Congress (ANC) and developed a reputation as a modernizer. He returned to the country and built relations, not with the ANC's internal allies, but with the country's business community. In 1996, as Mandela's deputy, Mbeki implemented a neo-liberal economic package, called GEAR, which alienated many. In office, he both failed to acknowledge the threat of HIV/AIDS to the country and refused to pressure the failing regime in Zimbabwe; but it was his bypassing of parliament that ultimately led to his failure as president.     

Bangladesh Politics: Confrontation,Monopoly and Crisis in Governance

Despite the restoration of parliamentary democracy in Bangladesh since 1991, political governance of the country is still mired by innumerable ills. It broadly features a wide array of confrontation, competition, monopolization of state institutions and resources by the party in power. This trend of politics has tremendously weakened the formal accountability mechanisms and put governance in crisis. This article depicts the nature of confrontational politics in Bangladesh, its causes and impacts on governance with supportive evidence from both primary and secondary sources. As case examples, it shows how bureaucracy and local government institutions are grossly politicized as a result of confrontational politics and their impact on governance.     

African agency and global orders: the demanding case of nuclear arms control

Abstract

How much agency do African states have to shape global orders? This study puts the global nuclear order under scrutiny to answer this question. It amounts to a demanding case. Arms control is something that global great powers take very seriously, and there is no weapons category that they take more seriously than nuclear weapons. My findings provide a nuanced picture. Although often outflanked and frustrated by nuclear weapon states, the nuclear order would look different without African actors exerting their agency. They successfully shaped background and foreground institutions constituting the global nuclear order by building advocacies for new institutions upon already existing ones, reaching out to state and non-state actors outside of Africa, and channelling communication through African states with authority in global fora. This study makes three contributions: First, it underlines the key finding of recent literature on African agency that African actors are more to be reckoned with than often assumed. Second, it provides novel evidence about the diplomatic mechanisms through which they come to make a difference. Third, it adds to our grasp of the constitution of global orders as well as the processes through which they come to be made, re-made and unmade more generally.     

Price policy,poverty, and power within rural West African households

This paper explores the impact of agricultural price policy on poverty in West Africa, a region in which prices are an important tool for raising rural household incomes. A game-theoretic, collective model of household income generation and resource allocation is developed that incorporates three features typical of West African rural households: preference heterogeneity among women and men, individual resource control, and power-mediated bargaining over resource control in the face of changes in households' economic environments. To explore price effects, the model is used to simulate the income impacts of large increases in cotton prices accompanying fast-paced agricultural liberalisation in Burkina Faso in the 1980s. The paper shows that where resources are controlled individually by household members, rather than pooled, Pareto efficiency in income generation does not hold. The impact of agricultural price policy on poverty is mediated by bargaining over resource control within households. Both the relative bargaining power of women and men and the degree of preference heterogeneity between them play fundamental roles in the outcome of such bargaining. The results point to a lower ability of households to take advantage of price incentives and thereby raise their incomes than a unitary household model, in which preferences do not differ and resources are pooled, predicts. They suggest that the effectiveness of price policy in reducing poverty in the region would be enhanced by taking into account the incentive structure within households as well as individual household members' ability to bargain over the benefit and cost streams flowing from price changes.     

The politics of trade unions in transition: the case of the Congress of South African Trade Unions

This article explores changes in political allegiances within the South African labour movement, drawing on the findings of a nation-wide survey of members of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). Recent research shows that the Tripartite Alliance between the ANC, COSATU and the South African Communist Party remains overwhelmingly popular amongst COSATU members. This article shows that this appears to be both a product of South Africa's recent past and a reflection of a lack of credible alternatives.     

The introduction of public–private partnerships in the Netherlands as a case of institutional bricolage: The evolution of an Anglo‐Saxon transplant in a Rhineland context

In this contribution, the introduction of contractual public–private partnerships (PPPs) in the Netherlands, more specifically the use of Design, Build, Finance, Maintenance, and Operations (DBFMO) contracts in Dutch infrastructure management, is analysed using a specific strand within the policy transfer and institutional transplantation literature: that of ‘institutional bricolage’. This perspective states that policy transplants come to fit their new institutional context stepwise. This contribution reconstructs the adoption process by which the Anglo‐Saxon‐inspired PPP practice is incorporated into the traditional ‘Rhinelandic’ practice of infrastructure management in the Netherlands, identifying four waves of PPP initiatives. It concludes that these waves and the difficulties that emerge in them stem from an ongoing struggle between actor coalitions, one aiming to preserve the transplant in its original shape, and others making attempts at bricolage. Shifts in power relations explain the progress and outcomes of the process of institutional transplantation.     

The African struggle continues: The awakening of North Africa

La crise de l’État moderne en Afrique prouve que cette formation historique ne constitue pas la forme achevée du nationalisme africain contemporain. L’État moderne est né d’un contexte occidental historique. Il revient aux Africains eux-mêmes de penser leur propres structures étatiques avec des éléments endogènes de conceptualisation. La structure ethnique en est un. Comment peut-on l’intégrer de manière politiquement et économiquement viable en ce siècle de génocides et de conflits interethniques? Les liens ethniques créent un cadre économique et social basé sur d’autres institutions que celles de la modernité étatique. Le pouvoir ethnique harmonise autrement les trois monopoles de l’État moderne, à savoir la violence légitime, la distribution des ressources et la représentation politique. Il est donc possible de combler l’espace publique avec d’autres loyautés que la loyauté nationale.