发展中大国崛起的影响

当今国际舞台上最引人注目的一个现象就是发展中大国的经济和社会取得了快速发展。国际社会称之为发展中大国的崛起。     

Maritime Strategies of Rising Powers: developments in China and Russia

Abstract

This paper seeks to uncover the drivers of maritime strategy formulation in Russia and China, two active players on the international stage that have often been identified as both rising and regional powers. The paper takes as its starting point the realist theory of state power and threat perception, which provide the means and motivation for states to accumulate material capabilities in an effort to safeguard their position in the international system. Given the increasing pressures of a changing security environment, China’s and Russia’s maritime strategies show a trend towards greater complexity and capability. The paper also addresses the impact of the revolution in military affairs ( rma ) and its subsequent manifestation as force transformation in Western states, especially the USA. Given that this new, qualitatively focused way of war has gained supremacy, at least where high-intensity inter-state war is concerned, the question remains of whether the Chinese and Russians will choose to emulate the leading powers in the system or, instead, will forge into the unknown and formulate an entirely different and innovative maritime strategy.     

Rising Powers in a Changing Global Order: the political economy of Turkey in the age of brics

The rise of bric s presents a major challenge to the existing global order. A second category of emerging powers, which may be labelled near- bric s, have also displayed increasing pro-activism in recent years in terms of influencing the regional balance of power politics, in addition to their growing presence in international organisations and global affairs. It is in this context that we aim to examine Turkey as a striking example of a ‘near- bric ’ power, a country that has adopted an increasingly assertive and independent style of foreign policy with aspirations to establish itself as a major regional actor. Using the Turkish experience as a reference point, this paper aims to understand the extent to which near- bric countries possess the economic capacity, sustainable growth performance and soft-power capabilities needed to establish themselves as significant regional and global actors. The recent Turkish experience clearly highlights both the potential and the limits of regional power activism on the part of emerging powers from the ‘global South’.     

Contested war remembrance and ethnopolitical identities in Kosovo

This paper examines the relationship between political power and war remembrance by considering the way war remembrance occurs in a divided society. The purpose of this paper is to explore memory of the violent past and its uses as an ongoing arena of disputes between former adversaries and within ethnopolitical groups pushing their distinct versions of memory. Moreover, this paper examines three key aspects of the politics of remembrance: prevalent narratives, arenas of commemoration, and agencies of war remembrance, based on the case study of Kosovo. The postwar narrative and commemoration in Kosovo have evolved along ethnic lines, perpetuating antagonism and conflicting identities. Memorialization in Kosovo raises serious challenges for comprehensive transitional justice and reconciliation between these ethnic groups. The paper concludes that through appropriate civic education, critical inquiry of commemoration practices, and especially through evidence-based adaptation of the history curriculum, there is a chance to promote a culture of shared memory and to establish inclusive politics of remembrance in Kosovo, as crucial components of reconciliation and peace-building.     

Risking Security: Policies and Paradoxes of Cyberspace Security

Conceptualizations of cyberspace security can be divided into two related dimensions, articulated as "risks": risks to the physical realm of computer and communication technologies (risks to cyberspace); and risks that arise from cyberspace and are facilitated or generated by its technologies, but do not directly target the infrastructures per se (risks through cyberspace). There is robust international consensus, growing communities of practice, and an emerging normative regime around risks to cyberspace. This is less the case when it comes to risks through cyberspace. While states do collaborate around some policy areas, cooperation declines as the object of risk becomes politically contestable and where national interests vary widely. These include the nature of political opposition and the right to dissent or protest, minority rights and independence movements, religious belief, cultural values, or historical claims. The contrast between the domains has led to contradictory tendencies and paradoxical outcomes.     

金砖国家崛起与全球治理体系

后金融危机时期的世界面临三大机遇同时也是三大挑战。其一,全球治理体系进入一个新阶段：美国提供公共产品的能力下降;联合国体系难以适应新的全球问题;传统大国和新兴大国开始共同设定全球治理的议程。     

Middle Range Powers in Global Governance

Abstract

This article compares and evaluates the contributions of middle range powers to global governance initiatives. Examining participation in terms of personnel, financial and ideational contributions, we test several hypotheses derived from neorealism, critical theory, liberalism, constructivism, and post-internationalism against six cases: Canada, Japan, China, Russia, India and Brazil. We find that material power has a negative impact on contributions, while a country’s leadership’s attitude towards the international order, the length of its membership in major international organisations and the strength of its civil society all seem to have positive effects on its participation in global governance. Trade dependence, however, does not seem to exhibit the expected impact. The article indicates that multiple theoretical approaches may prove useful for evaluating the behaviour of middle range powers, and that further research should be conducted on the relative importance of each of the factors mentioned above in explaining middle range power contributions to global governance.     

East Side Story: How Transnational Coalitions Contested EU Conditionality

The literature on Europeanisation in relation to Eastern Europe has posited the material incentives of EU membership as the main driver of domestic reforms aimed at adopting EU rules and norms (conditionality). But this fails to explain puzzling instances where no EU rule exists yet domestic change happens under European influence, or where the rule is a condition yet has little impact. As repositories of (dis)information, transnational networks can embolden a candidate country to breach the rules or influence it to comply with the ‘extra-conditionality’ the networks themselves create out of their own agendas.     

Rising competitive authoritarianism in Turkey

Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002 Turkey has undergone double regime transitions. First, tutelary democracy ended; second, a competitive authoritarian regime has risen in its stead. We substantiate this assertion with specific and detailed evidence from 2015 election cycles, as well as from broader trends in Turkish politics. This evidence indeed confirms that elections are no longer fair; civil liberties are being systematically violated; and the playing field is highly skewed in favour of the ruling AKP. The June 2015 election results and their aftermath further confirm that Turkey has evolved into a competitive authoritarian regime.     

Contested Statelessness in Sabah,Malaysia: Irregularity and the Politics of Recognition

ABSTRACT

UNHCR's current #IBelong campaign presents stateless people as uniquely excluded, emphasizing the need for legal solutions to their situation. Such approaches to statelessness sidestep both the complexities of lived experience and the wider politics of state recognition. In response, this article utilizes ethnographic data from Sabah, Malaysia, and theorizations of the gray areas between citizenship and statelessness to argue for the fundamental connection between statelessness and irregularity. Such a connection is central to understanding both the everyday lives of potentially stateless people and Sabah's public discourse on statelessness as a mirage obscuring the problems of “illegals” and “street children.”     

US and Japan Should Engage Rising China and India

Globalization may yet repeal the Biblical adage that the poor will always be with us. But for now there are enough losers to go along with the winners that a slide back toward fragmentation and protectionism is a distinct possibility, as was also the case at the turn of the 20th century. Our contributors in this section offer their advice on how to make globalization work for everyone.     

邓小平与中国和平崛起

中国正在复杂多变的国际环境中和平崛起.人民政权的诞生,特别是上世纪70年代末起步的改革开放历程,昭示着党、政府和人民奋发追求的是一个文明古国名副其实的和平崛起.邓小平为此建立了卓著功勋.在这位伟人百年诞辰临近之际,笔者应约撰写这样一篇文稿,既引以为荣,又深感力不从心.姑且作为一份学习札记吧!     

新兴大国崛起的经验教训

迄今为止,中国学术界围绕大国崛起这一主题分别在20世纪80年代末90年代初、20世纪90年代初中期和2006年后进行过三次较为集中的讨论.实际上,当今时代中国的复兴和快速发展已经成为举世瞩目的事实,如何看待历史上主要大国的兴衰历程,如何吸取新兴大国崛起的经验和教训并从中得到有益的借鉴,已成为中国当前十分重大的战略问题.     

欧盟贸易保护主义日益抬头

近一时期,欧盟内外的保护主义现象不断抬头,根源于近年欧盟传统经济社会发展模式受到来自内部和外部的严峻挑战,其经济长期徘徊,福利改革推进步履维艰,政府、企业及民众对国际竞争疑惧心理上升等因素,值得密切关注.