体系变革背景下的中俄印三边合作关系——现状、条件及前景

在欧亚空间各国力量分化组合不断加快的大背景下,中俄印三边合作关系的发展既迎来更多机遇,也面临新的挑战。国际形势变迁和亚太安全架构建设的需要赋予中俄印三边关系更突出的时代意义,但相对滞后的合作机制还无法满足亚洲安全体系的现实需要。对中俄印三边合作来说,国际体系和地区结构等为其发展提供了一定的宏观有利要素,但国内政治、社会认知和政策操作等微观层面仍面临多重不利因素的干扰。只有充分重视中俄印三边合作在新形势下的重要性,加强在战略层面和操作层面的战略设计,并充分吸收其他多边合作的成功经验,才能突破发展瓶颈,实现三边合作关系的全面提升。     

英国推动“五眼联盟”转型的表现、动因与前景

作为“五眼联盟”的创始国之一和老牌欧洲大国,英国积极推动联盟转型。一方面,英国加强与美国的战略互动,积极参与美国发起的机制整合行动;另一方面,英国尝试更主动地影响转型的方向与内容,利用自身的传统优势推动相关议题发展。英国意欲借助“五眼联盟”转型将“全球英国”战略构想落地印太地区,拉拢更多有利于实现英国利益的地区合作伙伴。但如何在配合美国与实行自身战略之间统筹用好实力与资源,以及在这一过程中稳妥处理中英关系,对于目前国内政局动荡、经济萧条的英国来说是一个难题。     

美澳扩大军事合作：亚太安全格局新变量

作为美国亚太安全战略的＂南锚＂,澳大利亚对美国全球战略部署,尤其是亚太地区的前沿军事部署具有特殊的作用。随着亚太地区战略地位的提高,美国正在将战略重心向东转移,希望通过强化与澳大利亚的同盟关系,保持在亚太地区的主导地位。而澳大利亚为提高其在亚太地区的地位和影响力,也希望借助美国的影响力,加强与美国在亚太事务中的合作。美澳扩大军事合作已经成为影响亚太安全格局变化的一个新的变量。     

中英非和平安全合作的前景与挑战

中国和英国围绕非洲和平安全事务开展合作的可能性与必要性都在明显上升,这主要得益于以下几个方面的发展:中英在非洲安全理念趋同和安全利益交叉,中国更加积极地参与非洲和平安全事务,非洲2063年愿景对和平与安全及全球伙伴关系的渴求,中英面向21世纪全球全面战略伙伴关系的开启。但英国发展政策的安全化趋势,非洲对中英安全合作的疑虑及中英自身政策路径依赖都在阻碍这一合作的深化。因此,推进中非在非洲的和平安全合作的关键在于双方能否在共识的基础上合理、有效地管控分歧,推动中国的非洲和平与安全合作计划与英国海外稳定战略的对接,建立多层次的安全合作机制。构建中英非和平安全对话机制、从发展源头预防和应对冲突、增强非传统安全合作等是中英非和平安全合作的潜在领域和路径。     

“中美+”三方发展合作的双重挑战及修复路径

国际发展领域的"中美+"合作是指作为最大南南合作伙伴的中国、最大传统援助国的美国与来自发展中世界的受援方之间的三方发展合作。21世纪初以来,中美两国曾加强在国际发展领域的政策协调,开展了"中美+阿富汗"人力资源三方合作、"中美+东帝汶"农业三方合作、"中美+非洲"公共卫生三方合作等试点项目合作,取得了初步成果。然而,2018年以来"中美+"合作遭遇了国际发展领域内摩擦隔阂与美国对华政策阻力的双重挑战。在新冠肺炎疫情重创全球发展成果的当下,中美恢复和加强在国际发展领域的三方合作具有积极意义。通过敦促美方重启两国发展合作对话、鼓励中美民间组织开展非典型"中美+"合作、加强与受援方的协调和衔接等途径,中方可发挥建设性作用,努力推动"中美+"合作早日重回正轨。     

非洲自主发展的新态势、原因及前景

面对国际格局深刻调整和全球性挑战日益增多的现实,非洲国家联合自强意愿不断提升,在和平安全、经济社会发展、外交等领域呈现自主发展新态势。乌班图思想和泛非主义理念、经济持续稳定发展等为非洲增强自主性提供了精神支柱和物质基础。同时,非洲国家也需要在大国博弈中保持平衡、运用集体力量解决跨国性挑战,以在动荡的国际局势中实现利益最大化。非洲战略自主性不断提升乃大势所趋,但受制于自身发展的脆弱性、对外交往的依附性,短期内无法破解自主意愿高于能力建设、应激反应多于主动塑造的局限性。中国从多维度积极支持非洲自主发展,重在帮助其提升自主发展能力,非洲自主发展则为共建高水平中非命运共同体奠定基础。     

东盟“中心地位”面临的变局及其重构

<正>自2009年奥巴马出任美国总统以来,美国政府的核心关切逐步由"反恐"转变为"重振经济"。冷战后经济增长强劲、最具活力的亚太地区上升为美国全球战略新的重心。美国的亚太战略相应出现大调整,即美国着手将其二战后构建的轮毂型(hub and spokes)亚太双边同盟体系     

“新地区主义”研究不同视角的评析

20世纪80年代末90年代初,国际关系发生了历史性的巨变,经济全球化趋势先声夺人,全球化的种种力量推动人类社会加速走向一体化。学者们开始把“全球主义”作为一种实践中的理论形态加以探讨,再也不象当年“罗马俱乐部”提出“全球性总问题”时把它视为杞人忧天的呓语了。不论是鼓与呼还是嘲与恶,“全球化”和“全球主义”都无可改变地进入了当代人文社会科学的各大门类,对国际关系理论研究的各个流派、各个层面也产生了不可低估的影响。与此同时,人们又看到,伴随全球化趋势的发展还发生着另外一些似乎是截然相反的历史趋势,那就是“分裂化”或“分散化”的趋势。具体体现为两大方面,一是民族主义的复兴,包括受经济全球化影响而强劲发展的“经济民族主义”,冷战格局解体所释放出来的政治上的“民族分离主     

增进中外理解与合作的民间盛会——中国国际交流协会举办2012“理解与合作”对话活动

5月21-26日,由中国国际交流协会(以下简称“交流协会”)与中国和平发展基金会主办,中国人民争取和平与裁军协会、中国民间组织国际交流促进会、杭州市人民政府、义乌市人民政府等多家单位协办的2012“理解与合作”对话活动(以下简称“对话活动”)在北京、杭州和义乌举行.在此次活动中,中共中央政治局常委、中央纪委书记贺国强、全国人大常委会副委员长、交流协会会长周铁农、全国政协副主席、交流协会副会长李金华分别出席了各种交流活动.     

亚太安全机制的“缺位”与“补位”

亚太正在取代欧洲—大西洋地区成长为全球经济中心和地缘政治中心,这是当前的国际共识.同时,亚太也是国际冲突频仍,麻烦不断的地区,未来5-10年亚太国际冲突有加剧趋势,这不仅是国际共识,更是可以预言的国际政治现实.这两个国际共识,尤其是后一个国际共识,要求亚太建立一个能有效覆盖全区域的地区安全机制,以求抑制亚太国家间的矛盾与冲突,适应亚太崛起为全球经济、政治中心枢纽区的大趋势.     

RCEP:特点、问题与前景

作为世界最大的自由贸易安排,RCEP所取得的突破不仅有利于改善区域贸易与投资环境、增强区域供应链、推动经济复苏,还为区域经济一体化、全球贸易自由化、基于规则的多边贸易体制注入了前行的动力。同时,它对中国贸易和投资的可持续发展、高水平制度型开放、实施自由贸易区提升战略、构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局也可以发挥积极作用。RCEP以市场准入、规则、合作为支柱,具有开放包容、全面、高质量、互惠等诸多特点,并突出东盟方式与东盟中心地位。RCEP的后续生效实施与适时升级,将面临成员差异性与利益诉求复杂性、外部因素牵制、既有FTA规则的多样性与整合的难度、区域身份认同与大国协调等现实问题的挑战,仍需要以渐进灵活的方式,不断推动其深化和拓展。中国应一如既往支持东盟的主导地位,推动RCEP尽快生效。既要助力东盟提升凝聚力、加强大国协调,也要加速推进中日韩FTA谈判、加快与东盟成员的FTA构建。应不断提高规则利用率,充分发挥FTA本应具有的效应,以制度型开放营造良好营商环境,持续推动区域制度性经济一体化。     

A tango by two superpowers: China-US cooperation in trilateral aid and implications for their bilateral relations

The US-China relationship continues to be characterized by both competition and cooperation in recent years. Cooperation in the development sector is one little-known new aspect of such cooperation. This paper therefore examines why and how the two superpowers have undertaken cooperation in trilateral aid projects, and implications for bilateral relations. By tracing China-US policy engagement on development cooperation and examining their most recent trilateral aid project in the Asia-Pacific region, the paper argues that the US aims to use trilateral aid cooperation to engage with China and shape it into a responsible stakeholder, while China uses trilateral cooperation to build a cooperative image and facilitate the broad China-US relationship.     

Searching for Livelihood Security: Land and Mobility in Burkina Faso

The incremental approach to land reform in sub-Saharan Africa constitutes a rapprochement between proponents of the introduction of private property regimes and their critics. The incrementalists recognise that local tenure regimes can change and that they should be the basis of any land-reform programme. This article argues that an important gap remains with regard to the dynamics of tenure arrangements observed in a highly insecure environment, because the incremental approach retains a western-type of tenure security as its ultimate goal. Geographic mobility of actors and fields is essential to the protection of livelihoods in the north-central region of Burkina Faso. This mobility not only is made possible by the prevailing land tenure regime but also underpins its flexibility and allows the merging and shifting of rights. All of this argues against the establishment of western-type tenure security and in favour of the maintenance of flexible resource tenure regimes - a model discussed in recent years in relation to pastoral land use in drylands. This would have the additional advantage of integrating understandings of, and approaches to, pastoralists' and crop-farmers' land use in regions where these population groups already intermingle.     

Myanmar: analyzing problems of transition and intervention

Myanmar's State Peace and Development Council touts the 2010 elections as an important milestone on the roadmap to democracy. While the consensus among scholars is that the result is a foregone conclusion, these elections may also mark the beginning of a transition. As a transition from authoritarian rule may lead to internal chaos and result in calls for external intervention, the relevant dimensions of intervention are explored. The capabilities, interests and approaches of key external players in the context of Myanmar are identified. Both India and China have capabilities and multiple interests in Myanmar. However, the India–China rivalry and the lack of consensus around the responsibility to protect the doctrines are identified as risk factors. In spite of its shortcomings, the ASEAN Regional Forum remains the most appropriate venue to explore possible responses in case of chaos in Myanmar, which would be a tough test of its aptitude and relevance. The forum should upgrade organizational and practical capacities to respond to major crises such as a hypothetical collapse of central authority in Myanmar.     

Sino-Japanese Energy Relations: Processes and Constraints

Abstract

Economic growth and a resultant rise in energy demand in China and other East Asian countries have attracted academic interests in energy security and energy cooperation. This article examines the nuanced development of institutions to realise Sino-Japanese energy cooperation at the bilateral and regional levels. It highlights the objective and process of cooperative engagements in terms of relative gain concern and the involvement of non-state actors. The arguments that this article advances are three-fold. First, the Japanese government has pushed forwards multilateral energy cooperation in East Asia and bilateral cooperation for energy conservation with China, which would produce both economic and political gains. Second, the Chinese government has adopted a cautious approach to Japan's energy engagements largely because it took into account the relative political gains of committing to such engagements in addition to the economic gains produced by them. Third, the involvement of non-state actors in cooperative projects and their meaningful roles in forging cross-border linkages could play a catalytic role in advancing cooperative processes.     

澜湄合作的动力机制--基于“利益-责任-规范”的分析

尽管中国主导创设的澜湄合作机制是湄公河地区国际合作机制的后来者,但在过去四年多的时间里其取得了较好的发展成绩,已成为次区域合作的典范。对澜湄合作理论层面的研究与澜湄合作快速发展的现实是不相称的。本文试图搭建一个分析框架来研究中国创设地区机制的动力,认为澜湄合作是中国推动自身利益与湄公河国家利益相适应、在“共同但有区别的责任”原则指导下发挥力所能及的作用、积极构建“利益—责任—规范”三位一体的地区规范的过程。然而,目前增强澜湄合作发展动力还面临着区域内国家之间的利益分歧、“中国责任”与“他方期待”不对称、地区规范建构缓慢等因素的制约。澜湄合作要在众多地区合作机制中脱颖而出,需要关注更高层面的制度设计和集体认同的建设。而建立相对稳定的合作机制和保持制度的灵活性将是未来澜湄合作保持其生命力的重要问题。     

Democratic BRICS as role models in a shifting global order: inherent dilemmas and the challenges ahead

India, Brazil and South Africa constitute an important subset of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and emerging powers at large in a shifting global order. The article examines the capacity of these democratic BRICS to serve as a role model to the rest of the developing world, at a time when liberal democracy seems to be experiencing serious challenges and dislocations in the Global North. The article considers the important achievements of democratic BRICS, in terms of their individual performances as well as through active cooperation strategies through organisations such as the India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum. Attention is drawn to the inherent structural dilemmas confronted by democratic BRICS to serve as genuine role models, given their domestic weaknesses as well as inherent constraints on their collective action strategies. Our central argument is that these countries, individually and collectively, are likely to have a crucial bearing on the future of liberal democracy on a global scale.     

State,region and order: geopolitics of the Arab Spring

State failure, sovereignty disputes, non-state territorial structures, and revolutionary and counter-revolutionary currents, among others, are intertwined within the Arab Spring process, compelling old and emerging regional actors to operate in the absence of a regional order. The emergent geopolitical picture introduces the poisonous mix of loss of state authority spiralling toward instability, defined by sectarianism, extremism, global rivalries, and ultimately irredentism within interdependent subregional formations. This assertion is substantiated by detailed and specific evidence from the shifting and multi-layered alliance formation practices of intra- and inter-state relations, and non-state and state actors. Analysis of the relations and alliances through a dichotomous flow from domestic to regional and regional to global also sheds light on prospective future order. A possible future order may take shape around a new imagination of the MENA, with porous delimitations in the form of emerging subregions.     

新时代中国外交理论建设与外交实践笔谈

从方法论、理论意义和制度创新三个角度把握新时代中国外交理论的丰富内涵和发展方向,是深化新时代中国外交战略和外交理论研究的重要保证。人类命运共同体思想不仅丰富了中国的国际关系理论,也有力推动着理论范式的创新。这种创新表现为中国国际关系理念与价值创新、思维创新、模式创新和话语创新。我们需要深刻辨识中国全球伙伴关系战略对开创国际关系新模式的理论意义和高质量共建"一带一路"对世界共同现代化的制度创新价值。21世纪的国际竞争具有新的特点,更多体现为纵向竞争、间接竞争、错位竞争。由于美国视中国为长期性的竞争对手,这使得国际体系中的大国战略竞争呈现长期化态势。我们应从更广阔的战略图谱中定位竞争,从管控竞争、化解竞争的角度去应对竞争,其中包括推动实现"真正的多边主义"。