A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk

Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An illustrative example examines the prospects for disintegration in China. Although highly simplified, this example shows how this technique is able to derive conclusions difficult or impossible to achieve through traditional analysis, and its potential for strategic decision makers, whether in the private or public sector.     

"9.11"后中亚地缘政治新格局

"9.11"事件后,美国借反恐之机,大举进军中亚,从而使中亚地缘政治格局发生了重大变化,并对该地区的地缘政治形势产生重要影响.但美俄战略争夺加剧等诸多不确定因素的存在,使中亚形势的前景仍不容乐观.     

区域研究的新路径:"新区域主义方法"述评

本文以赫特纳等人提出的关于冷战后新区域主义研究的“新区域主义方法”为对象 ,阐述了该方法以批判国际政治经济学研究为学术视角、以“区域性”和“区域间性”为理论基石、以“核心—中间—外围”三大区域结构为核心、以“安全、发展和生态可持续性”为价值准则 ,涉及经济、政治 /安全、社会、文化、环境等多纬度内容和全球、区域、国家和次国家等多层次动力的新区域主义及其世界新秩序观 ,并分析了其理论和现实意义及其存在的一些不足     

A New Bi-continental Approach to Transatlantic Defence Cooperation

The prospect of transatlantic cooperation in the field of defence systems depends on reaching an acceptable point of equilibrium. Without it, Europe will face the unacceptable strategic, political, economic and industrial risks of total American predominance in this field (with the consequent loss of technical and production expertise). The reduction of the gap between Europe and the United States depends on the integration of the European defence market. This must not be seen as a threat for transatlantic collaboration, but as an opportunity. Building up a transatlantic market could also improve the efficiency of the American market by increasing competition. This collaboration, based not on bilateral, national or multilateral agreements, but on bi-continental cooperation, is the challenge that Europe and the United States must face and meet together.     

土耳其外交新政辨析

以埃尔多安为总理的土耳其政府,在外交上以凯末尔主义和战略深度主义为指导思想,利用独特的地缘战略位置,积极扩展在中东、中亚、高加索、巴尔干等地区的影响力,改善与邻国的关系。土耳其政府的外交政策体现出独立性、平衡性、多样性的特点,外交策略显现出“由西转东”的倾向。尤其是在中东剧变之后,土耳其在中东地区极为活跃,积极与变革后的国家开展外交活动。外交政策的调整表明了土渴望与以往所忽视的东方国家改善并发展关系。但是,作为西方国家尤其是美国的传统盟友,土耳其以西方国家为基轴的外交战略不会在短时期内发生根本改变。     

A Narrative Approach to the Practice of Mediation

Thinking in narrative terms is proving useful in a number of disciplines. Such thinking has already contributed to a growing body of work in the family therapy field. Here, we seek to demonstrate the usefulness and applicability of the ideas developed by Michael White and David Epston (among others) to the practice of mediation. Distinctions are drawn from the problem-solving approach with regard to both basic theoretical assumptions and method. A transcribed mediation scenario is used to illustrate and comment on the techniques of narrative mediation in action.     

The Stability Pact for Southeastern Europe: A New Approach to a Regional Problem

The European Data Protection Directive is often considered the Internet Privacy Global Standard, but this in only partially true. While the European Union sets a formal global standard, the 1995 Data Protection Directive has two loopholes that Internet companies exploit to set the effective global standard for internet privacy. The United States and Ireland have become safe harbours for Internet companies to collect and process Europeans’ personal data without being subject to the stringent laws and regulations of some continental European countries. Companies, and not the European Union or governments, are the ones that set the effective global standard of internet privacy.     

A Pacifist Approach to Countering Extremism

ABSTRACT

How should a pacifist approach both extremism and counter-extremism? Through exploring definitions of extremism alongside pacifist scholarship, the paper argues that pacifism itself appears to be “extreme”, allowing extremism to be examined from an extreme perspective. But does counter-extremism engender peace? The paper identifies three dominant definitions of counter-extremism: a promotion of nonviolence, of liberal democratic values, and of tolerance. While counter-extremism appears to engender peace, the paper exposes the ways in which countering extremism promotes violence: a “nonviolence” which legitimises state violence; an ethnocentric homogenisation of liberal democratic values which alienates ethnic minorities, and a narrow sphere of tolerated pluralism which transforms non-hegemonic values into threats. The paper argues that to promote peace, pacifists must contribute to the reconceptualisation of extremism. The paper suggests that instead of depicting challenges to hegemonic values as “antagonisms” that threaten, agonistic spaces are required such that “extremism” need not be countered but encountered.     

试析纳扎尔巴耶夫的民族政策观

本文研究哈萨克斯坦总统纳扎尔巴耶夫对本国独立以来民族政策和社会发展政策的阐释。他的认识涉及对苏联时期解决民族问题的政策评价,认为苏联时期没有解决好联盟中央和地方的利益关系。批评苏联时期的极权主义思想,总结其民族政策的经验教训,提出建构哈萨克斯坦多民族的公民身份认同,反对滥用民族自决理论。本文认为,哈萨克斯坦实施民族和睦团结的政策措施对中亚地区的稳定是有益的,对中国边疆地区的稳定和周边贸易发展将产生积极作用。     

The Backbone Structure of Audience Networks: A New Approach to Comparing Online News Consumption Across Countries

Measures of audience overlap between news sources give us information on the diversity of people’s media diets and the similarity of news outlets in terms of the audiences they share. This provides a way of addressing key questions like whether audiences are increasingly fragmented. In this article, we use audience overlap estimates to build networks that we then analyze to extract the backbone—that is, the overlapping ties that are statistically significant. We argue that the analysis of this backbone structure offers metrics that can be used to compare news consumption patterns across countries, between groups, and over time. Our analytical approach offers a new way of understanding audience structures that can enable more comparative research and, thus, more empirically grounded theoretical understandings of audience behavior in an increasingly digital media environment.     

关于重建全球战略稳定的理论思考

冷战时期,以“反导条约”和核不扩散条约为标志的世界战略稳定,虽然主要适应了美苏争霸世界的需要,但对防止核武器扩散和爆发核战争,维护世界的和平、安全与稳定起了重要作用。冷战后,特别是美国宣布退出“反导条约”后,国际安全形势发生了重大变化,谋求建立新的全球战略稳定是各国面临的一个重大课题。从长远看,当前美国的极端单边主义安全战略没有出路。国际社会在平等和相互尊重基础上加强合作,才是确保世界战略稳定和各国安全的正确选择。     

Beyond Instrumentalism: A Relational Approach to Negotiation

Instrumentalism, the philosophy that rational people will behave in ways that promote self‐interest, is often the default assumption that scholars and practitioners rely upon when interpreting and predicting human behavior in negotiations. Instrumentalism, however, need not be the only lens through which negotiators and negotiations are viewed. In this article, we discuss some of the problems associated with too heavy a reliance on instrumentalism and propose an alternative relational approach, one in which negotiators see themselves as agents embedded in a system of relationships, who are motivated to understand and advance the welfare of others. We discuss some of the characteristics that differentiate negotiators who adopt a relational versus instrumental approach and invite scholars and practitioners to consider the implications of viewing negotiations through a more relational lens.     

Beyond ADR: A Systems Approach to Conflict Management

Given the centrality of emotion and emotional communication to conflict interaction, the lack of attention to emotion in mediation is particularly surprising. This essay suggests that mediation practice can – and should – be informed by the wealth of existing theory and research on emotion in the social sciences. The authors define emotion and argue the centrality of its place in conflict. They address issues germane to the cognitive, expressive, and physiological aspects of emotion and their relevance to mediatio practice. Within each area, they discuss the implications of the emotional experience of the disputant and the emotional experience of the mediator.     

解读“超级恐怖主义”——《超级恐怖主义:新世纪的新挑战》介评

“9·11事件”使国际恐怖主义成为国际关系议事日程中的关注焦点 ,也成为国际关系学界的研究重点。在全球化浪潮深入发展的 2 1世纪 ,国际恐怖主义将发生哪些变化并以何种形式表现出来 ?它将给人类社会带来怎样的威胁 ?国际社会应该如何应对 ?针对这些关乎国际安全未来发展的重大问题 ,各国的安全问题专家都在进行不断的研究与探索。2 0 0 2年 12月 ,俄罗斯政治研究中心组织俄罗斯联邦安全局、对外情报局、外交部和安全会议的专家编纂出版了《超级恐怖主义 :新世纪的新挑战》① ,以“俄罗斯的视角”对上述重要问题做出了自己的解读。首先 ,…     

日本民主党对华政策走向探析

日本民主党主政后为实现长期执政的目标,在强化对华关系的同时,也会赋予对华外交更多战略性的色彩.然民主党既和自民党同为保守政党,也坚持把对华关系定位为以日美同盟为基轴的对外关系整体的一个局部,加上日本国内外诸要素和自身条件的制约,其对华政策的转换不仅空间有限,且也存在着不确定性.     

A Visit to New Zealand

The financial crisis of 1949 threatened to bankrupt Britain and destroy the American economic and political system constructed after 1945. The US government was unable to respond effectively to this challenge. Truman's administration was split, as the Treasury and State Departments advocated diametrically opposing responses. Only the secret British decision to devalue sterling, a judgement not shared with the Americans until much later, stopped Washington from offering aid packages to London that would have totally changed US postwar foreign, economic and strategic policies. Therefore, this episode questions the assertion that national security concerns dominated the American government in the early Cold War.     

A Visit to New Zealand

The focus of this article is the author's end-of-career term as South African ambassador to Australia (1988-92) and, especially, the official visits he paid New Zealand during that time. Not only does the article show what one foreign service officer did in a given historical context, thereby helping address the age-old question of what it is exactly that diplomats do, but it reveals that public perceptions of diplomats and diplomacy can differ markedly from the private reality.     

试析新世纪的越南经济

一、近年来越南经济发展概况跨入21世纪以来 ,越南经济呈现新一轮高增长趋势 ,使之成为东南亚地区乃至亚洲经济的一个引人注目的亮点。近年来越南经济发展的成就主要体现在以下方面 :1.国民经济增长迅速2000～2003年 ,越南经济出现了直线上升的增长态势 :2000年 ,其GDP增长率从前两年经济低潮时期的4.4 %上升为6.7% ;2001年 ,在本地区各国经济再次出现严重波动的情况下 ,越南的GDP增长率仍然保持在6.8 %的地区最好水平 ;2002年 ,其GDP增长率进一步达到7.04% ;2003年 ,越南经济克服了伊拉克战争和SARS疫情影响 ,继续保持了快速稳定的增…     

总体国家安全观视阈下的虚假信息研究

虚假信息作为信息操控的重要手段,在国际关系中存在已久。随着信息全球化的深入发展,跨境虚假信息日益泛滥。国际关系学界对于虚假信息的研究尚处于初步阶段,系统性和理论性不足,且充斥西方中心主义思维,甚至成为西方操纵的舆论武器。实际上,虚假信息作为新兴的复合型国家安全威胁,呈现出传统安全与非传统安全交织的特征,是困扰国际社会的一种新生现象。虚假信息对中国国家安全也构成严峻挑战,危害人民安全、政治安全和国家利益。新冠肺炎疫情下的“虚假信息疫情”将这一危害暴露无遗。虚假信息的泛滥有个人心理和社会需求层面的原因,也受信息技术及政治经济利益驱动的影响。当前,虚假信息政治化倾向严重,对国家安全乃至国际安全的挑战日趋复杂严峻。因此,我们必须以贯彻落实总体国家安全观为目标,强化虚假信息治理,有效防范化解虚假信息安全风险。