Comparing the Validity of Prospective,Retrospective, and Official Onset for Different Offending Categories

Using data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a prospective longitudinal study of 411 London males, the main aim of this research is to compare the age of onset of six types of offenses according to different methods of measurement – prospective self-reports, retrospective self-reports, and official records – and also to explore self-reported and official onset sequences. Results showed that ages of onset reported in retrospective accounts generally tended to be higher than those reported prospectively. Agreement rates between prospective and retrospective accounts were lowest for minor forms of offending, and highest for more serious offenses such as theft of vehicles. Males with heavy substance use habits were less likely to report the same age of onset retrospectively compared with prospectively. Denial rates were substantial in all comparisons, particularly for minor forms of offending. Comparisons between self-reported and official measures of onset revealed that there was a greater degree of agreement between the two measures for serious offenses. Whereas self-reported onset sequences suggested that minor crimes were committed before more serious offenses, official onset sequences suggested the reverse. The findings show that retrospective reports are not suitable to address research questions requiring detailed information (i.e., most criminal career parameters: age of onset, frequency, age of termination, etc.), for studying minor forms of offending, and for samples of individuals with serious substance use habits. Furthermore, official measures of offending can also produce misleading results, particularly when studying minor forms of offending.     

Juvenile-Perpetrated Sex Crimes: Patterns of Offending and Predictors of Violence

Criminal record reviews were conducted on 126 juveniles arrested for sex offenses against children (n = 62) or peers and adults (n = 64). Peer/adult offenders were found more consistently to offend against females who were strangers or acquaintances, more frequently to commit their crimes in a public area, and more often to act in a group with other offenders. Peer/adult offenders were also more likely to commit the sex crime in association with other criminal activity, and they evidenced higher overall levels of aggression and violence. In general, the aggression of child molesters tended to intimidation rather than physical force, whereas the aggression of peer/adult offenders was more injurious, and perhaps gratuitous. Violence in peer/adult offenders, but not of child molesters, was predicted by the interactive influence of the victim's gender, age, and level of resistance.     

Self-Reported and Official Offending from Age 10 to Age 56

In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, over 400 London males have been followed up from age 8 to age 48 in face-to-face interviews and up to age 56 in criminal records. About 42 % of the males were convicted up to age 56. During five age ranges up to age 47, 94 % of the males admitted at least one of eight offenses, in comparison with 31 % who were convicted for at least one of these offenses in these age ranges. The prevalence of offending, and the number of offenses committed, decreased steadily after age 18 according to both convictions and self-reports. On average, there were 38 self-reported offenses per conviction, and this ratio also decreased with age. Convicted males self-reported 25 offenses per conviction on average. It is concluded that the “scaling-up factor” from convictions to self-reported offenses is very important, especially in evaluating the effectiveness of intervention programs.     

Sex Differences in Trajectories of Offending Among Puerto Rican Youth

Although sex is one of the strongest correlates of crime, contentions remain regarding the necessity of sex-specific theories of crime. The current study examines delinquent trajectories across sex among Puerto Rican youth socialized in two different cultural contexts (Bronx, United States and San Juan, Puerto Rico). Results indicate: similar substantive offending trajectories across males and females within each cultural context; that males exhibit a higher frequency of offending and higher levels of risk factors for delinquency; and there more similarities than differences in how risk/protective factors relate to patterns of offending across male versus female youth. Study limitations and implications for sex-specific criminological theories are also discussed.     

De Novo Advanced Adult‐Onset Offending: New Evidence from a Population of Federal Correctional Clients

Adult antisocial behavior is almost always predated by delinquency during childhood or adolescence; however, there is also evidence of adult‐onset criminal offending. This study examined this controversial subgroup of offenders using self‐reported and official data from a total population of federal correctional clients selected from the Midwestern United States. Difference of means t‐tests, chi‐square tests, and logistic regression models found that 11.7% of clients had an adult onset of offending and 2.7% of clients (n = 23) had an onset occurring at age 60 years or older. This group—introduced as de novo advanced adult‐onset offenders—had high socioeconomic status, mixed evidence of adverse childhood experiences, and virtually no usage of drugs with the exception of alcohol. These offenders were primarily convicted of social security and white‐collar crimes and evinced remarkably low psychopathology and criminal risk. More research is needed to replicate the phenomenon of de novo advanced adult‐onset offending.     

Punishing the Wicked: Examining the Correlates of Sentence Severity for Convicted Sex Offenders

Objectives

To examine the correlates of sentence severity for convicted sex offenders under sentencing guidelines, contrasted with individuals convicted of non-sexual, violent offenses.

Methods

Drawing on 7 years of data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing, we utilize a logit-negative binomial hurdle model to examine the predictors of incarceration and sentence length, and an accompanying Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition of the gap in sentencing outcomes between the groups. We then implement a quantile regression framework to examine variation in effects across the distribution of sentence lengths. All analyses are contrasted with a matched sample of violent offenders to consider the extent to which estimated associations are unique to sex offenders.

Results

The analyses suggest several predictors of sentence severity for sex offenders, and that these predictors vary between the incarceration and sentence length decisions. In comparing effects for sex and matched violent offenders, divergent effects were observed for both case and offender characteristics. An Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition suggests that differences in the coefficient estimates account for less than one-fifth of the gap in average sentencing outcomes between sex and violent offenders. Subsequent quantile regressions indicate that these effects vary considerably over the sentence length distribution in ways that are not captured or obscured by the hurdle models.

Conclusions

The predictors of sentence severity for sex offenders, and points of divergence from violent offenders, are congruent with the notion that judges utilize crime-specific stereotypes in arriving at sentencing decisions. Further, the application of quantile regression following point-based estimation can reveal meaningful patterns in sentencing disparities.

     

增强公务员培训实效性的路径选择

公务员培训是提高公务员队伍素质的一项重要工作,而实效性是检验培训质量的标志。针对公务员培训中实效性不强的问题,应从把握公务员培训特点、创新培训理念、明确培训目标、整合培训方式方法、改革培训体制、提高培训内生动力等方面入手,切实增强公务员培训的实效性。     

A Criminal Career Study of the Continuity and Discontinuity of Sex Offending during the Adolescence-Adulthood Transition: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Incarcerated Youth

Longitudinal research has seriously challenged assumptions that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are characterized by high level of dangerousness, mental health problems, and crime specialization in sex offenses. The current study examines the longitudinal pattern of offending among a sample of JSO and a sample of juvenile nonsex offenders. The research design includes longitudinal data over a nine-year period allowing the examination of offending patterns and the crime mix from age 12 to age 23. The findings highlight that, while JSO are prone to persist offending in adulthood, there is limited continuity of sex offending. Further, the findings stress the importance of taking into account nonsexual juvenile delinquency, more specifically, youth violence, to make a better assessment of early adult offending outcomes of JSO.     

对公务员实绩考核增加“服务增加值”指标的思考

在科学发展观和正确政绩观的引导下,公务员实绩考核指标体系应增加内涵,增强导向性,以破解当前公务员实绩考核所面临的“考得不真,核得也不实”的尴尬。“服务增加值”是借鉴企业管理中的“经济增加值”而来的,它衡量了公务员减除“实绩成本”后,为广大人民创造真正福祉的多少。该指标的设置最根本的是给公务员注入了创造服务价值的动力和激情,变目标控制为目标追求,体现了行政管理中的人文精神和理念。     

The Intergenerational Transmission of Violent Offending

The current study examines the intergenerational transmission and concentration of violent offending using conviction data of 3,440 persons from three consecutive generations from the Dutch Transfive study. Violent offending is more concentrated within nuclear families than non-violent offending, and the intergenerational transmission of violent offending is stronger than the intergenerational transmission of non-violent offending. Due to the low prevalence of violent offending by women, only transmission from father to son is studied. Paternal violent offending before the birth of the son does not increase the son’s risk to become violent, while paternal violent offending during the son’s childhood and adolescence does. These results suggest that exposure to paternal violence plays an important role in the intergenerational transmission of violent offending.     

Assessing Correlates of Onset, Escalation, Deescalation, and Desistance of Delinquent Behavior

This article evaluates the utility of social development model constructs toassess the correlates of onset, escalation, deescalation, and desistance ofdelinquent behavior, from age 12 to age 15, using a dynamic classificationapproach. Dynamic classification places individuals into categories basedon changes in levels of delinquent behavior over time. These analyses assessthe extent to which specific constructs are associated with changes in thedelinquency status of individuals. Constructs of the social developmentmodel (SDM), including opportunities for conventional involvement, skillsfor conventional involvement, rewards for conventional involvement,proactive family management, bonding to conventional society, opportunitiesfor antisocial involvement, antisocial interactions, perceived rewards forantisocial involvement, and norms against drug use, were significantlyassociated with change in delinquent behavior over time. Many of theconstructs were particularly salient in distinguishing between youths whoremained involved in delinquency and youths who deescalated or desisted fromdelinquent behavior during this period. Implications for preventiveinterventions and criminological theory are discussed.     

The Contingent Effects of Fatherhood on Offending

A growing body of research assesses the relationship between fatherhood and desistance. Qualitative studies typically find fatherhood reduces offending, especially substance use; yet, quantitative studies have produced mixed findings. Guided by life-course theory, this study hypothesizes that fatherhood affects certain kinds of offending and fatherhood’s effects on offending are most pronounced among fathers who reside with their child. To test our hypotheses, NLSY97 data are employed along with fixed-effects regression analyses to estimate the relationship between fatherhood and offending, while controlling for time-varying and time-stable competing factors. Periods of fatherhood are associated with reductions in licit and illicit substance use but not other kinds of offending, and these effects are considerably stronger in periods in which fathers resided in the same household as their child. By contrast, residential fatherhood is associated with reductions in property offending and arrest. These results confirm the findings of qualitative research in that fatherhood, particularly residential fatherhood, reduces substance use but has weaker effects on other kinds of deviance.     

Russia: The Official Church Chooses the State

The author argues that relations with the state are still much more important to the Moscow Patriarchate than relations with its own flock.     

Young Adult Offending: Intersectionality of Gender and Race

It is an accepted criminological fact that gender and race affect involvement in crime. What has been examined less frequently is the effect of intersectionality of gender and race across the early life course. This research uses Delinquency in a Birth Cohort II: Philadelphia, 1958 to examine the longer term effects on crime of intersectionality during the adolescent and young adult portions of the life course. Findings indicate that intersectionality of gender and race is fundamental for young adults. It is argued that multiracial feminism can best explain why intersectionality must be taken into consideration when looking at offending across the early life course.     

The Prevalence and Correlates of Depression and Hopelessness among Sex Offenders Subject to Community Notification and Residence Restriction Legislation

Little research has investigated the prevalence of mood disturbance among sex offenders despite the fact that psychological distress may bear some relationship to community reintegration, and ultimately, recidivism. All offenders on New Jersey’s sex offender Internet registry were mailed surveys about their experiences with, and perceptions of, notification and residence restriction statutes, the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), and the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS). On average, respondents (N = 104) reported mild to moderate levels of depressive symptoms (M _BDI = 17.1) and hopelessness (M _BHS = 6.9). Additionally, offenders who reported being negatively affected by residence restrictions and notification statutes reported higher levels of both depression and hopelessness. Given evidence that sex offender specific legislation may de-stabilize offenders, this research highlights the importance of managing affective states in this population.     

The Impact of Gender Identity on Female Offending: A Quantitative Assessment Using the BSRI

Despite considerable research showing the importance of masculinity in male offending, the role of gender identity in female offending remains unclear. The current study explores the impact of gender identity on female offending among a sample of 843 college women using the Bem Sex Role Inventory and Multiple Problem Behavior Index. The impact of gender identity on rates of general deviance, as well as behaviors typically in high male and female participation, aggression and self-harming, respectively, were examined. Results found that women with masculine identity were more likely to engage in aggression as well as general deviance broadly. Gender identity was not found to impact rates of self-harming.     

Population Size,Age Structure,and Sex Composition Effects on Official Crime in Canada

Canada, along with most other Western, industrialized countries, has experienced a dramatic increase in both the overall volume and the rate of official crime, as well as significant increases in the amount of female crime since the mid-1950's. Several authors have suggested that much of this increase in official crime is related to major demographic fluctuations, such as the post-war “baby-boom.” Specifically, in this paper it is maintained that a large proportion of the increase in the overall amount of crime is due to both absolute as well as relative increases in those segments of the population which have high a priori crime rates.

Using 1957 as a base year, the volume of convictions for criminal offenders in Canada is standardized for population size, age structure, and sex composition effects. It was found that approximately one-half of the increase in volume of crime could be attributed to overall population growth. The impact of age structure and sex composition was not unambiguous, however, with the period 1958–1964 showing a greater sensitivity to these variables than the period 1965–1973.     

Gangs and Violence: Disentangling the Impact of Gang Membership on the Level and Nature of Offending

Objectives

To determine whether membership in youth gangs provides a unique social forum for violence amplification. This study examines whether gang membership increases the odds of violent offending over and above involvement in general delinquent and criminal behavior.

Methods

Five waves of data from a multi-site (seven cities) panel study of over 3,700 youth originally nested within 31 schools are analyzed. We estimate four level repeated measures item response theory models, which include a parameter to differentiate the difference in the log of the expected event-rate for violent offense items to the log of the expected event-rate for nonviolent offense items.

Results

Depending on the comparison group (gang youth, overall sample), periods of active gang membership were associated with a 10 or 21% increase in the odds of involvement in violent incidents. When the sample is restricted to youth who report gang membership during the study, the proportionate increase in the odds of violence associated with gangs is statistically similar for males and females. After youth reported leaving the gang their propensity for violence was not significantly different than comparison group observations, although levels of general offending remain elevated.

Conclusions

While results are limited by the school-based sampling strategy, the importance of gang prevention and intervention programming for violence reduction is highlighted. Preventing youth from gang membership or shortening the length of gang careers through interventions may reduce absolute levels of violence.     

Offending behaviour programmes in the community: The effects on reconviction of three programmes with adult male offenders

Purpose . This study presents the findings of an evaluation of the effect on reconviction of three general offending behaviour programmes in the English and Welsh Probation Service with adult male offenders. Method . The study employed a quasi‐experimental design comparing the reconviction rates of three groups: offenders who were allocated to and completed a programme, offenders allocated to a programme but failed to complete, and a comparison group. Results . The main finding from the analyses indicated that, controlling for salient population factors, the offenders who had completed a programme had a lower rate of reconviction as compared with non‐completers and comparison groups. Additionally, the non‐completers had a higher rate of reconviction than the comparison group. Conclusions . The findings are discussed in light of the extant literature and a range of explanations is presented.     

The Relationship Between Adolescent Physical Abuse and Criminal Offending: Support for an Enduring and Generalized Cycle of Violence

Prospective investigations have demonstrated support for the cycle of violence theory. However, few studies have examined whether or not abuse occurring during adolescence increases the prevalence and frequency of criminal involvement, or explored the long-term consequences of such victimization. In addition, there has been little investigation of whether or not the effects of abuse vary depending on characteristics of the victim, such as sex, race/ethnicity, age, family structure or income. Using data from the National Youth Survey, this study demonstrates that adolescent physical abuse has immediate and enduring effects on the prevalence and frequency of a variety of self-reported offenses, including violent and non-violent crimes, drug use and intimate partner violence. Furthermore, the study reveals that while victimization increases the prevalence of offending for victims of varying backgrounds, the frequency of offending is moderated by family income, area of residence, and family structure. Implications for prevention are discussed.