从重视要素投入到注重制度建设——经济增长理论的发展脉络及其启示

经济增长理论的发展经历了非形式化的思想火花、偏重资本要素投入、致力于寻求可持续增长的发动机、注重制度建设等几个阶段。就我国经济增长而言,经济增长理论发展脉络蕴含如下启示:一是要摆脱依靠投入求增长的粗放型发展模式,二是在结构转换潜力和后发优势日益枯竭时,必须注重通过制度建设为经济可持续增长输入新的动力。     

“资源诅咒”与经济增长困境:结构升级视角下的研究

基于我国省级面板数据,通过拓展经典理论,重点关注了"资源诅咒"效应对区域经济结构升级的抑制作用。研究表明,资源丰裕地区资源产业的发展反而使要素累积非常有限,由此对产业结构升级造成不利影响。分区域比较发现,由于技术等方面条件的落后,高资源禀赋地区中间品制造业行业越发展,对上游资源禀赋的粗放开发利用越多;反而发展劳动力密集型行业,能更好地达到规避"资源诅咒"效应的目的。     

西部大开发的瓶颈因素是人力资源问题

经济增长是由要素来支持的,要素的优化组合和合理配置决定了经济增长的速度和质量。从总体上看,西部经济增长的要素构成要弱于东南沿海发达地区;但就西部自身来看,经济增长的要素构成又有相对优势和相对劣势的方面。经济增长有六大要素:资源、土地、资金、技术、环境、人才。从资源方面来看,中西部资源能源富集、发展潜力很大。水能资源可开发量占全国总量的72.3％,45种主要矿产资源的储量占全国     

经济增长模式转型需要注意的几个问题

增长方式是过去长时间沿用下来的概念，主要是指效率高低、消耗大小等意思。增长模式这个概念除了上述涵义外，还有要素组合和竞争优势等涵义。“增长模式”包含了“增长方式”的内容。又多了一些涵义。对我国经济增长模式可以作这样的描述：独特的要素组合加改革开放。使我国的增长模式呈现出低成本竞争优势。但这一优势并不能概括中国经济的全貌，从总体上看，中国经济正面临着向以技术进步为基础的新竞争优势转型的紧迫挑战。当前和今后相当长的一个时期。应当优先和熏点关注以下几个问题。     

“包容性增长”:体现科学发展的新理念

"包容性增长"理念是胡锦涛总书记在2010年9月16日召开的第五届亚太经合组织人力资源开发部长级会议上强调表述的观点,指出"实现包容性增长,切实解决经济发展中出现的社会问题,为推进贸易和投资自由但强化了经济发展与社会运行的协调,经济要素与社会构成的其它要素之间的协凋,而且更强化了经济本身发展速度和发展方式的协调,因为只有完成这协调,经济与社会的协调性和均衡性才能最终实现.     

战略重点的转变

新的积累方式与综合要素生产率的提高。经济增长离不开新的资本形成。资本形成,GDP比率从改革开放初期的30%稳步上升,近几年已超过40%,根据亚洲"四小龙"的经验,投资率达到40%是个高限,因此,未来的出路是如何提高投资的效率,通过资本积累,提高综合要素生产率,保证经济增长的可持续性。综合要素生产率增长的潜在意义在于:其一,新技术的快车总是满载着新型资本和中间产品;其二,为了从技术进步当中受益,教育水平应该从深度和广     

中国经济增长的可持续性探析

中国近期的经济增速出现一定程度回调,但从长期看,仍具备支撑经济较快增长的有利条件:中国具备保持经济持续增长的物质基础和体制优势;庞大的国内市场、较高的资本积累速度、不断增长的人力资本和创新潜力以及经济改革与结构调整的深化,为经济增长提供了强大内生动力;积极参与国际分工与全球治理,将为中国赢得新的国际竞争优势。有效应对挑战,推动经济持续增长的关键在于实现发展理念、发展方式、发展动力和体制机制的转型。     

FDI对陕西省经济增长影响的实证分析

运用计量经济模型,测定外商直接投资对陕西经济增长的主要作用和对经济中其他部门的外溢作用,结果表明,陕西省目前经济增长很大程度上依靠国内资本和廉价劳动力的推动,外商投资的作用表现并不显著.但外商直接投资是更有效率的资本,其所带来的外溢效应使它的单位贡献率是国内投资的五倍,并且外商直接投资对于陕西省经济结构的升级转型具有非常大的促进作用,其总体贡献率不如国内投资的原因在于外商直接投资所占比重不大.陕西经济的发展应该立足干充分利用国内资本,同时要在提升国内资本技术水平的基础上,大力引进外来投资,充分发挥外资的技术外溢作用,最终实现经济的跨越式增长.     

提高全要素生产率 引领经济发展新常态

<正>在今年的政府工作报告中,李克强总理将"提高全要素生产率"作为平衡稳增长与调结构的重要举措提出来。"全要素生产率"这一概念,由美国经济学家罗伯特·M·索洛(Robert·M·Solow)最早提出,即总产量与全部要素投入量之比。反映的是生产活动在一定时间内的效率。全要素生产率并非所有要素的生产率,"全"的意思是经济增长中不能分别归因于有形生产要素(如资本、劳动、土地)增长的那部分。也就是说,全要素生产率是资本、劳动、土地     

深化开放型经济的体制机制改革

正改革开放尤其是"入世"以来,我国抓住国际产业转移的黄金机遇,积极引进外资,大力发展出口导向型经济,取得了令人瞩目的成就,我国已成为全球第二引资大国、第一出口大国及第二大经济体。但随着国内外发展环境变化及国内要素禀赋逐步提升,我国开放型经济原有发展模式遭遇的各种问题及瓶颈约束日益明显。     

Impact of trade and investment on income surge in Bangladesh: Evidence from trade liberalization regime

Trade and investment are crucial drivers of economic growth. Successful execution of trade and investment policy can elevate a developing country to a sustained growth path and make it self-reliant. Bangladesh implemented a trade liberalization policy in the 1980s, deviating much from its conservative trade policy. This article assesses the impacts of trade, investment in physical as well as human capital, and a few trade policy variables on income surge for the liberalized regime. The econometric analysis finds that export, import, and domestic investment stimulate income. The impact of foreign investment is not conducive. Public spending on education also contributes to the income surge. Among the policy variables, trade openness and currency depreciation produce a beneficial impact. Population growth retards economic growth. The baseline results hold in the estimations involving several specifications of variables and testified as robust. The article views that a comprehensive approach to trade and investment policy would ensure the comparative advantage of trade and the well-being of Bangladesh.     

Foreign direct investment,information and communication technology,trade, and economic growth in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries: An empirical insight

Information and communication technology (ICT) is one of the key sectors promoting economic growth in the present modern era of globalization. It promotes technological advances in global communications as well as production techniques and contributes to economic growth and development. Most of the economic activities, including international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), are largely dependent on various modern sources of ICT. The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between FDI, ICT, trade, and per capita gross domestic product growth across the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) developing nations from 2000 to 2017. We have used different panel estimates such as fully modified ordinary least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares, Fisher–Johansen cointegration test, panel autoregressive distributed lag, and Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality. We found existence of unidirectional causality from FDI to ICT and bidirectional causal relationship between trade and ICT. The outcome of our study suggests policy recommendations for improving the standards of ICT, specifically focusing on economic growth, trade openness, and facilitation of foreign investment in the SAARC countries.     

Is the causal relation between foreign direct investment,trade, and economic growth complement or substitute? The case of African countries

This study examines causal nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth for 25 African countries within a model that also takes into consideration trade openness using more recent panel data set over the period 1980–2018. We used panel bootstrapping cointegration techniques that account for cross‐sectional dependence to test whether there is a long‐run cointegration relationship or not. The Granger causality approach is employed to conduct predictive analysis among the panel series. Our findings indicate the presence of a long‐run equilibrium nexus between the variables, and we found a bidirectional causality between foreign direct investment, trade openness, and economic growth. This study provides an insight for governments and policymakers in this region to restructure FDI and trade policies in such a way that its positive spillover would spread across the rural areas and local firms, thereby leading to an all‐inclusive sustainable economic growth and development of African countries in the long run.     

Equality and efficiency: The illusory tradeoff

Abstract. Scholars and policy makers have traditionally assumed that nations face a tradeoff between income equality and economic efficiency. Greater equality is believed to reduce investment and dampen work incentives. A heterodox view suggests that a more egalitarian distribution of income may have beneficial efficiency effects by augmenting consumer demand and/or encouraging workers to cooperate in upgrading competitiveness. This paper offers an empirical assessment of the relationship between equality and efficiency, based on cross-sectional data from 17 advanced industrialized economies over the period 1974–90. The comparative evidence indicates no adverse impact of greater equality on investment or work effort, nor on growth of productivity or output, trade balances, inflation, or unemployment. On the contrary, higher levels of equality are associated with stronger productivity growth and trade performance, and possibly with higher investment and lower inflation.     

Which among twin deficits hypothesis,twin divergence,and Ricardian's equivalence hold in a developing country?

South Africa witnesses the perpetual increase in budget deficit that hampers its ability for inclusive economic growth while on the other hand facing trade balance instability. To realise stability in the economy and sustainable yet inclusive economic growth, the two deficits, namely, budget and trade deficits, should be closely monitored. The study examined the empirical relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in South Africa in the postapartheid era, employing time series data from 1994 to 2016. The autoregressive distribution lag approach was employed to examine the existence of a cointegration between the set of variables, both in the short‐ and the long‐run relationships and together with the error correction model. It was found that there is a significant and positive relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in the short run. However, in the long run, the Ricardian's equivalence holds in South Africa. The study recommends that policies aimed at reducing budget and trade deficits should take into account inflation and aim to increase some macroeconomic variables such as fixed investment to ultimately achieve sustainable economic growth.     

The effect of trade openness on economic growth: Some empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on economic growth in a panel of five emerging market economies, covering the data period from 1993 to 2016. Based on the panel estimation methods, the empirical results confirm the long‐run relationship among trade openness, economic growth, financial development, inflation, labour force, and technology, whereas the findings of long‐run elasticities show that trade openness has a positive considerable impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non‐causality tests indicate the presence of a bidirectional causality between economic growth and inflation and a unidirectional causality that runs from economic growth to trade openness and economic growth to financial development in the short run. Finally, the findings suggested that trade openness plays a substantial role in promoting economic growth while also promoting economic development in these five emerging market economies.     

The Impacts of State Capital Management Programs on State Economic Performance

Although the normative literature advocates systematic capital management practices, empirical studies investigating the tangible benefits of these practices are rare. Based on previous findings that public investment affects economic growth, this study extends the model of government spending and economic growth to investigate the effect of systematic capital management programs on state economic performance. Using panel data from 1997 to 2004 and the Government Performance Project's data on state capital management practices, the empirical results indicate that highly systematic capital management programs positively alter the relationship between the state's capital spending levels and the state's economic growth rate.     

China in East Asia: The process and implications of regionalization

This paper assesses the impact of foreign direct investment on China's integration into the East Asian regional economy. The phenomenal growth of investment since 1992 has both benefited from, and also fuelled, the growth of local autonomy in post‐Mao China. The central state's ability to control the process of integration has subsequently been significantly undermined as the relationship between the local and the international becomes ever more important. While the tendency to emphasize low cost production advantages has attracted considerable inward investment in some areas, impressive short‐term growth rates may hide less beneficial long‐term consequences for China's position within East Asia, and for the trajectory of China's development in general.     

Capital Budgeting and Management Practices: Smoothing Out Rough Spots in Government Outlays

Public capital budgeting and management literature recommends long‐term capital and fiscal planning practices to prevent large fluctuations in outlays caused by fiscal stresses. This study extends the literature by examining the effects of long‐term capital planning and management practices such as the use of a capital budget, separate impact analyses, and the use of bond financing and dedicated revenue sources on capital spending volatility. The empirical results confirm that several of these practices smooth out state government capital outlays that vary because of socio‐economic and financial factors.     

Effect of foreign direct investment,remittances, and foreign aid on economic growth: Evidence from two emerging South Asian economies

This paper analyzes the effect of foreign direct investment, remittances, and official development assistance on economic growth in India and Sri Lanka. The study uses annual time series data of both countries for the period 1980–2016. In order to find the short‐run and long‐run relationship among the variables, we use Granger causality test and vector error correction model. We also carry out a vector decomposition analysis to predict the forecast variance error of the future periods and impulse response function to analyze the effect of shocks in the independent variables on that of the dependent variable. Our results indicate that foreign direct investment and remittances have a significant impact on economic growth in India, whereas in Sri Lanka, foreign aid and remittances play an important role in enhancing economic growth.