Partisan schemas and economic voting: The federal budget deficit and the 1988 presidential election

This paper considers the issue of the budget deficit and its influence on the 1988 presidential election. Specifically, we are concerned with the role of partisan economic schemas, and the possibility that many voters might have supported the incumbent Republicansbecause of the deficit problem (reasoning that the GOP, regardless of the failures of the previous 8 years, was the best party to reduce government spending). We find that the deficit issue, despite its high salience, did not have an overwhelming impact on the 1988 race, but what effect it did have apparently favored the Republicans. We demonstrate that schematic voters concerned about the deficit were, indeed, more likely to support George Bush over Michael Dukakis. We conclude by discussing the importance and limits of partisan schemas in explaining economic voting.     

The Politics of Federal Technology Policy: 1980–1988

This paper examines the politics of federal initiatives in technology during the period 1980–1988 that promote economic competitiveness. It finds that the ideological consistency of these new initiatives with the prevailing political climate, and the presence of business constituencies for technology are key to the adoption of new technology initiatives. In the absence of a strong business interest, agency politics and efforts dealing with the budget deficit dominate. Progress by new technology policy initiativesfbunders m is incremental at best. This paper also discusses the trend toward "industry-led" technology policy.     

Which among twin deficits hypothesis,twin divergence,and Ricardian's equivalence hold in a developing country?

South Africa witnesses the perpetual increase in budget deficit that hampers its ability for inclusive economic growth while on the other hand facing trade balance instability. To realise stability in the economy and sustainable yet inclusive economic growth, the two deficits, namely, budget and trade deficits, should be closely monitored. The study examined the empirical relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in South Africa in the postapartheid era, employing time series data from 1994 to 2016. The autoregressive distribution lag approach was employed to examine the existence of a cointegration between the set of variables, both in the short‐ and the long‐run relationships and together with the error correction model. It was found that there is a significant and positive relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in the short run. However, in the long run, the Ricardian's equivalence holds in South Africa. The study recommends that policies aimed at reducing budget and trade deficits should take into account inflation and aim to increase some macroeconomic variables such as fixed investment to ultimately achieve sustainable economic growth.     

The Politics of Fiscal Austerity: Implications for the United States

As austerity becomes the new normal for advanced nations, questions are raised about whether nations can make the hard choices necessary to bring about a sustainable fiscal future. The political defeat experienced by so many European governments undertaking fiscal consolidations points to the vulnerabilities that leaders will face. This article shows that how some Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations have survived the daunting politics of fiscal consolidation by timing actions for periods of economic recovery and political honeymoons following elections and by pursuing deficit reduction strategies that emphasize broad sweeping changes yielding high potential for dramatic economic gains over the longer term. Unlike many European nations today, the seemingly endless appetite for US treasuries by worldwide markets give the United States the luxury of choosing to begin deficit reduction only when the economy strengthens. However, the absence of market pressure also reduces the sense of urgency, consigning national leaders to create internal crises such as the 2012 “fiscal cliff” to force their own hand. While the polarized politics characterizing our party system does not bode well for concerted fiscal action, divided government carries the potential for spreading political risks and promoting more sustainable fiscal outcomes, as it has in our recent history and in other nations as well.     

The change in aggregate budget behavior in the 1990s: a cointegration-error correction model analysis

Using data from 1955 to 2005, the estimates presented imply a long-run equilibrium relation between U.S. federal government revenues and expenditures, but one that is consistent with a continuous expansion in the deficit. There is evidence of a structural break that led to deficit reduction and surpluses from 1996 to 2001, which coincides with several noteworthy economic and political outcomes including the only time when a Democratic administration and Republican Congress were in power simultaneously. The results support the view of a long-run deficit bias in federal budget decision-making. Absent behavior similar to that of the late 1990s, a change in budget rules may be needed to avoid the large deficits forecasted under current law.     

The politics of social spending after the Great Recession: The return of partisan policy making

Prior research shows that the effect of partisanship on social expenditure declined over time in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries. In this article, the author argues that the 2007/2008 recession resulted in the reemergence of partisan policy making in social spending. This was a result of mainstream parties needing to respond to the growing challenge from nonmainstream parties as well as demonstrating that they responded to the economic crisis by offering different policy solutions. Using a panel of 23 OECD countries, the author shows that since the Great Recession, partisan effects on social spending are once again significant. These effects are more likely to be observed where the salience of the Left–Right dimension is higher. In accordance with classic theories of economic policy making, left‐wing governments are more likely to increase social spending when unemployment is higher and right‐wing governments restrain social expenditure when the budget deficit is greater.     

Economic policy, intergenerational equity, and the Social Security Trust Fund buildup

For the next 75 years, the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) system is projected to be close to in balance, on average. For approximately the next 40 years, under current projections, the combined OASDI Trust Fund is expected to continually have excesses of income over outgo, creating a buildup that will peak in 2030 at about +12 1/2 trillion (roughly 23 percent of the gross national product). Thereafter, the system is projected to be in annual deficit continually until the trust fund is exhausted in 2051. This article focuses on two fundamental issues that must be understood if the potential economic consequences of this buildup are to be evaluated properly. The first issue deals with the fact that the nature of Federal economic policy during the buildup period will determine the ultimate economic impact of the buildup. The second issue concerns the effect of the buildup, and its disposition, on the Social Security program's treatment of one generation of workers compared with another. If a fund is actually accumulated as projected, part of the retirement benefits of the "baby-boom" generation will, in effect, be self-financed. If, however, that fund is used for other purposes--directly or indirectly--future cohorts of workers will be required to fully finance benefits promised to the baby-boom retirees.     

The voter as juror: Attributing responsibility for economic conditions

One assumption of Key's reward-punishment theory that has attracted comparatively little attention is that voters hold the incumbent party responsible for all manner of economic fluctuations. A brief review of the survey literature in economic voting indicates that this assumption is in need of revision. The handful of existing studies in political science on responsibility attribution suffers from a lack of conceptual clarity and a failure to develop a theory of the attribution process. This paper outlines a model of economic voting in which people act as intuitive jurors using various decision rules to evaluate the evidence surrounding the president's responsibility for national economic problems. The generalizability of the framework and directions for future research are discussed     

Politischer Opportunismus und Haushaltsdefizite in den westdeutschen Bundesländern

This article analyzes fiscal political business cycles in the West-German Länder. By linking the theory of political business cycles with the insights of the theory of economic voting, I argue that the German Länder governments do not have an incentive to raise the budget deficit in order to signal economic competence to the electorate. Despite having an incentive to spend more before an election in order to provide public goods to the voters, governments cannot finance the supply of public goods with higher deficits because voters prefer healthy fiscal policies. An empirical analysis of the West-German Länder between 1970 and 2003 bolsters the theoretical claims. A government that expands the deficit before an election thus experiences a loss in voter support. Consequently, governments tend to reduce the budget deficit in pre-election years.     

Turnover among City Managers: The Role of Political and Economic Change

Executive turnover can have profound effects on city policies, programs, and commitments such as contracting or issuing debt. This article identifies how political changes, reflected in the composition of the city council, and economic changes in the community influence city manager turnover. Analysis of manager turnover patterns in 143 large U.S. cities with council-manager governments from 1987 to 1999 allows us to distinguish "push" and "pull" factors that can induce city managers to leave their jobs. The empirical analysis demonstrates that political conflict and economic development can influence the likelihood that a city manager will exit a community, but these effects can be complex. In particular, the influence of community economic development on turnover includes a temporal dimension not revealed in previous research. We conclude by discussing the findings' implications for career patterns in city management.     

The Congress and fiscal policy

Although the common belief is that the Congress has paid little attention to fiscal policy, the same kinds of political-economic models which have been used to explain presidential budgetary policy may be used equally well to explain congressional budgetary behavior. The Congress' fiscal policy appears to be systematically sensitive to both economic and political factors. Changes in the unemployment rate have a major impact on congressional budgetary policy. As for political factors, the President's lead is followed most closely on revenue proposals and not at all on the expenditure side. The electoral cycle, in particular the off-year congressional election year, is also important; inducing larger deficits and smaller increases in revenues. When the influences on congressional fiscal behavior are compared with those on presidential behavior, the sources of the generally more expansionary congressional fiscal policy are identified. Congressional budget deficits increase in response to increased rates of unemployment but are insensitive to increases in inflation. In contrast, presidential budgets are heavily influenced by inflation and the growth in personal income — increases in each resulting in smaller proposed deficits — as well as by unemployment rates. In years in which both unemployment and inflation are increasing, the combination of the two (assuming a one percentage point change in each) implies an increase in the congressional deficit of $6.7 billion but a decrease in the president's proposed deficit of $2.5 billion. The implications of this study are a challenge to the literature which makes the President the central actor in macro-economic policy.     

Economic and Political Integration Between the North and South of Ireland

A significant coordination deficit exists between the two economies in Ireland, which, if reduced, could bring mutual economic benefits; however, this does not mean that deeper economic integration can be a conduit to the political unification of Ireland. To the extent that economic integration has a political dimension, it should be about reducing the decades of mistrust and even animosity between the two parts of the island.     

Candidate Character vs. The Economy in the 1992 Election

The outcome of the 1992 U.S. presidential election has been explained largely as a function of perceptions of George Bush's economic performance. The economy submerged questions about Bill Clinton's character, awarding the advantage to the Democrat. In this article, we evaluate the effect of economic evaluations along with character attacks on candidate support in the 1992 presidential contest. Claims that the economy submerged character have been somewhat exaggerated. But while character remains an important issue in presidential evaluation, its role in judging candidates cannot be taken at face value. We show that both economic evaluations and character judgments are highly politicized. The findings indicate that those protesting Clinton's character turned almost exclusively to Bush. Those protesting Bush's economic record turned to both Perot and Clinton. Still, the economy did not trump character. The troubles of both major party candidates fueled a strong protest vote that contributed to Perot's strong showing.     

Wisconsin's Budget Deficit: Size, Causes, Remedies, and Consequences

Wisconsin's lawmakers increased spending and cut taxes during the 1990s. Then, in January of 2001, they faced an estimated $2.4 billion budget gap or deficit for the FY 2001–2003 biennium. They cut spending and generated additional revenue by borrowing against future tobacco settlement income. Still, by January of 2002, the estimated deficit had grown by an additional $1.3 billion, and more cutting and borrowing took place. Despite these actions, a $3.5 billion deficit was projected for FY 2003–2005. In this study, the causes of the deficit, the "remedies" selected, and their effects are examined. "Lessons" highlighted by Wisconsin's experience include the risks associated with nonincremental policy making, the high costs of excessive political partisanship, and the corrosive effects of "fiscal brinksmanship."     

Budgeting for Development: The Case of Nigeria

This article evaluates the developmental efforts of the federal government of Nigeria and how these efforts have proceeded during the "boom and bust" cycles that have been a major feature of the Nigerian economy. The unpredictability of resource flows creates uncertainty in resource allocation and capital accumulation. Thus, economic development is subject to the characteristic "boom and bust budgeting," resulting in disastrous delays and cancellations of expenditures and projects. For economic development to continue uninterrupted, Nigeria must develop a core of ability-based, as opposed to needs-based, programs that must be protected from the hazards of boom and bust budgeting and the business cycle.     

The 1990 Budget Package: Redefining the Debate

The debate of budgeting issues in the 1980s culminated in a dramatic change in 1990—the passage of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. The negotiations leading to this agreement considered the status of the deficit and the philosophical shift from "no new taxes" to "fair taxes." It led to changes in direct spending, enforcement of budget targets, timing of the budget, sequesters usage, tax increases, and entitlement reforms.     

民主的经济理论－－公共选择视野下的政治经济互动

文章研究了民主政治与政府经济政策的关系，探讨了赤字下的民主、公民的财政幻觉、政治经济据环、代议制民主的缺陷等问题。     

资本主义代议制民主政治制度的元批判——马克思《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》新释

《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》是多个学科公认的经典名著。但国内外学者对其的解读却往往囿于各自的学科意识,忽视了其作为一篇时事政治评论的创作初衷。基于政治事件史的视角,以马克思《资本论》中成熟的思想作为分析的出发点,能发现马克思在对阶级斗争和国家原理的分析过程中还揭示出了资本主义代议制民主政治制度的本质性缺陷,即"代表"的分裂问题;制度本身无法避免成为保守势力倒转历史车轮的工具;自由主义与民主主义无休止的斗争。这些缺陷使得资本主义国家在周期性经济危机的影响下一直无法摆脱政治困境的周期性反复。当代随着经济危机的反复爆发与萧条的普遍蔓延,各种"煽动者"又开始普遍在资本主义国家政坛上崭露头角,并导致了一系列"黑天鹅"事件的发生。此时重温《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》更应别有一番意趣。     

Don’t Blame the Euro: Historical Reflections on the Roots of the Eurozone Crisis

The article argues that many of the issues that are causing trouble in the eurozone today had long been debated, but not solved, prior to the beginning of the so-called euro crisis. Three thematic examples are used to show this: the decade-long discussion surrounding economic convergence and the question of a transfer union; the dispute over the alleged use of financial mechanisms as a substitute for addressing structural economic weaknesses; and the development of European banking regulation and supervision before the creation of the single currency. Finally, the article argues that even though some of the features of today’s crises – in particular the debt and deficit issues – were outlined at the time of the euro’s introduction, some important recent developments such as the various new operations undertaken by the European Central Bank were not. This should command modesty and cautiousness in the analysis of the evolution of the euro crisis.     

Integration of the Swedish Local Elite: The Role of Professional and Private Networks

This article uses social network data to study the integration of local elites in four Swedish municipalities. Four research questions are asked. First: How integrated are the elites? While the results modify the picture that there are two rather distinct elites in Sweden – that is, a political elite dominated by the labour movement and an economic elite dominated by business and the large business organizations – it is interesting to note that integration between elite spheres is lowest for the relation between politicians and business representatives. To a considerable degree, integration between political and economic elites is indirect, mediated through the administrative elite. The second question is: Are the inner elite circles dominated by the political, economic or administrative elite? The study indicates that local elites in Sweden are strongly dominated by political elites, and also by administrative elites. This is reassuring, since it would indicate a democratic deficit if the structural power of decision making in municipalities resided predominantly in economic actors and administrators. The third question is: What is the role of friendship relations in creating elite integration? The study indicates that private relations among elites both reinforce professional networks and extend them in important ways. The final question is: Is elite integration contingent on political stability and/or the structure of local business? The results are surprisingly stable across the four municipalities, even though the largest distinction was found between elite core and periphery in the politically most stable municipality, which was also the one with the lowest economic diversity.