Central bank independence and inflation revisited

We re-examine the relationship between central bank independence (CBI), proxied by the central bank governor’s turnover rate and an indicator based on central bank laws in place, and inflation using a random coefficient model with the Hildreth-Houck estimator for more than 100 countries in the period 1980 to 2005. We conclude that there exists no general significant negative relation between our indicators of central bank independence and inflation. Central bank independence has a significant effect only in a minority of the countries in our sample.     

Independent central banks, regime type, and fiscal performance: the case of post-communist countries

This article analyzes the effect of central bank independence on fiscal deficits. Previous literature finds a negative relationship between bank independence and deficits in OECD countries. No such relationship is found for developing countries. We argue that independent and conservative central bankers prefer budget discipline due to the long run connection between deficits and inflation and can enforce their preference through interest rate hikes and refusal to lend to the government. The claim, however, is that the legislated independent status of the central bank is cheap talk in the absence of democratic institutions. We test empirically the conditional effect of central bank independence on a sample of 23 democratic and undemocratic post-communist countries from 1990 to 2002. Results show that independent central banks restrain budget deficits only in democracies. Also, democracies that have not granted independence to their central banks have the worst fiscal discipline.     

Reconsidering the principal components of central bank independence: The more the merrier?

We use principal component analysis to reassess the link between different attributes of central bank independence and inflation performance. We suggest that coding problems may account for the fact that almost none of the attributes included in the Cukierman index has a systematic, plausible relationship with inflation. The multi-faceted Cukierman index also seems to be out-performed by a much narrower index focusing solely on policy independence. These findings point to the importance of using public choice analysis to isolate the real problem here: namely, finding specific central bank structures that effectively insulate central bankers from political pressures.     

Variation in central bank independence across countries: Some provisional empirical evidence

In this paper seven hypotheses to explain variation in central bank independence across countries are tested. The predictions based upon the theory that delegation of authority by politicians to the central bank is used as a commitment device are not supported: central bank independence is not higher the larger the employment motivated inflationary bias, the higher political instability or the larger the government debt. Central bank independence is positively related to historical inflation experience and negatively with political instability. We do only find limited support for the view that countries with a universal banking system and countries whose central banks do not regulate financial institutions have more independent central banks.     

Central bank independence and inflation: Corporatism,partisanship, and alternative indices of central bank independence

A well-developed theoretical literature suggests that central bank independence causes low inflation. Empirical work supporting this hypothesis is unsatisfactory, however, for two reasons: statistical analysis has only recently begun to include control variables, and important political variables that are related to inflation have not yet been included; analysis has not yet undertaken a systematic comparison of alternative indices of central bank independence. This paper addresses both weaknesses by testing the explanatory power of eight indices of central bank independence in a political-economic model of inflation. The results suggest that while support for the central bank independence hypothesis survives a relatively inclusive set of control variables, support for the hypothesis is not independent of the particular index upon which analysis relies.     

Economic performance of 'weak' governments and their interaction with central banks and labour: Deficits, economic growth, unemployment and inflation, 1961–1998

Abstract.   Comparative political economists have conventionally claimed that the strength and stability of governments affect policy making and performance, and that what they call 'weak governments'– multiparty, minority and short-lived governments – show poorer economic performance. This article tests this and related hypotheses on deficits, economic growth, unemployment and inflation by examining data from 17 OECD countries. I find that there is generally little evidence to indicate that so-called 'weak governments', when considered independently, produce poorer performance than strong ones. However, the effects of different government types are partly contingent on central bank independence and labour organization. When central banks are independent, coalition governments exhibit better inflation and economic growth performance than one-party governments, but the opposite happens when central banks are dependent. I attempt an explanation for these relationships. I also find that independent central banks, under certain conditions, lead to lower growth and higher inflation. Thus, some of the benefits of central bank independence are context-specific, depending on other political-economic factors.     

Median Voter Preferences,Central Bank Independence and Conservatism

This paper studies how the independence and theconservatism of a central bank relate to the structureand stability of the median voter preferences. This isdone by means of a model of endogenous delegationwhere an opportunistic policy maker chooses themonetary regime (independence and conservatism) tomaximise the welfare of the median voter. The resultsshow that a high degree of inflation aversion ofmonetary policy is not necessarily associated with ahigh degree of central bank independence. A high andstable degree of inflation aversion of society (i.e.of the median voter) may lead to establish a dependentcentral bank which is highly inflation averse. This suggests that the negativecorrelation between inflation and central bankindependence indices detected by several empiricalstudies may reflect a link between inflation and somedeep features of social preferences.     

The limits of central bank independence for inflation performance

Public Choice - The independence of the central bank is routinely regarded as sacrosanct, at least for governments wishing to maintain credible monetary policy to meet inflation objectives. Yet...     

Political instability and inflation volatility

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the effects of political instability, social polarization and the quality of institutions on inflation volatility over time and across countries. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering 160 countries, analyzed in the period from 1960 to 1999, this paper finds that higher degrees of political instability and social polarization, less democracy, and lower de facto central bank independence are associated with more volatile inflation rates. Furthermore, political instability has greater effects on inflation volatility in developing countries with lower degrees of central bank independence and economic freedom.     

Political economy of agricultural policy

The present paper uses a paneldata estimation technique to combine the time series for individual countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States). We postulated the response of central banks in these countries to inflation, economic growth and current account surplus given the constraints to be the same among the sample countries. Differences between central bank independence come forward in a different structural pressure to lower or raise money market rates in these countries. The empirical results in this study coincide remarkably well with the legal indices of central bank independence.     

Optimal central banker contracts and common agency: a comment

We explore a setting where the central bank is offered an incentive scheme by an interest group, in addition to the contract designed by the government. We prove that the inflation bias can be eliminated when principals do not cooperate and have different output or inflation objectives. These conclusions contrast with those of Chortareas and Miller (Public Choice 121:131–155, 2004). The reason is that our analysis takes into account the participation constraints of the central bank. We also show that, if principals cooperate, the inflation bias is eliminated when their output target is different but not when they disagree over the inflation objective.     

The issue of instability in a simple policy game between the central bank and a representative union

In the recent economic literature the independence of the central bank is often considered to be one of the most effective guarantees to achieve price stability. A strong theoretical basis for this proposition is that the monetary policy delegation given to an independent central bank is an optimal instrument to avoid the time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. This paper investigates the stability properties of this solution in a simple game in which the private sector (i.e. the trade unions) and the public sector (i.e. the central bank) simultaneously interact. A representative monopoly union is considered, and – in line with the recent economic debate – two types of unions are investigated: (i) the standard micro-founded trade union; (ii) the inflation-averse trade union. In both cases, we find that the requirement for the Nash equilibrium to be stable imposes a limit to the conservativeness of the central bank. Instability of the Nash equilibrium reveals a strategic co-ordination failure between the public and the private sector.     

The Walsh contract for central bankers proves optimal after all!

A recent paper argues that the Walsh linear inflation contract does not prove optimal when the government concerns itself about the cost of the central bank contract (Candel-Sánchez & Campoy-Miñarro, 2004). This result relies on assuming that the participation constraint does not represent an effective constraint on the central banker’s decision. We show that the Walsh linear inflation contract does produce the optimal outcome, even when the government cares about the cost of the contract, assuming that the participation constraint holds.     

An Integrative Approach to the Politics of Central Bank Independence: Lessons from Britain,Germany and Italy

This article proposes a three-tier framework for analysing the politics of central bank independence. International factors explain the general trend towards central bank independence. However, they are framed differently by various national systems. At the national level, for heuristic purposes, the analysis can be structured by focusing on ‘suppliers’ and ‘demanders’ of central bank independence. The former are the political authorities, whereas the latter are socioeconomic forces and interest groups, with the central bank positioned in-between. At the micro-institutional level, central banks can be influential economic and political actors situated at the interface between levels of governance. The added value of this integrated framework is appraised using one case study, the Bank of Italy's path to independence, which is compared with the experience of the Bank of England and the Bundesbank. In contrast to many works on central bank independence, the methodology adopted here is qualitative, rather than quantitative, and is grounded in empirical research.     

An Independent Central Bank and an Independent Monetary Policy: The Role of the Government Budget—The Case of Poland 1924–26

Poland's 1924 stabilization plan created, as measured by contemporary criteria, an independent central bank. The stabilization's success was undermined by a fiscal disequilibrium when a capital levy failed to raise revenue. The Polish government covered the revenue shortfall by exploiting the right of the state to issue subsidiary coins. Although central bank independence was not compromised, Poland did not have an independent monetary policy. When the fiscal disequilibrium was corrected in 1926, the central bank gained complete control over monetary policy. Thus, a balanced budget may be more important to achieving price stability than arrangements to foster central bank independence.     

TESTING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF CAPITAL CONTROL LIBERALIZATION*

The literature on why restrictions over capital flows have been liberalized is filled with alternative causal stories (the pluralist, statist and systemic model, and economic explanations). In this article, we provide a test of these models of capital control liberalization within the context of 18 OECD countries from 1967 to 1995. We have avoided the usual practice of aggregating multiple governments in one country within one year into one country‐year observation, and use the country‐year‐government as the unit of analysis instead to correctly test the relationship between government characteristics and liberalization policy. We find that when the government considers lifting or imposing restrictions over capital flows, it responds to both systemic pressures and the key supporters of free capital flows. Governments also consider the current account balance and are heavily influenced by the prior policy choice regarding restrictions on capital transactions. We fail to find support for such explanations as the impact of government ideology, government strength, and central bank independence.     

The political economy of inflation: Bargaining structure or central bank independence?

The causes of inflation are commonly analyzed as the function of either the organization of wage bargaining or the independence of the central bank. Although these explanations are widely treated as competing, recent evidence suggests that there may be merit to both arguments. This paper presents a game-theoretic model of wage bargaining and monetary policy-making that shows why the two institutional causes are not only complementary, but elements of a more encompassing logic. The empirical superiority of this synthesizing model is demonstrated by reanalyzing data used in Al-Marhubi and Willett (1995) and by presenting new evidence.     

Erratum: The Political Economy of Inflation: Bargaining Structure or Central Bank Independence?

The causes of inflation are commonly analyzed as the function of either the organization of wage bargaining or the independence of the central bank. Although these explanations are widely treated as competing, recent evidence suggests that there may be merit to both arguments. This paper presents a game-theoretic model of wage bargaining and monetary policy-making that shows why the two institutional causes are not only complementary, but elements of a more encompassing logic. The empirical superiority of this synthesizing model is demonstrated by reanalyzing data used in Al-Marhubi and Willett (1995) and by presenting new evidence.     

Political institutions and Central Bank independence: A cross-country analysis

Using three quantitative measures of Central Bank independence, we apply OLS and TSLS regression methods to investigate the possible correlation between political liberty, political instability and central bank independence. For a sample of Western democracies and highly democratic developing countries we show that Cukierman's legal independence index is positively correlated with political freedom and regime political stability. It is negatively correlated with party political stability. For a sample of developing countries that excludes dictatorships we show that a special index of legal central bank autonomy is positively associated with political freedom and political stability. Finally, we observe that, for the same sample of nations, the turnover index of central bank independence is not sensitive to our political variables.