农村群体性突发事件形成原因及对策探析——基于安徽某市两村间群体冲突的思考

农村群体性突发事件严重影响了中国基层社会的稳定和农业生产的正常进行,有效解决群体性突发事件,不仅关系到中国基层政府的公信力问题,而且关系到中国社会主义新农村建设和谐稳定的大局。本文通过对安徽某市两自然村群体性冲突事件的观察思考,探析了当前中国农村全体性突发事件的原因。并且着重分析了利益因素以及政府责任因素在群体性突发事件中的作用,在此基础上笔者提出了解决农村群体性突发事件的对策。     

加强突发事件的舆论引导

一、网络舆情研判与突发事件网络舆情 所谓舆情，是由个人以及各种社会群体构成的公众，在一定的历史阶段和社会空间内，对自己关心或与自身利益紧密相关的各种公共事务（事项）或特定事件所持有的群体性情绪、意愿、态度、意见和要求交错的总和及其表现。舆情的主体是社会公众，是公众的心理反应过程；舆情的客体是公共事务，包括社会事件、社会热点问题、社会冲突、社会活动及公众人物的言行。     

加强突发事件的舆论引导

一、 网络舆情研判与突发事件网络舆情 所谓舆情,是由个人以及各种社会群体构成的公众,在一定的历史阶段和社会空间内,对自己关心或与自身利益紧密相关的各种公共事务(事项)或特定事件所持有的群体性情绪、意愿、态度、意见和要求交错的总和及其表现.舆情的主体是社会公众,是公众的心理反应过程;舆情的客体是公共事务,包括社会事件、社会热点问题、社会冲突、社会活动及公众人物的言行.     

解析群体性突发事件

当今世界是一个突发事件频发的风险社会,群体性突发事件正日益成为新时期中国面临的严峻挑战,及时、深入的了解群体性突发事件,对有效的应对它有重要的作用。从群体性突发事件的概念、特征及类型方面进行深入解析,力图全面了解群体性突发事件。     

论群体性突发事件预警机制的构建

当前日益频发多发的群体性突发事件已经成为影响地方社会稳定的主要因素,因此从深层次思考如何有效应对各类群体性突发事件已经成为构建和谐社会必须思考的重大现实问题。群体性突发事件预警机制的建立是促进社会和谐稳定的必然要求。本文在理论与实践的基础上,阐析了群体性突发事件预警的紧迫性和可行性,并结合实际就当前各级政府如何加强对群体性突发事件的预警,构建有效预警机制,主要从公共决策机制、考核机制、信访机制、信息监测调处机制、干部培训机制等方面提出了相应地思考。     

建设工程价款相关权利人的权利冲突及平衡问题思考

承包人工程价款优先受偿权、买受人的权利、按揭贷款担保权人的权利在实践中极易冲突且难以判断，文章对三者的权利冲突与平衡问题进行了探讨。     

转型期边疆多民族地区群体性突发事件的类型、特点及成因分析

边疆多民族地区群体性突发事件的类型具有多样性,其特点除了具有一般群体性突发事件的普遍性特点之外,还具有其自身的一些特殊性,主要是性质的复杂性、突出的民族性以及影响的广泛性、处置的艰巨性等.诱发边疆多民族地区群体性突发事件的原因既有社会经济的根源,也有体制性、政治性、政策性、民族性、国际性、管理性的原因.研究边疆多民族地区群体性突发事件的特点和原因是有效治理群体性突发事件的前提和基础.     

网络群体性突发事件的特征及成因分析

网络群体性突发事件是转型时期网络社会出现的新型社会问题,是当前社会危机的新形态。加强网络群体性突发事件的研究,对当前高校网络文化建设乃至政府对网络群体性突发事件的引导和干预都具有重要的现实意义。     

论社会转型期的农村群体性突发事件

当前农村群体性突发事件是我国农村社会内部矛盾经过长期积淀,通过差异、对立,达到局部对抗、激化的表现和状态。它具有群体性、突发性和局部对抗性等特点,对农村社会生活和发展具有极大的危害性。为此,要深刻分析农村群体性突发事件产生的原因,积极探索应对农村群体性突发事件的对策     

和谐社会背景下群体事件对策研究

群体性事件是我国社会转型时期社会矛盾和社会冲突的主要表现形式,它是在社会运行过程中多种因素综合作用的结果,是各种利益冲突的集中体现。我国社会进入了国际上公认的敏感发展阶段,在经济快速发展的同时,有些矛盾集中显现,群体性突发事件呈现高发态势。为此应加快政治体制改革;健全社会组织;建立畅通的利益表达渠道;构建社会稳定预警机制。     

Policy Lessons from Iraq on Managing Uncertainty in Intelligence Assessment: Why the Strategic/Tactical Distinction Matters

This paper focuses on how pre-existing policy priorities and goals among policy elites in the US, UK, and Australia encouraged the blurring of strategic and tactical intelligence assessment as a mechanism for legitimising the Iraq invasion. Through the selective use and interpretation of sometimes vague or unsubstantiated tactical and technical intelligence and the many uncertainties it contained, proponents of the war were able to undermine existing strategic assessments on Iraq by introducing a range of possible, but largely unsubstantiated, threat scenarios as justification for military action. The paper argues that in so far as intelligence reforms are needed, they should be focused primarily on the interface between analysis and policy making, and the issue of how policy makers interpret and understand the uncertainties that intelligence assessments necessarily contain.     

'All for One and One for All': Transactions Cost and Collective Action

Rational choice analysis of collective action predicts that individual members of a large group will not contribute voluntarily towards a common cause; members of large groups attribute no significance to individual action. Large groups are mobilised by the attraction of private goods and services; private interest, rather than identity with a common cause, is the stimulus. Yet the efficacy of such selective incentives depends on the signal that erstwhile 'profits' (from the provision of private goods) are dedicated to achieving a collective goal. At the same time, the signal that collective action is 'non-profit' enhances the intrinsic value of the act of participation. When the impact of individual action on outcome is difficult to discern, individuals rely on low-cost signals relating to process . There are incentives to identify with the pursuit of a common cause when collective action is deemed 'non-profit' and a common goal is non-rival.     

Social theory and social action

Modern social thought identifies social science with the conception of (1) ‘social action’ and (2) the ‘rationality’ of social action. This identification is central to the specificity of modern social thought as opposed, in particular, to Marxian social theory. In this paper we present a critical appraisal of these fundamental categories of current social science and trace out the contradictions which they entail for the theoretical comprehension of social phenomena. The contradictions intrinsic to the social action methodology, once made explicit, provide the necessary starting point for the critique of modern sociology and economics.     

Civic Networks and Community Resilience in Brazil,Canada, Chile,and Cuba

This article explores the relationship between civil society and community resilience in coastal communities in Brazil, Canada, Chile and Cuba. In understanding the role of social capital in community development, we do not feel sufficient attention has been paid to the subtle micro-dynamics of civil network structure. Using social network analysis, we explore the link between community cohesion and resilience. Attention is given to conflicting interests that characterize these communities and how they manifest themselves in civic participation and factional affiliations. We find that organizational diversity is a necessary condition for community vitality, but organizations can become captive to factional interests. The critical factors for resilience are associated with a benign side of factions (a plurality of inclusive ties) and the presence of keystone bridging agents. Each offers hidden mechanisms for neutralizing the effects of fragmentation by providing a cohesive capability which remains latent until crises call for collective action.     

Paving the Way: the Rise of Direct Action against Road-building and the Changing Character of British Environmentalism

Sustained protests against the building of new roads in Britain since 1992 signal the emergence of a new social movement dimension in British environmentalism. The growth of direct action has occurred outside the existing environmental pressure groups and this more radical green politics has undermined the view that the British state was able to prevent confrontational environmental protest. Small numbers of protesters have been able to make a major impact on the political agenda through a combination of technical ingenuity, tactical astuteness and determination. Models of political opportunity structures have become dominant in explaining the emergence and character of social movements but because they lay too much emphasis on the calculation of costs and benefits by movement actors they are of little help in analysis of this case. Rather, the case of the anti-roads movement suggests that further attention needs to be paid to the identities of the movement's founders in explaining their actions and lends credibility to the (much criticized) claim that new social movements are qualitatively new.     

Gauging the potential for social unrest

It stands to reason that social unrest does not erupt out of the blue. Although there are a great many reasons why social dismay might descend into social disorder, only few yardsticks or indices can plausibly be used to gauge the potential for social unrest (PSU). If policy makers want to undertake public action to prevent social dismay escalating into social disruption, they obviously need to draw on practical sensors. This paper assesses critically the adequacy of two such measures, the polarization (P) index, and the total relative deprivation (TRD) index. The paper proposes a tentative guide to selecting between these two measures. A review of three stylized scenarios suggests that, where income redistributions reduce the number of distinct income groups, and when each group is characterized by a strong sense of within-group identity, the P index surpasses the TRD index as a basis for predicting PSU. When the within-group identification is weak, however, it is better to use the TRD index to predict PSU.     

Connecting social and environmental policy in Australia: Collateral gains or collateral damage?

Climate change research relating to “co‐benefits” suggests that the facilitation of social‐welfare outcomes through environmental policy offers a powerful means of incentivising climate change action. Concerns about social‐welfare, however, are often used to undermine climate change policies, typically through political claims that low‐to‐middle‐income households should not shoulder the costs of greater policy alignment between social and environmental objectives. Integrating the social into the environmental can therefore, on the one hand, lead to “co‐benefits” as each agenda promotes the other in political discourse, or alternatively to collateral damage if the policy objectives are framed as incompatible. This article explores both scenarios through two case studies of energy policy in Australia. The findings show that social‐welfare concerns can be a powerful discursive tool with the potential to facilitate political consensus, but also that this potential is not being fully realised, primarily because environmental concerns suffer when attempts are made to integrate the two areas discursively.     

Evolution without democracy: Toward a unified framework for understanding the success and failure of Chinese Communism

This paper establishes an evolutionary framework for studying the dynamics of the power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party in relation to the wider power struggle in the nation. It posits four essential conditions for the applicability of the framework and a prediction of consequences. If a political party meets all the key conditions, then the model predicts that the ultimate winner of the internal power struggle is one who has identified the optimal strategy for the party to win the national power struggle and who has demonstrated the ability of putting it to practical use. The theoretical framework is briefly applied to several periods of the modern Chinese history. One of the evolutionary conditions is that the norm of promotion based on merits, which I argue the CCP inherited from the traditional Confucian culture, figures as the basic rule of game in deciding the intra-party power struggle. Thus, “evolution without democracy” is essentially a continuation of the traditional political culture in the new social context. My basic observation is that the CCP before 1949 met most of the evolutionary conditions, with Mao Zedong emerging as the ultimate winner of the internal power struggle at the same time as the CCP won its national victory. After 1949, however, the CCP has gradually changed from a revolutionary party to a status quo party, with Mao himself the biggest status quo winner, and some of the evolutionary assumptions began to be violated. I suggest that, in the post-Mao (and especially the post-Deng) era, these conditions might begin to be satisfied again. These preliminary observations are to be tested further by extensive case studies. The author thanks Professor Ross Terrill and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments on the earlier drafts of the paper.     

Social preferences and private provision of public goods: A ‘double critical mass’ model

We set up an evolutionary game-theoretic model aimed at addressing the issue of local public good provision via direct commitment of voluntary forces (private donors and nonprofit providers) only. Two classes of agents are assumed to strategically interact within a ‘double critical mass’ model and we investigate the critical factors affecting the dynamic outcomes of such interaction. Further, we explore the conditions under which (what we term) ‘evolutionary crowding-out/in’ occurs, depending on agents’ degree of opportunism, social comparison and positive selective incentives (such as subsidies given by the government to ‘virtuous’ citizens or nonprofits only).     

Moved,left no address: dam construction,displacement and issue salience

Dams have displaced millions of people in many countries of the world, but such social costs of dam construction constitute a relatively new international issue. The emergence of displacement as a salient issue is explained with reference to three factors: historical circumstances, political leaders' ability to mobilize support for their priority concerns and to public participation. Participation refers to both the public's action to influence critical policy decisions and to its sense of efficacy. Cases are considered in three major dam‐building countries: the United States, India and China. In the United States, social displacement never became a public or political issue. Instead, dams have been challenged on environmental grounds. In India, by contrast, dams have stirred enormous controversy due to their social costs. The article also considers experience in China, site of the world's largest dam project, and the recent report of an international commission, the World Commission on Dams. The report's release in November 2000 marks the emergence of social displacement as a global concern. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.