Explaining Public Management Policy Change: Germany in Comparative Perspective

Public management policies have changed significantly in numerous countries in recent times. Policy entrepreneurs remain active in this policy domain, which encompasses government-wide rules and routines in the areas of expenditure planning and financial management, civil service and labor relations, procurement, organization and methods, and audit and evaluation. Case-oriented comparative research provides policy entrepreneurs with historically and theoretically informed knowledge useful in designing or improvising change strategies in this domain. This article focuses on the case of public management policymaking in the German federal government during the 1980s and 1990s. A coherent explanation of the careers of the overbureaucratization issue in the 1980s and the lean state issue in the 1990s is provided, along with an explanation for marked changes in selected public management policies in the 1990s. Analysis of this case is also harmonized with findings about public management policy change in the U.K., New Zealand, and Australia. Limited generalizations about the process of public management policy change are proposed. Policy entrepreneurs can factor these generalizations, plus analysis of the Germany case, into their prospective, situational analysis of the process of public management policy change.     

Citizens' voluntary governing boards: Waiting for the quorum

In complex societies formal power, legitimacy, and responsibility are typically allocated to councils, or governing boards. This is an old strand in American political culture, strengthened by the growth of private not-for-profit organizations and concern for citizens' representation. It is also a growing trend in Great Britain, West Germany, and other modern societies. Such boards are often taken for granted; we think we understand them, hence the value of investigating the obvious. In this essay they are examined with respect to their external and internal relations (or structure), their problems and performance (or processes), and the blurred nature of their authority in an interpenetrated society where public and private interests are inextricably intertwined. Illustrations are derived from the author's research in the governance of labor union locals, municipal governments and reform movements, urban renewal efforts, community mental health centers, and private hospital governing boards.This paper is based in part on research supported by The National Center for Health Services Research, Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Government Grant No. R01-HS-03238-02.     

Theorizing about public expenditure decision-making: (as) if wishes were horses ...

There have been several attempts to compare different approaches to modelling public expenditure decision-making. This paper is an extended comment on one such attempt: Fred Thompson and Richard Williams, A Horse Race Around a Möbius Strip: A Review and a Test of Utility Maximizing and Organizational-Process Models of Public Expenditure Decisions. In a commentary mode, we: (a) examine why tests of the sort that Thompson and Williams offer are neither definitive in choosing between models nor very useful in improving models; (b) outline a more meaningful test procedure; and (c) offer a somewhat more critical view than Thompson and Williams of the utility-maximizing approach to modelling public expenditure decisions.A comment on Fred Thompson and Richard Williams, A Horse Race Around a Möbius Strip: A Review and A Test of Utility-Maximizing and Organizational-Process Models of Public Expenditure Decisions, in this issue of Policy Sciences.     

Trade Winds: NAFTA and the Rational Public

The sharp increase in suppport for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) poses a challenge to many of our conceptions of public opinion. Most large shifts in public opinion follow major events. Based on models estimated from the September to November NBC News/ Wall Street Journal surveys, I show this was not the case with respect to public opinion on NAFTA. Instead, the increase in support for the pact reflected a slower response to a public debate over the merits of free trade versus protectionism. As the debate proceeded, large segments of the public— including the least interested—developed more highly constrained belief systems. By the end of the public discourse, the most and least interested citizens both linked attitudes on the merits of trade to their positions on NAFTA and to their evaluations of the elites on each side of the issue. People made up their minds on NAFTA on the basis of arguments about trade, not about their own self-interest. The NAFTA case suggests that there may be a rational public at the individual level after all, even among people who may not usually be interested in public affairs.     

Policy analysis: some observations on the West German scene

The article provides an overview on the development and the state of policy analysis as applied public policy research in West Germany. The developmental sketch shows that, similar to the upsurge of policy research in the United States since the mid-1960s, policy research in the Federal Republic of Germany is an offspring of the reformist period of the late 1960s and early 1970s, carried by a virtual reformers' coalition among politicians, bureaucrats, and researchers. Due to extradisciplinary demands and also intradisciplinary shifts in research foci, public policy research became almost a growth industry in the course of the 1970s.The article goes on to explore which repercussions the economic crisis, the new conservative moods and majorities and the end to reforms has had on the state and the orientation of policy analysis. The argument is presented that, no matter which majorities have the day, policy research remains socially and politically indispensible to detect and test corridors and niches for public action under ever narrower financial restraints and to identify the costs and benefits of such policies in a changing world.     

The relocation of released mental hospital patients into residential communities

The mental health patient release programs have been proceeding more rapidly than informed judgment could possibly warrant. Public sector mental health care, whether centralized in state hospitals or deconcentrated within residential communities, falls considerably below the standards and practices of private sector care. The accelerated release of former patients has strained the potential for therapeutic community placement. The massive reassignment of patients has been prompted by the goals of: providing for the civic and therapeutic rights of patients; providing knowledgeable and effective treatment; implementing cost savings; and integrating in-patients within a more aware and accepting inclusive society. The structural elements of the assignment process can be examined within the context of a reassignment model in order to identify the informational and program needs for a reasonable release and aftercare process. The present reliance upon salvage of the poorly conceived release programs through ghettoization of ex-patients can only be justified as a mechanism for forcing a wide range of communities to accept long overdue responsibility for their disabled members.Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Princeton University. Grateful acknowledgement is made to the NIMH (METRO Division) for research support to the Regional Science Research Institute (Philadelphia, Pa.), to the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences for fellowship support during the period this study was undertaken, and to Maurice Rappaport (Agnews State Hospital, Calif.), Harold Baker (Aftercare Services Division, Calif. Dept. of Health), Anthony Mumphrey, Daniel Garr (San Jose State University) and Montye Rivera (Home Care News, San Jose, Calif.) for their assistance in the conduct of this research.     

A decision model for the study of public bureaucracies

In this paper the concept series of decisions is introduced and defined as the total number of decisions made in the attainment of a goal. The series are analytically divided into two types of decisions, programming and implementation—the first ones are those made during the process of converting policy goals into programs, and the second, those made during the implementation of the programs. The distinction is important because different actors and institutions are involved in the two phases. It is hypothesized that the relation between the time of programming decisions and the time of implementation of decisions tends to be zero the less effective and the less numerous the organizations participating in the programming phase. A list of factors which could be useful in the process of testing and modifying the hypothesis is presented. The division of health environment of the health ministry of Colombia is used to exemplify the concept of series of decisions, and to show the utility of the analytical distinction between programming and implementation decisions.The field work for this study was done in 1970 under the sponsorship of the Division of Research in Epidemiology and Communications Sciences (RECS) of the World Health Organization. The research was conducted at the Ministry of Public Health of Colombia. I am very grateful to Dr. Antonio Ordonez Plaja, Minister of Public Health at the time of the research. Without his continuous help, encouragement and understanding, this work would not have been possible.     

Consulting critics: A new role for academic policy analysts

It is by now widely accepted that social science research has only an indirect and general impact on public policymaking. Academic social science research, it is often argued, is antithetical to policy research: the former is animated by traditional scientific canons while the latter is specific and problem-oriented. Moreover, modern bureaucracies are now understood as political environments within which pure research will be routinely ignored if it does not serve someone's interests. For these and other reasons, social scientists are being encouraged either to eschew policy research or not to expect much influence. This article provides an alternative model of social scientists in the policy process, as consulting critics reviewing, analyzing and commenting upon substantive policy research. This model holds benefits for both scholars and clients, turns the canons of scientific inquiry into assets instead of liabilities, and responds to some of the concerns recently raised in the literature concerning the role of social science in the policy process.     

Program evaluation and the commissioning entity

The present decade has witnessed a shift from planning to emphasis on program performance and accountability. However, program evaluation must contend with many different policy preferences articulated by groups and institutions involved with social programs. In particular, the entity commissioning an evaluation expects some policy dmileage from the undertaking. Evaluation intended as an aid to decisionmaking cannot afford to separate the program under study from its organizational and political context.Federal categorical social programs like Head Start fill many needs for many groups. Evaluation preoccupied with experimental rigor often underestimates the need to adapt to political and administrative realities. At the other extreme, excessive accommodation to program ideology and organizational self-interest undermines the credibility of the evaluative process.Its limitations notwithstanding, program evaluation does yield informed policy alternatives. It invites rational public discussion of social programs and adds substance to the process of political bargaining.     

Behavioral response to safety regulation

The effectiveness of safety regulation can be enhanced or offset by various forms of behavioral feedback. This study provides estimates of the effectiveness of motorcycle helmet laws in reducing fatalities based on pooled time-series and cross-sectional data for the United States during the years 1975 to 1984. Estimates from the model suggest that the presence of a helmet-wearing law induces a 12 to 22 percent decline in the motorcycle mortality problem. The results are consistent with the view that helmet laws are an effective public health policy, at least in the short run. However, there is also some evidence of gradual risk-compensation behavior: The immediate rise in fatalities following repeal of helmet laws appears to dissipate gradually at a rate of roughly 2.5 percent per year. This result suggests that future studies of safety regulation should consider longrun as well shortrun behavioral responses.     

The social policy of the firm

The welfare state concept hides an important aspect of modern industrial societies. In capitalist countries welfare is provided through a mixture of public and private initiatives. The author suggests that the concept welfare economy more fully captures the economic interpenetration of public and private sectors. The growth of fringe benefits illustrates the extent to which private enterprise performs the welfare function.Government increasingly intervenes through processes of mandating, stimulating, regulating, and supporting, using private enterprise as the vehicle for delivery of welfare services. Government's traditionally conceived role as welfare service provider is also changed through recognition that it is both an employer and purchaser, significantly impacting society's original income distribution.An earlier version of this essay was presented as a lecture at the University of Melbourne and published in Ronald F. Henderson, The Welfare Stakes: Strategies for Australian Social Policy, Melbourne: Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research, 1981.     

Explaining collective action with rational models

We note the failure of a rational egoist model of human behavior to generate successful predictions of important economic and political behaviors including collective action. Alternative models are presented that combine rational, utility-maximizing features with concerns about collective welfare. The performance of these models in explaining contributing behavior in an experimentally-induced public goods game is compared to the performance of a rational egoist and collective welfare model. The results indicate that a model in which subjects are presumed to trade off benefits to self with benefits to others provides a better explanation of actual contributing behavior than either the rational egoist or collective welfare models, but still explains only a small amount of the individual variance in contributing behavior.The Institute for Political Economy, Utah State University provided important financial support for this study. Donald Cundy, Alan Huston, Joe Oppenheimer, John Orbell, and Randy Simmons provided valuable comments on earlier drafts.     

Demographic trends that will shape future housing demand

Four important demographic influences will shape housing demand in the United States: (1) the population's changing age profile, which foreshadows significant shifts in the composition of future housing demand, (2) the tendency for young men and women to remain single longer than they did in the past and to establish households in nonfamily living situations as primary individuals, (3) the widening mortality differential between the sexes, which has increased the tendency for women to outlive men, (4) a reversal of long-standing migration trends, which has brought about a redirection of settlement patterns within and outside the nation's metropolitan areas.Together, these trends will influence the type of housing people seek, and where they seek it, in three distinct ways: (1) by governing the rate of change in population of prime household-formation age, (2) by influencing the manner in which people group themselves into social units for housing purposes at different stages of the life cycle, (3) by concentrating specific socioeconomic or age strata of the population in certain places.This paper is the first in the 1975–76 series of Congressional Seminars on National Urban Growth Policy, organized by the National Planning Association and held at the Library of Congress, Washington, D.C. This seminar was held on October 15, 1975.     

Underlying patterns in a current economic development model

Public officials may subjectively use a variety of elements, including economic characteristics and political considerations, in their selection of locations and allocation of resources for economic development. Policy capture is a method that determines the impartial weighting of a broad number of elements which influence these decision makers as they operationalize programs. Non-political criteria that may influence the selection of sites for local economic development provide the basis of the analysis conducted in this paper. Public officials at various levels of responsibility assessed the chances of creating jobs for disadvantaged residents (employment success) for a variety of hypothetical areas chosen as an enterprise zone. Their responses give insight into policy decisions. There is a comparison of both individual responses and groups of respondents to the hypothetical data as well as to actual zones that were recently selected. Concluding remarks will discuss these results and the application of this method for enterprise zones and other policy analyses.We wish to acknowledge the extensive helpful suggestions of the editor and two anonymous reviewers.     

Dilemmas in a general theory of planning

The search for scientific bases for confronting problems of social policy is bound to fail, becuase of the nature of these problems. They are wicked problems, whereas science has developed to deal with tame problems. Policy problems cannot be definitively described. Moreover, in a pluralistic society there is nothing like the undisputable public good; there is no objective definition of equity; policies that respond to social problems cannot be meaningfully correct or false; and it makes no sense to talk about optimal solutions to social problems unless severe qualifications are imposed first. Even worse, there are no solutions in the sense of definitive and objective answers.This is a modification of a paper presented to the Panel on Policy Sciences, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Boston, December 1969.     

Information,intelligence, enlightened public policy: Functions and organization of societal feedback

Normative properties which make social statistics useful as social indicators are illuminated by considering the functions systematic social knowledge has at various levels of social organization and the involvements of actors at these various levels in roles which result in such knowledge. Modes and degrees of generalization which make knowledge useful for action at the lowest levels of social organization (information) or for administration at intermediate bureaucratic levels (intelligence) are not necessarily applicable to the formation of broad social policy (policy knowledge) or for affecting the general conceptions of the social world held by broad public (enlightenment). The latter two functions are not always well served by data which have been collected and ordered by systems primarily responsive to the former two functions.Portions of this paper were presented at the 65th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York City, 6 September 1969 and at a Colloquium on Urban Intelligence Systems at the Center for Urban Studies, Wayne State University, 17 April, 1969.     

American welfare strategies: Three programs under the social security act

In the United States, a single piece of legislation, the Social Security Act, is the major vehicle through which the cash assistance to citizens is provided. This act contains many subprograms, programs so different in concept, administration and programmatic implication that many people do not know that the same piece of legislation makes them all possible. In this paper three programs—social security, unemployment compensation, and public assistance—are examined in a sociohistorical, sociocultural context. The roots of these programs are analyzed, their current operations outlined, and the policy problems currently confronting them are detailed. The ways in which the programs relate to the political mythology of the society is seen as important. Because of the continual conflicts arising out of the administration of public assistance, three special cases involving that program are mentioned.Special thanks is due to Mrs. Shirley Roles, who made many useful conceptual and editorial suggestions.     

Decision process models and the needs of policy-makers: Thoughts on the foreign policy interface

Many political scientists are not at all convinced that empirically verifiable generalizations about political behavior can ever be produced. There are thus many who believe that political scientists can never exert a significant impact upon the public policy-making process. Perhaps one way of narrowing the gap between the researcher and the policy-maker is to examine the public (foreign) policy decision-making process, pinpoint the leverage points within the process where social and political scientists (who engage in foreign policy analysis) might help, and then list the kinds and methods of analysis that would contribute the most to the process. The work of Harold D. Lasswell, James E. Anderson, E. S. Quade, William D. Coplin, and Charles F. Hermann can help us define the (foreign) policy-making process and locate the points at which scientific analysis can help the (foreign) policy-maker. The matching of these leverage points with types and instances of relevant analyses, as well as the methodologies necessary to carry out the analyses results in a matrix of decision tasks and research tasks which may be viewed as an agenda for the conduct of policy relevant research.The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or any other agency of the U.S. Government.     

Management strategy for economic and social development: Part I

The new and rapidly changing environment of development administrators includes (1) the emergence of a world society of interdependent nations, (2) a rapid and confusing technological and scientific revolution, (3) the expansion of service societies in industrialized countries, (4) new major alternatives for war, neocolonialism, despotism and materialism, and (5) development problems of ascending complexity and difficulty.Post-industrial beginnings in modern management arise from a background of management thought and technique in agriculturla epochs and the more recent industrial revolution. They encompass computer technology; operations research; systems approaches, including systems engineering, management information systems, and general systems research; cost-effectiveness analysis and PPBS; social indicators; and futurecasting. Their development has contributed to a growing gulf between technique and capability, to a triumph of technique over strategy and a retreat from human values.Attention is directed to specific strategies and tactics of introducing modern management techniques in developing nations. The efforts to do this during the 1960 Development Decade are reviewed. The prospects for the 1970's are previewed, and suggestions offered for problem area task forces and the expansion of U.N. activities in advancing, not merely diffusing, the current state of the art.Since the most significant modern management advances have been tactical, a dozen principles of strategic decisionmaking are suggested: (1) responsible decisionmaking, (2) the conflict essence of problems, (3) selectivity, (4) total system appreciation, (5) relative proportions, (6) sequential model-using, (7) problem interrelationships, (8) jointed incrementalism, (9) organized and unorganized interests, (10) the emotional basis of rational action, (11) investment in future capabilities, and (12) power mobilization and use.The paper ends by raising vital questions on the improvement of managerial values. This is done by specific proposals for a code of managerial ethics and the formulation of more humanistic management goals.