经济刺激政策退出平衡术

##正##既要保持货币流动性的合理充裕,又要保持利率的合理水平,同时要管好通胀预期。这种多目标实际上是一种典型的相机抉择策略,如何把握适度宽松货币政策的适度,是一门调控大艺术。又将是扑朔迷离的一年。2010年全国两会3月14日结束。这一天北京天气阴沉、大雪纷飞,而次日却艳阳高照,这种剧烈的天气变化似乎在昭示今年国内外形势的复杂性与政策的不确定性。今年‘两会'不仅是本届政府的中     

经济刺激政策退出将取“渐退”之势

<正>用温家宝总理的话讲,2010年将是最为复杂的一年。这种复杂性的表现是多方面的:比如,在当前国际经济形势仍面临极大不确定性的背景下,我们仍需依赖经济刺激政策的支撑,但这种刺激又必须保持适度,且要准备随时减弱以至退出。再如,在过去一年多的时间,各国向经济中注入了大量的流动性。这些被注入的流动性终归要释放出来,不     

经济刺激政策退出遭遇“软抵抗”

随着中国经济的强劲复苏,刺激政策的退出已成必然,但地方政府与中央政府基于各自不同利益,对经济走向的分歧加剧,使得未来在调控政策上的博弈也将进一步加剧。     

经济刺激政策的中国式退出

<正>宏调政策虽保留积极、宽松方针表述,然而实际操作自去年夏秋以来已逐步反向调整。整治地方投融资平台是近来中国式退出的关键措施。房地产政策U型转变构成这次中国式退出又一显著特色。晚近宏观经济形势特点,或可在中国式退出命题下观察讨论。去年上半年货币信贷以30%上下罕见增速扩张,一方面较快扭转经济增速大幅下滑势头,创造总需求V型回升局面;另一方面引入通胀预期和压力,并派生资产价格飙升和虚高问题。针对经济过度扩张新风险,宏调政策虽保留积极、宽松方针表述,然而实际操作自去年夏秋以来已逐步反向调整。     

日本刺激经济政策的难堪

竹中平藏表示,希望鸠山能以密特朗为榜样,大幅削减为吸引选票而做的各种不切实际的开支承诺。否则,鸠山政府早晚或在经济上,或在政治上破产。若问题首先出在经济上,最坏可致日本成为阿根廷通货膨胀的翻版。     

经济刺激余温下的圈钱难题

2010年的货币政策选择,利率是个难点,无论升息还是不升息,都是坐在火山口上的困扰。     

后金融危机时期两岸经济走向及合作研究

此次国际金融危机使美欧等发达经济体陷入经济低迷状态,“金砖四国”将成为推动世界经济增长的主要动力,尤其是中国作为最大和增长最快的发展中国家,将在推动未来围际经济发展中扮演更为重要的角色。后金融危机时期,由于工业化和城市化进程加快,内需市场不断扩大,大陆经济仍将保持快速增长．     

美国贸易政策新思维映射下的“印太经济框架”

在继承特朗普政府贸易政策的基础上,拜登政府重新塑造了美国贸易政策的底层逻辑,形成美国贸易政策的“新思维”。其试图放弃传统方式的贸易自由化,以国内政治需求为中心,构建高标准的国际经贸规则体系,抑制所谓“逐底竞争”,引导跨国公司从追求效率转为追求“最优成本”,最终重塑全球价值链,并实现“安全和韧性”。“印太经济框架”是美国贸易政策新思维在印太地区的战略映射,集中体现了美国贸易政策思维逻辑重塑的结果。贸易政策新思维使得“印太经济框架”显现非传统贸易协定、推行新涵义的市场准入、与其他区域战略呼应、重视集体能力等特征。其战略目标是重获区域经贸规则制定权,重塑中国所处战略环境。面对未来区域内可能出现的种种“去中国化”挑战,中国需在亚太经贸合作领域做好全局性战略应对,坚定地坚持多边治理和高水平对外开放的战略。同时,针对“印太经济框架”的不同议题,中国应及时设计短、中、长期的应对战略和策略组合。     

美国对外经济政策中的“国家”角色——读《国家与美国的对外经济政策》

关于国家对外经济政策的政治经济分析历来是国际政治经济学(IPE)的一个重要研究领域。①事实上,由于战后美国在世界经济体系中的主导地位,该领域内的文献主要关注的还是美国的对外经济政策。与一般的政策分析不同,关于美国对外经济政策的政治经济分析不仅仅是针对具体政策本身,     

经济刑法理念的转向:保障市场自律机制的健全

近年来,金融商品交易等领域频繁发生大案要案的根本原因在于:我国经济刑法的立法、司法及研究范式仍然桎梏于统制经济刑法思维之中,无法应对自由经济体制的要求,市场自律机制始终难以健全,因而很难为"发挥市场在资源配置中的基础作用"提供有效的辅助。在统制经济体制转变为自由经济体制的背景下,经济刑法的根本理念应当是保障市场自律机制的健全。为此,建构经济秩序的机能应当服从于保护国民经济权益的机能;应当依据保护法益的实质内涵来区分制度依存型经济刑法与权益保障型经济刑法;应当放弃刑法优先主义的规制思维,转而构建起以企业自律为主轴,行政处分与民事追责为辅助,刑事制裁为补充的新型规制机制;应当突出违法性认识可能性作为出罪事由的积极意义,并将违法性认识可能性的对象限定为刑事违法性。     

取消新经济政策原因新论

新经济政策与布尔什维克意识形态的矛盾,高度集中的政治体制与新经济政策所建立起来的混合经济体制之间的矛盾,现代化的价值观与俄罗斯社会传统观念之间的矛盾,高速工业化的方针导致的经济和社会危机,这些矛盾相互交织,导致新经济政策最终被终止.     

Policy Networks and Policy Learning UK Economic Policy in the 1960s and 1970s

Policy networks are advanced as an alternative to the Westminster model of the UK polity but the theory lacks an internal dynamic and has typological problems. This article applies Peter Hall's (1993) concept of 'social learning' to policy networks and maps the networks found in two case studies of British economic policy making: Hall's own study of the shift from Keynesianism to monetarism in the 1970s and the author's research on the advent of 'Keynesian-plus' in the early 1960s. The article advances three main propositions. Firstly, that integrating the concept of social learning can dynamize the policy network model. Secondly, the case studies suggest that different network configurations are associated with different orders of policy change but that Hall's definition of 'third order change' may be too restrictive. Thirdly, policy networks can be much more complex and fluid then is generally claimed, sometimes becoming so extensive that they might be termed a 'meta-network'.     

金砖国家近期经济形势及政策协调

当前,世界经济避免重蹈20世纪30年代＂大萧条＂覆辙,主要原因是金砖国家等新兴经济以V型强劲反弹,成为引领全球经济复苏的生力军。后危机时代,金砖国家等新兴市场发展依然鹤立鸡群,新兴大国群体性崛起,推动力量格局向东转移,促进世界经济发展更趋多元。     

德国创业促进体系及对中国的启示

新创企业和创新企业是经济发展中至关重要的一部分，已成为增强自主创新能力、转变经济增长方式、加速经济复兴、促进经济增长、扩大社会就业的重要动力。据统计，占德国企业总数99.7％的338万家中小企业营业税占整个德国企业界的99.3％，提供了约70％的就业机会和82％的培训机会。德国中小企业的繁荣关键在于其创业活动的踊跃，     

World Bank Lending and the Quality of Economic Policy

This study investigates the impact of World Bank development policy lending on the quality of economic policy. It finds that the quality of policy increases, but at a diminishing rate, with the cumulative number of policy loans. Similar results hold for the cumulative number of conditions attached to policy loans, although quadratic specifications indicate that additional conditions may even reduce the quality of policy beyond some point. The paper measures the quality of economic policy using the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessments of macro, debt, fiscal, and structural policies, and considers only policy loans targeted at improvements in those areas. Previous studies finding weaker effects of policy lending on macro stability have failed to distinguish loans primarily intended to improve economic policy from other loans targeted at improvements in sector policies or in public management. The paper also shows that investing in economic policy does not ‘crowd out’ policy improvements in other areas, such as public sector governance or human development. The results are robust to using alternative indicators of policy quality and correcting for endogeneity with system generalized methods of moments and cross-sectional two-stage least squares. The more positive results in the study relative to some previous studies are consistent with claims by the World Bank that it has learned from its mistakes with traditional adjustment lending.     

新经济政策若干问题的研究评述

学术界对列宁新经济政策的产生和实质、停止退却的含义等问题进行了深入的研究.这些成果对理解和推进建设有中国特色社会主义的事业有重要意义.     

Government Policy and Economic Dualism in South Africa

This article offers a critical reflection on the field of Sudan Studies in light of the partition of Sudan into two states in 2011. It charts the emergence of Sudan Studies as a distinct research field, emphasising the temporal gap between the beginning of scholarly writing on Sudan and the moment when the labels “Sudan Studies” and “dirāsāt sūdāniyya” appeared. The current relevance of a “transnational” field of Sudan Studies is questioned, leading the author to suggest various criteria that may legitimise the existence of a distinct -if not unified- “Sudanist” field. Finally, the article envisions the future evolution of the historical scholarship on the two Sudans, both in the new political and ideological context that has been taking shape since 2011, and from a more specifically historiographical perspective.     

苏俄新经济政策和中国改革开放之比较

社会主义没有现成的道路、模式可以搬用,必须通过改革寻找适合本国国情的方法、道路和机制.苏俄的新经济政策和中国的改革开放在原因、内容以及过程等方面有颇多相同或相似之处,所不同的是,苏俄新经济政策最终夭折,而中国的改革开放则取得了巨大成功.     

Four Scenarios of Development and the Role of Economic Policy

We ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development. We observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters, each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality. Based on this observation, we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country's probability to achieve the most (or the least) favourable of these scenarios. Our results point to a comforting picture: through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their chances to achieve the most favourable development scenario.     

Avoiding the Economic Crisis: Pragmatic Liberalism and Divisions over Economic Policy in Poland

Although liberalism has been the dominant economic ideology in post-communist Poland, liberal parties have tended to struggle to win political majorities. After winning the 2011 parliamentary elections, Citizens' Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) became the first party in Poland's democratic history to win two consecutive elections. Despite its liberal ideological background, Platforma Obywatelska took a more pragmatic and cautious approach to economic policy, avoiding the introduction of strong austerity economic policies. This paper considers the debate within the liberal camp about Platforma Obywatelska's economic policies, with particular reference to the reform of pensions. It also looks at the plans of the government for more strident liberal economic reforms in its second term, at what impact these will have on the popularity of Platforma Obywatelska and at how this reflects a tension between the party's pragmatic concerns of government and commitment to liberal ideology.