西方“技术联盟”:构建新科技霸权的战略路径

新一轮科技革命与产业变革正在深入发展,科技正成为大国战略竞争的主战场。围绕科技发展与应用之规则、标准、体系等因素的竞争,将直接影响到国际战略的权力结构与国际体系的重塑。基于"技术多边主义"战略,美国将与其伙伴国家围绕高科技领域组建"技术联盟",共同制定全球科技发展与治理的新规则、新标准,进而实现对新科技塑造权力的掌握。随着西方"技术联盟"框架体系日渐成型,全球力量结构、国际格局与国际体系都将受到深刻影响。     

How International Reputation Matters: Revisiting Alliance Violations in Context

We investigate the role of international reputation in alliance politics by developing a signaling theory linking past alliance violations with the formation of future alliance commitments. In our theory, past violations Are useful signals of future alliance reliability conditional on whether they effectively separate reliable from unreliable alliance partners. It follows that states evaluating potential alliance partners will interpret past violations in their context when deciding to enter a new alliance, attaching less weight to violations in “harder times,” when many states are defaulting on their alliance commitments together, and more weight to violations in “easier times,” when fewer states are defaulting on their alliances. We test our theory and find that states are empirically more likely to form new alliances with states that violated in harder times compared to states that violated in easier times. The results have important implications for how scholars understand and estimate the impact of international reputation.     

Human Security and Constructivism

This article explores the concept of "human security" as an academic and fledgling policy movement that seeks to place the individual—or people collectively—as the referent of security. It does this against a background of evolving transnational norms relating to security and governance, and the development of scientific understanding that challenges orthodox conceptions of security. It suggests that human security is not a coherent or objective school of thought. Rather, there are different, and sometimes competing, conceptions of human security that may reflect different sociological/cultural and geostrategic orientations. The article argues that the emergence of the concept of human security—as a broad, multifaceted, and evolving conception of security—rreflects the impact of values and norms on international relations. It also embraces a range of alliances, actors, and agendas that have taken us beyond the traditional scope of international politics and diplomacy. As a demonstration of change in international relations, of evolving identities and interests, this is best explained with reference to "social constructivist" thought, in contradistinction with the structural realist mainstream of international relations. In a constructivist vein, the article suggests that empirical research is already building a case in support of human security thinking that is, slowly, being acknowledged by decision-makers, against the logic of realist determinism.     

Sino-Russia Relations Towards Comprehensive and Strategic Cooperation

The Sino-Russia relation is a kind of new state-relationship,which is based on the long-term political,economic and security interests of the people of two countries.Mutual respect,equality,and mutual benefit are the basis of this relationship.China and Russia should strengthen regional cooperation and cultural exchanges so that the bilateral relations can be consolidated further.President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia opens up new opportunities for pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia.     

核事故、能源结构调整与国际气候合作

福岛核事故将对各国能源结构调整和国际气候合作产生重大影响.从短中期来看,部分国家将对核能产业实施紧缩政策,化石能源比重可能增加,在国际气候合作中作出积极减排承诺的意愿也将降低,国际气候合作可能继续陷于僵局之中.在可预见的未来,人类需要通过追求核能安全来维护能源安全和气候安全.     

从话语危机到安全危机：机理与应对

语言影响人们的思维和认知,是人与人、国与国之间交流和沟通的媒介,也是安全研究的重要维度。特定的话语可塑造威胁身份,叙述危机故事,对言语对象制造话语障碍,形成话语压力,建构话语危机,影响相关政策,使特定问题安全化,并影响安全程度的高低,导致不同的安全政策,甚至助推战争。中国在近三十年来一直面临来自西方世界的话语压力,在国际舆论场中经常陷入不利境地,有时由于某个话题成为舆论焦点,遭遇话语危机,如“中国威胁论”“中国强硬论”“中国威胁南海航行自由”“中国威胁世界秩序”以及中美“修昔底德陷阱”等。中国成为世界第二大经济体后日益成为世界关注的焦点,中国亟须研究和应对话语压力和话语危机。中国需要加大世界发声力度,提高话语主动性和自觉性;加大中国文化理念的国际宣传,重塑中国话语的国际语境;努力提升国际话语权;避免话语与行为的盲目自大,避免不必要的话语攻击和误解、有针对性地做好美国关于中国话语的改善工作。只有这样,才能够减少话语障碍和话语压力,有效缓解和化解话语危机。这是为中国塑造良好外部环境、提升中国国际形象、使中国与世界的互动更加顺畅的重要条件。     

中缅政治经济关系：战略与经济的层面

从目前来看,缅甸既不是中国的战略棋子也不是其经济枢纽。1988年后的中缅关系是不平衡的、不对称的,但是互惠互利的。两国的战略、经济关系是政治联姻性的。然而,缅甸连接南亚、东南亚和中国的重要地理位置具有战略和经济意义。缅甸是中国实现成为21世纪大国这一战略总计划的重要组成部分。虽然中国对缅甸的影响越来越大,但是仰光将不可能成为中国的战略卫星国。     

论苏联解体后的“核遗产”及核扩散危机

苏联解体后其庞大的核武库也一分为四,在核武器系统、核材料、核科学家及核技术等三个层次都出现了失控的核扩散危机。以美国为首的国际社会从各个方面给予了大力援助,使前苏联庞大的"核遗产"得到了妥善的处理。因苏联解体而一度出现的核国家增多的问题得以解决,核扩散危机也基本得到消除。这不仅有效地捍卫了国际核不扩散体制,而且在实践上也是对国际核不扩散机制的补充和发展,对人类社会的和平与安全也是重大的贡献。当朝鲜和伊朗核问题屡成危机而长期困扰国际社会时,我们重温这段历史,也具有深刻的现实意义。     

IR Teaching Reloaded: Using Films and Simulations in the Teaching of International Relations

This article reflects some experiences in teaching International Relations (IR) by using films to supplement the use of simulations and role play scenarios. The authors have used simulations and role play scenarios in order to teach complex issues and theories, and to engage the interest of students. By using films to supplement the use of simulations in classrooms, it is suggested that students become more active in their own learning. A number of ways in which simulations and role play can be used in teaching are established here alongside an array of films that can be shown to students to complement such teaching approaches. The use of films to teach IR theory is also listed. It is concluded that the use of simulations, role play, and films in teaching IR can aid student learning especially in terms of IR theory.     

冷战后中国—东盟关系的英国学派分析

本文首先对英国学派的国际社会理论进行了梳理,详细分析了国际体系、国际社会和世界社会的关系,并用此分析冷战后的中国—东盟关系。本文认为中国—东盟之间还没有形成成熟的国际社会,主要依据有:两者缺乏共同的核心价值观,两者关系的机制化程度不高。所以,要改善中国与东盟的关系,至少做到:加强中国与东盟的跨文化交流,真正发挥双边国际制度的作用。     

从战略的高度看东亚合作与中日安全关系

冷战后,东亚地区各国在安全保障与经济合作以及非传统安全等问题上,形成了相互竞争与相互合作的新格局。中日之间在安全保障以及能源环境等问题上的矛盾与合作关系,集中反映了本地区安全问题的复杂性和紧迫性。如何通过加强多国间的政治对话解决区域内的政治与安全问题,通过共同开发与合作,有效地发挥各国在资金、技术和资源方面的互补性,逐步形成有向心力、平等合作、互补互利的地区安全与经济合作机制,是构筑合作与共生的东亚国际政治经济新秩序的关键所在。     

美印战略伙伴：进展、问题和前景

冷战结束后 ,美印关系的进展引人注目。通过 1998年后的战略对话和最高领导人的互访 ,以及 9 11后两国关系的转型 ,到今年年初双方宣布“下一步战略伙伴”倡议 ,双边关系进入一个新的高度。基于共同的价值和利益 ,华盛顿和新德里在经济和安全领域开展了前所未有的合作。但在双边关系不断升温的同时 ,两国在一系列国际问题上仍存在分歧。美印战略伙伴是暂时现象 ,还是会进一步走向战略同盟 ?这值得我们关注和准备必要的应对措施。     

日本强化安保战略与东北亚安全

当前,日本进一步强化安保战略,主要举措包括强化国家安全保障会议的“司令塔”功能,完善自卫队的体制建设,加强导弹防御能力,加强岛屿防卫能力,加强海洋安保能力,提升岛屿作战能力,谋求“先发制人”打击力,谋求自卫队合宪,强化日美安保同盟,扩展对外安全合作,推广“印太战略”等。日本安保战略的强化呈现否定二战后“非军事化”、追求威慑力、谋求“塑造力”等特点。日本强化安保战略的目的在于实现“军事大国化”以及夺取地区安保主导权,适应美国对日本政策的变化以及应对朝核问题与“中国威胁”等。日本强化安保战略必将对东北亚安全产生深刻影响。首先,日本军事能力增强,其在可以行使集体自卫权的框架下谋求“先发制人”的能力,将改变美日安全关系中的“矛”与“盾”格局,日本将在东北亚地区扮演更多的安全角色,必将影响东北亚的安全结构。其次,日本强化安保战略的举措刺激朝鲜的“安全神经”,不仅不利于朝核问题的解决,还会进一步加剧东北亚安全形势的紧张。再次,日本在反导系统上与美国捆绑,加深地区安全困境,不利于东北亚安全互信的构建。日本应与中国一道为地区和平与稳定多做积极贡献。     

Negotiating Military Alliances: Legal Systems and Alliance Formation

Do domestic legal systems affect states' propensity to form military alliances? This article, building upon the existing research in international relations, adopts a socio-legal approach to understanding international treaty making. By focusing on the essence of international negotiations—communication between states' representatives—I argue that negotiating parties who share a common legal language have a common a priori understanding concerning concepts under discussion. Domestic laws operating within states impact the process of creation of international law embodied in treaties. Empirical analyses show that states with similar legal systems are more likely to form military alliances with one another. Additionally, domestic legal systems influence the way that states design their alliance commitments. In general, my findings suggest that the influence of domestic laws does not stop at “the water's edge.” It permeates the interstate borders and impacts the relations between states, especially the treaty negotiating and drafting process. International negotiators bring their legal backgrounds to the negotiating table, which influences both their willingness to sign treaties and the design of the resulting agreements.     

Promise and Performance: An Evaluation of Journals in International Relations

What kind of international relations research gets published in the field's most recognized journals? Who are its authors? This study investigates the subject matter, methodology, and origin of recent research published in top international relations journals, building on earlier work that has investigated the contents of journals. This study investigates the contents of three international relations journals— International Studies Quarterly , International Organization , and World Politics — which have been consistently ranked as the top three journals in international relations. Data are for the ten most recent completed volume years, 1995–2004. This study finds that international relations scholarship in these three journals focuses on a relatively narrow range of subjects and is produced by a rather homogeneous group of scholars.     

构建中国与土耳其新型战略合作关系

中国和土耳其两国在1971年建立外交关系,但在20世纪七八十年代冷战的背景下,中土关系处于一种低水平状态。冷战结束后,两国关系的发展出现了前所未有的势头。2010年10月,中国和土耳其宣布正式建立和发展战略合作关系。这种战略合作关系并非空洞的外交辞令,而是具有丰富的实质性内容。作为两个发展中的地区大国,中国和土耳其双方均着眼于未来,希望在国际舞台上发挥与各自政治、经济和军事力量相称的作用。在埃及、利比亚、叙利亚等阿拉伯国家发生剧烈动荡后,土耳其在中东地区的重要性更进一步凸显。随着中东和中亚在中国对外战略中地位的上升,土耳其在中国外交中的地位会更加重要。     

日印近期强化战略合作的深层背景与影响

近期在中日关系因钓鱼岛争端而趋于紧绷之时,日印战略合作在不断深化全球战略伙伴关系基础上再度纵深发展。双方在民用核能、能源安全、经济贸易、战略安全与军事情报、推行价值观外交与构建海洋同盟等领域展开全面合作。日印关系的快速升温并非偶然,而是与亚太地区的权势转移与战略态势的急剧变化密切相关。尽管日印防务合作要达到战略同盟级也还很遥远,日印强化战略合作的具体影响还要更多的通过观察来确定,但日印全球战略伙伴关系持续走向深入,特别是军事合作趋于深化对中国周边安全环境的影响仍不能不令人警惕。     

An Autocracy at War: Explaining Egypt's Military Effectiveness, 1967 and 1973

In the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt shocked the world with its atrocious performance in battle, only to stun the world again with its remarkable military turnaround in the October 1973 war. Existing studies, which emphasize culture, social structure, and regime type, have a difficult time explaining why this single autocratic state, in such a short period of time, exhibited such extremes in its military competence. None can explain both why Egypt performed so poorly in 1967 and improved so significantly in 1973. Other explanations such as military strategy and learning explain the puzzle in part, but they alone cannot account for the outcome. This article presents a theory that accounts for the divergence in effectiveness, focusing on underlying differences in the fabric of the autocratic regime. It argues that changes in the balance of civil-military power in the state—born from more fundamental differences in domestic politics in the autocracy—shaped three areas of military activity critical to military effectiveness: strategic assessment, command, and control, and leadership. In developing this argument, the article both contributes to growing scholarship on the sources of states' military effectiveness and explains why Egypt's performance varied so significantly in these historically consequential wars.     

第二次世界大战结束前日俄、日苏关系的特点

第二次世界大战前的日俄、日苏关系是影响东亚地区国际关系格局的重要双边关系。在日本明治维新以前日俄关系具有西方殖民列强与亚洲闭关锁国的封建国家之间关系的特点，总体态势是“俄攻日守”。明治维新到十月革命前的日俄关系具有老牌的殖民主义列强与新兴殖民主义列强之间关系的特点，日俄在东亚既有争夺，又有合作，日本逐渐占了上风。十月革命后日苏关系既有社会主义国家和帝国主义国家之间的关系、邻国关系的特点，又有较为浓厚的欧洲国家和亚洲国家之间关系的特点。这时期，两国之间始终未能建立真正的信赖关系，经历了“日攻苏守”到“苏攻日守”的转变过程。