西方“技术联盟”:构建新科技霸权的战略路径

新一轮科技革命与产业变革正在深入发展,科技正成为大国战略竞争的主战场。围绕科技发展与应用之规则、标准、体系等因素的竞争,将直接影响到国际战略的权力结构与国际体系的重塑。基于"技术多边主义"战略,美国将与其伙伴国家围绕高科技领域组建"技术联盟",共同制定全球科技发展与治理的新规则、新标准,进而实现对新科技塑造权力的掌握。随着西方"技术联盟"框架体系日渐成型,全球力量结构、国际格局与国际体系都将受到深刻影响。     

Coup-Proofing and Military Inefficiencies: An Experiment

Coup-proofing occurs when a leader arranges his military to prevent military leaders from overthrowing him. However, coup-proofing often has the additional effect of lowering the military’s effectiveness in conflict. This article discusses coup-proofing in the context of the Nouri al-Maliki’s regime in Iraq before presenting two formal models. The first model shows when coups are possible, leaders select military commanders with lower ability but higher loyalty. The second model shows that when coups are possible, leaders rotate their military commanders to prevent any one commander from becoming too powerful. The article then presents experimental tests of the models. The results of these laboratory experiments show that leaders are more likely to select loyal commanders or rotate their commanders under the coup treatment relative to groups with no leadership turnover or with leadership turnover according to elections. Thus, when faced with the possibility of a coup, leaders intentionally lower their military effectiveness. This article captures the dynamics behind a fundamental inefficiency introduced into groups when leadership is valuable, delegation is necessary, and powerful subordinates can remove the leader from office.     

Democratization and Civilian Control of the Military in Taiwan

Over the last 20 years, Taiwan has witnessed an impressive transition from authoritarian one-party rule to liberal democracy. This included considerable changes in the relations between the civilian political elites and the armed forces. While under the emergency laws of the authoritarian regime the military had been a powerful political force, during democratization the elected civilians have managed to curb military political power and have successively widened their influence over former exclusively military prerogatives. This article argues that the development of Taiwan's civil–military relations can be explained as the result of civilians using increasingly robust strategies to enhance their influence over the military. This was made possible by a highly beneficial combination of historical conditions and factors inside and outside the military that strengthened the political power of the civilian elites and weakened the military's bargaining power. The article finds that even though partisan exploitation of civilian control instruments could potentially arouse civil–military conflict in the future, civil–military relations in general will most likely remain supportive of the further consolidation of Taiwan's democracy.     

和平不是必然:对当前国际安全与战争问题的战略反思

2015年是人类空前的浩劫——第二次世界大战结束70周年。二战的破坏可谓空前,但其是否绝后,却还有待观察与思考。正如我们可以把战争分为"热战"与"冷战"一样,和平同样也可分为"冷和平"(假和平)与"真和平"。"冷和平"是一种非常不稳定的国际关系状态,"冷和平"容易给人以和平的假象,以为和平就是必然的,战争离我们很远,从而使得某些中小国家容易"任性",大国容易缺乏包容,低端政治问题容易"越位",这反而容易酿成真正的大危机与大危险。近期西方战略学者发出的"基辛格之忧"与"哈斯之问"也反映了对"冷和平"的忧虑。国际社会如果对"冷和平"状态认识不够、处置不当,则有可能导致国际战争的再现与和平的终结。从历史、现实、未来三个维度,结合中国的国家安全与大国博弈的背景,对国际安全与战争问题做战略思考,可以发现:从历史维度来看,人们对国际战争的认识经历了一个历史过程;从现实维度来看,当前中小国家"任性"乱为,大国博弈暗流涌动,"冷和平"状态令人担忧;从未来维度来看,中美关系与中日关系是影响中国国家安全的最重要的大国关系因素,也是中国对国际战争问题进行战略思考与未来展望时所无法回避的。中国要妥善谨慎地处理好中美关系与中日关系,未来爱好和平的中国将会成为遏制国际战争的重要力量。     

Peace at a Price: Strategic Studies of Current International Security and War Issues

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the end of the World War II and the victory of the Anti-Fascist War. The WWII is an unprecedented disaster for humanity and, however, it can never be guaranteed that world wars will not break out again in the future. Just as wars can be classified as cold wars and hot wars, peace can also be defined as cold peace and real peace. Cold Peace, as an unstable state in the international relations, may bring misleading perception of peace, where peace is taken for granted, and potential crises may lead to international conflicts/ wars. This is clearly reflected in concerns of western scholars as exemplified by what is called Kissinger’s Worry and Haass’s Question. This paper approaches the question from a strategic and historical perspective and draws the following three conclusions: 1) historically, it takes a long time for people to realize the negative impacts of wars; 2) currently, we are in a dangerous stage of cold peace in terms of international security; 3) the Sino-US and Sino-Japanese relations will be crucial to the major power relations that affect China’s the national security in the future. China should find ways to deal with the two major relations and play its role in maintaining the world peace.     

Defensive development,combative contradictions: towards an international political sociology of global militarism in Africa

ABSTRACT

Drawing on international political sociology, this article shows how the merger of development and security has become part of the ideational architecture that facilitates a new ‘feel-good’ militarism in Africa. Contemporary international reform efforts are designed to restrain military power in the name of development, democracy and civilian oversight, but also to strengthen the coercive capacities of African security institutions and make them more efficient in the global fight against violent extremism. Such defensive development efforts have implications for the historically problematic relationship of the African state with modern forms of organised force, reconfiguring and recalibrating relations and dynamics between the state, military forces and external actors. The article concludes that defensive development is fraught with combative contradictions and risks becoming the handmaiden not only of increased militaristic violence, but also of oppression and the restriction of freedom and democracy.     

How International Reputation Matters: Revisiting Alliance Violations in Context

We investigate the role of international reputation in alliance politics by developing a signaling theory linking past alliance violations with the formation of future alliance commitments. In our theory, past violations Are useful signals of future alliance reliability conditional on whether they effectively separate reliable from unreliable alliance partners. It follows that states evaluating potential alliance partners will interpret past violations in their context when deciding to enter a new alliance, attaching less weight to violations in “harder times,” when many states are defaulting on their alliance commitments together, and more weight to violations in “easier times,” when fewer states are defaulting on their alliances. We test our theory and find that states are empirically more likely to form new alliances with states that violated in harder times compared to states that violated in easier times. The results have important implications for how scholars understand and estimate the impact of international reputation.     

Transatlantic trade and monetary relations: The nature and limits of conflict

The furore that greeted news that negotiations were to start on a transatlantic free trade agreement revealed not only the potential importance of any putative deal, but also the tendency of Europeans to view international politics almost uniquely in economic terms. This neglect of security and broader geostrategic issues is short-sighted and dangerous. It is precisely the liberal world order in place since the Second World War that has allowed Europeans to develop their economic potential. Leaving it to the United States to preserve that order is an increasingly problematic strategy, with the US ever more reluctant to police the world in the way it once did. The US has, for many years, asked its partners to contribute more to the preservation of common security interests. Given the failure of these attempts to date, it might be time for Washington to resort to tougher tactics in an attempt to entice Europeans out of their geostrategic retirement.     

Inequality Amid Equality: Military Capabilities and Conflict Behavior in Balanced Dyads

Studies of power parity and conflict implicitly assume all balanced dyads are created equal. However, variation exists within the capabilities of the states in these particular dyads. I address the question of what affects the likelihood of conflict onset within relatively balanced dyads. I argue uncertainty—in particular the uncertainty of the expected costs of conflict—determines the likelihood of conflict among these dyads. More uncertainty of costs means a greater likelihood of miscalculation leading to bargaining errors. First, I argue as an opponent’s capabilities increase, uncertainty of costs increase and the likelihood of conflict increases. Second, military action serves a purpose in bargaining and can help reduce uncertainty by signaling a state’s willingness to inflict and endure costs in order to gain a better settlement. Third, information transmission is likely to be effective only when states have the capability to inflict significant costs. As such, while greater capabilities will lead to a high likelihood of conflict onset, they also lead to a reduced likelihood of conflict escalation. The testing of nondirected dyads from 1946 to 2001 supports the theory’s implications.     

反恐时代的美国军事制度改革 ——从唐纳德?拉姆斯菲尔德到罗伯特?盖茨

九一一事件以后,面对风谲云诡的国际环境,小布什政府开启了一个军事制度改革的时代。在长达十余年的时间里,唐纳德?拉姆斯菲尔德和罗伯特?盖茨持续不断地推动美国军事制度的改革,试图满足美国反恐战争的要求。拉姆斯菲尔德在就任国防部长期间,积极推动美军转变军事学说,改革美军组织结构和国防部的制度形式,调整军政关系,强化文官对军队的控制。另外,美国还广泛利用最新的信息技术,大力推动网络中心战。盖茨就任国防部长后,致力于处理拉姆斯菲尔德遗留的问题,继续推动美国的军事制度改革。他推动美国军事力量的再平衡,调整陆军的官僚体制,革新陆军文化,改革国防部的商业模式,并针对中国和伊朗等国家的“反介入”和“区域拒止”战略提出了“空海一体战”理念。尽管在拉姆斯菲尔德和盖茨的军事制度改革过程中遭遇了一些阻力,但是其改革仍然取得了显著的效果,深刻地改变了美国的军事制度,影响到未来美国军事制度变革的趋势。     

构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧,维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系,对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角,中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面,中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制,逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识,推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺,从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面,中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果,构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略,确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力,是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

国际和国家安全视角下的美国“星链”计划及其影响

星链计划是美国太空探索计划公司(Space X)提出的一项太空高速互联网通信计划,初衷是在地球的近地轨道建设卫星互联系统,进而为全球提供高速的互联网服务。然而,在星链计划的发展过程中,不断闪现着美国政府与军方的身影。星链计划发展也对应着美国太空安全战略转型的新模式,其目的在于实现由美国技术主导的、全覆盖的新一代全球卫星互联网通信系统。从技术和市场竞争层面上看,星链计划的实施对现存的5G通信技术和未来的天基互联网系统将产生重大的冲击和影响。从深层次的国际和国家安全角度看,星链计划背后依托的是美国高度成熟的军民融合体系和太空安全战略转型,将从国防、产业价值链、信息主权与监管、轨道与频谱资源使用、太空空间利用和天文探索等方面,对国际安全及其他国家的安全构成复合型、交叉型新挑战。     

Human Security and Constructivism

This article explores the concept of "human security" as an academic and fledgling policy movement that seeks to place the individual—or people collectively—as the referent of security. It does this against a background of evolving transnational norms relating to security and governance, and the development of scientific understanding that challenges orthodox conceptions of security. It suggests that human security is not a coherent or objective school of thought. Rather, there are different, and sometimes competing, conceptions of human security that may reflect different sociological/cultural and geostrategic orientations. The article argues that the emergence of the concept of human security—as a broad, multifaceted, and evolving conception of security—rreflects the impact of values and norms on international relations. It also embraces a range of alliances, actors, and agendas that have taken us beyond the traditional scope of international politics and diplomacy. As a demonstration of change in international relations, of evolving identities and interests, this is best explained with reference to "social constructivist" thought, in contradistinction with the structural realist mainstream of international relations. In a constructivist vein, the article suggests that empirical research is already building a case in support of human security thinking that is, slowly, being acknowledged by decision-makers, against the logic of realist determinism.     

Sino-Russia Relations Towards Comprehensive and Strategic Cooperation

The Sino-Russia relation is a kind of new state-relationship,which is based on the long-term political,economic and security interests of the people of two countries.Mutual respect,equality,and mutual benefit are the basis of this relationship.China and Russia should strengthen regional cooperation and cultural exchanges so that the bilateral relations can be consolidated further.President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia opens up new opportunities for pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia.     

从话语危机到安全危机：机理与应对

语言影响人们的思维和认知,是人与人、国与国之间交流和沟通的媒介,也是安全研究的重要维度。特定的话语可塑造威胁身份,叙述危机故事,对言语对象制造话语障碍,形成话语压力,建构话语危机,影响相关政策,使特定问题安全化,并影响安全程度的高低,导致不同的安全政策,甚至助推战争。中国在近三十年来一直面临来自西方世界的话语压力,在国际舆论场中经常陷入不利境地,有时由于某个话题成为舆论焦点,遭遇话语危机,如“中国威胁论”“中国强硬论”“中国威胁南海航行自由”“中国威胁世界秩序”以及中美“修昔底德陷阱”等。中国成为世界第二大经济体后日益成为世界关注的焦点,中国亟须研究和应对话语压力和话语危机。中国需要加大世界发声力度,提高话语主动性和自觉性;加大中国文化理念的国际宣传,重塑中国话语的国际语境;努力提升国际话语权;避免话语与行为的盲目自大,避免不必要的话语攻击和误解、有针对性地做好美国关于中国话语的改善工作。只有这样,才能够减少话语障碍和话语压力,有效缓解和化解话语危机。这是为中国塑造良好外部环境、提升中国国际形象、使中国与世界的互动更加顺畅的重要条件。     

US Middle East policy after 9/11: Implications for transatlantic relations

The EU's agenda in promoting multilateralism faces a few challenges in the eastward direction. The Caspian Sea basin, which has been acquiring increasing importance for the EU in the context of energy, above all gas, supplies from the Caucasus and Central Asia, represents a complex mix of states with different histories, identities, regimes, centres of gravity and regional ambitions. Unlike the Black Sea basin, where the EU has developed the Black Sea Synergy policy, none of the Caspian littoral states is an EU member and this has led to a lack of EU interest in and commitment to the promotion of multilateralism in the area. Thus, in spite of significant energy security interests, the EU lacks the will, the capacity or the consistency to address regional security issues or promote reform. Indeed, economic interests are inevitably likely to clash with the reform promotion objective.     

国际安全制度与总体国家安全：一种理论分析

一国的总体国家安全虽然涉及方方面面,但国内政治和国际政治是贯穿这些领域的两条主线。国际安全制度构成了维护各领域国家安全的重要依托：国际安全制度能够塑造各国国家安全的外部环境,影响不同领域的国家安全利益,促进不同领域的国际安全合作,从而有利于实现各国的总体国家安全。二战结束以来,主权平等、不干涉内政和不使用武力解决国际争端等基本原则已经大大改善了全球安全环境,构成中小国家主权独立和国家安全的重要保障。同时,普遍性的国际安全原则和规范也可以应用到各个具体领域的安全规则的构建,从而直接影响各国维护相关领域国家安全的能力与利益。多边安全联盟会带来高水平的国际安全合作,促进联盟成员的总体国家安全,但也可能减损其他国家的安全水平,从而导致冲突。纯粹的区域性集体安全制度在提升各成员国家安全水平的同时,也具有合作安全和共同安全的优点。各国应该积极参与国际安全制度的构建,并有效运用国际安全制度提升本国的国家安全水平。     

美国对国际核秩序的侵蚀与弱化

美国是国际核秩序的主要创建者、参与者和受益者,维持稳定的国际核秩序符合美国的安全利益。但是,出于战争制胜型核战略、意识形态、盟友关系、地缘政治等方面的战略考量,美国在维持、巩固国际核秩序的过程中,也对国际核秩序造成侵蚀与弱化。美国仍然把核武器置于其国家安全战略的重要位置,重视战术核武器的作用,研发低当量核武器和钻地核弹,模糊了核武器与常规武器的界限,降低了核武器的使用门槛,侵蚀了核价值观。美国追求绝对核优势,部署全球导弹防御系统,研发全球即时打击系统,违反国际核规范与印度进行核能合作,弱化核禁忌等做法,不利于大国之间的战略稳定性,破坏了核规范。在防扩散领域,美国一贯奉行双重标准,缺乏全局观念,对他国进行安全威胁,刺激了核扩散。为维护国际核秩序,美国应从维护全球和平与稳定的长远考虑出发,降低核武器在国家安全战略中的作用,减少缩小核武器的使用范围,停止部署全球范围内的导弹防御系统,放弃防扩散的双重标准,推动核价值观、核规范和核不扩散体制向着更加完善的方向演进,保证国际核秩序平稳、有效运行。     

核事故、能源结构调整与国际气候合作

福岛核事故将对各国能源结构调整和国际气候合作产生重大影响。从短中期来看,部分国家将对核能产业实施紧缩政策,化石能源比重可能增加,在国际气候合作中作出积极减排承诺的意愿也将降低,国际气候合作可能继续陷于僵局之中。在可预见的未来,人类需要通过追求核能安全来维护能源安全和气候安全。