U.S.-VIETNAM RELATIONS IN THE TRUMP ERA

This paper seeks to examine U.S.-Vietnam relations under the Trump administration. It will concentrate on the political, economic and security dimensions of the relationship. It will demonstrate that the Trump administration's policy towards Vietnam has many elements of Obama's policy towards Vietnam. Though President Trump has focused on the trade deficit with Vietnam, the Trump administration has worked closely with the Vietnamese government to intensify the partnership with Vietnam. It should be noted that in the context of China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, Hanoi and Washington see that it is in their mutual interests to advance their security cooperation. The last two years have witnessed the increasing partnership between Vietnam and the United States.     

新世纪以来越南对美“伙伴关系”政策评析

新世纪以来越南对美"伙伴关系"政策的提出及实施推动越美关系取得了突破性的进展,但给越中全面战略伙伴关系的稳定带来了消极影响,并造成越美在南海问题上携手制衡中国的趋势加强,导致当前南海周边地区局势愈加复杂化。未来的越美关系将在两国建立"全面伙伴关系"的框架下尝试进行带有结盟性质的合作,受此影响,未来越中关系有可能演变成为长期的"经热政冷"格局。     

Changing roles: China and the United States in East Asian security

Since the end of the cold war, many changes have been occurring in the East Asian strategic landscape. As the two most significant elements of the East Asian security equation, China and the United States share a special obligation to secure the present and future stability in the West Pacific. Both countries have to adjust their respective roles in response to the changing strategic environment: while China should take a more cooperative stance on regional security issues, the United States should be more sensitive and accommodative to regional demands. There exist several scenarios for the future of Sino-American relations, but it is desirable and possible for Beijing and Washington to form a constructive partnership with security cooperation as one underpinning pillar.     

The United States, Germany and France: Balancing Transatlantic Relations

Relations between the United States, France and Germany significantly determine the content and structure of the broader transatlantic relationship. Relations improved after the changes of government in Germany in 2005 and France in 2007, and they can be expected to improve further after the change of administration in the United States in 2009. Washington is likely to pay more attention to its European allies while these may become more involved in issues beyond Europe's borders. Sharing leadership will be the challenge for the United States, while bringing more intellectual and material input will be the challenge for the Europeans. At the same time, France and Germany will develop and maintain independent views. But if partnership is the aim on both sides of the Atlantic, a more promising relationship can be expected even where differences exist.     

America's Rebalance to Asia and its Implications for Japan-US-Australia Security Cooperation

How does America's greater focus on Asia impact the security policies of Japan and Australia? How does it change the nature of the Japan-US-Australia security partnership? This paper attempts to answer these questions by looking at Japanese and Australian responses to the Obama Administration's new security policy toward Asia called “rebalancing.” After examining them, it argues that the regional allied response to America's new security posture has generated greater momentum for both allies to collaborate in wider areas in a more timely and effective way than before. It concludes asserting that, in the era of rebalance, Japan, the United States, and Australia have not only deepened their existing cooperation, but also have expanded potential areas of cooperation toward a more “dynamic” partnership.     

The uncertain future of US‐China relations

The coming months may be critical in determining whether it will be possible for the United States and China to forge a stable and productive relationship, says Harry Harding, Dean of the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. Problems are mounting in several sensitive areas of the relationship: human rights, trade, and security, and there remain differences between the two countries over Taiwan and Korea that could bedevil their bilateral ties. Furthermore, American critics of China are resuming their attacks on the relationship, charging that engagement has failed either to narrow differences or to promote common objectives. Harding argues that the benefits of the US‐China relationship are so great, and the costs of failure so large, that the two countries should make every effort to maintain the momentum toward building a constructive strategic partnership.     

俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。     

Japan as America’s global partner: Problems and prospects

The concept of global partnership remains a central theme in the conduct of U.S.-Japan relations in the post-Cold War world. This article critically evaluates Japan’s performance and potential as a global partner for the United States. It notes the qualified outcomes to Japan’s extended quest for a world role, its inability to lead by example in world trade and its preference for international status and contributions as a substitute for international political leadership. On the other hand the article recognizes the increasing significance of Japan’s human contribution to international peacekeeping, its willingness to tackle global problems in cooperation with the United States, and its potential to reduce security costs in Asia by means of foreign aid allocations, increased host-nation support for American forces and by promoting regional security dialogue. The article highlights Japan’s emerging identity as an Asian power and the problem of diverging U.S. and Japanese perspectives on democracy in the region. At the same time, it acknowledges the crucial importance Japan attaches to the continued American military presence in Asia and its desire to insulate the U.S.-Japan security relationship from economic and trade friction. The article concludes with the observation that Japan’s ability and willingness to operate as a global partner of the United States is much greater in some areas than in others. She is the co-author ofThe Political Economy of Agricultural Protection in Northeast Asia: East Asia in International Perspective (Allen and Unwin, 1986).     

David Marr's ‘Vietnamese anticolonialism’

Abstract

Because of its legendary resistance against the United States and its struggle for national salvation, Vietnam has entered into the consciousness of progressive mankind and has begun to attract the attention of foreign historians. In the United States, the war of aggression waged by the U.S. government has been costly in lives and property and has seriously weakened the country in all aspects, leading to the increasing opposition among the American people to the war. While protesting against the policy of the U.S. government of continuing and widening its aggression in Vietnam, for the purpose of defending America's honor and to fight for their democratic rights and economic livelihood, the American people from all walks of life have been building a friendly relationship with the Vietnamese people. Because of this reason, the American people would like to have a better understanding of the land and people of Vietnam, past and present. However, in the United States “the study of Vietnamese anti-colonial movements has been largely the preserve of the political scientist, the practicing journalist, and the intelligence specialist.” Since nearly all of these people have conducted their research according to strict political guidelines from the White House and the Pentagon, they have ignored the historical truth in an effort to justify present-day American neo-colonialism. Despite these limitations, Marr's Vietnamese Anticolonialism is one of the first historical studies published in the United States which makes a larger contribution to America's understanding of the Vietnamese struggle for freedom and independence, and thereby shows that the present U.S. war of aggression is doomed to failure.     

Distrusted Partnership: Unpacking Anti-Americanism in Turkey

The decline of US-Turkey relations has been one of the most striking developments within NATO and the broader Western alliance. This article sheds light on this distrusted partnership by studying anti-American sentiment in Turkish public opinion since the Arab uprisings of the 2010s. Employing a typology of anti-Americanisms introduced by Keohane and Katzenstein, it examines views of the United States and US-Turkey relations in the Turkish media and among the public, and it explores the conditions under which the declining relations could be reset. In particular, it shows how the ruling Justice and Development Party exploits anti-US opinion, the Turkish media's role, the stances of Turkish opposition groups, and the long-term consequences for the strained bilateral relationship.     

China's Anti-encirclement Struggle

Abstract

Confronted during the first decade of the twenty-first century with the rapidly burgeoning US-Indian security partnership and then by the emergence of the India-Japan security relationship, Beijing struggled to respond. After initially attempting to court India away from a too-close partnership with the United States in the first half of the decade, Beijing shifted to a more coercive approach around the end of 2005. One key mechanism used to pressure India was psychological war waged via the Internet raising the possibility of another Sino-Indian war. As China shifted from a soft to a hard-line approach toward India, policy toward Japan was moving in the opposite direction. After keeping relations with Japan in the freezer during the early part of the decade, around 2006, Beijing shifted gear and adopted a much more conciliatory approach. The authors hypothesize that these simultaneous shifts in Sino-Indian and Sino-Japanese relations were not coincidence but predicated instead on an understanding that simultaneous efforts to pressure Japan and India could drive those countries further together.     

“A disagreement between allies”: The United Kingdom,the United States,and the Soviet-Japanese territorial dispute, 1945–1956

Russian-Japanese relations are frozen in time by their territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands. In untangling the dispute, scholars have studied the history of Russo-Japanese relations, the USSR’s annexation of the islands in 1945, and the role of the United States as the USSR’s erstwhile wartime ally and Japan’s postwar partner. The United Kingdom, a key player in 1945, has been neglected in these studies. This article analyzes the evolution of the British position on the Soviet-Japanese territorial dispute from 1945 to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1956. The article reveals the marked divergence in this position from that of the United States, proceeding from a disagreement over the interpretation of the 1945 Yalta Agreement. In addition, the article highlights the manipulation of the territorial dispute by the United States to further its own political and security objectives and the British reaction to these maneuvers. Her recent publications includeBack in the USSR: Russia’s Intervention in the Internal Affairs of the Former Soviet Republics and the Implications for United States Policy Toward Russia (with Pamela Jewett) (John F. Kennedy School of Government, 1994).     

Redeeming the Warrior: Myth‐making and Australia's Vietnam Veterans

In late 1960s a powerful myth developed in the United States that Vietnam veterans were spat on when they returned home. A parallel myth survives in Australia with widespread claims that paint or even blood was routinely thrown at returning soldiers. In a 1966 incident, red paint was thrown on Lieutenant Colonel Alex V. Preece as he led the First Battalion through Sydney. The Australian myth remains central to perceptions of Australian Vietnam veterans as despised outsiders and feeds into contemporary demands that Australians support their soldiers and the wars in which they are involved. This paper explores connections between cultural politics in the Unites States and Australia, particularly as they pertain to the contentious legacies of the 1960s.     

The Atlantic economy after German unification: Cooperation or the rise of ‘Fortress Europe’

With the end of the cold war and the weakening of the security bond between Europe and the United States, economic relations assume increasing importance. As Europe's dominant economic power, Germany has a central role in the management of the trans‐Atlantic economy. This analysis of economic relations between Germany and the United States shows that whilst investment flows between the two economies suggest common interests and mutual dependence, the structure of German and American trade reveals a strong potential for conflict. Moreover, the experience of the 1980s suggests that economic ties between Germany and the United States are not sufficiently intense to guarantee unconditional cooperation in the management of the Atlantic economy. Divergence in macroeconomic policy has inevitably led to tensions over trade, exchange rates and interest rates. Unless this tendency is checked, the result will be the emergence of ‘Fortress Europe’ with a heightened potential for conflict with the United States.     

越南西原的民族分裂势力及越之对策

越南西原的民族分裂问题是越南三大民族分裂问题中最严重的一个.法国的殖民统治催生了越南西原地区民族分离主义,而美国则支持和豢养了西原民族分裂势力.以"福洛"组织为首的西原民族分裂势力在越南国内外进行的以建立独立自治的"德伽国"为目的的民族分裂活动对越南的国家安全产生了严重影响.     

Strategic Reassessments: Aid and Bureaucracy in Australia-India Relations 1951–1970*

Australia-India relations during the Cold War years were tense. The dominant argument in the current literature that explains this tension is the Nehru-Menzies dissonance, which resulted in fundamentally opposite readings of the Cold War. However, the role of Australian aid to India has been understudied in the bilateral relations literature. India was the largest receiver of Australian aid between 1951–1969, but in 1969, there was a marked decrease in this aid as Indonesia replaced India as the main aid recipient. By drawing on archival material, this article suggests an additional explanation for the dramatic change to the Australia-India relationship. By examining the role of Australian ministers and senior bureaucrats, this paper argues that between 1951–1969, Australia’s aid to India was driven by its strategic interests in India. However, by 1966 Australia’s strategic interests in India became tenuous due to the souring of United States-India relations, primarily because of the stresses of the Vietnam War. Thus, a sizeable cut in Australian aid to India was made in 1969 and the subsequent decision to make Indonesia the foremost beneficiary of its aid was a result of strategic reassessments in Australian foreign policy, to adhere more closely to United States (US) interests in Asia.     

2011年中欧关系的回顾与展望

2011年,中欧关系在欧洲债务危机中稳定发展。中欧贸易保持良好增长,双方在经贸领域的法律合作加深,但分歧和争端犹存;中欧科技领域的合作继续深化,中欧政治交往呈现多层次和宽领域的特点;中欧公众相互认知的鸿沟有所加大,但社会合作进展平稳,文化交流逐渐走向战略性和常态化;中国与中东欧国家务实合作得到加强,中欧战略伙伴关系进一步深化。总体来看,中欧关系的发展前景良好,但在一些传统领域的分歧仍然存在,并将持续对中欧关系产生负面影响。     

中美关系和亚太地区的“双领导体制”

21世纪初以来,中美关系和亚太地区国际关系均发生了重大变化。随着综合国力的日益增强,中国在国际经济、贸易和金融领域中开始发挥领头羊的作用。与此同时,美国作为全球范围内唯一的超级大国,在军事、安全及政治领域仍然发挥着决定性的领导作用。中美两国在亚太地区不同领域中分别发挥领导作用的现象,即本文所说的"双领导体制"。这一"双领导体制"不仅建立了中美两国在特定领域内优势互补的发展模式,也将在一定程度上确保亚太地区在未来相当长时期内的稳定与发展。     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

America's Korea,Korea's Vietnam

Atrocities committed by American soldiers against Vietnamese civilians during the Vietnam War have once again become an issue of public debate in the United States, yet similar actions by South Korean troops fighting America's war in Vietnam remain virtually unknown in the West. The Republic of Korea (ROK) dispatched more than 300,000 combat troops to Vietnam between 1965 and 1973, but after decades of enforced silence by successive authoritarian governments, Koreans have only recently begun to grapple with the ambiguous legacy of the Vietnam War for South Korea. In the spring and summer of 2000, testimonies in the South Korean media by Korean veterans of the Vietnam War revealed for the first time detailed, extensive accounts of Korean atrocities against Vietnamese civilians. These revelations, and the controversy they triggered within South Korea, bring into bold relief the role of Koreans in America's Vietnam War and the role of the Vietnam War in the political and economic development of South Korea.