Political linguistics and events research

In an early study of the impact of defense spending on economic growth in Latin America, it was suggested that the military burden hampered growth (Lieuwen, 1962). Recent studies, however, have found the relationship to be positive (Biswas and Ram, 1986; Frederiksen and Looney, 1983). The present study differs from those by considering the relationship between “guns and growth” over time, and by looking at both the overall and externality effects of military spending. The findings demonstrate that defense spending has both positive and negative impacts on economic growth in Latin America, but that there is no net positive effect. This finding will be obscured by research designs which do not disaggregate the effects of military spending into both its size and externality components.     

Towards a Balanced and Sustainable Defense

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates defines “balance” as the critical principle of his defense strategy. This emphasizes achieving a balance between current conflicts and dangerous and more conventional wars in the future. But finding the right balance between types of war is only one form of balance. We also need to balance the nation's checkbook, and define the balance between what we spend on defense and what we can afford for the long term. Balance is not enough, our defense investments must be sustainable. Defense spending today, in inflation adjusted dollars, is at an all time high and exceeds Cold War levels. This has helped sustain the world's finest military, but the funding for this buildup and two wars has been borrowed from foreign sources. The accumulated debt and subsequent interest payments have reduced our ability to weather the current economic crisis and will drag on our economic recovery for years to come. The Obama administration must craft a grand strategy to get us out of the red—strategically and fiscally. This essay offers a set of strategy, structure and investment shifts to that end.     

Economic growth and military spending in South Africa

This study applies a statistical model to examine the overtime relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. The model is based on a neoclassical production function, and is developed and estimated for the time period 1950 to 1985. The results indicate that the size effects of military expenditure on economic growth are negative, while the externality effects of military spending are positive. In addition, decreasing foreign investment and increasing domestic unrest are found to have negative impacts on GDP growth. Labor employment is positively related to growth, but non‐white labor is more strongly significant than white labor. These results are consistent with previous cross‐section studies that find some evidence for positive and negative effects of military spending on economic growth.     

Managing the Transatlantic Gap: The Rise of Spain

Among the many frustrations hampering cooperation between Western allies is the transatlantic gap in defense capabilities. Many analysts find little reason for hope that the gap might close in the near future due to the growing differential in aggregate defense spending between the U.S. and Europe. In recent years, however, Spain set an intriguing precedent for small states entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). Defying economies of scale, Spain used progressive institutions at domestic and international levels along with creative geopolitics to engage both the U.S. and traditional powers in Europe. The result was that Spain, without dramatic increases in defense spending, still managed to narrow the transatlantic gap along vital dimensions. These included increased participation in the development of high-technology defense and aerospace systems as well as a stronger, independent voice in global affairs.     

National Security in the Post-Pandemic Era

The geopolitical implications of COVID-19 are profound in the near term, and will have a ripple effect throughout the U.S. economy and the foundations of U.S. power. It could be more strategically contagious over the longer term if it compels a sharp change in how Americans see their role in the world and adapts its conception of national security. This article presents both the economic and fiscal impact of the pandemic in the United States, as well as the likely consequences for national security investments and the Pentagon's budget. It offers three potential defense strategies, at three possible spending levels, to examine options for the next administration.     

The Political Economy of U.S. Direct Investment in East Asian NICs, 1966–2000

This paper examines the role of FDI from the United States in the economic performance of East Asian NICs for 1966–2000. To this end, we draw our argument of the role of FDI from the modernization–dependency debate. Then, we test the economic effects of U.S. direct investment on economic growth in East Asian NICs using a neoclassical production function model that captures the economic impacts of both foreign and domestic investment on economic growth. Our empirical results show that U.S. direct investment has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in East Asian NICs.     

Why the U.S. Military Budget is ‘Foolish and Sustainable’

What defense budget the United States should have and what defense budget it can afford are separate questions. The debate raging in Washington about Pentagon spending ignores the distinction. Doves insist that we need a more modest military strategy because the current one is wasteful and economically unsustainable. Hawks say that the current approach is sensible and affordable. This article takes a third path, arguing that U.S. military policy is likely to remain extravagant because it is sustainable. We adopted our current strategy—which amounts to trying to run the world with the American military—because we could, not because it was wisest. Wealth and safety make the consequences of bad defense policy abstract for most U.S. taxpayers. So we buy defense like rich people shop, ignoring the balance of costs and benefits. We conflate ideological ambition with what is required for our safety. Unfortunately, the current political demand for austerity and fewer wars will only temporarily restrain our military spending and the ambitions it underwrites.     

东南亚五国宏观调控有效性及其经济增长动力分析——基于蒙代尔—弗莱明模型

在凯恩斯理论框架下,本文根据东南亚五国经济运行基本状况运用蒙代尔-弗莱明模型对其从1970年至今的经济运行做了数量实证.随后对宏观调控政策的有效性进行了理论分析,并引入VAR模型对分析进行了验证,实证认为:适度宽松的财政和货币政策、降低利率、增加政府支出、发展国际贸易以及扩大总供给是拉动经济增长的有效手段.     

Military Power and Food Security: A Cross-National Analysis of Less-Developed Countries, 1970–1990

Addressing the long-standing debate over the social impact of military power and recent discussions of military-induced famine, we conduct a panel analysis of aggregate food supply and child hunger rates in 75–79 less-developed countries (LDCs). Distinguishing between militarization , as the growth of military resources, and militarism , as the use of military force to handle political conflicts, we show that militarization is both beneficial and detrimental to food security, whereas militarism is consistently detrimental. Arms imports and associated increased military spending plus praetorianism and military repression reduce food security, whereas increased military participation and arms production boost food security. Increased food supply reduces child hunger and is largely confined to the more developed of the LDCs. These military power effects show net economic growth, which "trickles down" to improve food supply and reduce child hunger among the more developed LDCs, reflecting the growth of global economic inequality. Contrary to views that see militarization as a single unified process, use of armed force is not strongly rooted in either praetorianism or militarization.     

印度尼西亚汽车市场的商机

印度尼西亚作为全球第四人口大国、东盟最大经济体，近年来经济一直保持快速增长。尽管受到世界金融危机、全球经济不景气的影响，印尼经济增速放缓，但依然是亚洲地区经济增长最快的国家之一，并得到越来越多的国际投资者的青睐和关注。本文在分析印尼经济增长趋势后，重点分析印尼汽车行业的产销量、市场格局和特点，结合印尼汽车市场的消费习惯，对中国汽车企业进军印尼市场提出风险提示和相应的对策。     

Aid for arms: The impact of superpower economic assistance on military spending in Sub‐Saharan Africa

This study examines the relationship between superpower economic assistance and military allocations in 25 countries of Sub‐Saharan Africa during the period 1977–1984. Using pooled time‐series regression analysis, we find that African recipients do not treat U.S. aid as fungible. Soviet economic aid, however, is found to have a positive effect on the recipient's military spending.     

Korea’s middle power activism and peacekeeping operations

This paper deals with Korea’s peacekeeping operations (PKO) activities that are important to assess its middle power activism. The numbers of Korean PKO troops lessened drastically during the period 2003–2007. The purpose of this paper’s analysis is to discover the determinants of this drastic change. For the analysis, economic growth and state budgets are classified as economic factors, while partisanship and political leadership are classified as political factors. The analysis led to the following conclusion. Regarding economic factors, the economic growth and the state and defense budget stay relatively constant and do not match the fluctuation of the PKO activities in Korea. Regarding political factors, there is no correspondence between partisanship and the PKO policy, because the liberal governments of Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun implemented different PKO policies. The political leadership factor appears to be rather significant. Both Kim Dae Jung and Lee Myung Bak eagerly seek international cooperation. In contrast, Roh Moo Hyun emphasizes self-reliance. Thus, we conclude that the political leadership factor is most likely to influence the fluctuation of PKO activities in Korea.     

The effect of alliance membership on national defense burdens, 1953–88: A test of Mancur Olson's theory of collective action

Olson and Zeckhauser (1966) offered the first theoretical explanation for variation in the defense burdens of allies. Since then, the theory of collective action (Olson, 1971 [1965]) has been extensively tested using the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Warsaw Pact (WTO). While most studies indicate that allied defense burdens (the ratio of military expenditures to gross domestic product) are correlated with economic size, this relationship has rarely been assessed for non‐allied states. Here we examine the association between national defense burdens and economic size, 1953–1988, for NATO, the WTO, the Rio Pact, and the Arab Collective Security Pact in a nested test using most of the non‐allied nations of the world as a control group. Our results generally support the theory. NATO and the Warsaw Pact consistently conform to theoretical expectations, and evidence regarding the Rio Pact, on balance, is positive. Defense burdens are not correlated with economic size within the Arab Pact, however. In addition, nations’ defense burdens are affected by the external threat, as indicated by arms races and war; but the effect of involvement in war is surprisingly small.     

Globalization,Integration, and the European Welfare State

This paper considers three challenges to the mature European welfare states posed by economic and social integration, demographic changes, and the alleged decline of state capacity in the form of fiscal extraction in an era of globalization. I argue that the experiences of the older member states in the European Union are difficult to reconcile with the common assertions that globalization necessarily leads to a “race to the bottom” where welfare spending is downsized to the lowest common denominator. I develop a set of hypotheses on plausible linkages between demographic challenges, globalization, political capacity, and welfare spending, and test the propositions in an empirical analysis of 14 European Union member states from 1983 to 1998. My empirical results suggest that economic integration does not pose a threat to European welfare states. Rather, demographic changes such as low fertility rates and the aging of the population and their political implications for political leaders’ incentives are more serious challenges for the continuation of the welfare state in Europe.     

Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

We develop a new conceptualization of political advertising effects by looking at the effect of the marginal advertising dollar during the heat of presidential campaigns. We argue that in contrast to other studies investigating effects of political ads, our approach is more apt to capture the natural environment in which political ads are encountered during a presidential campaign. We focus on the intense inundation of political ads voters are confronted with in swing states in the weeks leading up to the presidential election, and argue that it is unclear a priori whether we should expect advertising to affect vote intention in that critical circumstance. We empirically validate this hypothesis using a trove of data from the 2012 campaign: daily polling in media markets around the country, detailed data on all registered voters in the country, all TV advertisements by market and exact airtime, and the entire Twitter corpus. We find that neither overall increases in advertising spending nor partisan imbalances in spending expanded the candidates’ electorate. In fact, total Designated Market Area (DMA)-level spending significantly moderates a negative relationship between spending advantages and advantages in vote intention, suggesting a boomerang effect of additional spending late in the campaign. In closing, we discuss the ramifications of our findings for future research, and stress the importance of research tracking advertising effects.     

2007年印度卢比升值的原因、影响与对策

近年来,随着对外开放程度逐渐扩大,外国对印投资迅速增加,印度经济加速增长,外汇储备逐渐增多,扭转了印度货币卢比长期贬值的态势,但却出现短期大幅度升值的情况。这对加速增长的印度经济造成较为复杂的影响。为此印度政府采取谨慎对策,基本保持印度经济持续增长。这给印度这样的发展中国家,在全球化进程中确定适当汇率政策,保持国民经济健康持续增长,提供了某些重要启示。     

东亚电子信息产品的出口与经济增长

本文论述了东亚电子信息产业发展的历史和现状,分析了东亚电子信息产品出口与经济增长的关系, 指出东亚的经济增长过分依赖于电子信息产品的出口是导致2001年经济衰退的直接原因。     

The Effect of IMF Programs on Women’s Economic and Political Rights

Though much research has been devoted to the socioeconomic and political consequences of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs for recipient countries, little is known about the impacts of these programs on the level of respect for women’s rights. We postulate that IMF-induced policy reforms of privatization and public spending cuts, and the growing political repression and instability following the implementation of IMF programs, undermine the government’s ability and willingness to protect women’s economic and political rights. To substantiate the theoretical claims, we combine data on women’s political and economic rights with data on IMF programs for the years 1981–2004. Our findings suggest that IMF involvement is likely to deteriorate the level of respect for women’s economic rights while having no discernible effect on women’s political rights. The results further indicate that the effect of these programs is not conditioned by political regime type and economic wealth of recipient countries. One major policy implication of our findings is that the IMF should start to recognize that the conditions attached to lending programs might be implemented at the expense of women’s economic rights and that more explicit protections of women’s rights need to be included in program negotiations.     

转轨时期俄罗斯的国防工业

俄罗斯激进的经济改革引起国防工业产值急剧下降,"军转民"未取得预期效果,科研和生产骨干队伍老化,企业机器设备磨损严重,技术工艺水平停滞不前。产生这些问题的症结是投资严重不足。近年国家对国防工业投资有所增长,军品和民品产量与出口额均有增加,但多年积累的问题的解决不会一蹴而就,国防工业的振兴和腾飞尚需时日。