Electoral volatility: Issue effects and basic change in 23 post-war democracies

Growing differences between party votes in successive elections have raised the possibility that party systems are undergoing fundamental change. This cannot be settled until aggregate vote differences are separated into those normally produced by new issues and candidates, and those reflecting an erosion of core support. A saliency theory of party competition and electoral response is used to quantify net shifts in voting produced by issues identified on the basis of campaign reports. Estimates are validated by comparison with others produced on different assumptions and through their success in predicting election results in ten countries. By ‘controlling’ these issue effects we can estimate Basic Votes for each party and election and see whether they have changed.     

Sex and the genuine marriage: consummation and conjugality in Canadian citizenship

The idea of consummation as definitive of a marriage seems antiquated today. Yet, consummation operates as a central criterion in determinations of a ‘genuine marriage’ in Canadian immigration law. Drawing on the marriage and migration literature, theorizations of sexual citizenship, and critical multiculturalism, we explore recent judicial considerations of consummation in Canadian family sponsorship adjudications. We searched the CanLII database (a Canadian database of legislation and judicial records) for the keywords ‘non-consummation’ and ‘genuine marriage’ and identified 68 cases. Of these cases, three primary themes emerged: the use of consummation as a ‘technology of love’ – a requirement for assessing the authenticity of the spousal relationship and hence the worthiness of sponsorship; the discursive construction of sexual and gendered norms in expectations around marital intimacy, and the articulation of liberal tolerance and the cultural other in the assessments of genuine marriages among primarily racialized Canadians or permanent residents and their foreign spouses. We challenge these discursive narratives and conclude by arguing that instead of consummation as the basis for genuine marriage, the Law Commission of Canada’s ‘close personal relationship’ model is a better way to assess the ‘genuineness’ of relationships for determining Canadian citizenship.     

Combatting program fragmentation: Local systems of vocational education and job training

As the number of local institutions that train individuals for employment has grown, policymakers have become concerned about possible duplication and wasteful competition. Potential solutions to this perceived problem typically revolve around strategies for encouraging greater coordination among local education and training agencies. Yet little is known about either the extent of duplication in local communities or about interactions among institutions. To begin to fill this gap, we conducted comparative case studies of eight communities. We found little service overlap or competition. Instead, using a variety of mechanisms, local institutions have established clear divisions of labor and have linked themselves in well-defined, though largely informal, systems. The present study concludes with a discussion of how state and federal policy might facilitate the creation and maintenance of effective local systems of work-related education and training.     

The sources of liberal-conservative thinking: Education and conceptualization

In this study, I examine two sources of liberal-conservative thinking within the American electorate: Education and level of conceptualization. This analysis differs from previous work in at least two important ways. First, I test the impacts of education and conceptualization simultaneously. Second, I focus on the degree to which people actively use the liberal-conservative continuum to organize their perceptions of the parties and candidates. Empirical analysis of data from the 1984 CPS National Election Study confirms that education and conceptualization have roughly equivalent effects on ideological structuring in political perceptions. I discuss the implications of this finding for the study of mass belief systems and information processing within the American public.     

Policy advisory systems: change dynamics and sources of variation

The special issue aims to enhance our understanding of the conditions under which policy advisory systems vary. The contributions comprise both continental European countries (Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands) and Anglo-Saxon countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK). The introduction to the special issue briefly outlines existing scholarship on policy advisory systems and identifies different research gaps to the filling of which the special issue seeks to contribute. The introduction highlights that the articles in the special issue point to both political system and policy process variables to better systemize, theorize and explain the origins and change dynamics of policy advisory systems.     

From the horse's mouth: Luftwaffe POWs as sources for air ministry intelligence during the battle of Britain

British military intelligence as derived from the interrogation of prisoners‐of‐war (POWs) during the Second World War has been under‐valued by historians, whose attention has focused primarily on signals intelligence. While Sigint, in particular Ultra, was of undoubted value, Britain's armed services nevertheless attached much credence to POW‐derived intelligence, and by the war's end an abundance of information had been gleaned from the half a million plus Axis prisoners by then held in Britain. This article will examine the work of the Air Ministry Intelligence section known as AI1(K), which was responsible for POW interrogation, during the Battle of Britain, and attempt to illustrate both the wealth and value of such intelligence at a time when Ultra was still in its infancy.     

Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters' assignment of responsibility

Abstract.  This study analyses macroeconomic conditions and the electoral fortune of incumbents in 21 parliamentary Western countries between 1950 and 1997 in 266 national elections. Voters' assignment of responsibility for the state of the national economy is assumed to vary according to the context of the election. Building on previous research, the importance of the political context – clarity of responsibility and availability of alternatives – is analysed. The study also breaks new ground by introducing two new contexts of importance: volatility, seen from a systemic perspective, and the trend in turnout. The contextual hypothesis is confirmed. The universal economic effect as such is very weak indeed. However, given a favourable political and institutional environment (clear responsibility structure and availability of alternatives), an economic effect appears. Tests including the new contexts created on the basis of behavioural patterns in the electorate (system volatility and turnout trend) identify elections where the economic effects are even stronger.     

Political sources of growth: A critical note on measurement

This note critically reviews the research on the link between political systems and economic growth. Empirical attempts to capture this patent relationship have been met with mixed success. We conclude that the political variables used in these studies, i.e., democracy and political instability, do not adequately reflect the ‘investors problem’. We suggest that a political variable that encompasses all kinds of potential discretionary state interventions would be more effective in explaining cross-country differences in economic growth.     

Not always second order: Subnational elections,national-level vote intentions,and volatility spillovers in a multi-level electoral system

The widespread second-order view on subnational elections leaves little room for the idea that subnational election campaigns matter for national-level electoral preferences. I challenge this perspective and explore the context-conditional role of subnational election campaigns for national-level vote intentions in multi-level systems. Campaigns direct citizens’ attention to the political and economic “fundamentals” that determine their electoral preferences. Subnational election campaigns and the major campaign issues receive nation-wide media coverage. This induces all citizens in a country to evaluate parties at the national level even if they themselves are not eligible to vote in the upcoming subnational election. Thereby, subnational election campaigns may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of voters’ national-level electoral preferences throughout the country, which is reflected by a decrease in the volatility of national-level vote intentions. I explore weekly vote intention data from Germany (1992–2007) within a conditional volatility model. Subnational elections reduce uncertainty in nation-wide federal-level vote intentions for major parties. However, patterns of incumbency and coalitional shifts moderate this volatility-reducing effect.     

Public preferences about government spending: Partisan,social, and attitudinal sources of policy differences

Although the causes and consequences of the growth of government have become the focus of increasing scholarly attention, relatively little empirical research has been done about the nature and determinants of individual fiscal preferences. The present study analyzes patterns of partisan, socioeconomic, and attitudinal differentiation in public spending preferences for a variety of government functions. Two important findings emerge from our analysis. First, attitudes about the adequacy of government spending for each of the functions considered are shown to have two dimensions—a support for spending dimension and a support for change dimension. Second, the patterns of partisan and socioeconomic cleavages about government spending are shown to vary significantly across policy domains. This fracturing of demand structures, it is argued, may be one of the root causes of the performance crisis of political institutions.     

Distribution of income sources of recent retirees: findings from the New Beneficiary Survey

Using data from the New Beneficiary Survey, this article examines income received by the newly retired from assets, employer-provided pensions, and social security. Today's retirees commonly possess pension or asset income to supplement social security. The proportions with asset income were 83 percent for married men and their wives and 69 percent for the unmarried. The proportions with pension income were 56 percent for the married couples and 42 percent for the unmarried. The article finds that up through the middle of the income distribution, social security remains the main income component. In addition to these traditional income sources of the retired, the data also highlight the important role of earnings among many of the new beneficiaries--44 percent of the married couples and 27 percent of the unmarried had current earnings.     

International sources of environmental policy change in China: the case of genetically modified food

Abstract

China's agricultural biotechnology policy has undergone a profound transformation over the last decade, from a strongly promotional to a more precautionary approach. From the 1980s onwards, China invested heavily in biotechnology development and in the early 1990s emerged as the leading biotech country in the developing world. In the late 1990s, however, it halted the authorization of new genetically modified crops and introduced stringent safety regulations. This paper investigates this policy shift and argues that international factors have played a central role. Two trends, in particular, are identified as key sources of the move towards greater precaution: China's ongoing international socialization, particularly in the context of the international scientific debate on biosafety and the negotiations on a biosafety treaty; and the growing globalization of agriculture and trade, which has exposed China to international competitive forces and trade restrictions in food trade. As the case of genetically modified food in China shows, political integration and economic globalization can work together to promote a strengthening of the domestic environmental policy agenda.     

Presidential campaign expenditures: Evidence on allocations and effects

This paper analyzes the impact of presidential campaign spending on election results. Analyses of expenditures and voting are often plagued by simultaneity between campaign spending and expected vote share. However, game-theoretic models of resource-allocation decisions made by a central actor (i.e., a presidential campaign) suggest that candidates will spend more in close races and in races likely to be pivotal. We provide empirical support for this theory; using Federal Communications Commission data from the 1972 presidential election, we find that expenditures were higher in states where the election was expected to be closer and in states likely to be pivotal. We use these two factors as instruments in a two-stage least squares model to estimate the effect of spending on votes. We find that, contrary to previous theory and research, presidential campaign spending significantly increases a candidate's vote share.     

Political information processing: Question order and context effects

Data from two independent field experiments indicate that changes in question order and context may well account for an apparently precipitous decline of interest in politics at the time of the CPS 1978 American National Election Study. Evidence from a question order experiment with the SRC/CPS feeling thermometers also suggests that such contextual artifacts may not be atypical. Indeed, because of the many changes in the content and organization of the election studies over the years, context effects represent plausible rival hypotheses for a number of inexplicable shifts and trends in the time-series. In testing these hypotheses the authors derive and validate an information-processing model of how respondents infer their political states of mind from observations of their own question-answering behavior in the survey interview. In addition, the authors illustrate the wide applicability of the model tosubstantive problems in the discipline and its implications for the survey-based paradigm in political behavior research.